The Swamp

it dipped in the tiny well and was rejected.

It closed above since. Its still a support

A close today above 0181 is still inline with bullishness. But it may retrace some early Sunday.. 0131 is not ruled out. A close above 0191 may just continue Sunday with less chance to retrace.

Closing today above 0191 is not bullish on the week or month.. She call fall anytime. Being against 1.0xx has helped it bounce. The large pool is North.. I think that attracts it. Lions move where the herds graze. Not the other way around. You cant make the market move, only react.

waiting..

Sept Tesla... You will make that one.. Def Leopard is by you// We just missed Poison..


https://www.pearlriverresort.com/Packages/Entertainment

keep these in mind as normal.. Even it going to 0.08xx

dont worry about the trendline.. it may have another hump like the other 2.. it can reach back to 1.044x.. Probably a 250 or 350 bounce is coming. I dont know if it started. It has a decent start off a good level if this is the bounce..

CHF looks net long proven in the movement in price.

GBP has commercial building large long positions.. Thar should be more long term 6 months +..

Hedge funds are favoring shorts.. This was before todays move. Next week things could change. Some tp were taking in shorts..

EU.. It looks like hedge funds and retailers made some.. Commercials cut both sides. My question being. Are they cutting more than usual? They cut heavy on the profitable ( short) side. Just before payday. A few hundred pips means nothing to them.. 1.2 million and cutting 15k I guess that's normal.

First trade Sunday.. It looks like it closed bullish. I don't know if it will climb. But it appears it might. Expecting a strong scalp drop 1.0198x/1.0207. Stop can be10 or 20 pips. Traders preference. Tp if you like based on the stop loss. Its possible to get 2 trades. Read the next paragraph. We trade may push pa to the other.

On the reverse, If she drops before reaching 1.098x. A possible long at 1.0158/47. S/l below 1.0134. It may bounce early into touching 0158.. That bounce may be strong enough to trigger 0198. Whatever rejection happens first should push it to the other i speculate. The entry for one is the tp for the other.

Example if it runs North first, You enter short at 0198. Tp at 0158. Enter long 0158.. Tp is open because, 0198 was already hit.
Or it drops to 0158 first you enter a long. tp at 0198. Enter short, tp is open. But expect a strong move... Based on s/i. maybe 40 pips.. But I don't have one.. 50 % should be 1.015x. Early Sunday session. We have a 80 pip potential. The rejects should be violent/strong. Large candles comparably to the others. One a 5 min chart. . Or i may be wrong.

It looks to be a ping pong setup.

What can screw it it early Sunday may have a wide spread. The close today at 0783. Looks to leave enough time to place the pending trades. For entertainment purposes only. I retain the right to be full of shit. I will pend these for me.

Nice plan thanks for sharing as always Gator. I have 0270ish and 0340ish above 0198.

I have 0743/70. I think both in-between then an now I don't know what support will develop below those. I don't know how deep it will go into 0158. It may not go deep enough to clear all that minor support. I don't know if some news event will blow through those S/R. I don't know if past setups will reproduce a future reaction. I did place a reasonable number for the s/l. The 0198 one has the larger potential. It could maybe get away with a 10 pip stop, and the 40 pip tp. 1 to 4 R/R. I used the 20 pips only because the potential it may run to 0217. If both scenarios happen it depends on order.

If it rises first. The drop will have a better chance to hit 015x. and 0147. If it drops first it may hit 015x first and miss 0147. So later 0147 has a potential to bounce it in a future day. I had several to chose from in the support cluster. It already hit 0166 Friday. It bounced from there. It just didn't take out all of the support. That's why I stated 0158. Could be used as support knowing price would not touch it. If it had intentions on going higher.

I know its attracted to 0136 atm (that changes with new high, its fluid). But its also attracted to 0343. You seem to know what's there (0243).. So it may not make it to 0270 this round. Because it may fall back to the upper 0105x or maybe 0147. If it hasn't been taken out before. I'm just using support and resistance pockets of liquidity to make $. The reaction there often will repel price. Its never in stone. And with time new pockets develop. So before it would make it to 027x. It may get slapped down at 0243. I see the liquids' pool at 0243/70. That is recently developed. But I want learn before the pool was developing. Why is/did liquidity get there? What made the algos go there? On the drop before reaching 0273/025x. I posted those. I want to find a duplicable way to see what makes a pool form. Not because I need it. Just knowing where the pool is can make money. I just like tinker with shit. Why did it do that, there? Can it be known before? I think i have some of that riddle.

On the 0243 one its is 0243/70,,, but the s/l is 0276/74.. The problem being, 0276 starts another pool. The s/l falls into another pool. I hope it falls early into 0243 but below 0274. because I don't want my stop to trigger at 0276. Followed by the second pool insulting me. Slamming price down a tick later.. Ideally it will fall before 0243/70.. Drop a decent amount.. Later come back to the next pool at 0276/84, sl 0302. Then have a second drop. By then, maybe a support pool will develop. To slam it up to 0324/66. Between these more stuff develops. Its a never ending process.

Since commercials like to eat, and they have built long positions for over a year. This will turn up at some point. On the week the pools are small looking 0614/25.

So 0324/66 should fall. Then so forth. That drop at 0324/66 will make many think that's the high. It may be.. But pa likes to eat. It may want a entire meal. Eventually those commercials will eat,. I don't know where the new top will be. Med term atm 0448. Is the top to me. But why long term? Commercials were longing over a year. I think its going deeper. With 0448 as a med resistance. Getting above it may not be a big deal. Getting back above 0614 may start to be. For now looking for both opportunities. Where it goes don't matter to me. I think 0.0820 or less. But it don't matter. I will eat regardless. Since those banks are long, and have been over a year. So going back toward 1.1250 is not a big deal. It can go there or take out 1.00.. I'm just looking for 40 pips. On this beautiful morning.

I cant zoom into pa like i would like too.. These are as close As I can get, The rise from the low last week didn't have a lot of commitment with it.
I cant zoom in,, So these may be off a little. Next time at 1.0026/0.9970. Don't get in the way fighting a rise. The account you save may be your own. There will be other chances to break 1.00.. The first tap of 1.0026 may bring a large GTFO. Hot stove affect. This one is at a key spot could bounce several hundred+ pips in a relatively short period of time. It will likely be bought here by commercial and some unbalanced closing by hedge funds. Beware, the first attempt was inside this window. There is nobody holding a short here 20 years ago, waiting to break even. The only longs here are new. There is is a old algo here. The best i can get is 1.0026.. A touch of 1.0026, I'm betting, is a bad place to be short.. It could be a little lower. 1.0026 is good enough for me to long. And look for long setups within the 56 pips below it. It can bounce at 1.0026.. The most violent bounce should be in that zone. 1.0026/0.9970. 1.0026 may be all we get for many months. I got others on the chart.. Next up is near 1.00.. Its next so I will deal with it before worrying about the others.

Screw some of this.. I been working on bigger shit all day.. I'm putting my bias to sub 1.00 on hold. It looks to need a larger retrace. maybe 1/2 other last years move. A 1200 pip is not out of the question. When all this is added to the commercials buying. The EU and USD crosses should bounce. What sucks is if the USD drops. Oil may rise. Commodities' may rise even more. Putting more pressure on food, fertilizer etc. A dropping dollar may help some emerging poor countries, but its a wash with rising commodity prices. Its usually not in favor of the starving. Too much to think about.. U.S. products get cheaper. Hurting competing exporters.. Yada yada, to much unforeseen consequences. That may end in recession.

The usd may have already topped out (EU and other crosses may have bottomed out). It has on a week chart. The year chart leaves a little more room to go higher. If it goes up some. That EU chart posted earlier has a little more drop room. Once there it has a good chance to bounce. Usually that could be 1/2 of the last move. I put some week support on this chart. That is probably a tiny minimal retrace to support. The EU can still make that LL at 1.0026 ish.. Even now be careful shorting. Because a bounce can be back to 1.0343 or 1.0429 if a few days. I will not ignore EU strength. It made that hammer on Friday. That was bullish.. The same for bearish on the USD chart.

Fly EURUSD, fly...up, up, to the sky...

The usdx already hit a pool at 107.61 (week).. It hit the fib extension at 107.76 (ATM high 107.78) I have a large number At 108.09 (2 decade pool). The usdx is on steroids interest rate wise.. But this area is bigger than anything we have seen in 20 years. It should react. I don't know for sure, and neither does anyone else. If there is a place where it looks to have the potential to drop, this is it. Back to 103.59 100.66 or even 97.73 is possible. The usd is like 2x per eu pip. So if it drops to 103.59. That's 419 pips. 2X on the EU is 836 pips roughly. That's roughly 1.08xx on the eu The conception center on the modern eu is 1.0835.5. I think that's a reasonable retrace. Retrace or not, it looks like some sideways movement range minimal. The range may be divide in 2 .. Roughly 400 pip. Or 1.04xx as the mid zone. 1.08 is looking like its coming. 1.04 don't look far. She may run back to retest 1.0x , she may not. Pa is just a few pips from 1.02.. Almost 1/2 wat to 1.04 already.

1.0835 is not 1/2 of the last drop. It can go higher. 1.0835 would be on that path. 1 step at a time. I would like to see a double top on the usd, and a db on the EU. That may happen if she runs sideways.

I'm not calling a top on the usd. I'm betting its at minimal, a temp top. That may last many months. 107.78/108.09 area.

With the negative swap. I don't plan on hold these too much on close. I closed the short I had Friday before close. I regret it wasn't a big one. We may be able to play hand ball off these walls for months..

EU hitting 1.0026 and or the usdx hitting 108.09.. That reaction I'm betting will be a move. More of the "hot stove touch affect". Much quicker and stronger than Friday's usd drop . I'm betting it will retrace very little in the first 200 pips, if at all. Just long green candles on the EU (400 pips).

Week chart... looking for a swing/position trade on ea. I'm hoping to buy it 1.4770/1.4801 tp 700/800 pips 1.5290+. ATm its sitting at 1.4857.. I hope I didn't miss it..

CPI on Wednesday. I have a question about what you think they will do.

If inflation is higher than expected will they raise interest rates even faster to combat it, or will they slow down the interest rate hikes due to recession concerns?

If inflation is lower than expected, will they slow down the interest rate increases they have planned?

Just curious what you all think.

Every available metric shows we are already in a recession. The bond market, as usual, is key, and it tightened before the fed did anything and its already peaked in rates, also before the fed.
Always remember the fed is a slave to data, and the bond markets, and all that data is lagging. Whereas the market is forward looking. its still somewhat contrarian but a fed pivot seems forced on Powell, probably this summer, wether he knows it or not.
Obviously a fed pivot is bullish. They dont operate in a vacuum and we are already seeing the Fisher effect hard at work with the bankruptcy of Sri Lanka, with many other EM’s to follow. The pressure is building on the fed. With oil dropping and commodities dropping so hard its clear we are past peak inflation. This gives the fed the ability to reverse course hard as the entire global economy comes to a screeching halt.

From a trading perspective we have various models and precedent to look at. The original nifty 50(not India) in the 70’s and Japan in the late 80s come to mind. I dont like looking at the USA in the 1920s because we are vastly more leveraged than they ever were. So I expect a steep sell off in the dollar coupled with a parabolic rise in equity markets. This inevitably leads to more fed policy mistake and raising rates at precisely the wrong time(again), which might actually usher in real deflation.

So as I see it the equity markets and risk currencies might have a 3-5% downside risk compared to a 50-70% upside risk. To me, as a macro trader who holds for months or even years typically, presents an opportunity I cant pass up.