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XAUUSD - The pair is in a correction, a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction develops as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) forms. Now, the fifth wave v of C is developing, within which the third wave of the lower level (iii) of v of C is ending the formation.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correctional wave (iv) of v of C, the XAUUSD pair will fall to the levels of 1681.1–1621.9. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1811.8.

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Gold - The pair is in a correction, a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction develops as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) forms. Now, the fifth wave v of C is developing, within which the third wave of the lower level (iii) of v of C is ending the formation.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correctional wave (iv) of v of C, the XAUUSD pair will fall to the levels of 1681.1–1621.9. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1811.8.


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NZDUSD technical analysis

H4
On the four-hour chart of the asset, at the level of 0.6107, there is a formation of a Hammer candlestick pattern, which signals a possible change in the trend to an upward one, as well as a "bullish" Engulfing pattern at the level of 0.6174, which means a reversal of quotes at the bottom. In the current situation, the priority scenario is an increase from the level of 0.6246 to the zone of 0.6559−0.6869. An alternative scenario is possible if the buyers fail to hold the key support level of 0.6107, then the price may drop even lower to the range of 0.5929–0.5755. D1
On the daily chart, a Falling Wedge price pattern is observed, and at the moment, an upward exit from the "bearish" trend channel is being implemented. A positive signal for the asset is the appearance of a Hammer reversal pattern at the support level of 0.6107, which can act as a catalyst for the uptrend from the level of 0.6246 up to the level of 0.6869. If the price consolidates below the level of 0.6107, the trading instrument may show a decrease to the zone of 0.5929−0.5755.

Support levels: 0.6107, 0.5929, 0.5755 | Resistance levels: 0.6246, 0.6559, 0.6869
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Crude Oil - The probability of decline remains.

On the daily chart, the formation of the first wave of the higher level 1 of (1) of C has completed, and a downward correction is observed as the second wave 2 of (1) of C, in which the wave of the lower level a of 2 is developing. At the moment, the wave (i) of a has already been formed, the correctional wave (ii) of a has completed, and the third wave of the lower level (iii) of a is also developing.

If the assumption is correct, the price of WTI Crude Oil will fall to 82.3 – 67. The level of 105.93 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

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Netflix - The possibility of growth remains.

On the daily chart, wave A of the higher level has formed, and the development of a downward correction as wave B has also completed. At the moment, wave C is being built, where the first leading wave of the lower level 1 of (1) of C has already appeared, the local correction as wave 2 of (1) of C has been completed, and the development of the third wave 3 of (1) of C has begun.

If the assumption is correct, the price will rise to the levels of 326.97 – 397. The level of 163.03 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

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Silver - The probability of decline remains.

On the daily chart, there is a downward correction of the higher level as the second wave (2), in which wave C of (2) is formed. At the moment, the fifth wave v of C is developing, which includes wave (v) of v.

If the assumption is correct, XAGUSD will fall to the levels of 17.2 – 15.77. The level of 19.44 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

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Netflix - The possibility of growth remains.

On the daily chart, wave A of the higher level has formed, and the development of a downward correction as wave B has also completed. At the moment, wave C is being built, where the first leading wave of the lower level 1 of (1) of C has already appeared, the local correction as wave 2 of (1) of C has been completed, and the development of the third wave 3 of (1) of C has begun.

If the assumption is correct, the price will rise to the levels of 326.97 – 397. The level of 163.03 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Walt Disney - The probability of decline remains.

On the daily chart, the development of wave A of the higher level has completed, and now there is a downward correction as wave B with the formation of wave (A) of B. In addition, the fifth wave of the lower level 5 of (A) is being formed, within which the wave of the third wave v of 5 is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 80 – 62.5. The level of 113.45 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.


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EURUSD - the euro takes every opportunity to correct

Tomorrow, market participants will follow the June macroeconomic data on consumer prices in the EU, which will determine the rhetoric of the European Central Bank (ECB) in terms of tightening monetary policy in the near future. Analysts expect inflation to remain at the May level of 8.6%, which is nonetheless unlikely given the sharp rise to 5.8% in France and 10.2% in Spain. If the experts' forecasts come true, one should expect more "dovish" signals from the financial authorities and an increase in the interest rate with a standard step of 0.25% or 0.50%. The trading instrument is within the global descending channel, near the support line. Technical indicators maintain the global sell signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are significantly below the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the sell zone, forming new correction ascending bars.

Support levels: 1, 0.98 | Resistance levels: 1.0197, 1.037

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BTCUSD

The BTCUSD pair continues to trade within the framework of a long-term downtrend, however, in the last few weeks the decline has slowed down, and the price has formed a sideways range of 18750 - 22500, within which it remains at the present time. Now the quotes of "digital gold" are testing its upper limit, the breakout of which will allow us to continue moving to the levels of 25000 and 28125. The key for the "bears" is the mark of 18750, at the breakdown of which the downward dynamics will resume to the range of 15625, 12500 and 10000. In general, the long-term downward trend is still maintained, but in order for it to continue, quotes need to break through the current side channel. Judging by the indicators illustrating the uncertainty of the market, a trend change is unlikely in the near future, and the price will continue to move sideways.

Resistance levels: 22500, 25000, 28125, 31250 | Support levels: 18750, 15625, 12500, 10000

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USDCHF - technical analysis

H4
A Double Top price pattern is forming on the four-hour chart, and the USD/CHF quotes are currently near the Neck line, overcoming which will mean the continuation of the active phase of decline. The negative dynamics is intensified by the appearance at the resistance level of 0.9840 of the Shooting Star and Hanging Man figures following each other. In addition, the downward movement is due to the formation of the Three Black Crows trend continuation pattern in the range of 0.9840–0.9790. Currently, the asset has formed another Shooting Star candlestick analysis pattern at 0.9790, which signals growing "bearish" sentiment in the market. In the current situation, the scenario with a decrease in the trading instrument to the support level of 0.9697 seems more likely, overcoming which will allow quotes to fall to the area of 0.9548−0.9421. An alternative scenario is possible if the price consolidates above the resistance level of 0.9840 and then moves up to the level of 1.0117. D1
On the daily chart, at the level of 0.9840, there is the formation of a Hanging Man reversal pattern, which indicates that the quotes have consolidated the top and met with strong resistance. This was confirmed by the formation of a classic Shooting Star candlestick analysis pattern, which similarly illustrates the completion of a "bullish" trend. At the moment, probably, there is a formation of the Falling Three Methods figure, which is a signal for the continuation of the downtrend. If the sellers overcome the support level of 0.9697, one should expect further continuation of the negative dynamics in USDCHF currency pair to the area of 0.9548−0.9421.

Support levels: 0.9697, 0.9548, 0.9421 | Resistance levels: 0.984, 1.0033, 1.0117


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EURUSD - The possibility of growth remains.

On the daily chart, the development of the downward correction of the higher level as wave (B) has completed, in which the wave C of (B) has formed, and the fifth wave of the lower level (v) of v of B has also appeared and the formation of the upward wave of the higher level (B) has begun.

If the assumption is correct, EUR/USD will rise to the levels of 1.0612–1.0787. The level of 0.9944 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

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GBPUSD - The possibility of growth remains.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) has been formed and the downward correction as the second wave (2) has ended. At the moment, the wave C of (2) has developed, in which the fifth wave of the lower level v of C is built, and the formation of the ascending third wave (3) has begun.

If the assumption is correct, GBPUSD will rise to the levels of 1.2674–1.315. The level of 1.175 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

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Nvidia - The price is in correction; the probability of growth is maintained.

On the daily chart, the downward correction of the higher level continues as wave (B), within which wave C of (B) is being formed. At the moment, the third wave of the lower level iii of C has already been built, and there is also a local correction as the fourth wave iv of C, in which wave (c) of iv began to develop.

If the assumption is correct, the price will rise to the levels of 207.45–222.45. The level of 141.81 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

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USDJPY - the epidemiological situation in Japan is rapidly deteriorating

The trading instrument is under pressure from reports of a sharp deterioration in the epidemiological situation in Japan, as a number of prefectures recorded record levels of COVID-19 infection. The day before, the number of detected cases reached 110.670K, which is the absolute daily maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. The main focus of the spread continues to be Tokyo, where the statistics reflected 17.709K cases. As for the economic component, already on Thursday the Bank of Japan will publish its decision on the interest rate, and analysts suggest that the rate will be kept at a negative level of –0.10%, as the country's financial authorities prefer to fight the unprecedented inflation by buying assets, rather than tightening monetary conditions. The trading instrument is in the global uptrend, dropping below the annual high of 139. Technical indicators maintain a steady buy signal: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator is still wide, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming new multi-directional bars, being high in the purchase area.

Support levels: 136.73, 132.1 | Resistance levels: 139, 142


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Quotes of XAUUSD are correcting in a downtrend, being in the area of 1710.

While most experts expect the US Federal Reserve to increase interest rates, some analysts have begun to openly speak out in favor of the fact that the regulator will not be able to stick to the current "hawkish" course for a long time. The fact is that such a rapid tightening of monetary conditions increases the risks of a recession, which could have a more devastating effect on the economy than the current record inflation. US officials will either raise the rate to the required 4.75%–5%, or refuse such steps altogether, which will lead to an increase in the Consumer Price Index above 10.0%. Whatever scenario the US regulator chooses, this will have a positive effect on the precious metals market, as investors will urgently start looking for a "safe haven" transferring their capital into gold. Despite the positive fundamental background, the technical picture on the price chart does not yet give buying signals: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the sell zone, forming descending bars.

Support levels: 1697, 1650. | Resistance levels: 1725, 1786.

S&P 500 - positive momentum after the publication of corporate reports

One of the world's largest investment banks, a financial conglomerate Goldman Sachs Group, reported income of 11.86 billion dollars, which significantly exceeded the 10.85 billion dollars predicted by analysts. Earnings per share came in at 7.73 dollars amid early market estimates of 6.64 dollars. In turn, the software and consulting services company IBM Corp. showed quarterly revenue of 15.54 billion dollars instead of 15.09 billion dollars expected by experts. Earnings per share came in at 2.31 dollars, also well above the 1.4 dollars reported a quarter ago. The only major market participant that noted negative dynamics in its report was Bank of America Corp.: its revenue fell to 22.69 billion dollars from 22.72 billion dollars and earnings per share were 0.73 dollars, compared to the projected 0.74 dollars.

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Silver - H4

On the four-hour chart of the asset at the level of 18.22, there is a formation of a Long-Legged Doji candlestick analysis pattern, signaling uncertainty in the market or a possible reversal, which is also confirmed by the formation of the Morning Star pattern, after which the trading instrument showed a price recovery to the level of 19.07. At the moment, the quotes are moving in the sideways range of 18.62–19.07, where the Hammer and Bullish Belt Hold patterns have already appeared. Their combination signals that the asset has probably reached a low and is reversing. At the moment, the uptrend to the resistance level of 19.50 is seen as a priority, consolidation above which will allow the "bulls" to head to the zone of 20.95–24.19. An alternative scenario may be realized if the price breaks the key support level at 18.22, then the decline may intensify up to the level of 14.77. D1

On the daily chart, there is the formation of a Falling Wedge price pattern, which may end at the support level of 18.22, and a Hammer, the appearance of which indicates that the price has reached the bottom. In the current situation, the scenario with an upward movement from the level of 18.22 is seen as a priority. Overcoming the upper border of the Falling Wedge and consolidation of the quotes above 19.50 will mean a final upward reversal and will allow the "bulls" to restore their positions in the range of 20.95–24.19.

Support levels: 18.22, 16.74, 14.77 | Resistance levels: 19.50, 20.95, 24.19

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The European currency received a positive impetus

The euro continues to strengthen locally in tandem with the US dollar after the publication of a positive report on the dynamics of consumer prices. According to statistics, in June the indicator added 0.8% and the annual value reached 8.6%, which is fully consistent with the preliminary estimates of the market and representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB). These macroeconomic data will influence the decision of the members of the regulator during tomorrow's meeting on monetary policy, and the fact that inflation in the eurozone remains in line with expectations may signal an increase in interest rates in a standard 25 basis point increment, which will be enough to contain price increases. In this case, euro quotes will receive short-term support. Despite the quite expected achievement of the absolute low of the year, EURUSD remained within the global downward channel and is now forming another wave of growth. Technical indicators hurried to give a signal for the beginning of the correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are actively approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming upward bars.

Support levels: 1.0185, 1 | Resistance levels: 1.035, 1.0624

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USDCHF - The possibility of growth remains.

On the daily chart, the development of the third wave of the higher level 3 of (3) continues, in which wave iii of 3 formed and the correction ended as the fourth wave iv of 3. At the moment, the construction of the fifth wave v of 3 is underway, in which the first wave of the lower level (i) of v has already appeared, and the development of a local correction as a wave (ii) of v is also being completed.

If the assumption is correct, USDCHF will rise to the levels of 1.02–1.035. The level of 0.949 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

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