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MasterCard - A fall is possible

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) ended, and a downward correction forms as the fourth wave (4), within which the wave A of (4) develops. Now, the third wave iii of A is developing, within which the wave of the lower level (iii) of iii is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the price of the asset will fall to the levels of 256.65 – 211.4. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 367.5.
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Visa - The price is in a correction and may grow.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) formed, and a downward correction forms as the fourth wave (4). Now, the wave A of (4) has formed, and the wave B of (4) is developing, within which the wave a of B has formed.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the wave b of B the price will grow to the levels of 226.95 – 236.61. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 185.7.
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The shares of PayPal Holdings, an American debit payment processor, correct at 88.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving above the resistance line of a wide downwards channel with dynamic boundaries of 50 – 80, holding at the local high of June 8 at 89. On the four-hour chart, it is seen that the probability of the continuation of the upward dynamics is quite high. If the breakout of the local high occurs soon, the quotes will head towards the annual peak around 122. Technical indicators confirm the high probability of growth, keeping a stable buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator remain above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms rising bars in the buying zone.

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MasterCard - A fall is possible

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) ended, and a downward correction forms as the fourth wave (4), within which the wave A of (4) develops. Now, the third wave iii of A is developing, within which the wave of the lower level (iii) of iii is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the price of the asset will fall to the levels of 256.65 – 211.4. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 367.5.
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EURUSD - Statistics from the EU prevent further growth of the asset

The German economy is rapidly plunging into a crisis, and the retail sales volume, which fell into negative territory in June, amounting to –1.6% instead of 1.2% in May, confirms this trend. The indicator has already lost 8.8% YoY, an absolute anti-record in the entire history of observations. Statistics for the euro area show a negative trend: July Manufacturing PMI amounted to 49.8 points, which is lower than 52.1 points in the last month, comparable to the lows of spring 2020. The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, heading towards the resistance line.

Resistance levels: 1.0262, 1.041 | Support levels: 1.0115, 0.9951


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USDJPY - The medium-term trend reversed downwards

The USDJPY pair moved to growth as a result of escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and China against the background of the visit of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, to Taiwan. Now the trading instrument is around 133.16.

Despite serious threats from the PRC, no one interfered with the landing of the official’s plane, but her arrival in the country caused sharp condemnation from the Chinese authorities, who announced the start of large-scale military exercises around the island in response. Pelosi visited Parliament and expressed hope for increased political and economic cooperation with Taipei. In turn, official Beijing reacted by imposing trade sanctions against Taiwan, which is especially dangerous given the current crisis: in particular, the import of citrus fruits and two types of fish products, as well as the supply of sand, will be stopped. In the face of political tension, investors traditionally avoid risky assets and prefer to buy the US dollar and gold. The USDJPY pair rebounded from the key long-term uptrend support at 131.40, and the likely upward target is now the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (134.87) superimposed on July downside momentum. If it is held, the negative dynamics will continue in August, but in case of the breakout, buyers will target 137.18. The medium-term trend reversed downwards last week, and as a result of the fall, the target zone 2 (131.33–130.95) was reached, from where an upward correction is now developing, the target of which is to test the key trend resistance 134.64–134.24, after which new short positions can be considered with the target at the low of the current week.

Resistance levels: 134.87, 137.18 | Support levels: 131.40, 126.49


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AUDUSD - A fall is possible

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of C developed, and a downward correction forms as the wave (2) of C, within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C has formed, and a local correction has ended as the fourth wave iv of C.

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will fall within the wave v of C to the levels of 0.66 – 0.645. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7044.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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The shares of Tesla, an American electric car maker, are correcting around 921.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving within the global downward channel with dynamic boundaries 1050 – 560 and is trying to approach the resistance line. On the four-hour chart, the signal is being processed after overcoming the upper limit of the local Triangle pattern around 755. There may be obstacles in the way of further upward movement of quotes, and the first serious of them may be the local resistance level of 955, which the trading instrument can reach today. Technical indicators signal continued growth
Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming bars with an uptrend in the buying zone.

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GBPUSD - Markets expect the US Federal Reserve to continue raising the rate

Yesterday, the analysts of the large bank UBS Group published a forecast regarding the prospects for the national currency for the autumn period, suggesting a decrease in quotations to 1.1500. Among the key reasons for the negative dynamics, experts cite high prices for electricity and energy resources amid the escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine, as well as problems in supply chains. Macroeconomic statistics confirm the deterioration of indicators: according to data for July, Composite PMI fell to 52.1 points from 53.7 points in June, and Services PMI corrected to 52.6 points from 54.3 points a month earlier and this is the lowest value since March 2021. The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, coming close to the resistance line.

Resistance levels: 1.2244, 1.2651 | Support levels: 1.2059, 1.1818


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NZDUSD - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) of B formed, and a downward correction develops as the wave (B) of B, within which the wave C of (B) forms. Now, the fifth wave v of C has appeared, within which the wave (iii) of v has ended, a local correction has ended as the wave (iv) of v, and the wave (v) of v has started.

If the assumption is correct, the NZDUSD pair will fall to the levels of 0.591 – 0.58. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6352.


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USDCAD - Canadian unemployment forecast to rise

Analysts predict the first increase since May 2021 in the average unemployment rate from 4.9% to 5.0% in July, which may be caused by macroeconomic statistics: for example, business activity in the manufacturing sector in July fell to 52.5 points from 54.6 points a month earlier, and this is the fastest rate of decline since February 2021. Also, today will be published June data on building permits issued, the number of which may decrease by 1.5% after May's growth of 2.3%.

The US dollar is holding above 106 in the USD Index ahead of today's publication of unemployment data: Initial Jobless Claims may slightly increase to 259.0K from 256.0K, and against the background of poor last week's results, even such a slight increase will be perceived positively. Experts also note the negative forecasts regarding Friday's report on employment in the non-agricultural sector, where it is possible to reduce the number of jobs to 250.0K from 372.0K a month earlier. On the global chart of the asset, the price is moving within a wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.26 – 1.32, trading in the middle of the range. Indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range began to narrow again, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms ascending bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.29, 1.3041 | Support levels: 1.2785, 1.2643

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XAGUSD - The price resumed growth after a two-month fall

The Caixin July Services PMI in China edged up 1 point to 55.5 points, while the S&P Global July Composite PMI in the US came in above expectations at 47.5 points at 47.7 points, according to the latest data. The indicator in the US services sector in the United States also exceeded the forecast of 47.0 points and amounted to 47.3 points, while the volume of industrial orders for June increased by 2.0% MoM, which is higher than the analysts' forecast of 1.1%, and the previous indicator 1.8%. The economies of the two largest consumers of silver are showing optimistic data, which suggests an increase in demand for the precious metal, which is involved in various production chains. However, the trading instrument is still in a long-term downtrend, and the level of 20.51, tested this week, is a strong resistance level: if market participants hold this level, then the decline is likely to continue with the target at 18.22, and if this level is broken, level up, the price will tend to test the trend line at 22.39. Last week, the medium-term trend changed to an uptrend, and the quotes broke the target zone of 19.78–19.63. Now the growth target is zone 2 (21.28–21.13), and the key support is shifting to 19.00–18.85, upon reaching which investors will have the opportunity to consider new purchases of XAGUSD.

Resistance levels: 20.51, 22.39 | Support levels: 18.22, 17.10

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USDJPY - The pair is in a correction, a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) develops, within which the wave 3 of (1) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 has ended, and a downward correction is forming as the fourth wave iv of 3, within which the wave (a) of iv has formed.

If the assumption is correct, after the correction (b) of iv the USDJPY pair will fall to the levels of 127.06–123.5. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 139.39.

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NZDUSD - New Zealand labor market statistics disappointed investors

The dynamics were largely due to a disappointing report on the labor market in New Zealand: the Q2 unemployment rate rose to 3.3% from 3.2%, although analysts had expected a decline to 3.1%, and the percentage change in employment from the previous quarter did not happen at all with forecasts of growth of 0.4%. According to statistics, the share of the economically active population decreased to 70.80%, while preliminary estimates of the figure were 71.00%. To the labor market, the commodity price index has also shown negative dynamics for the fourth month in a row: the value lost 2.2% after falling by 0.4% a month earlier, and in such conditions, we cannot speak of stable growth of the NZDUSD pair. The trading instrument is moving within the global downtrend, correcting towards the local resistance. Technical indicators maintain a stable buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms rising bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6329, 0.6556 | Support levels: 0.6238, 0.6061

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XAUUSD - Growth is possible

On the daily chart, a downward correction developed as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) formed as a momentum. Now, the fifth wave (5) is starting, within which the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (5) is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the XAUUSD pair will grow to the levels of 1857.25 – 1910.3. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1681.43.


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USDCHF - Quotes are preparing to continue a local decline

The Consumer Price Index in July compared to the previous month showed no changes with an expected decline of 0.1%, as well as remaining at 3.4% YoY, while analysts expected growth of 3.5%. Also, the results of a survey conducted by the Swiss Ministry of Economics, which showed that the Consumer Sentiment Index fell to its lowest level since 1995 at –53.5 points, although at the beginning of the year this figure was 43.2 points, raise serious concerns.

On the global chart of the asset, the price is correcting within the downward corridor, preparing to continue the local decline. Technical indicators maintain a steady sell signal, the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is in the sell zone, forming multidirectional bars.

Support levels: 0.9485, 0.9271 | Resistance levels: 0.9604, 0.9818


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EURUSD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level developed as the wave (B), within which the wave C of (B) formed, and the upward wave (C) started. Now, the entry first wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (C) is forming, within which the wave iii of (i) is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will grow to the levels of 1.0612 – 1.0787. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0082.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

USDCHF - Technical analysis

H4
On the four-hour chart, there is the formation of a Three Black Crows candlestick analysis pattern, which means a continuation of the downtrend and emphasizes the unstable position of the "bulls". At the moment, above the support level of 0.9396, a Bearish Engulfing Pattern has formed, which signals about increasing sales volumes. If the "bulls" fail to hold it, one should expect an increased downtrend up to the level of 0.9227. An alternative scenario is possible if buyers overcome the resistance level of 0.9496 with further recovery of positions in the zone of 0.9619–0.9728. D1
The daily chart shows the formation of a Bear Flag price pattern, from which the price broke down. In addition, the negative trend is accompanied by the formation of a long red candle, the "bearish" Marubozu, which emphasizes the strength of sellers. In the current situation, the "bearish" trend is expected to continue and the price pattern to end at the level of 0.9227. The turning point for the "bulls" may be an impulse breakdown of the level of 0.9496.

Support levels: 0.9396, 0.9307, 0.9227 | Resistance levels: 0.9496, 0.9619, 0.9728

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Silver - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level ended as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) formed, and the third wave (3) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) is forming, within which the wave (i) of I is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will grow to the area of 22.47 – 25.4. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 19.5.
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Crude Oil - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (1) of C ended, and a downward correction develops as the second wave 2 of (1) of C, within which the wave a of 2 forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of a is developing, within which the wave v of (iii) is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the price of the asset will fall to the area of 82.3 – 67. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 103.55.
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