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Trading Institutional Order Flow

  • #9,961
  • Aug 13, 2022 7:48am Aug 13, 2022 7:48am
Quoting joe123
AUDUSD 30 MIN & DAILY: we could get a counter retracement at this level on 30 min, just take note that the level is not fresh. so only a retracement perhaps. will try short there. this level is holding us back from heading higher into the daily supply{image} daily supply higher up, you can long it by demands on lower time frames. {image}
I did go for a short by the 30min supply which i got knocked out of. but i did mention you could long it by a demand if one presents it self which it did on 1h time frame. looking at these levels for shorts on 6h time frame. perhaps the higher level for me would be a better short although its not fresh. lower level is fresh.
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Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #9,962
  • Aug 15, 2022 7:11am Aug 15, 2022 7:11am
NZDUSD demands.
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Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #9,963
  • Aug 15, 2022 6:36pm Aug 15, 2022 6:36pm
Quoting joe123
{quote} aiming for this supply to short it by, price or more like supply and demand levels are like magnets that attract price to those S&D levels. You'll have lots of opportunities to go long into this the first supply level. we stay above the demands on lower time frames, and up we go. {image}

Quoting joe123
{quote} I dont know if there is such a thing as a weak or strong S&D zone. what i do know is price cant move passed a zone without fist consuming those buyers and sellers. you'll get that move either as a retracement in the opposite direction of the trend or in the direction of the trend. your goal is to trade the bounces between supply and demand levels. sometimes you might get price that engulfs (literally) that demand level, which is because its hit a higher timeframe Supply level. so you do have to be careful still at each level that you pick....
Quoting joe123
{quote} theres also this demand that price needs do consume {image}
this is how price reacted to those level that i had. current price chart for USDCAD. no touches apart from one, but i would consider those levels as consumption. a little annoying sometimes this trading. misses my orders alot. but thats price for you. not exact.
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Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #9,964
  • Aug 15, 2022 11:21pm Aug 15, 2022 11:21pm
AUDUSD supply zone. @Joe123, I hope it is correct.
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  • #9,965
  • Aug 16, 2022 6:57am Aug 16, 2022 6:57am
Quoting pundit78
AUDUSD supply zone. @Joe123, I hope it is correct. {image}
If we go back up to create a new 'lower high' based on a higher time frame, most likely place would be this level in grey (based on this chart alone), although we would need to get back above a supply zone thats within the yellow area, which means we would break LL & LH down trend that we are currently in so we could head higher into that zone.

if you look at a 15 min chart, below that zone in grey, we have other supply zones lower down which would act as a resistance first. so it would take a lot of pressure to head back up there. USD INDEX is heading higher, so that would keep AUD pressure to the down side which will prob not make that area ideal as its a long way off. better to go into lower time frames and look for shorts. or look for a demand zone lower down which is harder to do in my opinion.
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Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #9,966
  • Aug 16, 2022 7:08am Aug 16, 2022 7:08am
went short the EURUSD at a supply level that had strong bearish engulfing candle and created a flag on the way down. we also broke below the previous low which made me think we are now in a down trend.
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Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #9,967
  • Aug 16, 2022 10:00am Aug 16, 2022 10:00am
went short EURGBP
Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #9,968
  • Aug 16, 2022 9:38pm Aug 16, 2022 9:38pm
Quoting joe123
{quote} If we go back up to create a new 'lower high' based on a higher time frame, most likely place would be this level in grey (based on this chart alone), although we would need to get back above a supply zone thats within the yellow area, which means we would break LL & LH down trend that we are currently in so we could head higher into that zone. if you look at a 15 min chart, below that zone in grey, we have other supply zones lower down which would act as a resistance first. so it would take a lot of pressure to head back up there. USD INDEX...
Thanks for detailed explanation
  • #9,969
  • Aug 17, 2022 7:16am Aug 17, 2022 7:16am
Quoting joe123
went short EURGBP
closed out most, leaving the rest at break even.
Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #9,970
  • Aug 18, 2022 3:49pm Aug 18, 2022 3:49pm
I didnt trade this but its a great example.
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Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #9,971
  • Aug 18, 2022 3:55pm Aug 18, 2022 3:55pm
  •  maz19
  • | Joined May 2022 | Status: What you seek is seeking you! | 34 Posts
Quoting joe123
I didnt trade this but its a great example. {image}
Thank you Joe! Wonderful example
  • #9,972
  • Aug 18, 2022 4:34pm Aug 18, 2022 4:34pm
I have indeed missed this noble house created by AKT to better the lives of people. God bless you guys for keeping the group alive . i wish everyone a very great weekend. thank you all.
  • #9,973
  • Aug 18, 2022 6:28pm Aug 18, 2022 6:28pm
might only be a scalp for me. but lets give it a try.
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Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #9,974
  • Aug 18, 2022 6:33pm Aug 18, 2022 6:33pm
Quoting joe123
might only be a scalp for me. but lets give it a try. {image}
look for confirmation on 15-30min
Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #9,975
  • Aug 18, 2022 6:38pm Aug 18, 2022 6:38pm
fresh supply for Dow jones USD index
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Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #9,976
  • Aug 19, 2022 6:34am Aug 19, 2022 6:34am
Quoting joe123
might only be a scalp for me. but lets give it a try. {image}
Didn't have the strength to climb. dollar keeps going up.
Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #9,977
  • Aug 19, 2022 9:26am Aug 19, 2022 9:26am
  •  maz19
  • | Joined May 2022 | Status: What you seek is seeking you! | 34 Posts
ETHUSD 4hr

Hi Joe, I wanted to know about confirmation trade. In this example 4hr chart if I have to see engulfing candle for confirmation how much lower time frame I have to go? Not more than 15mins?

Thank You
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  • #9,978
  • Aug 19, 2022 9:37am Aug 19, 2022 9:37am
  •  maz19
  • | Joined May 2022 | Status: What you seek is seeking you! | 34 Posts
Another example of USDJPY on Daily there is a SZ

But when I go on 1hr time frame to see engulfing I saw one and it got broken and then another engulfing candle was created above it... i am little confused where to keep the stop loss?
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  • #9,979
  • Aug 19, 2022 12:44pm Aug 19, 2022 12:44pm
Quoting joe123
AUDUSD 30 MIN & DAILY: we could get a counter retracement at this level on 30 min, just take note that the level is not fresh. so only a retracement perhaps. will try short there. this level is holding us back from heading higher into the daily supply{image} daily supply higher up, you can long it by demands on lower time frames. {image}
missed the zone, but i would still consider it a consumption of that level on daily.
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Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #9,980
  • Aug 19, 2022 1:46pm Aug 19, 2022 1:46pm
Quoting maz19
Another example of USDJPY on Daily there is a SZ But when I go on 1hr time frame to see engulfing I saw one and it got broken and then another engulfing candle was created above it... i am little confused where to keep the stop loss? {image} {image}
I wont comment on the crypto chart, but,

this USDJPY chart, supply is actually just above your level. its the reason why your supply level didn't work out. i would not consider that to be a supply level what you marked. I tried a short at this level, a small one as the stop is larger then i would normally place.

If you think where the momentum is, its to the upside. so going short at this level is a lower probability trade that it'll work out to take price lower, when in fact price will just go higher. if you look on daily chart, there's strong momentum candles, so you dont really want to be shorting. but i tried a short at a ''supply'' level. at least its one of 2 supply levels.
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on a lower time frame, such as 3h, we have a demand zone lower down, and if you go onto a slightly lower time frame you might find it a little higher. but you see that engulfing candle in yellow, it signals that there is a trend reversal happening. the problem is we have that demand zone just below, and we would need to consume that demand. but in doing so, we might just be creating a new ''higher low' for price to head higher. so the margins of this short that i have is low.
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you dont really want to be shorting this pair at the moment unless you can identify correctly the Supply zones which is hard. and even then you would be shorting in an up trend.

my mental stop is above the zone on 8h which is around £230 that im willing to leave it. perhaps slightly higher up to give it some room. but this supply on 8h, we need to let it develop on this time frame, which probably means leaving it for a few days to see what price does at this level and at this time frame which is 8h.

im basing this trade on the 8h supply, nothing more. the probability of it going much lower is low, which is the reason why i placed a small order as i dont see it having much chance. but lets see.

you joining me for it?
Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
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