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Attachments: The Small Turtle System (Donchian Trend +MACD)
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The Small Turtle System (Donchian Trend +MACD)

  • #81
  • Aug 5, 2022 2:39am Aug 5, 2022 2:39am
Quoting jpntrader
Ali, really appreciate the effort and education you provide to us, also at the TMS thread as well. Our way of trading is similar (especially since I converted to the TMS system) so thank you for this. On to the question: What are the settings for the Donchian Trend? I do the charting via Tradingview on PC browser, and enter positions on my phone. Since Tradingview does not have a native Donchian Trend, I am using Supertrend indicator instead (4,3 setting for entry on 15m TF). Instead of APB candle, I am using Heikin Ashi (I guess they are the same...
I don't know if Volume Oscillator (14.28 settings) is available on mt4? I've been looking but can't find it
  • #82
  • Aug 5, 2022 2:39am Aug 5, 2022 2:39am
Quoting jpntrader
{quote} I hope it is okay if I help answering this.. 4H and daily does not have to be in the same direction, but it will be nice if they are the same. That means, your positions goes according to daily continuation move (potentially higher reward). If daily is bearish but 4H is bullish and you took a long: that means you are taking a daily pullback trade (or in other words, daily counter trend trade) If daily is bearish and 4H is bearish and you took a short: congrats, your position is the same with a higher time frame movement, which means potentially...
Thank you very much for sharing, I will try to practice a lot
  • #83
  • Aug 5, 2022 2:53am Aug 5, 2022 2:53am
Quoting tienphuc2910
{quote} I don't know if Volume Oscillator (14.28 settings) is available on mt4? I've been looking but can't find it
I'm not sure about MT4, but when you trade the 4H, you don't need that indicator. It's more suitable for lower time frames.
  • #84
  • Aug 5, 2022 4:22am Aug 5, 2022 4:22am
Last trade for the week.
CADJPY 1H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 55 KB
  • #85
  • Aug 5, 2022 7:21am Aug 5, 2022 7:21am
I am a beginner in learning of coding. Is it possible that I code this trading into a automated EA?
  • #86
  • Aug 5, 2022 7:42am Aug 5, 2022 7:42am
Quoting jpntrader
Last trade for the week. CADJPY 1H {image}
Was lucky I remembered that today is NFP day. Close this trade with a small loss, then the price proceeded to obliterate the rest of the SL

Not my week. Ending the week in a minus.
  • #87
  • Aug 5, 2022 8:03am Aug 5, 2022 8:03am
Quoting sdahao
I am a beginner in learning of coding. Is it possible that I code this trading into a automated EA?
I dont like EA because it dont filter the setups and dont know economic news and cant determine market condition
And some emergency cases need the trader decision
The experienced traders not take all setups that system give him he filter them and take the best if you take all setups you maybe not make good money because market most of the time is sideways
Learning this system for six months and your look for chart were be different from first look in the beginning
Traders like EA because they want to control emotional side but my opinion is the two is the same because the trader will see the EA when working and if it in profit may be close it before it make big win if the EA was in profit and donot close the trade and it turned to loss trader will not use it again the problem is already present so the problem in the trader
Trader must have good behaviour and learn how to deal with losses and losses streak
For me losses has big damage in our emotions and the all solutions is low risk
I tooked this year loss streak of 6 losses
And i donot effected because the total loss was not more than 5%
I risk 1% and close most of position when candle color change and before hit stop
And i have confidence in my system as and myself in losses streak market will make you lose confidence in your self and in your system
And i get this year win streak 10 winners in row that made me more than 22% profit my mind try to make me over confidence and increase lot and risk more but i dont do this because if you want to be consistent profit you must have the behaviour for that
If you can make EA to give us alert for set ups and we make the decision that will be great
Thanks bro
Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
  • #88
  • Aug 5, 2022 8:04am Aug 5, 2022 8:04am
Quoting sdahao
I am a beginner in learning of coding. Is it possible that I code this trading into a automated EA?
The rule is pretty much explainable using "if this then that" logic. Yes sometimes intuition comes into play but the rule is pretty simple, I guess.
I don't do codes so I don't understand; but with the above explanation, do you think it's achievable?
  • #89
  • Aug 5, 2022 9:17am Aug 5, 2022 9:17am
Quoting Alihelmy123
I took 4 trades this week 2 losers 2 winners 2losses=-1.5% 2Winners=+4.8% Profit=4.8-1.5=3.3% Usdjpy 4 hour that may be last trade this week for me if it lost if it win may take another one{image} {image}
i got out in this sell setup when candle color change with small profit that is the important of exit the market who determined the exit not me
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 44.PNG Size: 13 KB
and then taken buy when new setup formed buy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd jpy 5-5.PNG Size: 10 KB
Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
  • #90
  • Aug 5, 2022 10:29am Aug 5, 2022 10:29am
Sdahao

Yes I agree an alert indicator would be much better than an EA
cheers
Geoff
  • #91
  • Aug 5, 2022 5:29pm Aug 5, 2022 5:29pm
Quoting Geoffrey123
Sdahao Yes I agree an alert indicator would be much better than an EA cheers Geoff
Ok
Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
  • #92
  • Aug 5, 2022 6:58pm Aug 5, 2022 6:58pm
Quoting Alihelmy123
{quote} i got out in this sell setup when candle color change with small profit that is the important of exit the market who determined the exit not me {image}and then taken buy when new setup formed buy {image}
CADJPY, Ali?
  • #93
  • Aug 5, 2022 7:58pm Aug 5, 2022 7:58pm
Quoting jpntrader
{quote} CADJPY, Ali?
Usdjpy4 hour
Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
  • #94
  • Aug 5, 2022 11:27pm Aug 5, 2022 11:27pm
Quoting Alihelmy123
{quote} i got out in this sell setup when candle color change with small profit that is the important of exit the market who determined the exit not me {image}and then taken buy when new setup formed buy {image}
Hello Ali,

Come to this USDJPY H4 sample,... your trading system more on DECISION of the Trader Subjectively.

Before the BUY signal ,.,there was SELL signal,... you marked it as SIDEWAYS.

But when become the BUY signal,.. you didnt mark it as SIDEWAYS first ? Its I called it SUBJECTIVELY.

Anyway,.. the system will be good if Traders can win money,.. thats all

Cheers,

Budi Dharma
  • #95
  • Aug 6, 2022 3:22am Aug 6, 2022 3:22am
Quoting budidharma19
{quote} Hello Ali, Come to this USDJPY H4 sample,... your trading system more on DECISION of the Trader Subjectively. Before the BUY signal ,.,there was SELL signal,... you marked it as SIDEWAYS. But when become the BUY signal,.. you didnt mark it as SIDEWAYS first ? Its I called it SUBJECTIVELY. Anyway,.. the system will be good if Traders can win money,.. thats all Cheers, Budi Dharma
Hi Budi, Ali also said that he took that sell signal you mentioned. He said he got out of that sell position and switched to buy.
  • #96
  • Aug 6, 2022 4:38am Aug 6, 2022 4:38am
I know Ali said only take 20 positions max for a month.
But since trading is a probability game with random individual result, but measurable as a group in the long run (given the system is right), you need sample size as large as possible to be able to be profitable.

"Sample size as large as possible" means take as many trade as you can, as much as your resource (fund) allows without blowing up your account.
This is because although Ali said we'll take loss in 1 of every 3 trades, we don't know the distribution of when we'll win and when we'll lose (random distribution with predictable overall result).

With that in mind, I tried to evaluate this week (August 1-5); backtesting every possible trade on 13 pairs that are on my watchlist. Major and cross pairs.

My personal rule:

  1. Entry, exit, etc. need no mention; completely following this Small Turtle System
  2. Trade only on 4H without looking at higher time frames (during live trading, I do take reference from HTF though)
  3. Entry is only between 10 AM to 10 PM, time zone is UTC+9
  4. Set breakeven and take 50% partial at 1.2R, full TP at 2R
  5. 2% risk per trade

In total, I got 11 trades: 4 wins, 3 losses, 2 BE, and 2 small losses (for the purpose of this simulation, let's say -0.5% each).
With those results, at the end of the week, I managed to gain 7.8% for the week.
Pretty solid, eh.

Of course, if you are on a funded account that has daily drawdown limit, the number of trades will not be the same as the above statistics, as quite a number of trades happen on the same day which won't be wise to take them all on a funded account (for example, on August 1 itself I already had 7 trades).

So yeah, just giving people here a glimpse of the probability situation with this system.

  • #97
  • Aug 6, 2022 5:44am Aug 6, 2022 5:44am
Quoting budidharma19
{quote} Hello Ali, Come to this USDJPY H4 sample,... your trading system more on DECISION of the Trader Subjectively. Before the BUY signal ,.,there was SELL signal,... you marked it as SIDEWAYS. But when become the BUY signal,.. you didnt mark it as SIDEWAYS first ? Its I called it SUBJECTIVELY. Anyway,.. the system will be good if Traders can win money,.. thats all Cheers, Budi Dharma
bro ,here i put the sell setup in this post https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post14089490 because there is engulfing bar return from weekly resistance and the next candle broken the range then go out in the small blue candle
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd jpy 66.PNG Size: 9 KB

and taken buy when the big blue candle broken the weekly resistance
and macd broken zero line
the market was moving in small candle then come big candle broken the range and weekly resistance with high momentum
we cannot determine until where the market will move in our direction but we mange the trade by exit point when market give us signal
I hope I made it clear
Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
  • #98
  • Aug 6, 2022 5:49am Aug 6, 2022 5:49am
[quote=jpntrader;14091569] full TP at 2R 2% risk per trade In total,
for me better when market still moving in your direction do not get out with 2%
because there are big trends that make very big winners more than 5%
it also depend on your rule but this my opinion
Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
  • #99
  • Aug 6, 2022 5:54am Aug 6, 2022 5:54am
RISK MANGMENT GOOD LEARNING VIDEO
Inserted Video
Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
  • #100
  • Aug 6, 2022 5:58am Aug 6, 2022 5:58am
[quote=Alihelmy123;14091600]
Quoting jpntrader
full TP at 2R 2% risk per trade In total, for me better when market still moving in your direction do not get out with 2% because there are big trends that make very big winners more than 5% it also depend on your rule but this my opinion
You're correct. It's choosing between "getting more 2R reached but miss the big moves" or "getting only a fraction of your position most of the time due to not locking the whole profit at 2R, but occasionally you get big winners"

How about you, Ali, do you take partials + BE then let the profit runs wherever it likes?
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