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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #8,101
  • Aug 15, 2022 3:18pm Aug 15, 2022 3:18pm
Still working thru the postings. Seems the key to the system is to find inference from a higher TF around Frankfurt open which would be H4 close and then H1 close for a couple of hours to get some sort of price direction, possibly SR levels or OBOS or divergence of some kind. Identifying the divergence is going to be tricky for those like myself that are used to get an alert or trading arrow on the chart. I can understand why people just sit on the M5 chart.
Luckily the trading window is small enough for me to concentrate a bit harder on the candle OHLC in between working for a living. I am hoping the guys from the thread beginning are still actively using the system and making the big bucks. Keep it up guys.
  • #8,102
  • Aug 15, 2022 9:55pm Aug 15, 2022 9:55pm
Quoting Nala66
And yes it was also an ABCD before anyone asks.... {image}
Hi Alan, thank you for the lessons. How do you get the Daily Pivot , Daily S1, Daily S2 ....etc?
  • #8,103
  • Aug 15, 2022 10:38pm Aug 15, 2022 10:38pm
Quoting 40PipsAlan
Still working thru the postings. Seems the key to the system is to find inference from a higher TF around Frankfurt open which would be H4 close and then H1 close for a couple of hours to get some sort of price direction, possibly SR levels or OBOS or divergence of some kind. Identifying the divergence is going to be tricky for those like myself that are used to get an alert or trading arrow on the chart. I can understand why people just sit on the M5 chart. Luckily the trading window is small enough for me to concentrate a bit harder on the candle...
The key is to observe the average and what that is doing. Price itself has to lead the average by its nose to get it to the levels we see.

See here below the crossing of the 1 hour EMA and the 1H and Daily. It is not difficult to see price has made the next EMA low.

Do not concern yourselves with price but rather what price has to do to get the average to target levels.

Now the average has made the LL it becomes difficult because we don't know when the bulls are going to try to stop the fall, so we are guessing from here until we get confirmation.
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We can see the bears have run into bullish divergence but price hasn't made much of an attempt to reach back to the EMA so care should be taken here.
  • #8,104
  • Aug 15, 2022 10:39pm Aug 15, 2022 10:39pm
Quoting cylon
{quote} Hi Alan, thank you for the lessons. How do you get the Daily Pivot , Daily S1, Daily S2 ....etc?
Post 8083
  • #8,105
  • Aug 16, 2022 10:01am Aug 16, 2022 10:01am
Hi Alan,
Did you get todays trades done? I could see the Bearish HD on the H1 at London Open but the M5 got me confused before the 40 pip drop.
  • #8,106
  • Aug 16, 2022 11:58am Aug 16, 2022 11:58am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
Hi Alan, Did you get todays trades done? I could see the Bearish HD on the H1 at London Open but the M5 got me confused before the 40 pip drop.
To me that is not an HD just a plain old bear div.

It really blows my mind why you can't see the difference between a plain div and a hidden one. Not your fault because all the text books copy one another declaring an RSI HH when price closes lower as a hidden div but who am I to declare these geniuses wrong.

I still say a hidden divergence is not a hidden divergence unless it is hidden and I have proved this time and time again.
  • #8,107
  • Aug 16, 2022 3:29pm Aug 16, 2022 3:29pm
Just discovered this thread. Is this strategy still valid?
  • #8,108
  • Aug 16, 2022 8:26pm Aug 16, 2022 8:26pm
Quoting Chronal
Just discovered this thread. Is this strategy still valid?
Yes it is.

Remember though, this is more of a journal of how I trade. Extract from it what you will. All the evidence is laid out for you with many examples of the various aspects.

Remember also this is a comprehensive method and just using a single aspect may not work. Like reading a book, one page of it does not tell the whole story.

Enjoy...
  • #8,109
  • Aug 16, 2022 8:47pm Aug 16, 2022 8:47pm
Ok, yesterday I warned of the impending danger of a direction change which did come about.

It was a complicated start. First long on a div, then short on a div then long again for the direction change targeting the daily average (Blue EMA)

We currently have another ABCD and C has been strongly contested before breaking long.

It looks very much like the EMA's are going to cross and align bullish so todays London session should prove interesting. It is what it is though and price has to break the daily for this to happen. There has been a series of bear divs failing to make the EMA so the rule is price makes HH's which it has done.

Currently everything is being squeezed between the EMA's during the Asian session. This is a problem and better not to second guess the market as the bears can easily take this short again. If the bears break the bull support....watch out!
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Several hours to go before 105 and then the story will unfold.
  • #8,110
  • Aug 17, 2022 6:21am Aug 17, 2022 6:21am
Nearly there....
Whoops, had the target under the wrong line...corrected now.
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Note how this one started with a HD again!
  • #8,111
  • Aug 17, 2022 6:31am Aug 17, 2022 6:31am
Bingo 40 pips.
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Looks to me like price will head for the D1 which is also the daily S1, but I am not waiting that long.
  • #8,112
  • Aug 17, 2022 8:19pm Aug 17, 2022 8:19pm
Well after a good nights sleep I see price made the D1... To the pip.!

Look at the 1 hour chart below for the supports. See how price broke the bull support but it shouldn't do this until the bear find support themselves.

So what happens is price pulls back up for the bears to find support after which they effectively take out the bull support and run to the target D1.

This is a common feature so keep an eye on those support levels.

Also when price reached the target D1 it did so in a bullish div which sent price back to the EMA, which is what it is supposed to do.

For today we could be looking at the 1 hour EMA failing to make the LL so price may be pushing for a long. The setups at 105 will tell us.
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  • #8,113
  • Aug 19, 2022 2:34am Aug 19, 2022 2:34am
Bullish divergence on the H1 and bulls and bears fighting on the M5 looking for support.
  • #8,114
  • Aug 19, 2022 3:35am Aug 19, 2022 3:35am
This one is very complicated so widen your ears a tad.

From what I have been talking about the last few days regarding bull and bear supports...

We ask the question how can the bulls get above the EMA to find support when the bear support is too low for them to do that.

The answer is they cannot until the EMA gets below the bear support.

So although we have a HD at the start we can only expect this to be a quick scalp. Get the stop to BE and just grab a few pips profit.
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  • #8,115
  • Aug 19, 2022 4:08am Aug 19, 2022 4:08am
Quoting Nala66
This one is very complicated so widen your ears a tad. From what I have been talking about the last few days regarding bull and bear supports... We ask the question how can the bulls get above the EMA to find support when the bear support is too low for them to do that. The answer is they cannot until the EMA gets below the bear support. So although we have a HD at the start we can only expect this to be a quick scalp. Get the stop to BE and just grab a few pips profit. {image}
One question please. That H1 Bear support being the highest bull candle of the swing?
  • #8,116
  • Edited 6:19am Aug 19, 2022 5:59am | Edited 6:19am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} One question please. That H1 Bear support being the highest bull candle of the swing?
It is the first pull back after crossing the EMA

So if we look at the bigger picture of the 1 hour we see the Bull support and then the first of the Bear supports which had to be above it.

The this strong move had yet another Bull support leaving the old one far behind.

This is why it pays to keep a diary of their positions because they can become so old we lose them in time.

To me I see either side having to find support for their move, not a top or bottom swing which I regard as resistance levels, long or short.
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  • #8,117
  • Aug 19, 2022 6:34am Aug 19, 2022 6:34am
If we look at the 1 min chart we can see many more examples.

Look at the one marked with an X. Price was unable to FIND bull support to take this out so it fails the long.

We could build a nice trading strategy around this.
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  • #8,118
  • Aug 19, 2022 6:36am Aug 19, 2022 6:36am
The golden rule...

It is bearish until it becomes bullish.
and
It is bullish until it becomes bearish.
  • #8,119
  • Aug 19, 2022 9:52am Aug 19, 2022 9:52am
Quoting Nala66
If we look at the 1 min chart we can see many more examples. Look at the one marked with an X. Price was unable to FIND bull support to take this out so it fails the long. We could build a nice trading strategy around this. {image}
Dear Mr. Alan,

i saw your RSI indi so special, it combined both RSI5 and RSI14 and HiD RSI,

if you dont mind, could you please share with us?

Many thanks in advance!
Try to See not to Think
  • #8,120
  • Aug 19, 2022 12:35pm Aug 19, 2022 12:35pm
ok guys,
Approx halfway working thru all the postings and making notes of the important stuff:-
At our proposed trading time, in this case Frankfurt open for a couple of hours or any other high volatility times like US open.
We need to ascertain the trend direction using the Higher TF like daily, H4 and H1:-
Is the 26EMA making HH or LL?
is price action trading above the 26EMA?
In the event of a failed HH or LL then price will go back and retest the last swing point.
Has Bull or Bear support been achieved?
Next we want to see a signal on the H1 for us to get ready to trade:-
Divergence (hidden, regular, RSI) or RSI OBOS, preferably on a ZOO (zone of opportunity) or a SR level.
Then we can drop to the M5 and wait for a same direction signal that we had on the H1.
We can then put on a small test trade taking note of where the nearest SR and EMA is situated.
Once our trade makes enough pips we can move to BE and try and get another stage 2 trade on still watching out for any SR distance.
all being well we can close our trades at +40 pips.
Have I missed anything so far? apart from the hedging trades.


You Da man Nala66, full respect for being able to do all this.

A
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