Predicting the sp500 on the hourly chart

Hello to you all,

Not many traders predict on this forum so I am going to see if I can predict swings in the SP500 before they happen. I discovered a method that certainly seems to be able to predict the next hourly swing. For this I developed a method to calculate the expected swing, a good programmer friend turned it into a simple method that can be done with 2 clicks of the mouse.

The method is very reliable when the market is trending. I will not
tell you how its done but you can buy the indicator from us. I will share some of my other methods and a little bit of cycle work with you.

Lets get into it. I was expecting a turn down in the SP500 this week, I will show you why.
I was looking at Gann's cycles, these are useless on their own, but if you look for a astrological reason and you can line it up with start of the trend , often you will find the top or close to it.

Now, armed with the possibility of a change in trend I want to go onto the hour chart and prepare for a nice short trade. Here is how I did it.

Step 1. Watch price to start doing something different.
So you simply wait for a unusual move to tell you some thing is up. At this point I am not even in a trade. I am watching for the first decline. In the next slide I will show you how I identify not only the price level but the time as well

So I developed a way to calculate the turns in TIME this is an indicator that treats time and price as interchangeable, this is what it looks like on the current chart of the hourly chart. The indicator suggested 2 timing points for a change in trend. This indicator only predicts time. This is what it was predicting after we got the first move down 2 turning points!!!!
I then developed an indicator that uses the calculations based upon Ganns Square to calculate resistance arcs. I will now drop the indicator onto my chart. It looks like this.

The first trade timing point did not hit my arcs so I would not have taken it. The second time point offered the best opportunity for a short trade with price just a pip or 2 away from the ideal price level.

Today is the 20th August 2022.

What I predict for next week is that the SP500 will retrace up, currently the calculation suggest a move of 27 hours up. However, this is based on the low on Friday night, if we fall a little further then that time value will need to be recalculated. I then add in the arcs. What I know is that I am only interested in the arcs at the time level. The indicator draws a complete set of arcs, but only at the correct timing point do they become reactive.

Although there are a few arc line, there only one time point hence my ideal level would be for a sell at 4257.72

As the SP500 sold off today I have recalculated my time for the retracement to end, this assumes that the low is in for the moment.

I think we have a strong down trend today .

4H

Just to let you all know, the swing prediction requires that the market makes a low. As the SP500 keeps making new lows I cannot forecast the correction swing high.

Currently the move up would be a 42 hour correction, but only if the current low holds.

It appears the low on the SP500 has arrived so I am looking for a retrace of about 45-47 hours

Finally the SP500 did correct and I have reconstructed the chart. The expectation is that the SP500 will touch the black arc close to the ideal time point and then reverse the trend. How far the market falls remains to be seen.

This is the result of the forecast, the predicted high was 4 hours early, and about 93 pips higher on the spike, the move down is well over 1000 points and counting. If you look at the closing price it never traded above the arc. This indicator works on the 1H chart sometime it will nail the turn to the bar, but is is always close. I don't know of any indicator that can do this on the hourly chart. The indicator is for sale if you are interested. Used in the correct way you can pay for it in a couple of trades.

Send me an email if interested.

Once this down move starts to retrace I expect to see a retracement currently at about 38 hours from the low. This means that the low would have to be in, I expect a gap down over the weekend. This down move is far from over. I would expect a fall of 6-7 days minimum and a max of about 3000 points down

Hello,good work there.
If you are proficient in use of this method you developed and have the mental strength to trade other people's money,why you don't open an account with Darwinex and get some serious funding from the firm and investors present at their investment platform.
It is developing slowly,but some traders are already having over 5 mil.AuM.
This way you can preserve your intellectual property and earn some good money.
Many traders there are scalpers who cannot manage much more than 500k or 1 mil.of AuM before slippage erodes the gains,but your method would easily accommodate many millions of AuM.
Give it a thought.
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Thank you for the advice, I will give the idea some serious consideration.

Thank you

Having done a bit of research on what happens after a down move like we saw on Friday is quite interesting to note that in the 4 examples I found, mostly the market rallied after. Now, there is a cycle that hits on Sunday night early Monday morning.

This is where the SP500 might fall to, this is a combination of price chart reading, cycle analysis and some things I learnt studying subjects outside of trading.



So I will closing my short trade from Friday and looking for a retrace up, if the market you trade makes a big move like this , you will find that the it is often retraced. Most traders will see this big move down and expect it to carry on, this is where you have to do your research, and not allow yourselves to chase the markets you trade.

If the SP500 hits the price level indicated the correction up should be about 45 hours from the low yet to be formed over the weekend or Monday morning. The cycle hits exactly on the 28.08.2022 at 2 pm in the afternoon CET. Once the low is established, I will use the arcs to calculate a retracement level.

Here is a historical example of the indicator in use. The calculation of the swing in time was 36 hours. The red arc is the calculated resistance level. What you can see is the SP500 tagged the arc exactly on the correct time point, then 6 hours later price hit the arc and exceeded it, you can see it did not close higher though. This does happen and it is the manipulation that often occurs around these points.

I will state that the indicator is the best thing I have ever seen, I know people that try to predict turns on the daily level and fail miserably, then pat themselves on the back because they did in in a 5 day window. The calculations are based upon turning time in price and price into time, this is what Gann did, because Gann was not able to draw arcs he used lines. What he never explained was when did a line become active, that's exactly what my indicator does.

How much you actually want for this indicator? Also, there are multiple ways to pick top and bottom. It is doable. I'm saying this for years. However I'm not yet done. That's why I'm curious about this. Maybe might help not only on US500.

Thanks for reply,

SF

How much you actually want for this indicator?

You can find my email listed on the about me profile. I will tell you via email.

Also, there are multiple ways to pick top and bottom.

I don't know anyone that can do it. Robert Minor is a disgrace, I see his analysis on you tube, based on Elliot waves and fib time its a joke. Another joker is Sentient trader David Hickson, his analysis always ends up well the price could go up or down and his analysis is mostly wrong and very subjective, Bryce Gillmore I think was not to bad picking turns to the day sometimes. Steve Cophen published a book, but having looked at his methods and even his predicted turn in his book they failed to happen. Good in hindsight poor in actual trading. I paid 4K to Vantage Point for their software, when I started and it worked once or twice, but its a trend following program wrapped up in hype and NN predictions, but I could not get it to work.

Sometimes, pattern traders can hit a reversal, mostly nothing works, that I have tried, but after 15 years I developed this idea and it appears to work quite well, in time and price something I thought was the holy grail of trading.

What sparked my desire was that Gann in September 1928 called the top in Wheat, he had no computer, but he carried his square of nine about with him. I reasoned that maybe the Gann Square held the answer. It does, but not in the way anyone uses it. I have never ever seen anyone do what I do, many traders on FF but most are trying to read price and neglect time. I love the idea of market timing and instead of sitting hours wondering when a price level might be hit I have a very good idea of not only the time but the price.

Of course this can be applied to all markets, but I happen to like the indexes because they move so much. Having spent years on forex I can tell you why wast your life trading markets that hardly move.

I can only answer one person a day, so all the people that wrote to me please use my email listed in my profile, I can answer you much faster. I am only going to sell 10 copies of the indicator, so if you want a copy email me.

Yes there are ways to pick turns, but I don't






It is doable. I'm saying this for years. However I'm not yet done. That's why I'm curious about this. Maybe might help not only on US500.

Thanks for reply,

SF

I just want to make it clear to everyone. The indicator is not predicting the turn up. This is based on a Gann idea and previous research, however in some cases after a huge fall the market then descended another 2000 pips on a single daily bar.

I can only predict the next correction point when the down swing is over. The indicator works very well over a period of 3 to 4 days. It is an ideal Swing traders tool.

Just wanted to make it clear to everyone.