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The European currency received a positive impetus

The euro continues to strengthen locally in tandem with the US dollar after the publication of a positive report on the dynamics of consumer prices. According to statistics, in June the indicator added 0.8% and the annual value reached 8.6%, which is fully consistent with the preliminary estimates of the market and representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB). These macroeconomic data will influence the decision of the members of the regulator during tomorrow's meeting on monetary policy, and the fact that inflation in the eurozone remains in line with expectations may signal an increase in interest rates in a standard 25 basis point increment, which will be enough to contain price increases. In this case, euro quotes will receive short-term support. Despite the quite expected achievement of the absolute low of the year, EURUSD remained within the global downward channel and is now forming another wave of growth. Technical indicators hurried to give a signal for the beginning of the correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are actively approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming upward bars.

Support levels: 1.0185, 1 | Resistance levels: 1.035, 1.0624


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The Australian currency continues its upward correction

The Australian currency is taking a lead from the positive momentum received the day before after the publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on monetary policy. In particular, the document reflects the opinions of officials of the regulator, as well as full-fledged justifications for the recent increase in the interest rate by 50 basis points, and not by 25, as previously expected. The committee members decided to tighten monetary conditions more rapidly, taking into account the situation in the United States. The fact is that the US Federal Reserve clearly missed the moment when it was necessary to take tough measures regarding the adjustment of monetary parameters, and now, because of this, it is becoming increasingly difficult for officials to contain record inflation rates. Against this background, the RBA considered that a sharp increase in rates is the best option in these conditions, which will not allow them to face a recession in the future. Investors and analysts took the rhetoric of the financial authorities very positively and supported the Australian currency with purchases. On the global chart, the price continues to remain inside the Expanding Formation pattern and, having rebounded from the support line, forms a new wave of corrective growth. Technical indicators signal the presence of a correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator began to approach the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is trading in the sell zone, forming ascending bars.

Support levels: 0.6857, 0.668 | Resistance levels: 0.699, 0.712


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USDCAD - Technical analysis

H4
On the four-hour chart of the asset, at the level of 1.2971, there is a formation of the Three Black Crows candlestick analysis pattern, which signals the continuation of the negative dynamics of the quotations of the trading instrument, and at the level of 1.2921, the Tweezer Top pattern has been fixed, indicating another local resistance for buyers. In the current situation, a scenario with a downward movement to the support level of 1.2814 is more likely, overcoming which will allow the "bears" to continue the decline to the area of 1.2626−1.2458. An alternative scenario is possible if buyers manage to hold positions at 1.2814 and reverse the situation in their favor, and then the asset will be able to recover in the range of 1.2971–1.3243. D1
On the daily chart, there is a Three Mountain Tops candlestick analysis pattern with the appearance of formed Tops, which, in turn, emphasizes the overbought asset and the fact that above these levels the "bulls" meet strong resistance. The sellers' activity confirms the appearance of the Hanging Man reversal pattern at the level of 1.2971. A further decline in quotations to the area of 1.2814 is expected, after which the "bears" will be able to continue moving upwards to the level of 1.2458.

Support levels: 1.2814, 1.2626, 1.2458 | Resistance levels: 1.2971, 1.3177, 1.3443


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AUDUSD - The probability of decline remains.

On the daily chart, the development of the first wave of the higher level (1) of C has completed, and now there is a downward correction as wave (2) of C, which includes the formation of wave C of (2). At the moment, the development of the third wave of the lower level iii of C has completed and a local correction is being formed as the fourth wave iv of C.

If the assumption is correct, AUDUSD will fall to the levels of 0.6446–0.6082. The level of 0.7273 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

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GBPUSD - UK inflation reaches new highs

According to the June report, consumer prices rose by 0.8% compared to the previous month, and the annual rate rose to 9.4%, which was an absolute record among the world's leading economies. In turn, the Producer Price Index in just a month increased by 1.8%, and the annual value was 24.0% compared to 22.4%, shown in May. It is already becoming clear that any measures taken by the Bank of England are not able to contain the negative dynamics and, most likely, by the end of the year inflation will indeed exceed the 10.0% barrier, as some experts have previously anticipated. Investors were also disappointed with the report on the dynamics of changes in DCLG House Price Index, where now the annual value is 12.8%, which was not the case in the entire history of observations. GBPUSD is trading within the global downtrend channel, reversing towards growth. Technical indicators hold a sell signal, but do not exclude an upward correction: the range of the Alligator indicator EMAs fluctuations started to narrow down and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms ascending bars.

Support levels: 1.1815, 1.154 | Resistance levels: 1.2150, 1.2627

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USDJPY - the Bank of Japan announced the continuation of the redemption of bonds

The changes will not affect the interest rate, which is expected to be kept at a negative level of –0.10%, but, according to the decision of the officials, the rules for the redemption of government bonds will be adjusted. Purchases of securities will continue with no volume cap, and transactions in bonds with a fixed rate of 0.25% will now take place every business day. The bank also intends to acquire shares of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate trusts worth about 12 trillion yen and 180 billion yen, respectively. In addition, corporate bond buybacks worth up to 3 trillion yen will continue. Thus, one can say with confidence that the high volatility in USD/JPY will increase, and against the backdrop of a declining US dollar, the yen has high chances for a correction. The trading instrument is trading in the global uptrend, below the annual high of 139.00. Technical indicators are holding a buy signal, which started to weaken: the fluctuation range of the Alligator indicator EMAs is slightly narrowing and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming new descending bars and approaching the transition level.

Support levels: 136.7, 134.2 | Resistance levels: 139, 141

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Alibaba Group - The possibility of growth remains.

On the daily chart, the ascending first wave of the higher level 1 has been formed, the development of the downward correction as wave 2 has completed, and the formation of the third wave 3 has also begun. At the moment, the first wave of the lower level 1 of (1) of 3 is developing, in which the wave iii of 1 has already been identified, as well as the corrective wave iv of 1.

If the assumption is correct, the price will rise to the levels of 160.9−182.6. The level of 80.35 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

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Crude Oil - lower demand for gasoline in the USA puts pressure on quotes

Earlier, data from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) were published, which put pressure on the positions of the trading instrument. In particular, oil reserves decreased by 0.446M barrels, and distillates — by 1.296M barrels, while gasoline reserves in the USA immediately increased by 3.498M barrels, which worries investors, since such a rapid drop in gasoline demand during the summer car season can mean serious problems in the national economy. Probably, the population cannot pay for fuel at the new high tariffs, which threatens to further reduce its sales. An additional factor of pressure on prices is the resumption of production at a number of fields in Libya, where a regime of force majeure was previously announced. Now the trading instrument is testing the mark of 103.12 (Murray [1/8]), consolidation below which will allow the quotes to continue moving to the area of 100 (Murray [0/8], Fibo retracement 50.0%) and 96.88 (Murray [-1/8]). The key for the "bulls" is still the level of 108, the breakout of which will be a catalyst for growth to the levels of 112.5 (Murray [4/8]), 115.62 (Murray [5/8]).

Technical indicators signal the continuation of the decline: the Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, the Stochastic is reversing downwards in the overbought zone, and the MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 108, 112.50, 115.62 | Support levels: 103.12, 100.00, 96.88


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ADAUSD: technical analysis

This week, the digital asset made an attempt to grow, which was unsuccessful: after testing the 0.545 mark, the price went down again. Consolidation of the quotes below 0.4882 (Murray [2/8]) will allow them to continue moving to the levels of 0.4394 (Murray [1/8]) or 0.417 (near the July lows). The key for the "bulls" is the 0.5371 mark (Murray [3/8]), at the breakout of which it will be possible to resume the upward dynamics to the levels of 0.5859 (Murray [4/8]), 0.61 (Fibo retracement 23.6%), 0.6347 (Murray [5/8]).
Technical indicators show opposite signals: the Bollinger Bands are reversing upwards, and the Stochastic is reversing downwards, while the MACD histogram is at the zero line and its volumes are insignificant.

Resistance levels: 0.5371, 0.5859, 0.61, 0.6347 | Support levels: 0.4882, 0.4394, 0.417

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McDonald’s - The price can rise.

On the daily chart, the development of the fifth wave of the higher level (5) continues, in which wave 3 of (5) is observed, the downward correction ended as the fourth wave 4 of (5) and the fifth wave 5 of (5) is developing. At the moment, the first wave of the lower level i of 5 has appeared, the correction as the second wave ii of 5 has completed, and wave iii of 5 is developing, in which wave (iii) of iii is being formed.

If the assumption is correct, the price will rise to the levels of 280–295. The level of 231.85 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.


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USDCHF - trading instrument is preparing to continue to decline

However, there are no prerequisites for the strengthening of the franc at the moment either. Instead, the economic situation in Switzerland is rapidly deteriorating, and in the near future the country may face an acute energy crisis. At least, this is what Michael Frank, director of the VSE association of Swiss electricity companies, said. According to him, power outages were caused by a reduction in gas supplies from Russia and the shutdown of nuclear power plants in France for maintenance. The only way to stabilize the situation, Frank sees a phased reduction in resource consumption, which, in particular, includes limiting the illuminating of shop windows and streets, and if this is not enough, then turning off individual regions for four hours in turn. The Swiss authorities predict an increase in the negative dynamics of electricity prices. According to the head of the government’s advisory commission for electricity, Elcom, Urs Meister, ordinary citizens' electricity bills could grow by an average of 20% next year. This conclusion comes from a survey of suppliers who intend to raise prices by 47% amid rising coal prices, likely problems with exports from neighboring countries and global supply uncertainty. On the global chart of the asset, the price is correcting within the lateral channel, preparing to continue the local decline. Technical indicators have almost reversed and issued a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator came close to the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram has already moved into the sell zone, continuing to form descending bars.

Support levels: 0.9652, 0.953 | Resistance levels: 0.9739, 1

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Altria Group - The price is in correction, the probability of growth is maintained.

On the daily chart, the development of the first wave of the higher level (1) has completed and a downward correction is observed as the second wave (2). At the moment, wave А of (2) has formed, within which the fifth wave of the lower level v of A has completed, and the development of an upward correction as wave B of (2) has also begun.

If the assumption is correct, the asset quotes will continue the uptrend to the levels of 47.15 - 49.1. The level of 40.80 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

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EURUSD - the ECB raised its base rate for the first time since 2011

Euro quotes reacted ambiguously to the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to tighten monetary policy at a more aggressive pace. The result of the meeting of the regulator, which took place the day before, was an increase in all three key indicators by 50 basis points at once for the first time after an 11-year break. Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be increased to 0.50%, 0.75% and 0.00% respectively, with effect from 27 July 2022. In addition, the ECB noted the expediency of continuing the "hawkish" course. In particular, the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) and the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) will continue, and the launch of Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) will be announced, which will minimize discrepancies in borrowing costs for euro area countries. As a result, it is obvious that the ECB considers the current time to be suitable for a more serious increase in rates and hopes in this way to significantly reduce the rapid inflation by autumn, bringing it to the target of 2.0% in 2023. Despite the external pressure, EUR/USD is holding within the global downward channel and is now forming another wave of corrective growth. Technical indicators gave a signal for the beginning of the correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are actively approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming upward bars.

Support levels: 1 , 0.9752 | Resistance levels: 1.0277, 1.0586


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USDJPY - The possibility of growth remains.

On the daily chart, the formation of the first wave of the higher level (1) continues, in which wave 3 of (1) is formed. At the moment, the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 is developing, as part of which wave (iii) of iii is forming.

If the assumption is correct, USDJPY will rise to the levels of 142–145. The level of 134.69 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.
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Crude Oil: technical analysis

Quotes of Crude Oil have continued to decline since the end of last month and have now left the ascending channel, testing the 95.45 mark (Fibo retracement 50.0%). Consolidation of the price below it will allow the movement to continue up to 87.5. The key for the "bulls" is a strong resistance level of 102.5 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands), the breakout of which will act as catalysts for upward dynamics to the area of 106.25, 112, however, this option is currently estimated as less probable. Technical indicators point out the continuation of the current trend: the Bollinger Bands and the Stochastic have reversed downwards, the MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 102.5, 106.25, 112 | Support levels: 95.45, 87.5, 85

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USDCHF, H4

On the four-hour chart, the Three "bearish" steps downwards trend continuation pattern is formed, which signals increasing sales. However, the asset has also formed the Doji rickshaw model. This figure means that the forces of "bulls" and "bears" are equal at the moment, but its appearance in a local base can mean both a reversal of quotes up and a continuation of the downward movement. In the current situation, the decrease to the support level of 0.9538 seems more likely, which breakdown will allow sellers to move into the range of 0.9410–0.9167. An alternative option is possible after the price breaks the upper border of the trend channel and the resistance level of 0.9667 with the growth target at 0.9828–1.0032. USDCHF, D1

On the daily chart, at 0.9828, Shooting star and Hanging man reversal patterns are forming, from where the asset rushed down. Also, a series of Three "bearish" steps candlestick analysis patterns have formed, which are models for the continuation of a downtrend. Probably, the asset is trying to test the key support level of 0.9538, and if the "bulls" fail to hold it, then the movement will continue to the area of 0.9410–0.9167.
Support levels: 0.9538, 0.941, 0.9167 | Resistance levels: 0.9667, 0.9828, 1.0032



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EURUSD - Growth is possible

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level ended as the wave (B), within which the wave C of (B) formed. The upward wave (С) is forming now, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (C) is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will grow to the levels of 1.0612 – 1.0787. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9944.

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GBP USD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) formed, and a downward correction ended as the second wave (2). Now, the third upward wave (3) has started to develop, within which the first wave entry of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (3) is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the GBPUSD pair will grow to the levels of 1.2674 – 1.315. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.175.
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AUDUSD: upward correction in the asset

At the recent Australian Strategic Business Forum – Melbourne, the head of the Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, announced a preliminary forecast that inflation in the country would accelerate, and new anti-records may be reflected in the quarterly report, after which another peak in consumer prices will probably have to at the end of the year. Analysts suggest that in the second quarter, the figure will increase from the current 5.1% to 6.3% against the continued decline in key sectors of the economy. Thus, in June, Manufacturing PMI fell to 55.7 points from 56.2 points, and Service PMI – to 50.4 points from 52.6 points a month earlier. In his speech, the head of the financial department also said that the neutral key rate at the current inflation rate should be at least 2.5%, while now it consolidates at 1.35%. Faster labor productivity growth will likely be a catalyst for the higher value. The price remains inside the Expanding formation pattern on the global chart, rising within the local trend. Technical indicators signal the presence of an upward correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator have almost reached the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram has approached the transition level.

Support levels: 0.6855, 0.671 | Resistance levels: 0.6978, 0.712

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Crude Oil - Global oil supply continues to rise

The pressure on the quotes of the trading instrument is exerted by messages from Libya, where the growth in the oil production has already exceeded 800.0K barrels per day after the resumption of work at five fields. Also, the national Ministry of Oil and Gas representatives announced plans to increase daily production to 1.2M barrels by next month. Preliminary data on oil supply from Iraq and Saudi Arabia to the EU countries also speak about the stabilization of supply. Thus, Bloomberg reports that Saudi Arabia transports oil by tankers to Egypt, from where it is sent to the European market via the Sumed pipeline. According to statistics, since the beginning of July, the pumping has already amounted to more than 1M barrels of oil per day, which is almost twice as much as last year. As for supplies from Iraq, they are carried out by sea, and in July, the figure here reached 1.2M barrels per day, while the total volume of fuel supplied from the countries of the Middle East was recorded at around 2.2M barrels per day, which also 90% higher than the January value. On the weekly chart, the price continues to fall towards the support line of a possible downtrend. Technical indicators keep a stable sell signal: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator move away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram, being in the sell zone, forms new correction bars.

Support levels: 95.62, 88.7 | Resistance levels: 101.1, 108

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