Free Market Updates by Solidecn.com

FTSE 100 - British business activity data disappointed investors
The UK stock market this week will remain focused on today's publication of data on business activity in the leading sectors of the economy. As analysts expected, the slowdown in indicators continued, which in the long term is a negative signal. Manufacturing PMI decreased to 46.0 points from 52.1 points, and Services PMI amounted to 52.5 points after 52.6 points recorded in the previous period.

In the corporate segment, the telecommunications company Vodafone Group Plc. sold its Hungarian division 4iG Public Limited. The amount of the deal is estimated at 1.78 billion dollars, and some experts consider it too low. In turn, the UK bond market continues its upward correction: the yield on 10-year government bonds amounted to 2.514%, while the rate on conservative 20-year bonds again reached its June peak at around 2.929%. Quotes of the index continue to trade within the global side channel, approaching the upper limit. Technical indicators are holding a buy signal, which has recently begun to weaken: the range of the Alligator indicator EMAs fluctuations started to narrow down and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms descending bars.

Support levels: 7456, 7200 | Resistance levels: 7558, 7693

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GBPUSD - the pound tries to recover from record lows

The British pound is showing mixed dynamics, testing 1.1830 for a breakout. The day before, the GBPUSD pair showed a moderate corrective growth, which was partly caused by the depreciation of the US currency in almost the entire spectrum of the market.

Among other things, pressure on dollar quotes was exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from the US. Thus, the Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global in August corrected from 52.2 points to 51.3 points, although analysts expected a decrease to only 52 points, and the Services PMI fell sharply from 47.3 points to 44.1 points, while it was expected that the indicator would rise to 49.2 points. However, it should be noted that the British statistics also turned out to be disappointing: the Services PMI in August corrected from 52.1 points to 46.0 points, while the forecast was at the level of 51.1 points.

Investors today are in no hurry to open new trading positions, preferring to wait for the results of the symposium in Jackson Hole, which is to be addressed by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The official is expected to give clear signals on the pace of interest rate hikes in September and beyond, as well as comments on the prospects for a recession amid deteriorating energy markets. Meanwhile, London Mayor Sadiq Khan said most people in the country will not be able to pay their heating bills and even afford food this winter amid record inflation, which has reached 10.1% in annual terms, the highest since 1982. According to Bloomberg analysts, electricity tariffs will reach 4K pounds per month by January next year. The UK Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) may set a price ceiling of around 4.266K pounds in the first months of next year, nearly 0.650K pounds more than the agency's previous forecast. Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range expands from below, making way for new local lows for the "bears". MACD is going down, keeping a fairly stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, having retreated from its lows, is trying to recover, indicating the corrective growth development in the near future.

Resistance levels: 1.1854, 1.1933, 1.2, 1.2054 | Support levels: 1.18, 1.1758, 1.17, 1.165

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AUDUSD - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of C ended and a downward correction develops as the wave (2) of C, within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C has formed, a correction has formed as the fourth wave iv of C and the fifth wave v of C is developing, within which the local correction (ii) of v is developing.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the AUDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.66 – 0.645. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7134.


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EURUSD - The euro against the dollar fell to a record low in 20 years

The EURUSD pair is actively declining, trading around 0.9957. This week, the instrument renewed its 20-year low, consolidating below 0.9950 on the back of continued growth in gas prices, recession risks in the EU, and negative macroeconomic statistics.

Thus, Services PMI in France fell to 51.0 points from 53.2 earlier, Services PMI in Germany fell to 48.2 points from 49.7 points earlier, and the aggregate value for all EU countries dropped to 50. 2 points from 51.2 a month earlier. Business activity in the French manufacturing sector fell to 49.0 points from 49.5 points earlier, in Germany – to 49.8 points, and in the EU – to 49.7 points, down 0.1 points.

By the end of yesterday, the situation changed, and the trading instrument stopped actively falling due to the decline in the US dollar, which began to sell off after the publication of disappointing data on new home sales in the US. Thus, in July, the indicator decreased to 511.0K from 585.0K in June, yielding the forecast of 575.0K. The total drop in sales was 12.6%, the lowest figure since February 2016. Seriously disappointed investors and business activity, which weakened to 44.1 points in the service sector and 51.3 points in the manufacturing sector. The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, falling towards the support line. Technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars, falling in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.006, 1.0347 | Support levels: 0.9898, 0.9650

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USDCHF - The US dollar develops an uptrend
The US dollar is showing moderate growth, testing the level of 0.966 for a breakout. The day before, USDCHF has already made attempts to consolidate above this level, but by the end of the day session, the "bulls" have lost all their positions, and the dollar retreated to the opening levels. The reason for the emergence of negative dynamics was the weak macroeconomic statistics from the US. In particular, market participants drew attention to the decline in business activity indices, as well as New Home Sales, which fell by 12.6% in July after falling by 7.1% a month earlier. In addition, investors are in no hurry to open new long positions ahead of the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. The official is expected to intensify "hawkish" rhetoric, but more moderate signals for further tightening of monetary policy are not ruled out. In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range expands, freeing a path to new local highs for the "bulls". MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). The indicator is also trying to consolidate above the zero level. Stochastic, having reached its peak values is reversing into a descending plane, signaling in favor of the development of a correctional decline in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.97, 0.9762, 0.9847, 0.99 | Support levels: 0.965, 0.9594, 0.952, 0.9469

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The price of North American Crude Oil is correcting within the uptrend around 93.32.

Since the beginning of the year, the United States has been actively trying to influence OPEC+, persuading it to increase oil production and thereby reduce fuel prices on the world market. Still, the cartel ignores these requirements, forcing the American authorities to reduce national strategic reserves to the lowest level since 1985 of 453.1M barrels. It, in turn, puts pressure on energy carriers: since the beginning of summer, prices have already fallen by more than 20 dollars, but yesterday, the alliance members again stressed that they could correct their dynamics with their intervention. Thus, the head of the Ministry of Energy of Saudi Arabia, Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, confirmed that OPEC+ would begin developing a new agreement soon, under which the group intends to reduce production, which will normalize the current situation by reducing volatility. Also, the likely positive decision on the "nuclear deal" with Iran and the entry of cheap oil into the market remains a key factor. Thus, Saudi Arabia once again made it clear that the oil quotes and its supply are under full control, and in case of unforeseen circumstances, the organization is ready to intervene immediately.

Investors perceived this situation with a clear positive, and in the first two days of trading during the week, Crude Oil quotes increased by 8 dollars, reaching 93 again. On the weekly chart of the asset, the price left the limits of the local downwards channel, having consolidated above the resistance line. Technical indicators confirm the high probability of continued corrective growth: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator began to actively approach the signal line, narrowing the range of fluctuations, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming new upward bars, approaching the transition level.

Resistance levels: 96, 102.37 | Support levels: 91.33, 85.3


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Dow Jones - US stock market started to decline

The US stock market returned to negative dynamics after the end of the active phase of the publication of financial statements of companies. At the moment, the Dow Jones index is correcting in a local downtrend, trading at 32877.

In the corporate segment, Zoom Video Communications, a company offering cloud-based video conferencing solutions, remains one of the leaders in the decline, whose shares lost more than 16% on the back of a weak quarterly report and subsequent management comments. In particular, a drop in revenues was predicted by the end of the year due to the lifting of quarantine restrictions and the return of users to offices and, as a result, a decrease in demand for online communication services. Another event that could have an impact on the US stock market is the annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole, which kicks off tomorrow. Traders hope to get more clarification about the implementation of the plan to raise interest rates and further actions of the financial authorities to reduce the rapid pace of inflation from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The index quotes have left the boundaries of a wide downward channel, having overcome the resistance line, but at the moment they are approaching the broken level again. Technical indicators, which were steadily pointing to growth, began to actively reverse: the fluctuation range of the Alligator indicator EMAs is actively narrowing, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming new descending bars, being in the buy zone.

Support levels: 32561, 31245 | Resistance levels: 33296, 34300

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XAUUSD - The price has stabilized but may resume a decline

The US dollar strengthened against alternative assets, including gold, amid problems in the European and Chinese economies. A serious increase in inflation in the EU and the UK, as well as a decrease in the volume of energy supplies to the EU and a slowdown in production growth in China against the backdrop of the introduction of quarantine measures, have seriously increased the risks of a global economic downturn and strengthened the dollar as a shelter asset. The US economy has so far been coping with the pressure of rising prices and tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, supported by a strong labor market, although several other industries, such as the construction sector, have begun to slow down. Experts hope the country will avoid a recession, despite the continued increase in rates, making the US currency more attractive for investment.

At the moment, the trading instrument has stabilized, as investors are waiting for the most important event of the week – the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, at the symposium in Jackson Hole. He is expected to confirm the need for further interest rate adjustments until inflation slows to a 2.0% target and oppose a slowdown in monetary tightening, strengthening the US currency. The slightest fluctuations regarding the continuation of the “hawkish” rate of the regulator may have the opposite effect, in which case the XAUUSD pair will resume growth.
The trading instrument regained its lost position, having risen to 1750 (Murrey [4/8]), but for serious growth, it will need to consolidate above the middle line of Bollinger bands around 1769, and then the positive dynamics may continue to 1812.5 (Murrey [6/ 8]) and 1843.75 (Murrey [7/8]). If 1732 (lower line of Bollinger bands) is broken downwards, a new decrease to 1687.5 (Murrey [2/8]), 1656.25 (Murrey [1/8]) is possible.

Technical indicators do not give a single signal, illustrating the uncertainty of the market: Bollinger bands reverse horizontally, Stochastic is pointing upwards, and the MACD histogram is increasing in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 1769, 1812.5, 1843.75 | Support levels: 1732, 1687.5, 1656.25

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XRPUSD - Murray analysis

The price left the mid-term ascending channel and tested the 0.3296 mark (Murray [3/8]), however, it was not possible to consolidate below it, and currently quotes have formed a narrow side channel of 0.3418-0.3296. A breakdown of its lower boundary may cause a further decline to the levels of 0.3174 (Murray [2/8]), 0.3052 (Murray [1/8]). To resume serious growth, quotes will need to consolidate above the level of 0.3662 (Murray [6/8]), supported by the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. In this case, the targets of the increase will be 0.3906 (Murray [8/8]) and 0.4028 (Murray [+1/8]). In general, the XRPUSD pair continues to form a new downward trend, as evidenced by the downward reversal of the Bollinger Bands and the increase in the MACD histogram in the negative zone, and the exit of the Stochastic from the oversold zone does not exclude short-term growth, but its potential is seen to be limited.

Resistance levels: 0.3418, 0.3662, 0.3906, 0.4028 | Support levels: 0.3296, 0.3174, 0.3052

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USDJPY - Dollar is falling ahead of Jerome Powell's speech

Investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions in anticipation of the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as part of the symposium starting today in Jackson Hole, hoping to get hints on further actions of the regulator in the field of monetary policy. To date, analysts estimate the likelihood of an interest rate hike in September by 50 basis points and by 75 basis points about the same. In addition, market participants hope that the Fed Chairman will comment on the prospects for tightening the existing parameters in the face of worsening forecasts for the energy crisis.

Macroeconomic statistics from Japan published today does not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the instrument. Meanwhile, Corporate Service Price Index corrected from 2.0% to 2.1% in July from a forecast of 2.2%, Foreign Bond Investment fell by 79.2 billion yen for the week ended August 19 after a record increase of 1154.7 billion yen over the previous period, and Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks for the same period fell from 45.3 billion yen to 28.5 billion yen. The Ministry of Finance of Japan presented statistics on the level of oil purchases: last month, the country increased the transportation of "black gold" from Russia by 65.4% compared to the same period in 2021, and by 10% from the Middle East. However, Russian liquefied natural gas imports corrected downwards by 26.1%, and coal imports fell by 40.1%. Despite the fact that the rhetoric of the Japanese authorities is aimed at a phased reduction in the use of raw materials from the Russian Federation, official Tokyo announced the conclusion of contracts with the new operator of the Sakhalin-2 project, LLC Sakhalin Energy. Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range expands, freeing a path to new local highs for the "bulls". MACD tends to reverse into the descending plane preserving the previous buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic shows a more confident decline, testing the level of "80" for a breakdown. Current readings of the indicator signal in favor of a corrective decline in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 137.5, 138.5, 139.5, 140.5 | Support levels: 136.5, 135.57, 134.54, 134

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USDCAD - A fall is possible.

On the weekly chart, the downward correctional wave of the higher level 4 develops, within which the wave (C) of 4 forms. Now, = the third wave 3 of (C) is developing, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of i of 3 has formed, and a local correction is ending as the wave (ii) of i of 3.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the USDCAD pair will fall to the area of 1.201 – 1.1426. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3224.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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GBPUSD - Traders are confident in the acceleration of the pace of rate hikes by the Bank of England

A regular meeting of the Bank of England is scheduled for September 15, at which the issue of further tightening monetary policy will be discussed. Judging by the dynamics of futures, traders expect an increase in interest rates to at least 75.0 basis points from the current 50 points, but a 100 basis point increase is not ruled out. These options became more actively discussed after the price of natural gas on the London Intercontinental Exchange reached 3.1 dollars per thousand cubic meters, which makes imports much more expensive and increases the burden on consumers.

The US dollar retreated somewhat from its highs and is trading at 108.600 in the USD Index. Investors reacted weakly to yesterday's data on durable goods orders, which remained in June, although basic orders rose slightly, adding 0.3%. The US housing market is still experiencing some difficulties, as evidenced by yesterday's data on the index of pending sales: the index fell by 1.0% in July, which indicates a large number of pending transactions. The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, falling towards the support line. Technical indicators reversed and gave a sell signal: the range of fluctuations of the EMA on the Alligator indicator continues to expand in the direction of decline, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.1883, 1.2219 | Support levels: 1.1717, 1.1452

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USDCHF - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the downward fifth wave of the higher level 5 develops, within which the first wave (1) of 5 forms. Now, the first wave of the lower level 1 of (1) has formed and a local correction is developing as the second wave 2 of (1).

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the USDCHF pair will fall to the area of 0.8916 – 0.8730. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9889.
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NZDUSD - Trades within the global downtrend

According to the morning report from Statistics New Zealand (Stats NZ), retail sales corrected by –2.3% in June, reflecting the negative dynamics for the second consecutive quarter after falling by 0.9% in the previous period. This time, ten out of fifteen retail sectors showed a decline. Thus, their sales of cars and spare parts fell by 5.8%, while the sector of durable electronic goods decreased by 6.1%. The leading positions are still held by food delivery services, adding 3.3% over the reporting period. Thus, inflation continues to pressure households, preventing the quotes of the New Zealand currency from changing the trend and starting a systematic strengthening of the exchange rate.

Meanwhile, the American currency continues its corrective dynamics, consolidating slightly below 109.000 in the USD Index. Markets are looking ahead to US Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) data today, and with forecasts of a quarterly decline of 0.8%, the pressure on the US Fed ahead of Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium is increasing significantly. Also, weekly data on initial jobless claims will be published on Thursday. The indicator is expected to grow from 250.0K to 253.0K, which, in turn, may harm the national currency rate. The trading instrument is moving within the global downtrend, gradually approaching the support line. Technical indicators maintain a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is trading, forming downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6247, 0.6450 | Support levels: 0.6162, 0.6058

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ADAUSD - Price decline may resume
As an additional driver for the asset movement, new challenges are seen with testing a key update of the Cardano Vasil network, which should lead to a significant increase in network performance through the launch of a data pipeline function, expand the use of smart contracts and optimize processes for the growing volume of applications in the DeFi market. Cardano lead developer Adam Dean said on Friday that a serious bug has occurred on the testnet, and nodes 1.35.2 and 1.35.3 are out of sync. He also accused the project management of the extreme rush to launch the fork, which is why the failures occurred. These comments raised concerns among investors that the timeline could be revised again, but on Monday, Ding said the bugs had been consolidated, and the outlook for the update is "better than ever," which supports the ADA/USD pair. The trading instrument is testing 0.4638 (Murrey [3/8]), the breakout of which will give the prospect of further growth to 0.4882 (Murrey [4/8]), 0.5127 (Murrey [5/8], the middle line of Bollinger bands). The key "bearish" level is 0.4394 (Murrey [2/8]), the breakdown of which allows further decline to 0.4150 (Murrey [1/8]) and 0.3906 (Murrey [0/8]).

Technical indicators reflect a downward trend: Bollinger bands reverse downwards, and the MACD histogram increases in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 0.4638, 0.4882, 0.5127 | Support levels: 0.4394, 0.415, 0.3906

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Crude Oil - Reducing US oil inventories makes the prices grow

Brent crude oil quotes rose above 100 dollars per barrel for the first time since August 12, reaching a resistance level in the 102 area after the publication of US statistics and reports of production cuts by OPEC+ members.

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude stocks fell by 5.632M barrels, well below the forecast of 0.450M barrels and the previous value of 0.448M barrels. A similar report from the Energy Information Agency (EIA) also showed a decline of 3.282M barrels, lower than the forecast of –0.933M barrels but higher than the previous value of –7.056M barrels. Also, the energy quotes are supported by reports that OPEC+ representatives are ready to reduce production if cheap Iranian oil is brought to the market after the signing of the “nuclear deal” by official Tehran and Western countries. Against this background, the quotes of the trading instrument went into an upward correction and reached 102, after the breakdown of which the movement will continue to 110. However, the long-term trend is still downwards. If this level is kept, the decline in the asset will increase to the area of 93.55. The medium-term trend is down, and the price is testing the border of the corridor of 102.30–101.45. If it is held, the decline will continue with the target at the August low at 93.20. Otherwise, the market expects a trend change to an uptrend, and zone 2 (110.80–109.95) will become the target for purchases.

Resistance levels: 102, 110 | Support levels: 96.24, 93.55

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Crude Oil - Growth is possible

On the daily chart, the upward wave C forms, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C developed and a downward correction ended as the second wave 2 of (1) of C. Now, the third wave 3 of (1) has started, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of i of 3 is developing.

If the assumption is correct, Brent Crude Oil will grow to the area of 127.04 – 139.4. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 92.72.
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USDJPY - US economy downturn continues in Q2

The price index for corporate goods and services remained at 2.1% YoY, slightly inferior to the 2.2% that analysts forecasted. This morning, data on the core consumer price index in Tokyo in August were published, according to which inflation rose in annual terms to 2.6% from 2.3% earlier. Full inflation-adjusted for fuel and food rose to 2.9% from 2.5% previously. As a rule, prices in Tokyo are very often close to the general value throughout the country, and the fact that it did not exceed 3.0% is a positive signal that allows the Bank of Japan to implement its policy of negative rates for some time.
The trading instrument moves within the global uptrend, forming the Head and shoulders pattern. Technical indicators maintain a weakening buy signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range has begun to narrow, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming bars above the transition level.

Resistance levels: 137.45, 139.45 | Support levels: 136.15, 132.85

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USDCAD - Canadian labor market continues to recover

The Canadian currency is trying to win back losses against the US dollar against the backdrop of positive macroeconomic statistics from the national labor market. Now the USDCAD pair is correcting downwards, trading around 1.2954.

As Statistics Canada reported yesterday, employment in the service sector rose by 0.6% in June, and almost all areas showed positive dynamics: education, the indicator added 1.9%, food – 1.3%, and healthcare – by 0.4 %. During this period, the total number of vacancies increased by 3.2%, which means the appearance for the third consecutive month of more than 1.0M additional unfilled positions and, as a result, an increase in demand for labor by 1.4% compared to May of this year – to 17.7M. The most demanded are still specialists in the healthcare sector, where the rate of posted vacancies rose by 40.8% YoY and by 0.2% MoM. These data indicate that the Canadian labor market is starting to grow rapidly, which will undoubtedly positively impact the national economy. On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument is moving within a wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.2600–1.3200 towards the support line. Indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range began to narrow, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming downward bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 1.2990, 1.3222 | Support levels: 1.2893, 1.2727

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AUDUSD - long-term downtrend persists

The AUDUSD pair is correcting around 0.696 against the background of market participants' expectations of the continuation of the "hawkish" policy of the US Fed.
Today at 16:00 (GMT+2), the head of the department Jerome Powell will speak at the symposium in Jackson Hole. It is expected that the official will announce plans to continue the current tightening of monetary parameters and, in particular, to raise the interest rate in September by another 75 basis points, which, in turn, will provide the US currency with moderate short-term support. Despite the fact that in July, inflation in the USA slightly decreased to 8.5% from 9.1%, its impact on the national economy remains significant. The long-term trend is downward. After reaching the support level of 0.6865, the AUDUSD pair corrected to the level of 0.699, if it is held, the movement of quotations will continue with the targets at 0.6865, 0.668. The medium-term trend changed to a downtrend last week. The key support 0.6936–0.6916 was broken out by the bidders, and now a correction is developing, one of the targets of which may be the 0.7078 – 0.7058 area. After testing the resistance zone 0.7078–0.7058, it is worth considering new short positions with targets at 0.6736 – 0.6716.

Resistance levels: 0.6990, 0.7030, 0.7130 | Support levels: 0.6865, 0.6680.

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