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The Swamp

  • #103,321
  • Aug 12, 2022 11:38am Aug 12, 2022 11:38am
This is a trade formation of not trading against the trend and thats one thing I will try to master,Will love to post something like this one day,im still learning
  • #103,322
  • Edited 2:00pm Aug 12, 2022 1:46pm | Edited 2:00pm
COT looks to favor Longs. 0232/0155 looks like a long area. 0232/0224 is more of a sweet spot (it looks like it will go to 0332/25). Where she ends up closing either 0160 or 0232 is likely key. Once these are tested.. That hasn't happened yet. Today will close below 0283. That makes 0232/24 likely, but these may not support it.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,323
  • Aug 12, 2022 2:03pm Aug 12, 2022 2:03pm
SP 500 looks bullish . may go for 4300s and 4400s range next week..
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  • #103,324
  • Edited 2:51pm Aug 12, 2022 2:40pm | Edited 2:51pm
Quoting Boulder
SP 500 looks bullish . may go for 4300s and 4400s range next week.. {image}
I need to trade s/p harder. EU has bounce points here. I think 0413 is the prize... Caution for me because a algo at 1.0805. Mid way at 0351.. It think it drops shortly after the 0413 area. I just need to be mindful about 0805. The year pivots have hit s4 already. It may not be able to get 0.9898 this quarter or year. Maybe 0.82 next year. 0413 area may be the next high. Its only August. I think if it does make a new low below 0.9952.. It has a good chance of bouncing 0.9947/9898 ish.. That bounce should be 400/500 pips.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,325
  • Aug 12, 2022 2:58pm Aug 12, 2022 2:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I need to trade s/p harder. EU has bounce points here. I think 0413 is the prize... Caution for me because a algo at 1.0805. Mid way at 0351.. It think it drops shortly after the 0413 area. I just need to be mindful about 0805. The year pivots have hit s4 already. It may not be able to get 0.9898 this quarter or year. Maybe 0.82 next year. 0413 area may be the next high. Its only August. I think if it does make a new low below 0.9952.. It has a good chance of bouncing 0.9947/9898 ish.. That bounce should be 400/500 pips. {image}
No matter what. EZ is paying more for energy and more for defense. The key words here are "spending more". Spending more on things that were less volatile 7 months ago. Spending more when the stablished trend started in 2008.. This added spending is relatively new. Its not in the chart before 7 months ago. More to come..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,326
  • Aug 12, 2022 8:01pm Aug 12, 2022 8:01pm

Inserted Video
  • #103,327
  • Aug 14, 2022 4:50am Aug 14, 2022 4:50am
Quoting gatorinla
COT looks to favor Longs. 0232/0155 looks like a long area. 0232/0224 is more of a sweet spot (it looks like it will go to 0332/25). Where she ends up closing either 0160 or 0232 is likely key. Once these are tested.. That hasn't happened yet. Today will close below 0283. That makes 0232/24 likely, but these may not support it. {image} {image}
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  • #103,328
  • Aug 14, 2022 9:02am Aug 14, 2022 9:02am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} {image}
yeah. 0413 looks to be wanted. I dont think it will run to 0805/0835..5. But it is possible. I think 0369/0413-0444.x area may cap it. Allow some slippage. once it does get above 0369 it will be in a pool that ends at 0413.x. In the pool it could be forced down violently. 0393 is within that area,
I think it probably will try to clear into that 0369/0413 zone. If it turns there that's fine. Once pa tires of that swing up. The rejection would be the inability to stay above 0393 0369 0351 0283. It did not stay above 0383 this weeks close. That's why I think it needs to find support before a bounce. This is also where I may be wrong. pa is already below 0283 with a week close. That already indicated to me it wants to fall. The COT report leads me to believe it will retry breaking 0283. And if so going to dry up the day pool at 0369/0413. I dont have any risk waiting for that to happen. Its going to 0413 or 0.9898. Where first? I dont know. I dont need to. I just have to wait for it to get there. The pool below 0.9952 is smaller. The old algo starts at 0.9947. Pa was rejected near it. That pool is dry, being 20 years old. The day pool is a above the old multi year low 03xx. 0369/0413 seems like a good place to screw those short who didnt close. If that pool wasn't there, I would rather be short. But it is. I wanted to hold all my shorts with a close below 0283. The pool and Cot leads me to believe 0369/0413 will get a turn. This speculation is where i may be wrong. Closing below 0283 is usually very bearish to me. But if COT and your post about the USD are correct. I left some med supports and support areas. For the possible 0369/0413 run
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,329
  • Aug 14, 2022 10:40am Aug 14, 2022 10:40am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} {image}
hedge funds are short euro dollar,
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,330
  • Aug 14, 2022 5:44pm Aug 14, 2022 5:44pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} {image}
I saw the August updated one. I may be wrong using week and quarter results. The week to me was almost satisfied at 0368. It was so close to 0369, I had to accept it. The day had more room to 0413. I see what you sent thinks, 0368 was enough. I thought it should hit 0369 at the time. Closing below 0283 helped that view on drop. What got me was, it didnt do the day 0369. That's why I went with 0369/0413. Then seeing COT made me think it may go to 0413 to drain that pool. It was something very unusual to me. So I went to the quarter and found 1.0805.5.
Pa did cross its 50% of 0805.5 last week at .0352. Things dont seem smooth. Why did it hit 0369, and drop. That 1 damn pip miss skipped my entry, And after it tried the second time that really messed things up. Anyway I was up on your message in my 0369 thoughts . But when it missed 0369 that screwed me up. I had 2 things that work almost 100% of the time miss by 1 pip. That lead me to wait for a push toward 1.0805. Just above 0368 enough to drain the pool to 0413. Cot just added to that view. It still may be wrong.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,331
  • Aug 14, 2022 5:53pm Aug 14, 2022 5:53pm
0275 does have a pool below it.. Some R at 0283 possible.. A small pool is above 0283. Its at 0288, So if pa can get to 0288, then close below 0283. That may be a good short sign. Closing below 0283 may be more st bearish. It closed below it Friday.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,332
  • Aug 14, 2022 5:59pm Aug 14, 2022 5:59pm
Quoting gatorinla
0275 does have a pool below it.. Some R at 0283 possible.. A small pool is above 0283. Its at 0288, So if pa can get to 0288, then close below 0283. That may be a good short sign. Closing below 0283 may be more st bearish. It closed below it Friday.
Aqua is the day footsteps.. Navy would be the quarter.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,333
  • Aug 14, 2022 6:10pm Aug 14, 2022 6:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Aqua is the day footsteps.. Navy would be the quarter. {image}
Th algo at 0369 wasn't reached. The one closer above at 0413.x. The pool lies between. Price going there (1.0413) or 0.9898. COT favored Longs last week. Closing back above 0283 may be bullish. I posted support areas last week. It closed below 0283 bear side. If it closes above, its Bull side.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,334
  • Aug 14, 2022 7:02pm Aug 14, 2022 7:02pm
Quoting Boulder
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Myx8msBclE
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,335
  • Aug 15, 2022 2:03am Aug 15, 2022 2:03am
into those supports now..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,336
  • Edited 6:26am Aug 15, 2022 2:28am | Edited 6:26am
Quoting gatorinla
0275 does have a pool below it.. Some R at 0283 possible.. A small pool is above 0283. Its at 0288, So if pa can get to 0288, then close below 0283. That may be a good short sign. Closing below 0283 may be more st bearish. It closed below it Friday.
Add these closer ones.. 0227..0232/39. 45.. This current drop is how it would drop normally, after that first touch of 0369. In a day or so that 0227 may be an entry.. 0160 may provide something. 0187 is lighter.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,337
  • Aug 15, 2022 2:54am Aug 15, 2022 2:54am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Th algo at 0369 wasn't reached. The one closer above at 0413.x. The pool lies between. Price going there (1.0413) or 0.9898. COT favored Longs last week. Closing back above 0283 may be bullish. I posted support areas last week. It closed below 0283 bear side. If it closes above, its Bull side. {image}
near mid ways to 0.9898. 0160 is a support level within the blue area. 0155 is mid algo.. 0413/0.9898. Bears want to close below.. Or 0283 may test again.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,338
  • Aug 15, 2022 3:23am Aug 15, 2022 3:23am
Took a long 0194. Will add
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #103,339
  • Aug 15, 2022 3:55am Aug 15, 2022 3:55am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} {image}
S/P 4239 looks interesting. Its actually 4238.x.. with the spread 4239x may be best. Some light support there on a retrace.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #103,340
  • Aug 15, 2022 4:52am Aug 15, 2022 4:52am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} S/P 4239 looks interesting. Its actually 4238.x.. with the spread 4239x may be best. Some light support there on a retrace.
Just woke up..
I am taking a few days off .. .I will be back later this week. .Good luck with your trading... .
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