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Nov 16's US CPI

  • #61
  • Nov 16, 2006 8:30am Nov 16, 2006 8:30am
I am looking at the eur/usd

the philly report could be just enough to break some barriers, geting ready to sell, shoulb bring the gbp with it...... any thoughts?
  • #62
  • Nov 16, 2006 8:35am Nov 16, 2006 8:35am
Quoting ikimashu
lost 30 pips when CPI was given...

gain 45 pips when TIC was given...

now +5 pips bought from TIC low.....


what a day!
Hehe....I gained 25 pips from CPI and lost 40 on TIC...currently + 10 on the up.
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #63
  • Nov 16, 2006 8:35am Nov 16, 2006 8:35am
How would sharing a system ruin it for you? If you, along with several others, are making pips then what's the difference with the market being so huge?
  • #64
  • Nov 16, 2006 8:36am Nov 16, 2006 8:36am
Quoting merlin
yeah moe, we have had many on these boards who claim to predict the direction of report, but you have actually been proving it with live calls! amazing!

btw, be careful with this strategy. you have already given me enough info to design a similar system! any good system developer can pick up on little clues and then do their own testing to copy your system. and i am one of the poeople in the camp of no sharing, i think you can ruin your stategy like that. it happened to me a few years ago and i learned my lesson bigtime!

i know everyone is gunna say "SHUT UP MERLIN!" but i gotta look out for moe here!
Your right merlin. i do know this. sorry guys. i was once told by a felow trader if wal-mart told k-mart there's plans it will be wal-mart going out of business not k-mart.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #65
  • Nov 16, 2006 8:38am Nov 16, 2006 8:38am
Quoting magicfx
I am looking at the eur/usd

the philly report could be just enough to break some barriers, geting ready to sell, shoulb bring the gbp with it...... any thoughts?
yeah my system still telling me to sell gbp/usd. ain't that some shit. i still think there still room on the downside.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #66
  • Nov 16, 2006 8:39am Nov 16, 2006 8:39am
Quoting 1Sundevil
How would sharing a system ruin it for you? If you, along with several others, are making pips then what's the difference with the market being so huge?
well this is a great debate that has been going on forever. ME, i am on the side of no sharing. there are inefficiencies in the market that can only deliver a certain amount of profit. once that profit is taken from the market, the inefficiency is gone. it is not just me that thinks this, all the big traders say the same. read market wizards books, there are quite a few guys who say no sharing.

btw, this is only with mechanical/quantitative systems. a discretionary system is less likely to be ruined because everyone trades it differently. thats why you will hear me talk about my discretionary trading, but hardly ever mention my quant stuff.
Relax and be happy.
  • #67
  • Nov 16, 2006 8:40am Nov 16, 2006 8:40am
Anyone have recent Bie and Moskow speach ?
"Quality means doing it right when no one is looking"
  • #68
  • Nov 16, 2006 8:42am Nov 16, 2006 8:42am
Quoting merlin
well this is a great debate that has been going on forever. ME, i am on the side of no sharing. there are inefficiencies in the market that can only deliver a certain amount of profit. once that profit is taken from the market, the inefficiency is gone. it is not just me that thinks this, all the big traders say the same. read market wizards books, there are quite a few guys who say no sharing.

btw, this is only with mechanical/quantitative systems. a discretionary system is less likely to be ruined because everyone trades it differently. thats why you will hear me talk about my discretionary trading, but hardly ever mention my quant stuff.
Merlin your right when you say all the big traders think that way. and thats a fact.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #69
  • Nov 16, 2006 8:43am Nov 16, 2006 8:43am
Quoting merlin
once that profit is taken from the market, the inefficiency is gone. it is not just me that thinks this, all the big traders say the same. read market wizards books, there are quite a few guys who say no sharing.
I understand the big firms not sharing, as they are competing against each other with Billion$ of dollars at their disposal and can move the market themselves, but I wouldn't classify us in that vane. Unless you know that there are big firm guys on here, which is certainly possible.
  • #70
  • Nov 16, 2006 8:46am Nov 16, 2006 8:46am
oh another point about sharing...

you know how quickly good gosip spreads? well, a good system can spread even faster!

you dont know who is reading these boards, all it takes is one well connected guy to ruin this system. say he works for a hedgefund, if big enough that one hedgefund can ruin a system all on their own! depends on how much money this inefficiency is worth (which i have no idea about). if it is worth 2billion, then thats all there is to be gained, and a single hedgefund can take that out of the market.
Relax and be happy.
  • #71
  • Nov 16, 2006 8:47am Nov 16, 2006 8:47am
well there aint much stomach for an upwards movement at the monent, 15 minutes to wait, fingers crossed.

i may place an over night sell entry order at 1.2870 if it does, last night it would have netted me loads
  • #72
  • Nov 16, 2006 8:51am Nov 16, 2006 8:51am
Quoting ssotiro
+30 pips here. Nice job Moe.

Where do I send the commission cheque?
we oh talk about late. lol
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #73
  • Nov 16, 2006 8:53am Nov 16, 2006 8:53am
Quoting magicfx
well there aint much stomach for an upwards movement at the monent, 15 minutes to wait, fingers crossed.

i may place an over night sell entry order at 1.2870 if it does, last night it would have netted me loads
this sell can be an overnight thing. i think your right.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #74
  • Nov 16, 2006 8:56am Nov 16, 2006 8:56am
Quoting PipStar
What are you looking at to make that call though? I know you turned out to be right. I dont think that there is any system that can tell you before the news which way to trade. Unless you are looking at price action pointing to some traders with early knowledge of the news that were selling USD before the news came out.
no there no system that you can buy to tell you that but there's one you can create.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #75
  • Nov 16, 2006 9:01am Nov 16, 2006 9:01am
Sharing or not, I made some money today following Moe's advise(s).
For this, I'm grateful. I only wish he posts again when he has someting to say.

As for me, trading is up for the day. Thanks everyone.
  • #76
  • Nov 16, 2006 9:06am Nov 16, 2006 9:06am
i don't encourage no trader to develope a sysytem just for news trading that is the most dangerous thing a trader can do.

damn merlin you have to get a spell check buttom added.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #77
  • Nov 16, 2006 9:12am Nov 16, 2006 9:12am
i jump back in, sold gbp/usd at 1.8907 1 standard lot.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #78
  • Nov 16, 2006 9:47am Nov 16, 2006 9:47am
Just a thought as to why the CPI turned out not to be a good trade-

What's the best currency pair to trade? One where the interest rate is goin up vs. one who's rate is goin down. Conversely, the worst pairs to trade are when rates look to be goin in the same direction, either up or down together.

That's kind of what we have now. If you look at the latest reports on the B0E and ECB-they show inflation slowing a bit faster then what they thought. The US core CPI points the same way right now-the YoY core CPI went from 2.9 to 2.7-nearly a 7% drop. Yes the rate is still above the Fed's target, but it does show slowing...

So everything is kind of pointing the same way at the same time...and as seen today-not a good time to be trading spot forex...
  • #79
  • Nov 16, 2006 9:52am Nov 16, 2006 9:52am
yeah, i did too, shortly after, starting look promising,
  • #80
  • Nov 16, 2006 9:55am Nov 16, 2006 9:55am
Quoting magicfx
yeah, i did too, shortly after, starting look promising,
i think im gonna take my 16 pips profit and call it a day. i don't hold trades overnight even tho sometimes i wish i did. good day to all.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
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