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Crude Oil - The price is in a correction; a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (1) of C ended, and a downward correction forms as the second wave 2 of (1) of C, within which the wave a of 2 develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of a has formed, and a local correction is developing as the fourth wave (iv) of a.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the price of the asset will fall to the area of 82.3 – 67. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 103.55.

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The shares of Meta Platforms, which owns the world's largest social network Facebook, are falling around 174.

On the daily chart, a global downtrend continues to form, within which the price moves within a sideways corridor of 155 – 180 near its lower border. On the four-hour chart, there are currently no drivers for the growth of the trading instrument, and if the quotes consolidated below the year's low of 155.8, the asset might continue to decline to 135.2. In case of an upward movement, the nearest resistance is the initial correction of 23.6% Fibonacci around 201.

Technical indicators confirm the likelihood of continuation of the current trend: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

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Silver - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level developed as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) formed, and the third wave (3) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) is developing, within which the wave (i) of i has formed, and a local correction has ended as the wave (ii) of i.

If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will grow to the area of 22.47 – 25.4. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 18.05.

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EURUSD - The head of the US Federal Reserve supported the preservation of the "hawkish" course of monetary policy

The European economy is slowing down amid reports from representatives of PJSC Gazprom about stopping the gas pumping from August 31 to September 2 due to technical work on the turbine of the Nord Stream gas pipeline. Experts doubt that infrastructure repairs will last only a few days, considering the scenario of a complete blocking of Russian energy supplies, which, in turn, will push gas prices to new record levels. Thus, according to data at the close of trading on Friday, a thousand cubic meters on the London Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cost $3,507, a maximum over the past 26 years. Also, the quotes of the EURUSD pair are under serious pressure from the dynamics of the US dollar, which set another all-time high, exceeding 109.2 in the USD Index. The reason for such strong growth was the reaction of the markets to the statements made by the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, during his speech at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole. The official noted the need to adjust the interest rate to achieve the main goal – reducing inflation and acknowledged that restoring price stability will take time and tough actions from the financial authorities. Powell added that the regulator plans to bring the rate to a stable level (2.25–2.5%), at which it will be held for some time, and investors, assuming that this level can be reached this year, have stepped up their activities.
The trading instrument is kept within the global downwards channel, falling towards the support line.

Resistance levels: 1, 1.0322 | Support levels: 0.988, 0.9660

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AUDUSD - The trading instrument develops a "bearish" momentum

Today, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported an increase in retail sales index in monthly terms by 1.3% compared to 0.2% last month and experts' forecasts of 0.3%, while the dynamics in annual terms consolidated around 16.5%. Department store sales increased the most, adding 3.8% or 67.7M dollars, while analysts estimate that sales in clothing grew by 3.3%, food by 1.2%, and cafes and restaurants — by 1.8%. The only segment that showed negative dynamics was the sale of household goods, which decreased by 1.1% or 68.8M dollars. Building permit statistics are expected to be published tomorrow, and analysts suggest that the figure will fall by another 2.0% according to the global trend. On the daily chart of the asset, the price is correcting, completing the formation of the head and shoulders reversal pattern. Technical indicators are preparing for a new reversal and have given a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6927, 0.705 | Support levels: 0.6806, 0.6681

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Digital gold under pressure after Jerome Powell's speech

The reason for the weakening of "digital gold" and, with it, the majority of alternative digital assets was the Friday comments of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. At the Jackson Hole symposium, the official said the regulator would continue to adjust interest rates even as they put pressure on economic growth. At the same time, he noted that the increase cycle could not be stopped or slowed down, although inflation could already have reached its peak. After the indicator approaches the level necessary for a sustained downward movement in consumer prices, it will linger in this area for a while and not go down. Powell's position did not live up to the expectations of investors who were counting on the possibility of a slowdown in the pace of monetary tightening in the US after the July rollback of inflation from 9.1% to 8.5%. The US Federal Reserve will continue raising rates, and the US currency will continue to receive serious support, strengthening against its main competitors.

In general, the forecast of Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz, who previously noted that the cryptocurrency market would remain under pressure for the entire period of tightening monetary policy in the United States, is justified. Currently, the trading instrument is close to 19531 (Murrey [1/8]), a downward breakdown of which will give the prospect of further decline to 18750 (Murrey [0/8]) and 17800 (the area of June lows). Bollinger bands downward reversal and MACD histogram increase in the negative zone indicate the continuation of the short-term downward trend, while Stochastic reversal in the oversold zone does not rule out corrective growth to 21093 (Murrey [3/8]), although its potential is seen as limited.

Resistance levels: 20312, 21093, 21875 | Support levels: 19531, 18750, 17800

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The shares of PayPal, the American debit payment system, are correcting around 92.

On the daily chart, the price is above the resistance line of a wide downwards channel with dynamic boundaries at 55 – 85, however, a trend change is unlikely since an attempt to overcome the local high at the beginning of the month at 102 was unsuccessful.

On the four-hour chart, it is clearly seen that also to the rebound of quotes from the local high, the formation of the reversal Head and shoulders pattern with the Neck line at 90 has almost completed, which significantly increases the prospects for decline.

Technical indicators have weakened the buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming downward bars in the buying zone.

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EURUSD - A fall is possible

On the daily chart, the downward wave of the higher level C of (B) develops, within which the fifth wave v of (C) forms. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level v of C is forming, within which the wave (v) of v of C is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.98 – 0.97. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.008.
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USDJPY - strong dollar keeps the pair from falling

Since the beginning of the week, macroeconomic releases have not put pressure on the Japanese currency: the unemployment rate in July remained at June (2.6%), and the ratio of the number of vacancies and applicants improved to 1.29 from 1.27 a month earlier, although analysts did not expect changes. Among the negative aspects, it is worth highlighting another decrease in the index of leading indicators, which amounted to 100.9 points instead of 101.2 points earlier. Tomorrow, data on the volume of industrial production for July will be published: according to forecasts, the figure will fall by 0.5% after rising by 8.9% in June, which could become a serious factor in pressure on the yen.

The US dollar retreated from yesterday's highs and trades around 108.7 in the USD Index. Investors continue to evaluate the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the economic symposium in Jackson Hole. Still, this week will be filled with statements by the heads of regional federal reserve banks, who will share their views on the prospects for national monetary policy. The local dynamics of quotations can be seriously affected by today's data on the number of open vacancies in the labor market from JOLTS, which will be published in the evening: analysts suggest that in July, the figure will decrease to 10.475M from 10.698M, which is likely to hurt the national currency. The trading instrument moves within the global uptrend, forming a Head and shoulders pattern. Technical indicators keep a buy signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range is directed upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms bars above the transition level.

Resistance levels: 139.3, 143 | Support levels: 136.7, 132.2

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NZDUSD - Trades within the global downtrend

The report of the Statistical Office of the country (Stats NZ) on job occupancy, published yesterday, reflects a stable situation in the national labor market: the number of workers in all sectors of the economy increased by 0.5% or 10.863K in July. The segment of technical services increased the most, adding 5.1%, followed by construction (4.8%), public administration (4.3%), retail (3.5%), and manufacturing (1.9%) sectors. The only area that showed negative dynamics was agriculture and the extraction of raw materials, where the number of workers decreased by 2.0% or 2.145K people.

The American currency consolidated just below 109 in the USD Index. Today, markets look forward to data on the number of open vacancies in the labor market from JOLTS. Analysts suggest that the value will decline to 10.475M from 10.698M a month earlier, which is an alarming signal, especially before tomorrow's report on employment in the non-farm sector, where experts are counting on an upward trend. Today, traders' attention will be focused on the Conference Board report on the index of consumer confidence, which, according to the forecast, may improve to 97.9 points from 95.7 points earlier. The trading instrument is moving within the global downtrend, approaching the support line. Technical indicators maintain a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.623, 0.645 | Support levels: 0.6097, 0.593

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CAC 40 - French stock market is actively declining

The stock index of France continued to decline this week after the financial authorities of the eurozone announced the continuation of aggressive monetary policy at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole. At the moment, CAC 40 quotes are correcting down, being at 6251. European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel has warned that central banks must act decisively to fight inflation despite recession risks. In turn, the Governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, said that he had no doubt that the European regulator would continue the policy of raising interest rates, bringing them to 1%-2% by the end of this year. The next meeting of the ECB will take place on September 8, and experts suggest that the value can be adjusted to 1.00% from 0.50%.
In the domestic bond market, the yield on the entire line of debt securities continues to rise, putting pressure on stock assets. The rate on popular 10-year government bonds is at 2.114%, up from 1.365% at the beginning of the month, and on long-term 20-year bonds it is 2.441%, up from 2.277%, which were demonstrated last week. Quotes of the index reversed and began to show an active decline. At the same time, technical indicators have already given an updated signal for the start of sales: the fast Alligator indicator EMAs crossed the signal line from above, and the histogram of the AO oscillator moved to the sales area, forming descending bars.

Support levels: 6132, 5840 | Resistance levels: 6354, 6615

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USDCAD - A fall is possible.

On the weekly chart, the downward correctional wave of the higher level 4 develops, within which the wave (C) of 4 forms. Now, the third wave 3 of (C) is developing, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of i of 3 has formed, and a local correction has ended as the wave (ii) of i of 3.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will fall to the area of 1.2374 – 1.201. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3224.
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USDCHF - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the fifth downward wave of the higher level 5 develops, within which the first wave (1) of 5 forms. Now, the first wave of the lower level 1 of (1) has formed, and a local correction is ending as the second wave 2 of (1), within which the wave c of 2 is forming.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the USDCHF pair will fall to the area of 0.92 – 0.8916. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9889.


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The shares of Bank of America, the largest financial conglomerate in the US, are moving within the corrective trend of around 34.

On the daily chart, the price has left the global downward channel with dynamic boundaries at 27 – 33 and is trying to stay within the corrective trend that began after overcoming the initial 23.6% Fibonacci correction at 34.7. On the four-hour chart, it is seen that the upward impulse has high prospects for implementation. However, they are relevant only after the quotes reconsolidation above 34.70. Technical indicators keep a buy signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range is directed upwards, although it is narrowing, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars in the buying zone.

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AUDUSD - Negative statistics from Australia put pressure on quotes

Australia's housing market data for July was released yesterday, with building permits falling sharply by 17.2% against a forecast of 5.0%, while construction of the rest of the property fell by a significant 43.5%, which was the second contraction in a row, and this allows us to speak about the negative impact of the increase in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which began in May this year. The Q2 volume of completed construction works decreased by 3.8%, although analysts expected an increase of 0.9%, while the volume of issued building permits for the construction of private homes increased by 0.7% after falling by 1.8% a month earlier. Also to the construction sector, the negative dynamics continue in the lending sector: the rate of loans issued is actively declining, and in July, the overall increase corrected to 0.5% from 0.6% a month earlier, and for the private sector — the sector — to 0.7% from 0.9% on the back of increased cost of servicing loans due to a sharp increase in interest rates. On the daily chart, the price is correcting, completing the formation of the Head and shoulders reversal pattern. Technical indicators have reversed and are holding a local sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator cross the signal line downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6928, 0.7122 | Support levels: 0.6847, 0.6681

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Crude Oil - decline after reports of continued supplies from Iraq

After a significant increase, quotes returned to levels below 100 and, according to leading experts, the downward dynamics are due to reports from the Iraqi State Oil Company (SOMO), which indicate the intention to continue continuous export of fuel, despite ongoing mass protests, which, in turn, weakened the fears of investors about the shortage of raw materials. European countries are currently called the key direction of supplies, and, according to SOMO, if buyers express interest, the company is ready to increase the volume of transportation of “black gold” to the region from 20% to 40%, for which the delegation has already gone to Germany for negotiations.

An additional pressure factor on the quotes was the statistics on stocks from the American Petroleum Institute (API), according to which the index rose by 0.593M barrels after falling by 5.632M a week earlier.

As for the demand for oil contracts from investors, last week, there were global changes: according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net speculative positions for the first time since the beginning of summer reached 246.2K, rising from 214.9K contracts a week earlier, which may be the primary sign of a change in the trend in the asset. On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument has left the limits of the local downwards channel, having overcome the resistance line. Technical indicators reversed upwards: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line upwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms upward bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 102.53, 111.97 | Support levels: 96.48, 91.16


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USDJPY - "bulls" are preparing to update the June high

Today, macroeconomic data that came out in Japan supported the quotes of the national currency. Industrial Production in July was 1.0%, exceeding the negative forecast of analysts at the level of -0.5%, while the volume of Retail Sales in annual terms for the same period was at the level of 2.4% against preliminary estimates of 1.9 %. Against this background, the USD/JPY pair fell to 138.30; however, the long-term trend remains upward.

Also today, Bank of Japan's board member Junko Nakagawa made a speech, based on whose statements it can be concluded that the regulator is still committed to maintaining the financial stimulus program to combat the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the official, the regulator will be cautious in decisions on monetary policy, and its main task is not to interfere with the actively recovering economy.

Further dynamics of USDJPY will depend on macroeconomic statistics from the US coming this week. Market participants are waiting for the publication of data on Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. Analysts suggest that the figure will add 300 thousand new jobs. If the actual value turns out to be close to the forecast or exceeds it, then the US dollar is waiting for further strengthening, and the USDJPY pair is likely to renew the June high around 139.2. The long-term trend is upward. Yesterday, the instrument came as close as possible to the level of 139.2, in case of a breakout of which, the growth will continue with the targets of 141 and 142.5, and if it is held, a correction to the area of 136 – 135.3 will take place. As part of the medium-term uptrend, the pair reached the target zone 2 (138.75–138.32). The "bulls" need to consolidate above this area, and then the next target of the upward movement will be the target zone 3 (143.11–142.67). The key trend support is shifting to the levels of 134.94–134.54. If it is tested as part of a correction, traders should consider new long positions in the asset.

Resistance levels: 139.2, 141, 142.55 | Support levels: 136, 135.3, 132.2

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AUDUSD - A fall is possible.
On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of C ended, and a downward correction forms as the wave (2) of C, within which the wave C of (2) develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C has formed, a correction has formed as the fourth wave iv of C, and the fifth wave v of C is developing, within which the local correction (ii) of v has developed and the wave (iii) of v is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.66 – 0.645. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.701.
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EURUSD - inflation in the EU has set another record

The European currency is resisting the growth of the dollar, trading around the 1.0014 mark after the publication of a block of macroeconomic data yesterday.

Thus, consumer prices in the EU in August added 0.5%, which led to an increase in the annual inflation rate to 9.1% from 8.9% (food and energy prices rose the most), while local inflation in countries bloc increased almost everywhere: in Italy, it reached 8.4% from 7.9% a month earlier, and in France, the figure fell to 5.8% instead of 6.1%. Rising consumer prices will require European Central Bank (ECB) officials to continue their "hawkish" policy, and already at the meeting on September 8, the interest rate could be raised immediately by 1.00%.

The American currency in yesterday's trading again renewed the annual maximum around 109.100 in the USD Index after the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, in his statement, clarified the "restrictive level of stability" of the interest rate announced by the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. That mark is in the 3.5% region, well above the current rate, Williams said, but experts are now evaluating the likelihood that the agency will want to reach that level in one step at its next meeting on September 21, putting significant pressure on the US economy, which and so is going through a recession.

The trading instrument is kept within the global downward channel, correcting towards the resistance line. Technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.0095, 1.0321 | Support levels: 0.9940, 0.9753


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XAUUSD - demand for gold is falling again

Due to the strengthening of the USD Index to the high of the year at 109, the XAUUSD pair is correcting in a downtrend around 1705.

The reason for the positive dynamics of the US dollar was several factors, the key among which was the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, at the symposium in Jackson Hole. The official gave the markets a clear signal that the regulator will continue to raise interest rates until inflation is brought under control, after which the rate will be kept at a “stable level” for some time to consolidate the effect of the measures already taken. According to him, the restoration of price stability will require a decisive use of central bank instruments, so experts suggest that at the September meeting, the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75,0 basis points for the third time in a row. However, yesterday, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, noted that the optimal level of the indicator is 3.5%, which hints at a possible adjustment immediately by 1.00%. A sharp rise in value is always a negative sign for gold.
Serious changes continue in demand for the metal from investors. According to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week, net speculative positions in the asset decreased to 125.8K from 141.2K contracts. If we pay attention to the activity of traders, then the sellers held the lead in cash-backed contracts, reducing them by 2,739K positions, while buyers liquidated only 99 contracts. On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument stays within the global downwards channel with dynamic boundaries 1770.0–1630.0. Technical indicators strengthen the sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are kept well below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram continues to fall in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1721, 1770 | Support levels: 1696, 1650