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Nikkei cruising

  • #141
  • Aug 28, 2022 10:56pm Aug 28, 2022 10:56pm
I didn't trade the retrace move up,

Because I need to master the impulse waves japs are back from their lunch break

I deployed my scout on demo this time of course I just can't go againts my rule my troops won their battle of the day they deserve their rest time

Like I said when the time comes I'll do both more than one battle and possibly a retrace move on my live acc

usdjpy is running higher still
gold is going down against the dollar

poor retailers are again at the opposite side of the main move!
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  • #142
  • Aug 29, 2022 12:09am Aug 29, 2022 12:09am
sl hit

I'm done for the day

looks like the next wave will be left to London open

most of the time that gets carried into the NY open just gets far too late for me function properly

maybe I should be happy with getting a single wave down/up maybe I should
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  • #143
  • Aug 29, 2022 6:50pm Aug 29, 2022 6:50pm
Here we are

I don't know what will happen truly but I have an idea that might get defeated but I have my levels to keep track of (and I know what to look for to keep on the right side ) I am ready to act upon confirmation !

remember to follow the rules.
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  • #144
  • Aug 29, 2022 9:18pm Aug 29, 2022 9:18pm
+135

regardless of the pips size I've done well today better than yesterday because of my full force attack (I exited a little too early due to distractions )

but I also see the need to improve my timing on entries! I went long right below major R

could have saved me a lot of scouts!

I need to get my level right , now that I have gotten my direction right and I've got to pat myself on the back for not becoming a PIG because you'll have doubts after your entry you'll sometimes see strong counter move but I'm learning stand tall on my convictions but I know deep down I also must leave room for other possibilities with that comes when and where again solid relevant points of references!
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  • #145
  • Aug 29, 2022 9:26pm Aug 29, 2022 9:26pm
troops are back on the battleground on demo this time

I didn't trade the retrace move down

gold is moving down strange
usdjpy has stalled currently a retest
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  • #146
  • Edited 7:40pm Aug 30, 2022 7:21pm | Edited 7:40pm
+359

Not a single scout was lost direction clear, confirmation clear and level was also clear

The owners of these markets always come with an agenda meaning price will move in one way or another especially on a TF like 1min all you have to do is if you can see the signs get on the right side and sit tight on your hands until it reaches the next major level square and wait for the next opportunity

But you can still lose a scout on the right level or area like yd London price did eventually fall not from 257 but from 330 area that's where I think the advantage of scout and attack sequence comes along so when you're wrong you minimize your losses and when you're right you double or triple your wins I'm trying to work this concept in my own way and I am pretty happy with the results thus far.

I'm done for the day it was real quick because the build up began way before Tokyo open

I surely will follow price and open up a trade on my demo now probably until Tokyo close

Currently retrace in progress (I haven't master the art of moving inside the oscillations on 1min but maybe I will soon enough) I'll need to wait for this 1h candle close and Singapore open for the next cue
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  • #147
  • Aug 31, 2022 1:40am Aug 31, 2022 1:40am
Quoting Piquant
+359 Not a single scout was lost direction clear, confirmation clear and level was also clear The owners of these markets always come with an agenda meaning price will move in one way or another especially on a TF like 1min all you have to do is if you can see the signs get on the right side and sit tight on your hands until it reaches the next major level square and wait for the next opportunity But you can still lose a scout on the right level or area like yd London price did eventually fall not from 257 but from 330 area that's where I think...
I dont understand anything about Asian Indices and Nikkey, but I have noticed a great moment for trading (regarding the DAX) at the opening of the EUREX Asian session 2:15CET.
Often we had the high or the low of the whole day (until 22CET, so for next 20 hours) that time.
I guess Tokyo main official Index open at 2CET, so probably main actors come in on main world futures/Indices that time.
Have you some thoughts about it my old friend Piquant?
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #148
  • Aug 31, 2022 4:26am Aug 31, 2022 4:26am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} Often we had the high or the low of the whole day (until 22CET, so for next 20 hours) that time
Hi Brixen !

I'm no pro at this by all no means but this is my view on Nikkei 1st arrow is Tokyo open support reversal move from 890 I squared at 992 it did go through 992 by then Singapore had arrived another push until fib 70% from 992 and I see what you mean last high from Singapore did indeed hold today upon Frankie open I currently have bunch of longs on my demo from Singapore and my target is 28163 above this fib 70%

so this bear attack could indeed be coming from bears sitting exactly around this points but to add onto that fib 70% is proving to be difficult for bulls to pass however London usually likes to buy cheap and sell high right at London open price was sitting around 28044 next support being 28000-27980 area I also look for more cues on 1min support and resistance around these session opens thats why I kept my long but we'll see its the end of the month and I see strange behavior on gold and dollar/yen !

so in conclusion aside from obvious levels that are in play in my observation each session determines their direction because they have a clear agenda and eventually that side wins unless there's big hands involvement.
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  • #149
  • Aug 31, 2022 4:37am Aug 31, 2022 4:37am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} Hi Brixen ! I'm no pro at this by all no means but this is my view on Nikkei 1st arrow is Tokyo open support reversal move from 890 I squared at 992 it did go through 992 by then Singapore had arrived another push until fib 70% from 992 and I see what you mean last high from Singapore did indeed hold today upon Frankie open I currently have bunch of longs on my demo from Singapore and my target is 28163 above this fib 70% so this bear attack could indeed be coming from bears sitting exactly around this points but to add onto that fib 70%...
Yes, your words make sense "each session determines their direction cause they have a clear agenda", thats right.
Thanks for your reply, much appreciated!
Good luck for you and for me!
see you here!
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #150
  • Aug 31, 2022 10:36pm Aug 31, 2022 10:36pm
Quoting Brixen
{quote} Yes, your words make sense "each session determines their direction cause they have a clear agenda", thats right. Thanks for your reply, much appreciated! Good luck for you and for me! see you here!
The more I learn this business the more I realize we just have to find a way to get on their side and not against it whether we're trading with the trend or against it because at the end of the day its the bottomline that we're concerned with but I'm also seeing after my horrible trade on demo that we must understand every movement wave by wave in relation levels and how that correlates with each session because they have their way of playing the game you've been in the game longer than I have been Brixen its truly a game of survival day after day a matter of life and death truly much respect to you !
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  • #151
  • Sep 1, 2022 12:22pm Sep 1, 2022 12:22pm
Quoting Piquant
{quote} The more I learn this business the more I realize we just have to find a way to get on their side and not against it whether we're trading with the trend or against it because at the end of the day its the bottomline that we're concerned with but I'm also seeing after my horrible trade on demo that we must understand every movement wave by wave in relation levels and how that correlates with each session because they have their way of playing the game you've been in the game longer than I have been Brixen its truly a game of survival day...
Yes, you're right, I consider myself a survivor after all these years, every day there are traps and bombs everywhere here and in every market,
To gain something everyday is almost a miracle in this tough job.

Anyway what are your plans for trading? you have on your shoulders a lot of work done last years, your sentences/analysis are always/often wise, so maybe it's time to take profit from this huge preparation you had, you have, isnt it?
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #152
  • Edited 8:58pm Sep 1, 2022 8:44pm | Edited 8:58pm
Quoting Brixen
{quote} To gain something everyday is almost a miracle in this tough job.
Indeed!

Only recently I have started to see flow better on Nikkei during Asian session and I'm beginning to almost perfect Tokyo open move after struggling to trade pre Tokyo and Singapore opens for years I've been actually trading these moves with scouts and full force attack on my micro live account managed to double that within a month its aggressive but I need solid proof that I've found my edge and that I can trade with courage day in and day out the same move but different variations. Other than the obvious reason of growing my account I am training my mind in rather extreme conditions to cope logically to not lose sight of levels/usual behaviors related to sessions/main direction of the session/1h trend and so forth my navigational skills of the terrain must be extremely sharp! and I must be fully prepared that full force attack helps me focus extra hard on the task at hand but the reward feels much appreciated at the same time !

As the saying goes by Sun Tzu, The Art of War “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

if one can master both themselves and the enemy with the correct use of resource MM I think after a while opening a trade should become like a reflex regardless of the size but if you somehow fail to be the best each day market/enemy will swallow you quickly like a black hole so as a trader gains more and more experience with the instrument they trade we must watch over our minds carefully. Appropriate rest along with mediation and zero distractions with calm mind and healthy body I think we should be alright in the years to come we gotta be courageous and have faith somehow in the end.
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  • #153
  • Sep 1, 2022 9:38pm Sep 1, 2022 9:38pm
+216

1 scout lost early entry - its okay not a fatal mistake but beware on exit I again got out a little too early because price sometimes doesn't exactly hit my target a little flaw on feel of the movement on my side

japs out for lunch I've been closely following the move on demo mentally noting levels of interest on my chart just navigating trying to learn the rhythm for the next section of the dance playing out different scenarios whether if should play a bull against this session move or 1h trend if then where etc I see an improvement in my understanding of the flow that follows the initial volatile move.... I'm a little bit careless on demo and I need to change that bad habit its Friday today I survived another day going to take it easy and slow from Monday onwards I think I'll be ready to dance this section of the dance "seriously" on demo and that completes the whole Asian session
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  • #154
  • Sep 2, 2022 6:31am Sep 2, 2022 6:31am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} Indeed! Only recently I have started to see flow better on Nikkei during Asian session and I'm beginning to almost perfect Tokyo open move after struggling to trade pre Tokyo and Singapore opens for years I've been actually trading these moves with scouts and full force attack on my micro live account managed to double that within a month its aggressive but I need solid proof that I've found my edge and that I can trade with courage day in and day out the same move but different variations. Other than the obvious reason of growing my account...
Thats right, and often our worst enemy are not the markets or BigHands (that in the end they guarantee a decent volatility) but ourselves, it's inside of us!
In the end it's battle inside of us!!
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #155
  • Sep 3, 2022 4:46am Sep 3, 2022 4:46am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} Thats right, and often our worst enemy are not the markets or BigHands (that in the end they guarantee a decent volatility) but ourselves, it's inside of us! In the end it's battle inside of us!!
absolutely well said !
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  • #156
  • Sep 4, 2022 6:18pm Sep 4, 2022 6:18pm
1h trend is down

476-457 area is my nearest R but in about 100pips we're reaching the infamous fibo 50% a prominent support

I'm formulating my opening strategy....
The remaining movements I'll trade seriously on my demo today.
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  • #157
  • Edited Sep 7, 2022 12:23am Sep 6, 2022 9:27pm | Edited Sep 7, 2022 12:23am
+330 overall a very good day

I sure have proved myself that I have an edge that I can see order. But now the next challenge is how do I keep this going consistently.

I have come to a realization that losses will occur no matter how hard I try to avoid them it is part of the business but a difference between a consistent loser and a winner besides the ability to see the flow as I see it is to minimize the losses and maximize the gains.

These are some additional rules that I will follow beside my rules regarding direction/entry/exit which I think are almost final but will be open to new adaptations depending on changing circumstances

- I need to stop deploying my troops before Tokyo or Singapore open let them confirm their direction and follow !
- Don't give too much credit to trendlines they are subjective but pay close attention to horizontal levels
- And on attack sequence finish the candles same goes for scouts !
- Range is a meat grinder its not my area of expertise so if you encounter two failures in a row it probably means you're in a formation that doesn't align with your way of trading better stay away than to give back what you have earned.
- In this line of work hours worked doesn't necessarily equal to wages earned so you don't have to push yourself to try to trade the extra hours you don't have to feel bad if you have earned your wage for the day learn to CALL IT A DAY.

I think this should be good for now if not final we'll see.

For now I'm only trading max two trades on my live but been practicing on demo the remaining movement until Tokyo close or London open volatility sure seems to dry up as Tokyo lunch approaches sometimes even before that ! so I need to be smart about deploying my resources during those times in other words when there's no enemy to fight rest for tomorrow's battle its counterproductive to stay on the battlefield.
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  • #158
  • Edited 5:40am Sep 16, 2022 3:54am | Edited 5:40am
You think you know something and you later find out you don't.

You know what the main problem with my old way of seeing the market was that you figure out the direction accurately with your technical analysis because you've been struggling for 8 years and have read plenty of the essential books on the subject and have gazed at price non stop for hours on end tick by tick weekend comes along you open up the charts again try to read the form baffled by the wiggly image so chaotic and yet so orderly you make believe yourself that someday you'll learn to put your order set your target and hope for the best ! LMAO.

The other day I was looking at the UJ hourly and any fool could have spotted that beauty continuous higher highs and higher lows and yet so hard to capture!

As embarrassing as it may be I believed in intuition I believed that after years of painful studies somehow I'll be able to conquer it all with a crystal ball like method i how foolish and ignorant was I ?

I always go back to Jupiter's old thread both of them whenever I feel stuck I just couldn't understand what he was doing fully then but I knew that it was special (I'll continue on this point later)

It was only recently that I started seeing the form and identifying the levels on the hourly chart correctly peak and trough yeah how hard can they be you ask ? well for years I was lost in the minor fluctuations I called a retrace wave a trend change! then you zoom down to 1min the same rules but different picture emerges somewhat contained within 1h levels but has its own mind spirals between spirals. I'm beginning to think that a beginning of a new wave on the hourly can emerge from 1min chart or at the same time it can be contained within 1h levels I guess what I'm trying to say is it can go both ways. And imagine being lost in 1min minor fluctuations ! I struggled for so long to reconcile the two if 1 min can make its own mind under the right circumstances and that spills over to hourly what do I follow ? 1h or the 1min ? for anyone who thinks 1min is noise I hereby regrettably inform you it isn't you just can't see the flow.

Then I thought now that I could identify the hourly trend I can trade the trend ! But alas in this day and age one can trade both ways and manage to make a comfortable living it's another one of those myths that I had to debunk to arrive at the next phase - will they ever conclude ? I'm not sure I doubt it as long as I'm open to new ideas but I believe the fundamentals of things will remain the same till the end of humanity.

Jupiter recommended me to read Him Reddy's book on Gann I've read it three times and I still couldn't tell concretely how that could translate into trading ? same thing on book by Thomas B. on patterns I was only beginning to spot them on my charts but there was no way I could actually trade them and yet the chart is full of patterns?! its like knowing how to read the notes of a certain musical instrument and have not yet learned to play them properly.

And back to Jupiter's way of trading the frenzy style I couldn't figure out why he would take profit quickly and play the defense enter on almost at the price of course excluding the spread at the top of the head of head and shoulder pattern or at the left top of ascending triangle and exit for instance at the neckline if it fails or the next prominent level as soon as it show sings of weakness he's out with his attacks ready for the next battle.

Then just I was beginning to see how he was able to enter at price on the head of head & shoulder pattern when he was using scout and attack but not yet his reason of quick exits in case if trouble emerges. I thought that was too much of a hassle and I decided to remain with attack only I mean what could go wrong I'm entering on a HL on an uptrend or a LH on a down trend?

But yeah so many things can go wrong ever heard of failure ? ahem and how prepared I was in case if that failed ? I'm in with an attack sequence ? I thought well I'm after the crystal ball trades so maybe I'll wait on resolution but that too can fail under the "right circumstances". OK then I thought hitting a road block then there must be no other way to trade this way profitably maybe I should move to higher TF and trade on levels ? but they too have their shortcomings and the risk would be far larger. Is this thing even possible the next thought emerges.

Then just yesterday when I was demoing Nikkei during London I started seeing the possibility of the frenzy style and how that could be profitable with minimal risk if only you could see and understand the 1min flow and know how to correlate that with 1h levels and form its not an easy feat. But today was my real experiment +200 no crystal ball unfortunately my initial bias was long however as seen 1min chart it failed soon that down move also failed developing into a ascending range I traded that range down entry and exit wasn't perfect you better be real quick with this method and I mean REALLY quick to enter on price that way I can deduce my risk and increase my potential profit then I take profit at the low if it fails and then restart again. Yeah that makes sense nov I was overstaying in my trades ! I should do it block by block!

To conclude there's still more to learn no doubt but I see that by trading this way one can capture hundreds of pips out of a 4 wave plus how many trades will you take during the session etc you can make $ here I see it now. Block by block do not overstay take profit along the way scale in and scale out always be nimble! yes honey scale in and scale out scout and attack and here we are a downtrend emerges on 1min you just gotta develop the eyes to see it.

Another revelation.
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  • #159
  • Sep 18, 2022 3:37am Sep 18, 2022 3:37am
I'm just meditating on these charts fib is drawn on 1h but zoomed down to 1min for minute details the reason why I went long I've been thinking and now looking back with a bit of a clarity I see that I was wrong once again. Because price had breached important 1h support fib 88.6% now turned resistance although it did manage to reach 5min untested old support 656 I bought the retracement wave thinking that price had reversed, it wasn't just a failure you know. After testing that old bottom of course it had to test the new diagonal 1h support and it did ! that's where the w formed and the range developed again until fib 88,6%.

And as it failed to break above that level I traded the range down from London the next 1h target was at fib 100% and it sure did reach that point not exactly but almost onto the bigger picture again big M had developed I thought this was a down trend with head and shoulder top but my experience tells me this is a big M.

If you can analyze correctly you can certainly judge with some degree of accuracy where price might go prior the session gets going with the aid of 1h levels to do that you have to know the trend and once you have done that analysis you zoom down to 1min for timing your entry your bias may prove right or wrong I think this where and why I have to be flexible I act upon facts! if for instance a double top forms below my R or double bottom above my support I initiate the trade with scout with tight stop ! You know a level can always fail but knowing where and what to look for greatly puts the odds in your favor instead of jumping the gun in no mans land which I often did in the past 6-8 years.

Ok so I know that on 1min price will gyrate between 1h main levels although a new development can emerge from 1min generally speaking 1h main levels is respected a cyclical nature of price or a wave. That must be my main reference point. But in between those levels you can clearly see that price didn't directly travel from one point to another that's where the trouble emerges if you want to pyramid or attack. Your troops must never overstay in an attack sequence I remember reading from fti's thread and I see why. Price first accelerates , then tests and retests prominent resistance or support levels and this is where elliot wave sequence comes in if I'm not mistaken I usually see 5 waves on my Nikkei 1min. If price can put your attack sequence at risk if you let your troops overstay on the battlefield before it reaches its final destination what should I take as a reliable measuring tool to withdraw my troops ? I think I found the answer in Richard Schabacker' book I've re-read two books over the weekend and now my head hurts in short its trendlines its an ants work block by block. Now my main weakness is mental stop. I think this can be traced back to poor timing on entries as I begin feel more and more confident in my ability to time the entries I really should learn to put my stop very tight both on scouting missions and on attack sequence.

Japs will be out on a holiday on Monday but I think I'll just observe the market action place a trade or two on my demo because I need to practice what I have just written because I think I've almost found all the missing pieces of the puzzle - excluding the constant sharpening of my sword of course that'll never end.
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  • #160
  • Jan 2, 2023 4:39pm Jan 2, 2023 4:39pm
Apparently its still a market holiday for Nikkei.

Looks like I'm going to have to come back tomorrow.

I was excited to be back to work.
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