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The Swamp

  • #102,301
  • Jul 10, 2022 3:42pm Jul 10, 2022 3:42pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Every available metric shows we are already in a recession. The bond market, as usual, is key, and it tightened before the fed did anything and its already peaked in rates, also before the fed. Always remember the fed is a slave to data, and the bond markets, and all that data is lagging. Whereas the market is forward looking. its still somewhat contrarian but a fed pivot seems forced on Powell, probably this summer, wether he knows it or not. Obviously a fed pivot is bullish. They dont operate in a vacuum and we are already seeing the Fisher...
EXCELLENT! Thank you for this information, it is very much appreciated.
  • #102,302
  • Jul 10, 2022 3:51pm Jul 10, 2022 3:51pm
Quoting gatorinla
The usdx already hit a pool at 107.61 (week).. It hit the fib extension at 107.76 (ATM high 107.78) I have a large number At 108.09 (2 decade pool). The usdx is on steroids interest rate wise.. But this area is bigger than anything we have seen in 20 years. It should react. I don't know for sure, and neither does anyone else. If there is a place where it looks to have the potential to drop, this is it. Back to 103.59 100.66 or even 97.73 is possible. The usd is like 2x per eu pip. So if it drops to 103.59. That's 419 pips. 2X on the EU is 836 pips...
Thanks Gator. Your work here is pure gold. Thank you.
  • #102,303
  • Jul 10, 2022 4:34pm Jul 10, 2022 4:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I have 0743/70. I think both in-between then an now I don't know what support will develop below those. I don't know how deep it will go into 0158. It may not go deep enough to clear all that minor support. I don't know if some news event will blow through those S/R. I don't know if past setups will reproduce a future reaction. I did place a reasonable number for the s/l. The 0198 one has the larger potential. It could maybe get away with a 10 pip stop, and the 40 pip tp. 1 to 4 R/R. I used the 20 pips only because the potential it may run...
Shooting for a short 1.0207.. stop 0219 tp open, but set at 0150..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #102,304
  • Jul 10, 2022 4:50pm Jul 10, 2022 4:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Shooting for a short 1.0207.. stop 0219 tp open, but set at 0150..
I placed a like trade at 0214.. I raised the stop to 1.0219.5.. tp one of them around 0180. If its not a long red reject candle. Compared to the recent ones, I may be wrong. It should have a violent reject. I opted out of 0198 to get less risk.. It may drop before reaching the entry with a long red candle..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #102,305
  • Jul 10, 2022 7:14pm Jul 10, 2022 7:14pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I placed a like trade at 0214.. I raised the stop to 1.0219.5.. tp one of them around 0180. If its not a long red reject candle. Compared to the recent ones, I may be wrong. It should have a violent reject. I opted out of 0198 to get less risk.. It may drop before reaching the entry with a long red candle..
To 1.0158/47 first? Long from 1.0158/47?
  • #102,306
  • Jul 10, 2022 7:27pm Jul 10, 2022 7:27pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Shooting for a short 1.0207.. stop 0219 tp open, but set at 0150..
High for me here at 0185 seems like it is going south first to test support
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #102,307
  • Jul 11, 2022 2:50am Jul 11, 2022 2:50am
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} Added 0160. 0108 was a small one. So I held it.
Flat all shorts 0108.
Sideline for now...
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #102,308
  • Jul 11, 2022 3:37am Jul 11, 2022 3:37am
Quoting KevinZeng
{quote} To 1.0158/47 first? Long from 1.0158/47?
Just little pools of liquidity. Not really support.. Something to attract. No old positions are left from 2000 above 1.0026. But probably some new long stops 1.0026/0.9970.
You had little pools around 0247/58.. Price is attracted to those stops. Those stops, and 0131 looked ripe, So did, and still does Is the ones at 1.0198/1.0218. These are very small compared to 1.0129/1.0026. 1.0129/1.0026 20 years back probably contained a lot of liquidity. The shorts SL from 20 years ago from there were hit. The longs from there 20 years ago were already cashed in. But its still a algo area. Longs are accumulating sl there again. Below Friday's low. Once a bubble pops. Its often repealed. Larger intuitions are probably buying 1.0129/1.0026. Those stops are probably below 0.9970.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #102,309
  • Jul 11, 2022 4:17am Jul 11, 2022 4:17am
Adr is about 100 pips. Early e session usually reverses. If that has happened. It would put that .0217 area in focus. Using the atm low.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #102,310
  • Jul 11, 2022 4:28am Jul 11, 2022 4:28am
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} Flat all shorts 0108. Sideline for now...
Watching 0112x. (0105/12.) It it bounces there.. 0105 may hold.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #102,311
  • Jul 11, 2022 7:15am Jul 11, 2022 7:15am
UJ is flying again. The most interesting chart in last three months.
I never trade it.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #102,312
  • Edited 7:59am Jul 11, 2022 7:22am | Edited 7:59am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} so glad .. I am sideline on my big account for days...
Just woke up ..seeing a little divergence going on, last Friday Eur low 1.0071 when dollar hit 107.78. Today dollar broke higher to 107.87 , Eur only drop to 1.0082...
lets see this divergency can play out..
I am still sideline atm... deep inside me feeling they are trying to push Eur to parity and there is a good chance they will get it or very close to it..
..
  • #102,313
  • Edited 7:54am Jul 11, 2022 7:33am | Edited 7:54am
At this level, the US worker's income are at the highest level in 20 years against EuroZone, while more and more US workers refuses the job offers, a divergence, so I have changed my view about EURUSD path...1.30xxx in less than 2 years...
I am who I am
  • #102,314
  • Jul 11, 2022 7:36am Jul 11, 2022 7:36am
Eur bearish in all time frames,,,
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  • #102,315
  • Jul 11, 2022 7:39am Jul 11, 2022 7:39am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Just woke up ..seeing a little divergence going on, last Friday Eur low 1.0071 when dollar hit 107.78. Today dollar broke higher to 107.87 , Eur only drop to 1.0082... lets see this divergency can play out.. I am still sideline atm... since deep inside me feeling they are trying to push Eur to parity and there is a good chance they will get it or very close to it.. ..
dollar still making new high.. 107.97 atm..
  • #102,316
  • Jul 11, 2022 7:45am Jul 11, 2022 7:45am
If Gold fails to break the previous 3 day lows ill look to take a long with potential targets of 1755, 1770 and 1785
Cheers!!
  • #102,317
  • Jul 11, 2022 8:05am Jul 11, 2022 8:05am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Just woke up ..seeing a little divergence going on, last Friday Eur low 1.0071 when dollar hit 107.78. Today dollar broke higher to 107.87 , Eur only drop to 1.0082... lets see this divergency can play out.. I am still sideline atm... deep inside me feeling they are trying to push Eur to parity and there is a good chance they will get it or very close to it.. ..
cancel that divergency.. Eur made new low...
day range low has reached at 1.0073,
dollar hit high 108.03,,still going
  • #102,318
  • Jul 11, 2022 8:07am Jul 11, 2022 8:07am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} dollar still making new high.. 107.97 atm..
Maybe below parity today..
  • #102,319
  • Jul 11, 2022 8:11am Jul 11, 2022 8:11am
Quoting Connors
{quote} Maybe below parity today..
yeah,,, 5 days ago.. I read


"Shorting the single currency has become one of the most popular trades, with strategists from Nomura International Plc to HSBC Bank Plc telling clients to expect more losses ahead. There’s around a 50% implied probability of the euro hitting parity in the next month according to a Bloomberg options-pricing model. "
  • #102,320
  • Jul 11, 2022 8:19am Jul 11, 2022 8:19am
Quoting gatorinla
Week chart... looking for a swing/position trade on ea. I'm hoping to buy it 1.4770/1.4801 tp 700/800 pips 1.5290+. ATm its sitting at 1.4857.. I hope I didn't miss it.. {image}
So, in other words you see AUDUSD dropping much more than EURUSD dropping.
Or AUDUSD falling and Euro maintaining more or less its price.

AUDUSD actually a real nice fall today looks real good to fall so long as 0.6840 not taken..
I'm looking to short once we get a smaller tf pullback (now @ 0.6732)
Thanks for the EURAUD analysis
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