Morning Briefing

Dear Forum Members,

We will be posting our daily forecasts on global Stocks, Commodity, Forex and Interest Rates markets here.
Hope this will be helpful for your trading.

With thanks and best regards
Kshitij Team

26 Jul 22. 0849 IST or 0319 GMT or 2319 EST

Good Morning!

Dow is attempting to bounce higher towards 32800-33000 while Dax needs a strong rise past 13400 to pave way for further bullishness. Nikkei can soon end its corrective dip and head towards 28000 in the medium term while Shanghai is ranged for now. Nifty fell yesterday but can remain in a range of 16500-16800 for now.

Brent and WTI have rebounded sharply but could test immediate resistance at 107.5 and 100 respectively. A break above the resistances, if seen, can be further bullish in the coming sessions. Gold has bounced back from 1710 and could rise further in the near term. Silver may continue to be range within 18-19 while Copper has risen sharply breaking above the 3.2-3.4 range and looks bullish.

Most currencies have risen from levels seen yesterday. Euro trades above 1.02 and can target 1.03/04 while Aussie and Pound have risen and can test 0.70/71 and 1.22 respectively. EURJPY has risen too and can test 140/142 while the Dollar Index needs to sustain above 106 to rise back again in the near term else can be vulnerable to a sharp decline. USDJPY is bullish above 136 else can open up doors for a fall to 135/134. USDCNY can remain within 6.72/74-6.78 region. Watch support at 79.60/70 on USDINR today.

The US Treasury yields remain lower but stable. A dip to test their crucial supports is possible before a fresh rise is seen. The outcome of the Fed meeting tomorrow will be crucial. The German yields remained stable above their key supports. It will have to be seen if they can hold above it or not. It is a wait and watch situation. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have key supports which are holding well now. But a failure to see a strong bounce from here will increase the danger of breaking those support.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

27 Jul 22. 0926 IST or 0356 GMT or 2356 EST

Good Morning!

Dow needs to hold above 31500 to retain our bullish view of seeing a further rise on the upside while Dax has fallen and can test support at 13000-12900. Nikkei has declined and could test 27500-27000 in the near term. Shanghai is trading closely within a narrow range of 3240-3280. Nifty is likely to fall on the downside while below 16500.

Brent and WTI have fallen back after testing their immediate resistances at 107.5 and 100 respectively. While below these resistance outlook is bearish to see a dip in the near term. Gold has fallen towards the support at 1710 on a surge in the US Dollar index. Silver continues to remain ranged. Copper has come down to test its immediate support after rising sharply towards 3.5 yesterday.

Dollar Index continues trade within 106-109 while Euro has dipped below 1.02 and is headed towards 1.01-1.00. Aussie can remain in 0.6880-0.70 for next 1-2 sessions while Pound is ranged within 1.21-1.1960. EURJPY remains above 138 and has scope to rise towards 140-142 on the upside. USDCNY can test 6.77/78 before falling off towards 6.74 in the medium term. USDRUB can trade within 61-56 region while 61 is an immediate and important resistance. USDINR can trade within 79.60-80.05 unless a break on either side is seen.

The US Treasury yields have inched up across tenors. The outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting will determine whether the yields will rise from here or will fall to test the crucial supports before reversing higher. The German yields have tumbled again and are looking bearish to fall further from here. The 10Yr GoI looks weak to break its support and fall further while the 5Yr GoI looks mixed within its narrow range.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

28 Jul 22. 0848 IST or 0318 GMT or 2318 EST

Good Morning!

Dow has risen sharply after the FED hiked rates by 75bps. A further rise to 32800-33000 cannot be negated while the upmove sustains. Dax has moved up slightly and while above important support at 12900, view is bullish. Nikkei is bullish above 27500 and has scope to test 28000 while Shanghai too has risen and is bullish while above 3300. Nifty has risen yesterday and can move up towards 16800.

Commodities have risen sharply but have resistance ahead which could halt the current rally and pull back the prices again. Brent has broken above 107.5 while WTI has risen sharply and could test immediate resistance in the near term. Gold has risen above 1740 but needs to rise above 1760 to become further bullish in the near term. Silver is trading below the key resistance at 19.5. Copper has risen sharply towards 3.5 and has scope to rise further on the upside.

FED hiked rates by 75bps in line with market expectations. Dollar Index remains within 106-109 range while Euro can trade within 1.00/01-1.03/04 region for a while. Aussie needs to break above 0.70 to rise further towards 0.71 while Pound has crucial resistance near 1.22 which if holds can produce a decline. A break above 1.22 will be bullish towards 1.24/25. EURJPY needs to sustain above 138 to avoid a fall to 136 while USDJPY can bounce from anywhere between 134-135 region to head back towards 138. USDCNY can test 6.72 while below 6.77. USDRUB could not break above immediate resistance at 61 and while below 61 can trade within 56-61 region. USDINR can trade within 79.60/80-80.05 unless a break on either side is seen.

The US Treasury yields have dipped across tenors barring the 30Yr which remained stable. The Fed increased the rates by 75 basis points and has left the doors open for further rate hikes based on the data. While the Fed has not acknowledged that the US is in a recession, it is important to see how the market reacts to the preliminary GDP data release that is due today. The German yields have risen at the near-end and remained stable at the far-end. The broader picture is still weak, and the yields can fall further from here. The 10Yr GoI has declined breaking below the support as expected and is bearish to fall further. The 5Yr GoI looks mixed and stuck in a narrow range.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

29 Jul 22. 0857 IST or 0327 GMT or 2327 EST

Good Morning!

Some volatility is seen in currencies but there are important supports and resistances near current levels that need to hold else a reversal could be in place. Euro and Dollar Index continue to range within 1.01-1.03 and 106-109 while EURJPY has fallen sharply and can see a bounce from 136-135 region. Aussie is slowly rising towards 0.70/71 while Pound needs to break above crucial resistance at 1.22 to be able to move up further. Dollar Yen has fallen sharply and can bounce from 134. However an eventual fall to 132 cannot be negated. USDCNY is stuck within 6.72-6.77 while USDRUB has broken above 61 finally and can rise towards 65-70 now. USDINR can test crucial support at 79.60
which if holds can take it back to 80 else a break and close below 79.60 could be indicative of fresh bearishness. Watch price action near 79.60.

The US Treasury yields have declined sharply across tenors after the US GDP data release yesterday. The advance estimates showed that the US GDP fell 0.9%, thereby technically running into a recession. The 10Yr has a crucial support coming up which we expect to hold and produce a bounce. The German yields continue to fall and are keeping our bearish view intact. The 10Yr GoI remain weak and can fall further. The 5Yr GoI looks vulnerable to break its range on the downside and fall.

Dow is rising and headed towards 32800-33000 while Dax can rise to 13600/800 on a break above 13400. Nikkei can face a short corrective dip from 28000 before rising higher towards 28500. Shanghai can trade within 3250-3350 for the time being. Nifty can be bullish while above 16800. A rise to 17000-17200 can be possible before heading further up to 17500/800.

Brent and WTI have come off from the resistance at 110-111 and 100 respectively. While below these resistance view is bearish to see further fall on the downside. Gold has risen sharply above 1760 to target the next key resistance at 1780. Silver has risen sharply above the key resistance at 19.5 and has little room left on the upside. Copper needs a strong break above 3.5 to become further bullish in the coming sessions.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

01 Aug 22. 0851 IST or 0321 GMT or 2321 EST

Good Morning!

Sharp volatility seen in the currencies on Friday from where the prices have recovered a bit today. But overall with weak US Dollar, other currencies trade stronger and has some scope for continuing its rise against the Dollar in the near term. While Dollar Index has fallen and can test 105-104.60, Euro, Aussie, Pound can have scope to test 1.03/04, 0.71 and 1.23/24 while USDCNY remains within 6.72/77 and Dollar Rupee can test 79.00 before a sharp bounce back towards 79.30/40 is seen. USDJPY has been falling along with the Dollar Index and looks bearish towards 130 that can lead to some bearishness in EURJPY as well towards 135/134. USDRUB can rise to 65-70 while above 61.

The US Treasury yields continue to trade lower and remain weak to dip further and test their key supports. We expect the supports to hold and produce a bounce. The German yields remain weak and keep intact our bearish view. They can fall further from here. The Indian 10Yr GoI has tested its key support and bounced. Need to see if this bounce sustains or not. But the 5Yr GoI still has room on the downside to fall before a strong reversal is seen.

Dow made a high of 32910 on Friday before coming off slightly from there. Bullish bias remains intact for a possible break above 33000 while Dax has risen above 13400 and can rise further towards 14000-14200. Nikkei has scope to rise towards 28500 while Nifty too has been decently bullish last week which if continues can take it higher towards 17500-17700 in the coming 1-2 weeks. Shanghai is stuck within 3300-3200 and needs a decisive break on either side to give more clarity on medium term direction.

Brent and WTI have declined after testing a high of 106.50 and 101.90 respectively. While the fall sustains, a further dip to downside looks possible. Gold needs a strong break above 1780 to rise further in the near term. Silver and Copper have declined from 20.5 and 3.6 respectively. Only a rise past above the mentioned levels would lead to continuing its bullish momentum in the coming sessions.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

0858 IST or 0328 GMT or 2328 EST

Good Morning!

Bears continue to hold strong in most currency pairs but could see a correction if Dollar Index bounces from immediate support at 105 as that could limit Dollar Yen fall to 130 and rise in Euro and Aussie 1.03 and 0.71 respectively. EURJPY if breaks below 134 can be bearish towards 132 while Pound has managed to break above 1.22 which if sustains can take it higher towards 1.24/25 in the near term. USDCNY can rise to 6.80 on a break above 6.78 while USDRUB can be headed towards 65-70 on the upside. USDINR needs to hold above support at 79 to bounce back to 79.40/50 else can see a test of 78.90/80/70 before an eventual bounce is seen in the medium term.

The US Treasury yields have declined sharply across tenors. The 10Yr has broken below a key support and will now have more room to fall from here. The German yields continue to move down and are keeping our bearish view intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have declined sharply and can fall further to test their key supports and then can reverse higher again.

Equities have fallen after some sessions of strong rally. Dow has come off from 32972 and can test 32500/400 which is a decent support while Dax has dipped too and can fall towards 13400 above which view is bullish. Nikkei has scope to test 27000-26750 on a break below 27500 else a bounce back from 27500 if seen will be bullish. Shanghai can bounce from 3150 while Nifty has been rising strong and is headed towards 17500-17800 in the medium term. Any correction if seen from current levels can take it down to 17000/16900 initially.

Brent and WTI have fallen further as expected and look bearish to test their key support in the near term. Gold has entered into the key resistance zone of 1800, a break above which is needed to continue the bullish momentum in the coming sessions. Silver and Copper struggles to move up above the resistance at 20.5 and 3.6 respectively.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

0851 IST or 0321 GMT or 2321 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index has risen well and can test 106/107 while above 105. Euro has fallen and could trade within 1.01-1.03 for a while EURJPY has risen sharply and can test 137/138. Aussie and Pound have dipped and are likely to remain within 0.68-0.71 and 1.18/20-1.22 respectively. USDJPY rose well from 130.29 and a break above 134 is needed for the pair to rise further towards 135/136 again in the coming sessions. USDCNY can trade within 6.78-6.72 while USDRUB has fallen below 60 again and can test 57/56 before a bounce back towards 60/61 can be seen. USDINR rose well while above support at 78.40/50. A rise to 78.80/90-79 can be possible before a further decline towards crucial support at 78 is seen in the medium term.

The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply across tenors. Risk aversion on the back of the US House Speake Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan that has brought back the concerns of the US-China relation tension. The yields will have to get a strong follow-through rise from here to indicate a reversal. We have to wait and watch. The German yields have bounced but may not sustain. The broader view remains bearish and there is more room to fall from here. The 10Yr GoI has declined below a key support and looks vulnerable to fall further from here. The 5Yr GoI can also move down further from here before a reversal is seen.

Dow has fallen and can test support near 33000 before bouncing back again in the medium term. Dax on the other hand has also dipped but needs to hold above 13400 to rise back again. Nikkei and Shanghai have risen slightly after a brief decline yesterday. The bounce if sustains can take it higher to 27800-28000 or higher and 3250 respectively in the near term. Nifty rose back by the end of the session yesterday and could keep bullish hopes intact while above 17000/17200.

Brent and WTI have recovered a bit from yesterday's low. While the rise sustains, the prices could test the immediate resistance at 103.5-105 (Brent) and 100 (WTI) respectively. Gold seems to be capped at 1800 for now. Silver and Copper have fallen back from the resistance at 20.5 and 3.6-3.55 respectively.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

0900 IST or 0330 GMT or 2330 EST

Good Morning!

Most currency pairs look stable within a specific range and needs a break on either side if the range to give more directional clarity. Dollar Index trades higher leading to dip in Euro but can remain above 1.01 for now. Immediate range for the Dollar Index and Euro are seen at 105-108 and 1.01-1.03 respectively. USDJPY can be bullish to 134 while above 133 else can come down to test 132. EURJPY has risen slightly and is bullish to 137 while above 135. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.6880-0.71 and 1.20-1.23 respectively while UDRUB can remain within 57-64 unless a break on either side is seen. USDCNY is stuck within a narrow range of 6.78-6.72 while USDINR needs to break above 79.20 to rise to 79.40/50 else can fall off to 79.0-78.90 on the downside.

The US Treasury yields have risen sharply at the near-end while those at the far-end remained stable. The 10Yr and 30Yr will need a strong follow-through rise from here and break the upcoming resistance in order to become bullish. The German yields have bounced but it is likely to be short-lived. The broader view remains bearish, and the yields can reverse lower again. The 10Yr and 5Yr have risen back well but need to get a follow-through rise and break above the immediate resistances to negate any further fall.

Equities look mixed. While Nifty needs to sustain above 17200 and break above 17400 to turn further bullish, Nikkei needs to break above 28000 to rise to 28500 while Shanghai has been falling over the past few sessions and looks bearish for a fall to 3150-3100 before a bounce is seen soon. Dow on the other hand has risen sharply and can rise towards 33000-34000 soon while Dax has held above support at 13400 and can now be bullish towards 14000-14200.

Crude prices have dipped after the EIA shows a rise in US crude and Gasoline inventories and OPEC+ said to raise the oil output by 100,000 barrels per day in September. Brent and WTI have fallen sharply to their key supports at 95-93.5 and 90 respectively. A break lower could be further bearish on the downside. Gold could be in a range while below 1800. Silver and Copper can fall further on the downside while below the resistance at 20.5 and 3.52 respectively.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

0859 IST or 0329 GMT or 2329 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index has dipped a bit but can remain above 105 which can keep upside intact at 1.03 for Euro and lad to a fall back towards 1.01. EURJPY can test 137/138 before falling back to 135/134. Aussie and Pound are likely to remain ranged within 0.6880-0.7050 and 1.23-1.20 while USDCNY can trade within 6.76-6.7350. USDRUB has scope to trade in the 56-64 region for sometime. Dollar Yen is likely to remain below 135 for now with downside limited to 130.

The US Treasury yields have come-off sharply across tenors . The crucial support can be revisited now. It will have to be seen if the yields will manage to bounce back again or not. It is a wait and watch situation. The US nonfarm payroll and the unemployment data release today will be key to watch. The German yields have come down again failing to sustain the bounce. The bearish view is intact, and the yields can continue to fall in the coming days. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have come down sharply and have room to move down further and test their key supports from where we expect them to bounce. The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy outcome is due today.

Dow can rise towards 34000 while above 32300 while Dax has held below resistance at 13800 and needs to break on the upside to head higher towards 14000-14200. Nikkei can rise towards 28500 while above 28000. Shanghai is bearish below 3250 towards 3150-3100. Nifty has risen sharply and is bullish while above 17200 to see a rise towards 17700/800 eventually.

Brent and WTI have fallen below 95 and 90 respectively and could test the crucial support at 90-87 (Brent) and 85 (WTI) before reversing back from there. Gold has broken above the key resistance at 1800 and could be bullish on a sustained move above it. Silver and Copper have rebounded from yesterday's low and could be headed towards 20.5 and 3.6 respectively.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

08 Aug 22. 0852 IST or 0322 GMT or 2322 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index has risen and can test 108 indicating a decline in Euro in the near term. Pound has scope to fall to 1.19/18 and is bearish while below 1.23. Aussie can fall to 0.6850-0.68 before a bounce is seen. EURJPY has scope to rise to 139/140 while Dollar Yen can rise to 138 on the upside in line with the bullishness seen on the Dollar Index. USDCNY is holding above immediate support at 6.74 and can rise to 6.78 while USDRUB can remain in an immediate range of 62.85-57. USDINR can range within 78.80-79.80 for now unless a break on either side is seen.

The US Treasury yields have surged after the strong jobs data release on Friday. The US Nonfarm Payroll increased by 508K as against the market expectation on 250K and our forecast of 308K. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.5%. It will have to be seen if the yields gets a strong follow-through rise from here and breach their resistances. That will be very bullish. We will have to wait and watch. The German yields have risen sharply across tenors. But resistances are ahead that can cap the upside and trigger a reversal to keep the overall downtrend intact. The 10Yr GoI had surged after the RBI’s 50-basis point rate hike on Friday. The view is bullish to see a further rise from here. The 5Yr GoI on the other hand looks mixed and need to break above its immediate resistance to become bullish.

Dow is ranged within 32400-33000 and needs a break on either side to give more directional clarity while Dax has support at 13500/400 which if holds can produce a bounce. Nikkei can test crucial resistance at 28500 while Shanghai too has resistance at 3250 which if holds can be bearish too. Nifty looks bullish while above 17400.

Brent has bounced back from 92.5 and has the scope to rise towards 97.5 , while WTI has risen back above the support at 87-85 and could rise further on the upside. Gold has fallen below 1800 and could remain in a range for some time. Silver has fallen back after failing to rise above 20.5 and while that holds, a further downside seems possible. Copper has moved up but needs to break above the key resistance at 3.6 to become further bullish on the upside.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing

10 Aug 22. 0847 IST or 0317 GMT or 2317 EST

Good Morning!

Mixed view on most currencies. Dollar index can remain within 105-108 range while Euro too can trade within 1.01-1.03 for the near term. EURJPY can rise to 139-140 while Dollar Yen too can rise to 137. Aussie and Pound looks ranged too within 0.7050-0.6850 and 1.23-1.20/18. USDCNY is bullish while above support at 6.74. USDRUB is narrowing its range and can trade within 62.50-58.00 for the next few sessions. USDINR has important resistance at 79.75/80 which can hold and produce a fall in the near term towards 79.40/20.

The US Treasury yields have dipped at the far-end. As mentioned earlier, the yields will have to rise past their key resistances that are ahead to confirm a trend reversal and rise further. The price action in the coming days will need a close watch to get a cue on that. The US CPI data release today will be important. The German yields have room to rise more within its current corrective rally. Thereafter a fresh fall is possible. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI must break their immediate resistances to move up further. Else they can fall back again.

Dow has dipped within 32400-33000 range but we retain bullish bias towards 33000-34000 in the near to medium term. Dax has declined sharply and unless a rise back above 13800 is seen, view can be bearish. Nikkei is bearish while below 28500/250 while Shanghai is attempting to break above 3250 and can head towards 3300 on the upside. Nifty is trading above 17500 and while the rise sustains, it can move up further towards 17700/800.

Brent needs a strong break above 97.5 to rise further on the upside while WTI has risen but has immediate resistance at 95. Gold needs to break above the upper end of the 1780-1820 range to move up further in the near term. Silver and Copper needs a sustained break above 20.5 and 3.6 to become further bullish in the coming sessions.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

11 Aug 22. 0851 IST or 0321 GMT or 2321 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index fell sharply below 105 yesterday before bouncing back higher while Euro tested 1.0368 before falling back. Euro can remain within 1.04-1.02 for now while the Dollar Index can trade above 105. Aussie too rose almost to test 0.72 before coming off sharply from there. Pound is bearish while below 1.23. Dollar Yen fell sharply and can be ranged within 137-132 over the next few sessions. USDCNY broke below 6.74 and now while above 6.72, can be bullish towards 6.77/78 again. USDRUB needs to break above 62 to be bullish towards 65 else can fall back to 60-58. USDINR too can fall while below 79.65/60.

The US Treasury yields have dipped at the near-end while those at the far-end sustains higher but look mixed. The price action in the next few days will need a watch to get clarity. The US inflation seems to be cooling down. The US Headline inflation increased 8.48% (YoY) in July, slower that the 9% rise seen in the previous month. This might keep the yields lower in the near-term. The German yields have dipped across tenors. The outlook remains bearish. Upside is limited from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are signalling a turn around and can fall in the coming days.

Dow has risen back sharply and is bullish towards 33800-34000 while Dax needs to break above 13800 to head higher. Nikkei can fall to 27500-27200 before bouncing back to higher levels while Shanghai needs to sustain above 3250 to move up else can fall back to 3150 soon. Nifty is bullish while above 17500.

Brent and WTI have moved up further but need a strong break above 97.5 and 92.5 to rise further on the upside. Gold and Silver have declined after witnessing a rise yesterday. But while above the near term supports, there is scope for a rise back to higher levels again. Copper has risen firmly above 3.6 and look bullish for the near term.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

12 Aug 22. 0903 IST or 0333 GMT or 2333 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index has fallen back towards 105 and a break lower will be bearish towards 104-102. Euro is headed towards 1.04/05 from where a fall looks likely. Immediate downside could be limited to 1.02. EURJPY has scope to rise to 139/140 while Dollar Yen can rise to 135/136 while above 132. Pound is bearish while below 1.23 while Aussie has surprised with a gap up opening and can test resistance near 0.72. USDCNY and USDRUB are likely to be ranged within 6.72-6.77/78 and 62-58.50 respectively. USDINR rose sharply yesterday to close above 79.6 which needs to sustain to rise further to 79.80/80.00 else an immediate fall will take the pair back to 79.40/20. Watch price action today.

The US Treasury yields have risen well at the far-end but need to see if it can sustain. A strong rise past the immediate resistances is necessarily needed to indicate the end of the corrective fall and resume the broader uptrend. It is still a wait and watch situation for the Treasury yields. The German yields are heading up towards their key resistances from where the overall downtrend can resume. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are confirming a turn-around and can fall further in the coming days.

Dow holds above 33000 and looks bullish for a rise to 33800-34000 while Dax has dipped slightly and needs a strong rise above 13800 to turn strongly bullish. Nikkei has surged well today moving above 28000 contrary to our expectation and if it breaks above 28500, it could be bullish towards 29000-29500 on the upside soon. Shanghai on the other hand is bullish towards 3300. Nifty has crucial resistance at 17700/800 which if holds can keep the index lower for sometime.

Brent has moved up further and could test immediate resistance at 101 in the near term. WTI tested the resistance at 95 yesterday and has declined a bit. Gold is trading just above the immediate support at 1800. The support needs to hold and produce a bounce back, or else the view can be bearish in the coming sessions. Silver has declined further and could be bearish to 20/19.5. Copper needs a strong rise past 3.7 to move up further in the near term.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

17 Aug 22. 0848 IST or 0318 GMT or 2318 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index and Euro continue to trade within the 105-107/108 and 1.01-1.04 range for now and is likely to hold within the mentioned range for some more time while EURJPY is bearish below 137 with scope of falling towards 135/134. Pound is bullish above 1.20 within the 1.23-1.20 range while Aussie can test 0.6850 on a break below 0.70. Dollar Yen and USDRUB are bullish while above supports at 132 and 60/58.50 respectively. USDCNY rose sharply to test crucial resistance at 6.80 which may hold well for the near term leading to a fall to 6.78/74 with an overall broad range of 6.80-6.74 to hold for now. USDINR may open with a gap down today and can fall to 79.20-79.00 while resistance at 79.70 is likely to hold well.

The US Treasury yields have risen sharply at the near-end while those at the far-end remain stable. The immediate outlook is mixed. A further fall from here can see a deeper fall in the near-term. We will have to wait and watch. The German yields have risen across tenors and are coming closer to their crucial resistance. We expect the yields to reverse lower from there and keep the broader downtrend intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI looks weak to fall in the near-term.

Dow has broken above crucial resistance at 34000 and is bullish towards 34500-34600. Dax and Nikkei too are bullish towards 14000/200 and 29500-30000. Shanghai could be ranged within 3250-3350 while Nifty has managed to close above 17800 yesterday and if the rise sustains, a further upmove from here towards 18000 or higher is possible.

Brent has declined and is likely to test crucial support at 90-87 in the near term while WTI has also broken below the key support at 87 and could target its next key support (85) on the downside. Watch US Weekly crude inventory data release due today. Gold is trading above the key support at 1780 which needs to hold to keep the 1780-1820 range intact and to prevent a fall to 1770-1750. Silver and Copper are trading above 20 and 3.6 respectively. A break lower could drag the prices further down in the coming sessions.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

18 Aug 22. 0841 IST or 0311 GMT or 2311 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index and Euro trade within the narrow range of 106-108 and 1.01-1.02 and broader range of 105-108 and 1.01-1.03 respectively. EURJPY can test 139-140 before coming off from there while Pound and Aussie have dipped and can test 1.20/18 and 0.68/67 before bouncing back again to higher levels. Dollar Yen can trade within 132-136 for the medium term. USDCNY is ranged within 6.80-6.74/72and USDRUB can test 58.50 while below 60. USDINR can rise to 79.70 followed by a fall back to 79.40/20-79.00.

The US Treasury yields have risen across tenors. A break above immediate resistances will give some relief and can take the yields further higher. We will have to wait and watch. The German yields have come into their crucial resistance zone. We expect the yields to see a fresh fall from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have declined sharply. The outlook is negative, and a further fall is possible from here.

Dow has fallen back below 34000 which if sustains and breaks below 33700 will be negative towards 33200. Dax has come off sharply from resistance near 14000/200 and can now fall towards 13400/200. Nikkei has dipped within the overall upmove towards 30000-31000 while Shanghai is stuck within 3250-3350. Nifty needs to break above 18000 to continue moving up else a dip from 18000 can drag it down to 17600/500 before attempting to rise again in the medium term.

Crude prices have recovered a bit after the EIA report showed that US crude inventories have fallen by 7.056 mln last week. Gold has fallen below the key support at 1780 and has scope to fall further in the near term. Silver and Copper have declined below 20 and 3.6 respectively and look bearish for a further decline in the coming sessions.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

19 Aug 22. 0843 IST or 0313 GMT or 2313 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index surged as the FED officials commented on the need for further rate hikes and on hawkish FED minutes released on Wednesday. The index is headed towards immediate resistance at 108 which if breaks higher will be bullish for the coming 1-2 weeks. Euro has fallen below 1.01 and can test 1.00-0.995 on the downside before bouncing higher. EURJPY is holding below 138 just now but a rise to 139/140 cannot be negated. Aussie and Pound have fallen to head towards 0.68 and 1.18 respectively in line with the rise in Dollar Index and USDJPY has risen sharply and could head towards 138/139. USDRUB has fallen and could test 57/56 while USDINR if breaks above 79.70 will be bullish to 80-80.20 on the upside.

The US Treasury yields have risen well at the far-end. A further rise from here will ease the downside pressure and pave way for more rise going forward. The German yields are at their crucial resistances, and we expect them to reverse lower from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have risen back well but need to breach their immediate resistances to move further up and avoid a fall-back.

Dow hovers around 34000 and needs to rise further to turn bullish. View is unclear just now as there are equal chances of moving either side from here. Dax has bounced a bit but remains weak towards 13200. Nikkei can dip slightly towards 28000 but medium term target of 30000-31000 remains intact. Shanghai needs to break above 3300 to turn bullish till then could be stuck within 3200-3300. Nifty needs to break above 18000. Till then can trade within 18000-17850.

Brent and WTI rose to test their immediate resistance at 97.5 and 92.5 yesterday and have come off from there. A strong break above these resistance will lead to see an extended rise in the near term. Gold and Silver have declined further and look bearish for a fall towards 1750 and 19-18.5 respectively. Copper has bounced back but needs to sustain the bounce to extend higher on the upside.

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23 Aug 22. 0857 IST or 0327 GMT or 2327 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar continues its upward streak dragging Euro down to below parity levels again as markets expect FED to remain hawkish and the interest rate hikes in Europe and US to fight inflation could weaken the global economy as a whole. Sharp movement is seen in the currency markets ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium on 25-27th August. Dollar Index needs to fall back from 109.30/40 to avoid further rise while Euro can have chances to fall to 0.98/97 on a break below 0.99. Aussie can rise to 0.6950-0.70 while Pound and EURJPY are bearish for a fall to 1.17/16 and 135/134 respectively. Dollar Yen is following Dollar Index and would decline if it holds below 138 just now else can test 140 before falling from there. USDCNY is strongly bullish and can rise towards 6.90/95 in the medium term. USDRUB can trade within 58-60.50 for sometime while USDINR is bullish to test 80-80.20 while above 79.80. EURINR has to remain above 79 to maintain bullishness and rise back in the near term else will be vulnerable to a sharp decline towards 78/77. Watch price action near 79-79.40

The US Treasury yields have risen further and are keeping intact our near-term bullish view of seeing a further rise. The German yields retain their momentum and are likely to move up further. The 10Yr GoI can dip within its range while the 5Yr has room to move up in the near-term.

Most equity indices look weak and bearish. Dow has fallen towards the support at 33000 and has scope to test 32500 before a reversal is seen again. Dax continues to fall and could be highly bearish on a break below 13000. Nikkei has fallen back after witnessing a rise yesterday. The index looks vulnerable to a break below the immediate support at 28395 and fall further in the coming sessions. Shanghai may continue to be ranged over a medium term. Nifty has scope to fall further in the near term.

Brent and WTI to remain in a range of 90-100 and 85-92.5 for a while. Gold has bounced back from a low of 1740.20 but needs to sustain the bounce to avoid the danger of falling further in the coming sessions. Silver has bounced back from the support at 18.50. Copper to trade in a range bound while below 3.7.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

24 Aug 22. 0908 IST or 0338 GMT or 2338 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index has fallen below 109 but needs to sustain to pull up Euro above parity. For now 0.99 holds as decent support for Euro. EURJPY seems ranged within 138-134 while Aussie and Pound may trade within 0.70-0.68 and 1.17-1.19 region for sometime. USDJPY is bearish while below 138 while USDCNY looks bullish above 6.85. USDRUB is likely to trade within 60.50-58 while USDINR may trade above 79.60/70 to slowly move upwards. EURINR has scope to rise back to 80.00-80.50 while above the support at 79.00.

The US Treasury yields sustain higher and are retaining our near-term bullish view. The yields can rise have risen further in the coming days. The German yields have dipped at the near-end while those at the far-end sustain higher. The view is bullish and there is room for the yields to move further up from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI looks mixed and can be range bound.

Most equity indices continues to look bearish. Dow is likely to test 32500 before a bounce back is seen from there. Dax has room to fall further if a break below 13000 is seen. Nikkei has scope to fall towards 27800 from the current level. Shanghai is likely to test the lower end of 3200-3300 range. Nifty may remain vulnerable to a declined while it sustains below 17600-17750.

Brent needs to break above the resistance at 100 to rise further in the coming sessions. WTI has scope to rise to 95 while above 92.5. Gold has immediate resistance at 1775-1780. While below which view may remain bearish to see a fall on the downside. Silver has room to rise on the upside while above the support at 18.50. Copper needs a strong break above 3.7 to move up further on the upside.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.