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XAUUSD - Investor demand for gold is actively increasing

The XAUUSD pair is correcting in a downtrend at 1764 amid strengthening US dollar positions: the quotes rose from 105.3 to 106.6 in the USD Index due to several factors, including confirmation of the US Federal Reserve's plans to tighten monetary policy. Thus, the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), published yesterday, outlined the department's plans for September, which include raising interest rates by at least 50 basis points to combat record inflation.
Another factor in the local downward dynamics of gold was data on industrial production in China: the figure was 3.8%, which is lower than 3.9% a month earlier and significantly lower than 4.6% expected by analysts, which confirmed investors' fears about the stability of the economy of one of the largest importers and producers of precious metals. On the weekly chart of the asset, the price is above the resistance line of the global downward channel with dynamic boundaries 1780 – 1650. Despite the local slowdown, technical indicators strengthen the buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving above the signal line, while the AO oscillator histogram remains in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 1782, 1847 | Support levels: 1753, 1696

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AUDUSD - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of C ended and a downward correction develops as the wave (2) of C, within which the wave C of (2) develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C has formed, a local correction has formed as the fourth wave iv of C and the fifth wave v of C is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.66 – 0.645. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7134.
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NZDUSD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) of B formed and a downward correction ended as the wave (B) of B. Now, the wave (C) of B has started, within which the first wave of the lower level i of 1 of (C) has appeared and a local correction is developing as the wave ii of 1 of (C).

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the NZDUSD pair will grow to the area of 0.6815 – 0.705. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6066.

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GBPUSD - UK inflation tops 10%

The pound continues to lose positions against the backdrop of weak macroeconomic data and at the moment GBPUSD is correcting around 1.2039. Consumer inflation in the UK, the first among developed countries, exceeded the 10% threshold and amounted to 10.1%, rising from 9.4% a month earlier, with a monthly increase of only 0.6%. Even more worrisome is the Core CPI excluding Food and Energy, climbing to 6.2% from 5.8%, catalysing the Bank of England to be more "hawkish" in terms of monetary tightening.

In turn, the US dollar is holding above 106 in the USD Index, sagging slightly after yesterday's US Retail Sales data. The index in July fell to 0.0% from 0.8% in the previous month, which disappointed analysts who had expected a rise of 1.0%. Obviously, the continuing decline in Retail Sales is a direct consequence of rising prices, which the US Federal Reserve is unable to seriously influence. The Core Retail Sales Index, in turn, also slowed to 0.4% from 0.9% a month earlier. GBPUSD continues to trade within the global downward channel, retreating somewhat from the resistance line. Technical indicators are ready to reverse and give a signal for the start of sales: the range of the Alligator indicator EMAs fluctuations is expanding in the direction of decline, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms descending bars.

Support levels: 1.2000, 1.1756 | Resistance levels: 1.2218, 1.2588

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EURUSD - Employment data in the EU reassured investors

The EURUSD pair moves within a corrective trend around 1.0169. Despite a significant increase in fuel and energy tariffs, the EU economies remain stable, as evidenced by macroeconomic data for the second quarter, published yesterday: gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6% QoQ and by 3.9% YoY in terms of 0.7% and 4.0% predicted but still a positive result. The overall employment rate in the region rose to 163.412M from 162.977M, showing a quarterly increase of 0.3%. However, analysts believe that the economic outlook in the euro area is negative: in the second half of the year, GDP will begin to contract under the pressure of high inflation and disruptions in supply chains, but for now, the European Central Bank (ECB) has enough cushion to raise interest rates in order not to provoke a recession, and this may provide some support for the European currency.

The US currency is held at levels above 106 in the USD Index, as investors have gained some confidence in the further actions of the US Federal Reserve. The minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released yesterday indicate that the agency will continue its hawkish course until inflation returns to its 2.0% target, so a 50.0 base interest rate hike is tentatively scheduled for September. Considering that price growth in July slightly decreased to 8.5% instead of 9.1% earlier, a slowdown in monetary policy tightening can be justified. The trading instrument moves downwards within the global downward channel, reversing at the resistance line. Technical indicators maintain a poor sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars, approaching the transition level.

Resistance levels: 1.0260, 1.0408 | Support levels: 1.0116, 0.9957

AUDUSD - Technical analysis

H4
On the four-hour chart, under the resistance level of 0.7030, a Three Black Crows candlestick analysis pattern was formed, after which the trading instrument showed a decrease to the area of 0.6912. In addition, the Bear Marubozu pattern was included in this model, emphasizing the predominance of sellers. Currently, quotes have formed a Hanging Man figure, which in this situation may mean a continuation of the downtrend. A likely scenario is a decline to the support level of 0.6862, overcoming which will allow the "bears" to go lower, to the levels of 0.6680, 0.6420. An alternative scenario can be realized if the "bulls" hold their positions and the quotes recover to the resistance level: a breakout of the key level of 0.7030 will open the way for buyers to the range of 0.7184–0.7400.

D1
On the daily chart, under the resistance level of 0.7184, a reversal candlestick pattern Evening Doji Star is observed, after which the asset began to decline down to the level of 0.6912. This pattern is a strong signal to alert traders to declining long positions, giving the "bears" an opportunity to correct the price down. A more likely scenario at the moment is a downtrend towards the key support level of 0.6862. A breakdown of this level will mean the final weakening of the "bulls", which will strengthen the downtrend of the instrument to the zone of 0.6680–0.6420.

Support levels: 0.6862, 0.668, 0.642 | Resistance levels: 0.7030, 0.7184, 0.74

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USDJPY - A fall is possible.
On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 develops, within which the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 formed. Now, a downward correction is forming as the fourth wave iv of 3, within which the wave (a) of iv has developed, and the wave (b) of iv is ending.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the USD/JPY pair will fall to the area of 127.06–123.50. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 137.30.
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XAUUSD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction ended as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) formed as a momentum, and the fifth wave (5) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (5) has formed and a local correction is developing as the second wave ii of 1 of (5).

If the assumption is correct, the XAUUSD pair will grow to the area of 1857.25 – 1910.3. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1681.43.

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USDCAD - Canada loses revenue due to lower export fuel prices

The Canadian currency lost its leading position against the US dollar amid a decline in revenues received by the country from energy exports. According to Statistics Canada, the Commodity Price Index lost 7.4% in July. Similar dynamics led to inflation adjusting to 7.6% from 8.1%, but food prices, which are the second key component of the indicator, continued to rise, adding 0.9% in July. This movement is clearly seen in the calculation of Core CPI, excluding Food and Energy prices: the figure corrected to 6.6% from 6.5% a month earlier, and is now the main problem for the Bank of Canada.

In turn, the US dollar continues to grow, the day before exceeding 107 in the USD Index. The main reason for the positive dynamics was the report on Initial Jobless Claims, which for the first time in a long time showed a decrease in the number of applications to 250 thousand after 252 thousand recorded a week earlier, while analysts expected an increase in the number of applications to 265 thousand. On the weekly chart of the asset, the price is trading within a wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.2600–1.3200, rising again towards the resistance line. The EMA fluctuation range on the Alligator indicator signals a possible growth, and the AO oscillator histogram forms new rising bars, being in the sell zone.

Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2739 | Resistance levels: 1.2985, 1.3133

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Crude Oil - Iranian oil exports catalyze global price decline

The situation with the export of Iranian oil has a key influence on the development of the negative dynamics of quotations. At the beginning of summer, experts expressed serious concerns about the global demand for fuel when the supply of cheap Iranian raw materials to the world market was resumed, and now, according to the latest statistics, this figure increased by 30% from March 21 to July 22 and reached 870 K barrels per day, the highest value among all producers in Western Asia. This growth was the most dynamic for the country since 2018, when the US withdrew from the nuclear deal agreement, while Iran's oil revenues increased by 481% in the first four months of the current Iranian calendar year.

Also, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API) report, energy stocks in warehouses in the United States decreased by 0.448M barrels against a forecast of 0.117M. Still, the oil reserves held by local companies, according to the Energy Information Administration The US Department of Energy (EIA), fell by 7.056M barrels after rising by 5.458M barrels last week. Such a sharp change could not go unnoticed, and yesterday's growth of quotations testifies to this.
The situation in the oil market is still very tense, and it is already becoming clear that the OPEC+ plan to increase production levels by a symbolic 100 K barrels per day is just a way to assess the situation and not a measure to support prices, so until the next meeting cartel asset quotes are likely to continue to decline. On the weekly chart of the asset, the price is moving within the local downward channel and soon may again turn to the downside. Technical indicators confirm this probability, holding a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, narrowing the range of fluctuations, and the AO oscillator histogram forms multidirectional bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 93.33, 100 | Support levels: 86.41, 78.55

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XAUUSD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction ended as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) formed as a momentum, and the fifth wave (5) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (5) has formed and a local correction is developing as the second wave ii of 1 of (5).

If the assumption is correct, the XAUUSD pair will grow to the area of 1857.25 – 1910.3. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1681.43.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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The EURUSD pair is trading in a downtrend, currently at 1.003.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is falling within the global corridor with dynamic boundaries 1.024 – 0.97, getting ready to test the key historical support around 1. The four-hour chart shows that the potential for a downward movement is quite high, and the nearest solid support for the trading instrument can only be the initial trend of 61.8% of the Fibonacci extension around 0.9814. If the quotes fix below it, the downward dynamics may continue up to the basic trend of 100.0% on the Fibonacci extension around 0.9494.

Technical indicators keep a sell signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

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NZDUSD - Technical analysis

H4
On the four-hour chart, there is the formation of a Three Black Crows candlestick analysis pattern, which means a continuation of the downtrend. In addition, under the resistance level of 0.6239, another Three Black Crows figure appeared, which confirms the previous pattern and emphasizes the strength of the "bears". However, at the moment, one can see the construction of the Morning Star reversal pattern above the level of 0.6152, which means that a strong support line has formed at the current level, where buyers have activated, but in order to fully confirm the reversal, the "bulls" should consolidate above the resistance level of 0.6239. In this case, the asset can restore positions to the zone of 0.6362 – 0.6475. If the trading instrument reaches the key support level of 0.6102 and consolidates below it, one should expect further downward movement to the range of 0.5929 – 0.5785. D1
On the daily chart, at the level of 0.6362, there is the formation of a Hanging Man reversal pattern, after which the asset showed a decrease to the level of 0.6189. In addition, the movement was accompanied by the formation of the Three Black Crows candlestick analysis model, which included the Shooting Star candlestick. The combination of these figures may mean a continuation of the negative dynamics for the instrument after a short-term price rebound. It is likely that the NZD/USD pair will continue to lose positions after an upward correction to 0.6239, thus testing the broken down level, overcoming which will allow quotes to reach the area of 0.6102, where the buying zone is concentrated. If the "bulls" fail to hold this level, the asset may fall down to the level of 0.5785.

Support levels: 0.6102, 0.5929, 0.5785 | Resistance levels: 0.6239, 0.6362, 0.6475
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Against the background of the growth of the American currency, the GBPUSD pair is correcting around 1.1826.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is falling within the long-term channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.14 – 1.214, preparing to test the year's low at 1.1741. The four-hour chart shows that the year's low coincides with the initial trend of 61.8% on the Fibonacci extension (1.1741), and in the case of consolidation below it, the downward movement may continue and reach the basic trend of 100% on the Fibonacci extension around 1.1400, which corresponds to the support line of the downward channel. Technical indicators confirm the high probability of a downward trend and keep a sell signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

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Due to the continued growth of the US dollar, the AUDUSD pair is correcting, trading around 0.6899.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell again. It stood at 3.4% in July, indicating an acute labor shortage in the national labor market. However, the number of unemployed amounted to 474K, less than 480.0K vacancies. Tomorrow, investors are waiting for the publication of data on business activity indices in the leading sectors of the economy, and there are no signals yet that the decline in indicators will stop. Thus, the value for the service sector may fall below 50.9 points, and for the manufacturing sector – less below 56.2 points.

Another reason for the downward dynamics of the AUDUSD quotes is the growth of the US dollar, which overcame the key mark of 108 in the USD Index yesterday, reacting to the first signs of a change in the trend in the US housing market. The fact is that rates on 30-year mortgage loans, which have been continuously growing since the beginning of the year, corrected in August to 5.13% from 5.22% a month earlier amid a slowdown in inflation from 9.1% to 8.5%, which, in turn, may have a positive impact on the statistics on the housing market, which is experiencing a demand crisis, being at its lows since May 2020. On the global chart of the asset, the trading instrument is correcting within the local downward channel, falling towards the support level. Technical indicators are preparing for a new reversal and have almost given a new sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are preparing to cross the signal line downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram has come close to the transition level.

Resistance levels: 0.6968, 0.7122 | Support levels: 0.6853, 0.6711

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BTCUSD - The fall of "digital gold" may continue

Last week, the BTCUSD pair moderately declined, but the most serious price drop began on Friday when the quotes eventually reached the 20,800 area. "Digital gold" has lost more than 11% in value in two days, and the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has fallen below the psychologically important mark of $1 T.

There is no consensus in the expert community regarding the reasons for such a significant negative trend. Several experts believe that the catalyst was a one-time asset sale by a large investor, which further decreased the price of most digital assets. Analysts also point out that information that the US House of Representatives Committee on Energy and Trade began to study the impact of large mining companies on climate and national energy could lead to a correction. Market participants fear that the investigation could become a source of restrictions or a complete ban on mining in the United States. The decline that began on Friday led to the liquidation of margin positions at 673, which only aggravated the situation and may mean the end of a two-month corrective growth and the resumption of the downward trend. At present, the price has regained some of its lost positions and is around 21,300 but to resume growth, the instrument needs to consolidate above 21,875, and then its targets will be 22,656, 23,437. After the reconsolidation below 21,093, the downward dynamics may resume to 20,312, 19,531, 18,75. A downward reversal of Bollinger bands and an increase in the MACD histogram signal a resumption of the downtrend, while an upward reversal of Stochastic in the oversold zone does not rule out a temporary upside, but its potential looks limited.

Resistance levels: 21875, 22656.25, 23437.5 | Support levels: 21093.75, 20312.5, 19531.25, 18750

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AUDUSD, H4

On the four-hour chart, above the level of 0.6846, there is a formation of a Hammer candlestick pattern, which may warn market participants that the asset is in the area of low prices and will soon begin to unfold. In addition, a Doji pattern was formed, signaling the uncertainty in the market and the equality of the forces of "bulls" and "bears". This pattern usually indicates reversals in the instrument; however, it requires additional "bullish" confirmation in the local basis. Thus, at the moment, it is most likely that the quotes of the AUD/USD pair will fall to the support level of 0.6846, overcoming which will open the way for the "bears" to the zone of 0.6680 – 0.6401. An alternative scenario is possible after fixing the quotes of the trading instrument above the resistance level of 0.7031 with the targets at 0.7184 – 0.7392. AUDUSD, D1
On the daily chart, there is the formation of a Bear Marubozu candlestick analysis pattern, which emphasizes the strength of sellers, as well as the formation of a Three Black Crows figure under the resistance level of 0.7031, which also signals a continuation of the downtrend. Currently, the asset is most likely forming a Falling Three Methods pattern, which is a continuation of the trend and warns that quotes may continue to move down. More likely is a scenario with a downtrend to the level of 0.6846, the overcoming of which will allow sellers to strengthen the movement up to the level of 0.6401.

Support levels: 0.6846, 0.6680, 0.6401 | Resistance levels: 0.7031, 0.7184, 0.7392


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The USDJPY pair is trading around 137.15.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is correcting as part of a global uptrend, the deceleration stage of which increasingly resembles a global Head and shoulders reversal pattern with a Neckline around 132.78. On the four-hour chart, it can be seen that the potential for the development of a downward movement, in this case, will be quite high but to confirm the implementation of the pattern, the quotes of the trading instrument need to reverse from the current prices and not overcome the annual high of 139.35. Technical indicators keep a buy signal: the range of fluctuations of the EMA on the Alligator indicator is expanding upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator has formed the first rising bar after moving into the buy zone.

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The XAGUSD pair continues its local corrective trend and is now around 18.94.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price of the precious metal is declining within the global downward channel with dynamic boundaries at 20 – 16. After reaching the resistance line at 20.9, the trading instrument reversed and formed another wave of decline. The target could be the global support level of 16.68. On the four-hour chart, the downside potential looks quite high, and if the quotes consolidate below the initial trend level of 61.8% on the Fibonacci extension, which coincides with the low of the year at 18.31, there will be no serious support for the price, and the position can be realized. Technical indicators reversed and gave a sell signal: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator is expanding downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram has formed the first downward bar after moving into the sell zone.

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USDCAD - The pair is retreating from local highs

Last Friday, renewed June data on retail sales in Canada was published, which provided little support to the national currency: the core index was 0.8% MoM against the forecast of 0.9%, but in annual terms, the indicator consolidated around 1.1% against the background of preliminary estimates of experts at 0.3%. Retail sales excluding cars for the same period adjusted from 1.9% to 0.8%. Another negative factor that influenced the dynamics of the trading instrument was the publication of the July index of prices for new housing in Canada, which rose by 0.1% but did not live up to the forecast of 0.3% and was worse than the previous value of 0.2%.
As for the US economy, the core retail sales index for July added 0.4%, exceeding the forecast of –0.1%. However, the volume of retail sales for July remained unchanged, showing a value of 0.0%, against the preliminary estimates of 0.1%. Next month, traders expect the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the range of 0.50% to 0.75%, and the market is already pricing this scenario into the value of assets, primarily the US dollar. If the experts' expectations are justified, the US dollar will continue to strengthen, and, accordingly, the USD/CAD pair will rise with the target at the July high of 1.3218. The long-term trend is upwards. The key support area formed in the price range 1.2780–1.2740, and the buyers held it. As a result, the upward dynamics will continue to 1.3157 and 1.3218. The mid-term trend changed to an uptrend last week. The trading instrument broke the target zone 1.2966–1.2945, and the next target is zone 2 (1.3192–1.3170). The key trend support is shifting to 1.2839–1.2818, and in case of correction of quotes to this area, it will be possible to open new long positions.

Resistance levels: 1.3065, 1.3157, 1.3218 | Support levels: 1.2935, 1.2780, 1.2740

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