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The Swamp

  • #103,581
  • Aug 26, 2022 1:05pm Aug 26, 2022 1:05pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah, you can make money. Or you can be shirtless. I want to wait for 1.0158 to short. I knew it had to cross that minefield. To get there. Next week I will add 1.003x. St support may show a reaction at 9932/40/ nothing trustworthy. It did miss .9898 by 2 pips. I was waiting for it to long earlier in the week. It missed, so I waited for 1.0158/59. It missed too. Since .9898 missed, it may still have its rejection power. Allow some overrun. If it reaches .9898 or somewhere lower, but close. Then goes to 1.0158/59. It would be complete one....
If price could manage to close above .9995 today. That would be positive to get my 1.0159 entry. That area below 0159 is tough. Its smaller than it was earlier.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,582
  • Aug 26, 2022 2:15pm Aug 26, 2022 2:15pm
Dow down 900
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,583
  • Aug 26, 2022 2:32pm Aug 26, 2022 2:32pm
Non commercial with a slight increase of shorts. Non commercials are not as heavy short like last week, Overall all slight increase in Longs.

I think a lot of shorts were closed at .9900/35 area
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,584
  • Aug 26, 2022 2:49pm Aug 26, 2022 2:49pm
Quoting gatorinla
Dow down 900 {image}
Found another,, 32219.25 ish.. maybe a nice bounce here next week on the Dow.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,585
  • Aug 26, 2022 3:03pm Aug 26, 2022 3:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah, you can make money. Or you can be shirtless. I want to wait for 1.0158 to short. I knew it had to cross that minefield. To get there. Next week I will add 1.003x. St support may show a reaction at 9932/40/ nothing trustworthy. It did miss .9898 by 2 pips. I was waiting for it to long earlier in the week. It missed, so I waited for 1.0158/59. It missed too. Since .9898 missed, it may still have its rejection power. Allow some overrun. If it reaches .9898 or somewhere lower, but close. Then goes to 1.0158/59. It would be complete one....
something like this at 1.0031 area.

Now seeing Cot, Non Commercials are not heavy short as of Wednesday. That may help it to go to 1.0159. It has a good chance to retrace after 1.003x. It can drop to 9898 or 9780. But with the weak Cot it may find support and bounce to 1.015x.
Of course Non Commercials/Commercials could of shorted, or closed longs. Today after hearing Powel. That's a big unknown.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,586
  • Aug 26, 2022 3:05pm Aug 26, 2022 3:05pm
This week COT report, hedge funds added Eur longs and Eur shorts, a little increase net short in Eur..
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  • #103,587
  • Aug 26, 2022 3:07pm Aug 26, 2022 3:07pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} something like this at 1.0031 area. Now seeing Cot, Non Commercials are not heavy short as of Wednesday. That may help it to go to 1.0159. It has a good chance to retrace after 1.003x. It can drop to 9898 or 9780. But with the weak Cot it may find support and bounce to 1.015x. Of course Non Commercials/Commercials could of shorted, or closed longs. Today after hearing Powel. That's a big unknown. {image}
we checked the report at the same time.. lol
  • #103,588
  • Aug 26, 2022 3:11pm Aug 26, 2022 3:11pm
Eur Bulls need hold H4 uptrend stop for this to go up..
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  • #103,589
  • Aug 26, 2022 4:14pm Aug 26, 2022 4:14pm
Quoting Boulder
Eur Bulls need hold H4 uptrend stop for this to go up.. {image}
I think 1.0032 is a done deal visit next week.. Need closes above 0.9964.9.. Got that. An open above .9969 would help. I see your day at 1.03xx. The closest i have to it is 1.0275.
I'm hoping 1.0159 area caps it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,590
  • Aug 27, 2022 12:53am Aug 27, 2022 12:53am
Let's see what our old friend Jordan has to say today and if we will see the weekend gap of about 500 pips on CHF pairs.
SNB will raise rates again in September, almost a done deal, Jordan stated that if Inflation remains stubborn they will continue to tighten. I expect 0% at year's end.
  • #103,591
  • Aug 27, 2022 12:55am Aug 27, 2022 12:55am
EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY trend seems to continue. I expect 139 USD/JPY this week where I'll be looking to short.
  • #103,592
  • Aug 27, 2022 7:52pm Aug 27, 2022 7:52pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I think 1.0032 is a done deal visit next week.. Need closes above 0.9964.9.. Got that. An open above .9969 would help. I see your day at 1.03xx. The closest i have to it is 1.0275. I'm hoping 1.0159 area caps it.
Skip this for longing. Its just for a short setups.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,593
  • Aug 28, 2022 7:31am Aug 28, 2022 7:31am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Skip this for longing. Its just for a short setups.
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I regret deeply playing this as a 10 minute scalp instead of riding it all the way down during Jackson.

If EUR/USD gets to 1.01, I will sell heavily and hold for below parity.
  • #103,594
  • Aug 28, 2022 3:14pm Aug 28, 2022 3:14pm
Looks like a gap up in euro
  • #103,595
  • Aug 28, 2022 4:51pm Aug 28, 2022 4:51pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I think 1.0032 is a done deal visit next week.. Need closes above 0.9964.9.. Got that. An open above .9969 would help. I see your day at 1.03xx. The closest i have to it is 1.0275. I'm hoping 1.0159 area caps it.
I'm neutral. With a slight lean to bearish. No gap above 9969.

1.0032 is my smaller short zone. 1.0145/59 the next. Down wise .9898 first one, second 9780. Bears seem to be teasing bulls, just enough to hang ourselves. I think .9780 is the better buy, or 1.0159 the better short. And the next place price will go.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,596
  • Aug 28, 2022 5:00pm Aug 28, 2022 5:00pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I'm neutral. With a slight lean to bearish. No gap above 9969. 1.0032 is my smaller short zone. 1.0145/59 the next. Down wise .9898 first one, second 9780. Bears seem to be teasing bulls, just enough to hang ourselves. I think .9780 is the better buy, or 1.0159 the better short. And the next place price will go.
Price did miss .9898. That was the pool ending to me. It got to .9900. I dont know if missing those 2 pips is relevant enough to change the down direction now. I did believe that when it was at 1.036x. But now since its got so close before. I dont have the same confidence it will bounce at or a little lower than .9898.

I do have that confidence at .9780 and some at 1.0158
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,597
  • Aug 28, 2022 6:53pm Aug 28, 2022 6:53pm
less powerful possible bounce after 0031.7ish
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,598
  • Aug 29, 2022 5:34am Aug 29, 2022 5:34am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Price did miss .9898. That was the pool ending to me. It got to .9900. I dont know if missing those 2 pips is relevant enough to change the down direction now. I did believe that when it was at 1.036x. But now since its got so close before. I dont have the same confidence it will bounce at or a little lower than .9898. I do have that confidence at .9780 and some at 1.0158
yet she rises off the footsteps..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,599
  • Aug 29, 2022 6:07am Aug 29, 2022 6:07am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I'm neutral. With a slight lean to bearish. No gap above 9969. 1.0032 is my smaller short zone. 1.0145/59 the next. Down wise .9898 first one, second 9780. Bears seem to be teasing bulls, just enough to hang ourselves. I think .9780 is the better buy, or 1.0159 the better short. And the next place price will go.
Its not smaller, its just next on the ladder. 1.0032 being before 1.00159.

Price being between 9898, and 1.0159 was in chop between. I may need to look at 1.0032 instead of 1.0159. Either is a place to look for a short. I still need to beware of .9898 area when shorting.

.9995 was a 50% retrace off .9900 and last weeks high. Dammed if you do, dammed if you dont.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,600
  • Aug 29, 2022 6:32am Aug 29, 2022 6:32am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If price could manage to close above .9995 today. That would be positive to get my 1.0159 entry. That area below 0159 is tough. Its smaller than it was earlier. {image}
Same number but price didnt close the week above. PA is on the Southside. With some urge to make 1.0032 this week. Pa is bearish. If, when, or how it makes it to 1.0032 or 1.0159 is not the traders concern. You dont need to know how to read a map, to use your cell's GPS. The 50% retrace to .9995is very normal. Closing above can be bullish. A little stronger at 1.002 + closing. The opposite of bullish is closing below. Just know generically, near 1.0032 is better than 50/50 most times. Its bearish, in a chop/range zone. It hit the lower end of the range earlier. It should hit .9954 to see what's next (as long as the high holds first .9995).
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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