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AUDUSD, H4

On the four-hour chart, at 0.6860, there is the formation of the Three advancing white soldiers pattern, meaning buyers have seized the initiative and intend to restore positions. In turn, the appearance of the Three “bullish” steps pattern also signals the continuation of the upward dynamics, and the “bullish” Marubozu pattern indicates the predominance of “bullish” sentiment. In the current situation, the asset will most likely continue to recover to the resistance level of 0.7037, which will allow the quotes to head to the zone of 0.7191−0.7397. An alternative scenario is possible after the consolidation below the support level of 0.6860, and then the downward movement may intensify to 0.6437.
AUDUSD, D1
On the daily chart, a Falling wedge price pattern is being formed, from which the asset managed to break up, but its implementation has not yet been completed. The “bullish” mood for the instrument is also confirmed by a series of formed Three “bullish” steps figures, which serve as signals for the continuation of the uptrend. Most likely, the trading instrument will strengthen the upward dynamics to 0.7037, consolidation above which will become a catalyst for the movement of quotations to the area of 0.7191−0.7397.

Support levels: 0.686, 0.6686, 0.6437 | Resistance levels: 0.7037, 0.7191, 0.7397


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EURUSD - The decision of the US Federal Reserve disappointed investors

This week, within the framework of an extraordinary meeting, the energy ministers of the EU countries reached a compromise on the issue of reducing the consumption of "blue fuel" by 15% from the average level over the past five years. The emergency plan, developed in the event of a complete cessation of energy supplies from Russia, assumes a decrease in the volume of gas used in the upcoming winter heating season, starting from August this year to the end of March 2023. The driver for the decision was the reduction in the volume of fuel transported through the Nord Stream gas pipeline to 1/5 of the throughput capacity due to technical work carried out on the gas turbine engine. The market took this as a signal of an escalation of political tension between Russia and the European Union. Nevertheless, despite the decrease in the volume of supplies, the filling of gas storage facilities continues and, according to experts, may reach 80% by November 1. As for the state of the economies of the EU countries, the situation continues to deteriorate, and, as shown by the German consumer climate index for August, the decline in the indicator increased to –30.6 points, which is the absolute minimum in the history of observations. The trading instrument moves within the global downward channel, rising towards the resistance line. Technical indicators hold a sell signal, which is weakening: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator is approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram continues to form upward bars.

Support levels: 1.0112, 0.9952 | Resistance levels: 1.0259, 1.0494


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USDJPY - The epidemiological situation in Japan is rapidly deteriorating

According to the World Health Organization, Japan has come out on top in the world in terms of the daily increase in the incidence of coronavirus. More than 200.0K cases of infection were registered yesterday, which has already become the reason for limiting the work of several large industries. The country is fighting the seventh wave of the pandemic. The country's southernmost prefecture, Okinawa, has been hardest hit by the new outbreak, according to authorities, but Tokyo, Osaka, and Hokkaido prefectures in the far north are also on the rise. However, the government does not intend to introduce strict quarantine restrictions soon, citing low mortality and urging the population to get vaccinated. Macroeconomic indicators also show negative dynamics, with the leading indicators index down 1.7% after rising 2.1% in June, and foreign investment in Japanese stocks fell to 298.1B yen this week from 475.0B yen earlier. The trading instrument is within the global uptrend, declining to the support line. Technical indicators keep a buy signal, which is actively weakening: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range narrows and the AO oscillator histogram forms new downward bars, approaching the transition level.

Support levels: 134.74, 132.16 | Resistance levels: 136.86, 139.34


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XAUUSD - Investors turn to gold in anticipation of a US recession

Investors continue to monitor the economic situation in the US. Today, data on Q2 GDP will be presented, and preliminary estimates of experts have recorded a resumption of positive dynamics, reaching a value of 0.5% after falling by 1.6% in the previous period. However, since the publication of statistics for the first quarter, US Federal Reserve officials raised the interest rate by 1.50%, and inflation accelerated from 7.0% to 9.1%, which is completely contrary to positive forecasts. Traders are focused on the comments of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who will make a speech immediately after the release. Earlier, the official stated the need to reduce inflation, considering preserving a strong economy. While a recession is becoming inevitable, she says there are no signs of a downturn. On the daily chart, the formation of a wide downwards channel with dynamic boundaries 1800 – 1650 continues, and now the price is growing towards the resistance line. Technical indicators weaken the sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are actively approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram, being in the sell zone, is forming new rising bars.

Support levels: 1717, 1681 | Resistance levels: 1752, 1808

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ADAUSD - Ambiguous trading dynamics

The growth of cryptocurrency quotes was due to monetary reasons. Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve chose a more cautious tactic of tightening monetary parameters, increasing the interest rate by only 75 basis points instead of 100 basis points, as predicted by many experts. The regulator also recognized the possibility of reducing the indicator's adjustment rate to assess the impact of the steps taken on the state of the national economy. These statements put pressure on the US currency and strengthened the positions of the main competitors, including digital assets. However, the current quote rise may be temporary, as long-term pressures on the cryptocurrency market persist. First, the US Federal Reserve is not at all abandoning its intended "hawkish" course to fight inflation, and even if its pace slows down, the tightening policy is likely to continue. Also, in the context of the global economic crisis, interest in risky assets is declining, which is also reflected in the dynamics of cryptocurrency rates.

Short-term support for the quotes of the ADAUSD pair may be provided by the launch of the Vasil update, scheduled for August. The hard fork should lead to a significant increase in network scalability and expand the use of smart contracts. However, even with great technical improvements, monetary and economic factors will continue to pressure the instrument's positions. The ADAUSD pair continues to trade in a long-term downtrend. However, in the last few months, the decline has slowed down. Currently, the key "bearish" level is the middle line of Bollinger bands (0.47). After its breakdown, the quotes can return to 0.4395 and 0.4170, otherwise, growth will resume around 0.5371 and 0.5860.

Resistance levels: 0.5371, 0.5859, 0.61 | Support levels: 0.47, 0.4395, 0.417

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General Electric - Growth on the back of a strong quarterly report

The company's financial report for the second quarter exceeded analysts' expectations, allowing the issuer's shares to consolidate in an uptrend. Thus, the total volume of orders amounted to 18.7B dollars, which is 2% higher than the same period a year earlier, and the volume of organic orders increased by 4.0%. Total GAAP revenue was recorded at 18.6B dollars, up 2% from last year. Adjusted revenue beat market estimates for the first time in the last six quarters, standing at 17.9B dollars versus 17.30B dollars expected. GAAP adjusted earnings per share were 0.78 dollars. In their full-year forecast for 2022, General Electric Co. expects earnings per share to remain at the lower end of the 2.8–3.5 dollars per share range. The asset is being corrected within the global downward channel, moving away from the support line. The technical indicators reversed and gave a new buy signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands upwards, while the histogram of the AO oscillator has moved into the buy zone and is forming upward bars.

Support levels: 67.25, 60.1 | Resistance levels: 73.3, 85.2


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NZDUSD, H4

On the four-hour chart, at the support level of 0.6223, a Marubozu pattern is forming, signaling that the buyers have seized the initiative. The appearance of two Hammer patterns also confirms the strengthening of the "bullish" sentiment. In the current situation, the continuation of the upward trend towards the resistance level of 0.6371 is possible, consolidation of the price above which will allow the asset to recover lost positions and head to the area of 0.6541− 0.6711. If the "bears" break the support level of 0.6223, the negative dynamics will develop to 0.5920. NZDUSD, D1

On the daily chart, there is a falling Wedge price pattern, from where the price of the trading instrument went upwards. Its development has not yet been completed, and the upward dynamics of quotations are intensifying. It is confirmed by forming a series of Hammer reversal patterns, signaling the bottom has been reached. Currently, the price is trying to break the resistance level of 0.6371. If successful, the quotes will continue to move to the area of 0.6541− 0.6711.

Support levels: 0.6223, 0.6106, 0.592 | Resistance levels: 0.6371, 0.6541, 0.6711


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Crude Oil - A fall is possible

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (1) of C formed, and a downward correction forms as the second wave 2 of (1) of C, within which the wave a of 2 develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of a is developing, within which the wave iv of (iii) and the wave v of (iii) are forming.

If the assumption is correct, Crude Oil price will fall to the levels of 82.3 – 67. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 103.55.



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The shares of Walmart, the US company that operates the world's largest wholesale and retail chain, are in the 132 area.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is correcting after a significant decline, forming a local ascending channel with boundaries of 120–135. On a four-hour chart, the asset approached the solid resistance line of the 134 range, formed at the end of January 2022, and continued growth is possible only if the quotes consolidate above it. Technical indicators confirm the continuation of the corrective upward dynamics, holding a buy signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands upwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms ambiguous bars in the buying zone.


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Silver - Growth is possible

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level developed as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) formed. Now, the formation of the third wave (3) has started, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (3) is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will grow to the levels of 21.55–22.47. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 18.27.



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GBPUSD - Trading within the global downward channel

At the end of last week, almost 80% of all train traffic in the country came to a halt, paralyzing the domestic supply chains of goods due to the strike of railway workers, caused by a sharp increase in prices for food and goods, which has been going on since the beginning of summer. Also, the British pound is negatively affected by macroeconomic statistics: the volume of mortgage lending in June fell to 5.27B pounds from 8.04B in May, while the volume of private net loans fell to 7.1B from 8.9B a month earlier. The reason for the negative dynamics of the indicator was the active increase in the interest rate, which prevents consumers from planning the cost of loans. The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, approaching the resistance line. Technical indicators reversed and gave a stable buy signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range expands upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming rising bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 1.2268, 1.2652 | Support levels: 1.2063, 1.1757


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NZDUSD - New Zealand housing market is stable
Yesterday, Statistics New Zealand (Stats NZ) released its June report on the state of the housing market: building permits decreased by 3.0% from the May dynamics of –0.5%, and the adjusted value lost 2.3% compared to 0.5% recorded earlier. However, there is a positive trend: the actual number of houses built in June amounted to 50.736K, which is 14% more than last year, and the number of new houses per thousand residents is 9.9 units against 8.7 units. This statistic may indicate that the global construction market is stable, and the local slowdown does not seriously impact it. The trading instrument is moving within the global downtrend, rising towards the local resistance. Technical indicators reversed and gave a signal to buy: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line upwards, and the AO oscillator histogram moved into the buying zone, forming several upward bars.

Resistance levels: 0.6332, 0.6555 | Support levels: 0.6237, 0.6081

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CAC 40 - French stock market continues to rise

Macroeconomic data for Q2 2022 showed an increase in the Gross Domestic Product of France by 0.5% compared to the previous period, which saw a slowdown of 0.2%, while at an annualized rate the economy grew by 4.2%, exceeding forecasts of the analysts at 3.7%. Consumer prices in June added 0.3% after increasing by 0.7% in May, leading to a decrease in annual inflation to 6.1%, which is a fairly positive result compared to the general statistics in the eurozone (8.9%).

In turn, in the corporate sector, the financial conglomerate BNP Paribas SA reported income of 12.78 billion euros in the second quarter, exceeding the expectations of market experts, who assumed the figure was at the level of 12.38 billion euros. Despite the fact that energy and gas company Engie SA's revenue showed a significant drop compared to the previous period, amounting to 17.57 billion euros, nevertheless, it exceeded preliminary market estimates at the level of 15.5 billion euros. Renault SA did not disappoint investors either, reporting revenue of 11.9 billion euros, up from 9.75 billion euros a quarter earlier. The asset quotes have left the limits of the global downtrend, having overcome the resistance line. Technical indicators maintain a steady buy signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are steady above the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator, having moved to the buy zone, is forming ascending bars.

Support levels: 6272, 5837 - Resistance levels: 6566, 6888

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EURUSD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level developed as the wave (B), within which the wave C of (B) formed. Now, the upward wave (C) has started, within which the entry first wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (C) is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will grow to the levels of 1.0612–1.0787. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0082.


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GBPUSD - The pair may grow.
On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) formed, and a downward correction ended as the second wave (2). Now, the development of the upward third wave (3) has started, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (3) is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the GBP/USD pair will grow to the levels of 1.2495 – 1.2674. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1892.

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USDCHF - American currency is actively losing ground

The dynamics of the franc are rather negative since there are still no factors for its growth, and investors perceive the published macroeconomic statistics as neutral: the index of economic expectations published monthly by the Leibniz Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim (ZEW) reached –57.2 in July, which was better than the absolute June anti-record of –72.7 points but it is still lower than the peak of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The Zurich Polytechnic Federal Institute (KOF) Switzerland's index of leading economic indicators has been declining for fifteen consecutive months, and in July, the indicator was 90.1 points, falling from 95.2 points in June. Given that it is a leading indicator of the gross domestic product (GDP) trend, it can be assumed that the growth of the Swiss economy will continue to slow down in the second quarter. On the weekly chart of the asset, the price is correcting within the possible Head and shoulders pattern, preparing to continue a local decline. Technical indicators have completely reversed and gave a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram moved into the sell zone, continuing to form down bars.

Resistance levels: 0.954, 0.97 | Support levels: 0.9462, 0.9304

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Gold is correcting at 1774 amid strengthening of the downtrend of the US dollar, which fell from 108 to 105 in the USD Index, acting as a catalyst for the movement of capital into safe-haven assets.

Swap dealers have seen a record liquidation of short positions since the week before last, and the continuation of this trend may mean that the trend in gold is likely to change soon. The report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also showed a decrease of 5.153K contracts in this category, which significantly reduced the difference in the accumulated positions. Now buyers have 92.205K contracts, and sellers have 174.234K contracts.

The situation on the gold market is developing in such a way that the balance of sellers and buyers may soon change in favor of the latter. At the very least, the number of general speculative positions backed by money obviously slowed down the decline: if in early July they were adjusted by an average of 15 - 20K contracts per week, last week the reduction was only 2.3K contracts. On the global chart of the asset, the formation of a wide descending channel with dynamic boundaries 1780 – 1650 continues, and now the price is making its first attempt to overcome the resistance line. Technical indicators weaken a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator have almost approached the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming upward bars, approaching the transition level.

Support levels: 1753, 1696 | Resistance levels: 1787, 1847

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Nasdaq 100 - Correction in the dollar is a catalyst for the growth of the stock market

As for the corporate segment, it is not planned to publish new financial reports of companies until Wednesday, but investors are assessing the impact of the fundamental background on the issuers' quotes. Thus, the shares of the aircraft manufacturer Boeing Co. showed rapid growth amid reports that the specialists of three factories for the production of military aircraft in Missouri decided to postpone their strike, as management presented new terms of the working contract. The growth is also shown in the stocks of the largest Chinese company operating in the field of Internet commerce, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., after the negative regarding the possible delisting of the company from the NYSE exchange was leveled.

The situation in the domestic bond market, where the downward correction continues, also contributes to the growth of stock indices. Thus, the yield rate on popular 10-year securities is 2.543% and today it is decreasing by 2.39%, and the yield on conservative 20-year bonds has dropped to 3.069%, having lost 1.55% since the beginning of trading. The index quotes continue to form a global descending channel, approaching the resistance line. Technical indicators are in the state of a buy signal: fast EMAs on the alligator indicator continue to stay above the signal line and expand the range of fluctuations, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is steadily increasing in the buy zone.

Support levels: 1268, 11810 | Resistance levels: 13090, 13880


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ETHUSD - The decline may continue

This week, the ETHUSD pair is correcting downwards, losing the positions won last week, against the background of a possible slowdown in the pace of monetary policy tightening in the USA and the expectation of an early transition of the Ethereum network to the PoS proof algorithm.

Experts note that there is "fatigue" in the market from the constant news about the approaching merger of the Ethereum 1.0 and Ethereum 2.0 networks. Most investors have already put money in the purchase of ETH and are now waiting for an immediate update, which is scheduled for mid-September. Up to this point, observers do not rule out the continuation of the pair's decline or its consolidation.

In addition, the overall pressure on the market is exerted by monetary factors. Despite the possibility of reducing the pace of interest rate hikes, which was mentioned last week by the head of the US Fed Jerome Powell, the regulator will not give up tightening monetary policy to combat inflation and will spend it for a considerable time, strengthening the position of the US currency in relation to competitors. The price has corrected to the area of 1570, but for further serious decline it will need to consolidate below the strong support level of 1500 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, Fibo retracement 23.6%). In this case, the reduction targets will be 1375 and 1250. The key for the "bulls" remains the level of 1750, the breakout of which will give the prospect of resuming growth to the levels of 1875 (, Fibo retracement 38.2%), 2000, and 2125.

Resistance levels: 1750, 1875, 2000, 2125 | Support levels: 1500, 1375, 1250


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