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XAUUSD - Investors are actively reducing short positions

The current growth was the reaction of traders to the slowdown in the USD dynamics, which has been putting pressure on the quotes of the precious metal for two months now. The proximity of the US Federal Reserve meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, July 27, provoked an outflow of investor capital into conservative gold, which traditionally acts as a safe-haven asset in situations of uncertainty. Of course, if the interest rate is increased by 75 or even 100 basis points, a short-term decline in the trading instrument is inevitable, but after that, the global correction may resume. On the weekly chart, the formation of a long-term downward channel continues, with dynamic boundaries of 1800.0–1650.0. The price is trying to start a new wave of growth. Technical indicators are holding a sell signal, which is slightly weakening: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator have begun to approach the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming new rising bars in the sell zone.

Support levels: 1695, 1650 | Resistance levels: 1741, 1786

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Nasdaq 100 - US stock market corrects

The corporate segment of the stock market continues to publish financial statements for the second quarter. So, shares of Snap Inc., owner of the Snapchat messenger, became the leader of the fall yesterday, after the net loss per share increased to –0.26 dollars from –0.22 dollars in the previous period. Quarterly revenue also fell short of analysts' expectations, amounting to 1.1B dollars against the forecast of 1.14B dollars. Meanwhile, financial services firm American Express Co. released positive data with revenue of 13.4B dollars, well above its preliminary estimate of 12.5B dollars, while earnings per share of 2.57 dollars improved its forecast from 2.42 dollars. The index quotes continue to form a global downward channel, rising towards the resistance line. Technical indicators are in a buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are holding above the signal line and expanding the range of fluctuations. At the same time, the AO oscillator histogram steadily rises in the buying zone.

Support levels: 11816, 11087 | Resistance levels: 12688, 13531

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USDCAD: the pair is down 2.3% from July highs

On July 13, the regulator raised the interest rate by 100 basis points to 2.5%. However, the markets expected conflicting inflation figures. According to macroeconomic statistics, CPI was recorded at 6.2% YoY, higher than the analysts' forecast of 5.9% and the previous value of 6.1%, but standard inflation slowed down in June. The indicator was lower than the forecast of 0.9% MoM and the May value of 1.4%, probably due to the seasonal factor and the adaptation of enterprises to the new conditions of monetary policy. The long-term trend in the USDCAD pair remains upward. The key support for the trend is at 1.2835, and market participants tested it last Friday, which resulted in quotes rising to the 1.2938 area. Accordingly, for the upward dynamics to continue, buyers need to break through it. Otherwise, the USDCAD pair is expected to decline and renew the July low of 1.2835. The mid-term trend changed to a downtrend last week. Traders broke through the key trend support 1.2996–1.2974. The sell target zone is 1.2777–1.2756. The key trend resistance is shifting to 1.3064–1.3042. If the participants overcome it within the correction, it will be possible to consider short positions with the first target at the last week's low.

Resistance levels: 1.2938, 1.3065, 1.3157 | Support levels: 1.2835, 1.2525

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USDJPY - Growth is possible

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) develops, within which the wave 3 of (1) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 is developing, within which the wave (v) of iii is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the USDJPY pair will grow to the levels of 142 – 145. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 131.35.

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Silver - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level formed as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the fifth wave v of C is developing, within which, the wave (v) of v has formed.

If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will fall to the levels of 17.2 – 15.77. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 19.12.

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EURUSD - The development of the energy crisis increases pressure on the euro

The European economy continues to slide smoothly into recession, and one of the key factors in the current downturn is the rapid development of the energy crisis. So, yesterday, the Russian company Gazprom, which supplies gas to the EU countries, announced that one of the turbines of the gas pipeline would be stopped for repair, and the total volume of pumping from July 27 will decrease to 33M cubic meters per day. Thus the low level of supplies will be corrected by almost half. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, called on the leadership of the EU states to prepare for a complete halt in supplies from Russia against the background of the sanctions policy. To avoid critical consequences, the official announced the need to save resources even in those territories where dependence on Russian resources is insignificant. Earlier, a document was presented: it obliged all states of the region to submit projects for a voluntary reduction in gas consumption by 15% by the end of March next year by the end of September this year, which was criticized. Yesterday, there were reports of numerous adjustments being made to adapt to a particular country's needs. Today, the project was agreed upon at a special meeting of EU energy ministers in Brussels. Despite serious pressure, the EUR/USD pair is within the global downward channel, approaching the resistance line. Technical indicators continue to hold a sell signal, which is gradually weakening: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram continues to form upward bars.

Support levels: 1.0130, 0.9952 | Resistance levels: 1.0278, 1.0494

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NZDUSD - New Zealand households face rising cost of living

Yesterday, Statistics New Zealand (Stats NZ) published data on the cost of living index for various household groups, noting an increase in the indicator in June of this year by 7.4% compared to the same period in 2021. Thus, the cost of living for households with high average expenses increased by 8.1%, and for households with low expenses – by 6.5%, reflecting the most rapid negative dynamics since 2008, the key drivers of which, as noted, were high tariffs for gasoline and utilities. The NZDUSD pair continues to trade within a global downtrend, gradually rising towards the local resistance level. Technical indicators are ready to reverse and signal to start buying: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator have almost reached the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram has moved into the buying zone, having formed the first rising bar.

Support levels: 0.6213, 0.6062 | Resistance levels: 0.6315, 0.6421

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Crude Oil - Demand for oil contracts is still strong

Oil quotes began the morning session with growth after Reuters reported a drop in US strategic reserves (SPR) to its lowest level since 1985. Thus, according to the national Ministry of Energy report, for the week from July 16 to July 22, the indicator decreased by 5.6M barrels. Thus, the total volume of stocks in storage facilities fell to 474.5M barrels, and this figure will continue to decrease since, according to the plans of the US government, the launch of sour oil on the market is scheduled before the end of this year. On the weekly chart, the price, having rebounded from the support line of the wide channel, turns in the direction of growth, forming a local Head and shoulders pattern. Technical indicators keep a sell signal but have already started a reversal: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator, being in the sell zone, is forming new upward bars.

Support levels: 96.93, 92.4 | Resistance levels: 103.61, 112.32

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S&P 500 in anticipation of the publication of corporate reports

Today, several major players in the US market will present data on the results of the second quarter. Thus, the world leader in information technology, software, and IT services, Microsoft Corp., expects revenue growth at 52.43B dollars, higher than 49.36B dollars shown a quarter earlier. In turn, the Alphabet Inc. holding, which owns the Google brand, predicts a figure of 70.04B dollars against 68.01B dollars. Visa Inc. will record quarterly revenue in the region of 7.06B dollars, which is in line with the 7.19B dollars shown in the previous period. The index quotes are traded within a global downward channel, heading towards the resistance line. Technical indicators keep a stable buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is in the buy zone, continuing to form rising bars.

Support levels: 3907, 3674 | Resistance levels: 4013, 4182


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The ETHUSD pair continues to trade within a wide long-term downward channel. However, over the past two weeks, the cryptocurrency has shown significant growth, adding about 66%, and consolidated at 1660. However, the quotes failed to stay in this area and resumed the decline.
For the development of downward dynamics, the digital asset needs to fall below the support zone of 1375 − 1345 (the middle line of Bollinger bands). In this case, the downside targets will be 1250 and 1125, and 1000. The key “bullish” level is 1625, the breakout of which will allow quotes to continue moving to the area of 1750, 1885 Fibonacci correction 38.2%). Technical indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger bands are directed upwards, Stochastic reversed downwards, while the MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone. Given the long-term trend, a continuation of the price decline soon seems to be a more likely scenario.

Resistance levels: 1500, 1625, 1750, 1885 | Support levels: 1345, 1250, 1125, 1000

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AUDUSD - Inflation in Australia may accelerate
The AUDUSD pair started the week with an upward movement and is currently testing the level of 0.6958. However, consolidation above it seems less likely, as investors refrain from opening new trading positions, waiting for two key releases on Wednesday – the publication of inflation data in Australia and the decision of the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate.

Thus, Q2 CPI is likely to be poor: the indicator will consolidate around 6.1–6.3% YoY, which is twice the target of the Reserve Bank of Australia (2.0–3.0%) and thus will reach the high since 1990. Implementation of the forecast or its exceeding will confirm the fears of the head of the regulator, Philip Lowe, who recently stated that “psychological inflation” is forming in the country when consumers rush to spend available capital, expecting further price increases, which only exacerbates the negative dynamics, which, in turn, could push agency officials to accelerate the pace of interest rate adjustments to 75 basis percentage points, increasing the risks of the national economy going into recession. The trading instrument is within the long-term downward channel, and now the price is testing 0.6958, consolidation above which will allow quotes to strengthen to the area of 0.708. Otherwise, the price decline will resume to 0.6835, 0.6713. Technical indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger bands are horizontal, Stochastic is leaving the overbought zone, forming a sell signal, and the MACD histogram is preparing to move into the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6958, 0.708 | Support levels: 0.6835, 0.6713, 0.6591


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NZDUSD - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) of B appeared, and a downward correction develops as the wave (B) of B, within which the wave C of (B) develops. Now, the fifth wave v of C is forming, within which the wave (iii) of v has ended, and a local correction has ended as the wave (iv) of v.

If the assumption is correct, the NZDUSD pair will fall to the levels of 0.5910 – 0.5800. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6398.
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Silver Technical analysis

H4
On the four-hour chart, there is a long-term consolidation of the asset in the range of 18.12–20, and at the moment, above 18.12, the quotes have formed a Morning star candlestick analysis model, which is a reversal formation at the bottom. Also, an Inverted hammer pattern has formed, the green color of which emphasizes the "bullish" strength. The combination of these figures indicates that the trading instrument has reached the bottom and a high probability of further recovery to the resistance level of 20.56, the breakout of which will increase the upward dynamics to the zone of 22.16−24.22. An alternative scenario is possible if the "bulls" fail to hold the key level of 18.12. The instrument may drop to the range of 16.57–14.6. D1
On the daily chart, the falling Wedge price pattern is being completed. The fact that the asset has reached the bottom is also indicated by the appearance above the support level of 18.12 of a series of Hammer and Inverted hammer figures. Also, the confirmation of the increasing activity of buyers can serve as a model of a "bullish" Belt hold. In this situation, the probable scenario of the price movement seems to be the breakout of the upper border of the Wedge with further growth to the area of 20.56−24.22.
Support levels: 18.12, 16.57, 14.6 | Resistance levels: 20.56, 22.16, 24.22

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GBPUSD - The market is waiting for the US Federal Reserve meeting
However, the current trend is not a consequence of the strengthening of the British currency since the fundamental background is still rather negative. Yesterday, Reach, the publishing house that owns the Daily Mirror and Daily Express newspapers, reported a significant reduction in the number of pages in printed versions due to a record increase in the cost of paper, which in turn is a consequence of the current energy crisis and rapid inflation. According to The Guardian, the publisher's newsprint spending increased by 65%, leading to a 6.0% decline in pages in popular newspapers in the second quarter, the lowest since the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. The increase in the cost of consumables was the driver of Reach Plc. profit drop by 31% in six months. As for the macroeconomic statistics, yesterday, July data on the change in the volume of retail sales from the Confederation of British Industrialists (CBI) were presented, which was poor: the indicator strengthened the negative dynamics from –4 points to –5 points but preliminary estimates for August statistics were even worse, reaching –14.0 points. The trading instrument moves within the global downward channel, reversing upwards. Technical indicators continue to weaken the current sell signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range narrows, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms ascending bars, approaching the transition level.

Support levels: 1.1992, 1.1762 | Resistance levels: 1.2107, 1.2355

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AUD USD - The pair is in a correction, a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of C developed, and a downward correction develops as the wave (2) of C, within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C has developed, and a local correction is ending as the fourth wave iv of C.

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will fall to the levels of 0.66–0.645. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7273.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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USDJPY - Bank of Japan continues buying bonds

As previously reported, officials kept the interest rate at a negative value of –0.1% and announced their intention to continue buying government bonds from the market without setting a cap to consolidate their yield around 0 %. In particular, the bank will purchase 10-year bonds every working day at a consolidated rate of 0.25% for an unlimited amount. In other words, the agency will continue to provide over-issuance, which is observed at the moment and may be one of the reasons for the local strengthening of the yen against the major world currencies.

Yesterday, the Japanese government, in its economic report, gave an optimistic assessment of the development of the national economy against the backdrop of increased consumer activity. Indicators are expected to return to growth in the second quarter after falling at the beginning of the year, although the pace continues to be affected by prolonged disruptions in the supply chains of high-tech devices that are exported from the country, rising raw material costs, and fluctuations in financial markets. The trading instrument moves within the global uptrend. Technical indicators keep a weakening buy signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range narrows and the AO oscillator histogram forms new downward bars, approaching the transition level.

Support levels: 136.05, 133.78 | Resistance levels: 137.77, 139.39


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USDCAD - The instrument continues its downward correction

Yesterday, traders only paid attention to the June data on wholesale sales, which increased by 0.5%, yielding analysts' forecasts of 2.0%. On Friday, Statistics Canada will publish May GDP data, which for the first time in the last nine months, may slow down to –0.2%. However, given the increase in April by 0.3%, there is no talk of a recession in the national economy since the quarterly value, in this case, will be adjusted to 0.1%. On the weekly chart, the price is trading within a wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries 1.26 – 1.32 and is falling towards the support line. Indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms new downwards bars, moving into the sell zone.

Support levels: 1.2816, 1.2644 | Resistance levels: 1.2936, 1.3052


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XRPUSD - Murrey analysis

The XRPUSD pair continues to trade within a long-term downtrend. However, in early June, the quotes formed a sideways range of 0.293–0.366, which they still cannot leave. Last week, the cryptocurrency again tested its upper limit but failed to break through higher and began to decline. At present, the price of the asset has consolidated below 0.3418, supported by the middle line of Bollinger bands, which gives the prospect of further decline to 0.2930. In case of a repeated breakout of 0.3418, the price will return to the area of 0.3662. In general, movement is predicted within the formed sideways range since there are no serious drivers for a trend change in the market. Technical indicators show opposite signals, confirming the uncertainty of the market: Bollinger bands are directed upwards, Stochastic reversed downwards, and the MACD histogram is near the zero line. Its volumes are insignificant.

Resistance levels: 0.3418, 0.366, 0.39 | Support levels: 0.3174, 0.293

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Crude Oil - Prices hold above 95 dollars per barrel

Thus, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API) statistics, the indicator decreased by 4.037M barrels, which was four times lower than the analysts' forecast. However, traders are concerned about the possible pressure on the instrument after the increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, whose meeting will be held today. Due to the active strengthening of the dollar, goods denominated in US currency will become more expensive for buyers from other countries.

Nevertheless, prices are supported by the reduction in the supply of Russian gas to the EU countries via the Nord Stream gas pipeline. Yesterday, Gazprom announced that it would be able to ensure the loading of only 20% of its nominal capacity, which could cause an increase in demand for energy resources, including oil, to replenish the missing volumes partially. The subsequent decision of the EU countries to switch to a regime of reducing gas consumption somewhat restrained the growth of quotations. Thus, the balance of positive and negative fundamental factors is confirmed by technical analysis. After a decline and an attempt to break through 95.00 in the middle of the month, oil prices stabilized slightly above the indicated level within the range of 97.00–100.00. However, the long-term trend remains upward, so a new wave of growth may develop after the announcement of the decision of the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate. The target zone will be 105.76–103.55. The medium-term trend is downwards. Last week, market participants unsuccessfully tried to break through the key trend resistance 100.11–99.25, and as a result, the price returned under it. This week, it is worth considering short positions with the target at the July low of 90.80. The downward scenario will be canceled after the consolidation above 100.11. In this case, long positions with the target at 108.71–107.85 are relevant.

Resistance levels: 103.55, 105.76 | Support levels: 95, 85


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USDCAD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of 5 forms, within which the wave 3 of (1) develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 is developing, within which the wave (iii) of iii is appearing.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will grow to the area of 1.341–1.37. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2521.


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