The Swamp

Russia Trolling the West - Winter is coming: Time to move to Russia...

I closed longs 0226 before reaching my target. Don't like to have open trades during weekend.
Month end choppiness trading done for me.
I will keep trading my scalp system next week.
Have a good weekend all.

EU longs look to be more positive. The week closed with some negative structure. Day wise has a bullish structure. Bulls simply need to make HH starting with 0255.. Bears a LL starting with 0146. 12h bearish

USDX both week and day are bearish.. 12h bullish.

Nothing conclusive is EU structure. More range until a b/o. COT looks to favor longs.

price usually stays out, or dont go deep in the red zone. Last month after FOMC it did get into the red. Understandable closer to that 19 year low at 1.03xx. That has since broken. Price may come back to it. But its in that red zone. Sometimes it dont. Anyway price using the same movement after June FOMC could bring it to 1.0318 area. It has gone up a few times past that area since January. You can add 75 pips or 150 pips respectably. As A "oh shit" possibility. Those are dynamic. Meaning if the 200 4h ema goes north. Those will rise some too. The past pa gives the drop a better shot. At least until those rate raises peter out. It rose last time after FOMC. 0318 is a like level in the red. The drop after was 650 pips. The box in this current pa is larger. That could make a larger drop. Anyway nobody can say for sure the outcome. The structure is similar to others on the fall. Sometimes it drops before the red. Other times it gets into it. Often after a final push higher. That push sometimes is a new high in the box structure, sometimes it cant do it. To do it it has to take out 0257 and 0278. If it can not, expect a drop. I dont know how many attempts will be made.

If Monday pa cant make it above 0255, and has a low below 0146. It then has a chance to challenge. 0113 0096 and 0078.

Price is in limbo consolidation (probably just short term a few weeks or months). It has a month trend down. Its reached/broke a multi decades low. Rates are rising. Some say inflation will hurt the usd ( I counter it may hurt the U.S. economy, but it hurts others economy worldwide. In turn those other currencies suffer. A wash that hurts others even more). But its inflation worldwide. The rise in the usd makes inflation on others even greater. If you buy stuff in usd. All the manufactures world wide buy raw materials mostly based on usd. Any transaction has a built in profit tax. Meaning people trading in currency have a spread. Anytime a raw material is bought. It has a small added cost. Each time a finished product is made and exported. That same added cost exist. The most traded commodity with a added cost, is energy. With its in the currency exchange or the shipping. Countries w/o energy pay more than people with it. Those ships, rails, trucks rates are added. Those cost in a pipeline are real The added cost each middleman adds to it. Enough with my Eur/USD to 0.82 or lower rant. In the near term selling 025/05xx looks promising. I hoped to sell closer to 1.0835. It looks like that may sour in that 02x/05x range. Atm 0318/0415 is looking far. I will just have to take some small ones on a rise. If it stays out the red, we may see 1.0050 next week. Even in the red we may see it fall to 0050/29 and deeper

Its reached/broke a multi decades low after J. Powell said : "The USD is strong. Markets are reacting normally."...

I could of targeted 0283 off the retrace to 0196 or 0275. I will be safer scalping a retrace. Both targets make a HH or a LL. I'm just going to wait for the b/o retrace, I will trade either direction. Mostly that lines up with my day bias.

When I look at EURUSD for a b/o who makes a HH or a LL, I look at the same time at USDCHF...now, USDCHF is at only 14 pips away to b/o a 3 month support level 0.94945, while EURUSD is at 52 pips away to make a HH for only a 25 days resistance level 1.02773...they can synchronize next week for a HH on EURUSD and a LL for USDCHF...I expect the b/o to be at least 2-300 pips with small or no any retracement...

No matter what. She needs to get to 0257+ to go North. If she drops below 0146 now/before 0254, she may hit 0079/9x. pool.

Light R 02180.3

wrong time of the day.. possible short 1.0213.9/14.5... Tight stop..

I hope it drops to -1.0202 before bounce

nope.. i may get stopped by 2 pips.. or even 0.01 if the spread widens above 1.02145.

still the wrong time of the day.. i have another 0224/25.3

"uncle" on Asia secession if this one dont get a foothold.

price is under 0225.. 7x+ risk at 15 pips. Taking 1/3 off.. bird in hand.. That pays for the earlies s/l

pending L 0225.3..sl 0220.8

0243/49 has a little support

That pa above 0257 neutralized my bearish week. The day was already bullish. the 12h is bullish. A touch of 0278 plus 10/20 ish may bring it back to 0252 again.. A possible buy there or 0249/40..

there is also a large liquidity pool above 0278.. I think at 0283 and higher. I dont know if it will push it down. But it has a potential to do it with a long red candle. It will probably be looking for short stops. It has a chance to break 0240/49.. just something to be aware of. 0240/52 is fresh

Took a short 0258
will add