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The Swamp

  • #101,941
  • Jul 1, 2022 6:04am Jul 1, 2022 6:04am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I would highlighted before if it is $1 bil// so close// FX option expiries for July 1 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0400-05 937m 1.0425 287m 1.0450 521m 1.0475-80 914m
it hit the level...lets see this can hold as support to bounce some...
  • #101,942
  • Edited 6:29am Jul 1, 2022 6:16am | Edited 6:29am
Boulder are you still fully hedged? Or are you lightening up on the way down? Fundamentally it is difficult to be long Euro but it is tempting....

My worry is that if we lose 1.03 where do we end up?
  • #101,943
  • Jul 1, 2022 6:56am Jul 1, 2022 6:56am
USDCHD opportunity is working flawlessly.
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  • #101,944
  • Jul 1, 2022 7:12am Jul 1, 2022 7:12am
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} Added 0425. Against the trends. I may regret.
Added last one 0380
Now waiting...
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #101,945
  • Jul 1, 2022 8:45am Jul 1, 2022 8:45am
think EU is going to close below 1.0359 (the previous LL).
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  • #101,946
  • Jul 1, 2022 9:10am Jul 1, 2022 9:10am
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} Added last one 0380 Now waiting...
Me too, like yesterday. If its gonna break lower.. I loose 45 pips.. Or rise with some potential to yest high. I put a tl on the bottom. The 4h closed testing a 4h support again.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,947
  • Jul 1, 2022 9:21am Jul 1, 2022 9:21am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Me too, like yesterday. If its gonna break lower.. I loose 45 pips.. Or rise with some potential to yest high. I put a tl on the bottom. The 4h closed testing a 4h support again. {image}
Oando has that yellow line at 0680.. This broker 0384. That line wont stop a b/o. It seems it would had been stronger to do it yesterday and close below. I believe its going to make new lows, and go a lot deeper. I just cant trust that it didn't do it yesterday, and close below.

"When in doubt, pull out." Is what my coach used to say. He said a bunch of other stuff. But i will save that for another time.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,948
  • Jul 1, 2022 9:31am Jul 1, 2022 9:31am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Me too, like yesterday. If its gonna break lower.. I loose 45 pips.. Or rise with some potential to yest high. I put a tl on the bottom. The 4h closed testing a 4h support again. {image}
Closed for now.. Try later or Sunday after 0390/92 ish..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,949
  • Jul 1, 2022 10:18am Jul 1, 2022 10:18am
All is bearish.. But it hasn't made the LL yet. So in that shadow of unknown. I placed a little long at 0690/84.. Thinking some push may be there st. Its bearish.. 0340 is the last spot before a LL, PA made 0384.. So I will see if it can bounce it.. It ripped up all my small bull trend. With this break of yest low, So I do need a close above 0419 to start. Just enough to get my ass handed to me. I already kissed the money good bye. So its gone. Its bearish, so the odds are, this will not end well. I deducted from the risk side by, reducing lot size. That risk % is mostly constant. A rise adds to reward side.
The 4h did make a little bit of a pin.. W/o closing lower. All is bearish.. I'm looking for any sign above 0340 for a bounce. These are normally risky reasons alone. So my ass will likely be handed to me.. My ass is on the menu.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,950
  • Jul 1, 2022 10:37am Jul 1, 2022 10:37am
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Later when Cot comes out it may trigger 0590/84.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,951
  • Edited 11:54am Jul 1, 2022 11:39am | Edited 11:54am
Quoting Steamroller
Boulder are you still fully hedged? Or are you lightening up on the way down? Fundamentally it is difficult to be long Euro but it is tempting.... My worry is that if we lose 1.03 where do we end up?
Sorry I just got back here.. yes I am partial hedged.. 8 lots longs avg around 1.0455.. 5 lots shorts . avg 1.0411.. I will flat the trades when price getting close either price .. waiitng to add more Eur shorts later.....I do have long stop loss at 1.03..
I only have 1% drawdown so far.. I am still ok////..
  • #101,952
  • Jul 1, 2022 12:46pm Jul 1, 2022 12:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Closed for now.. Try later or Sunday after 0390/92 ish.. {image}
Closed some 0429.
Will reenter again next week. I think I can long again lower. Still holding some.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #101,953
  • Jul 1, 2022 3:06pm Jul 1, 2022 3:06pm
GBP may be ready to push up..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,954
  • Jul 1, 2022 3:09pm Jul 1, 2022 3:09pm
UJ shorts were cut.. It may still rise.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,955
  • Jul 1, 2022 3:13pm Jul 1, 2022 3:13pm
EU shorts were cut
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,956
  • Jul 1, 2022 3:24pm Jul 1, 2022 3:24pm
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} Closed some 0429. Will reenter again next week. I think I can long again lower. Still holding some.
I may have FU closing. But I will try again 0390 ish.. I got the 038x light support there and a new pin on the 4h close. Cot seems to be going that direction. No new LL yada yada
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,957
  • Jul 1, 2022 4:07pm Jul 1, 2022 4:07pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I may have FU closing. But I will try again 0390 ish.. I got the 038x light support there and a new pin on the 4h close. Cot seems to be going that direction. No new LL yada yada {image} {image}
The week/day had a chance to close lower, and passed. So it has a chance to rise some.. maybe 450 pips. It didn't make that LL, but with that lower Q close. A b/o should be coming for that drop. 450 or 0 pip rise, who knows?. Bulls had the chance at 0488 and failed. R wise some minor one starting with 0488 0614 0786... Any one of these could produce a drop, The closes are getting lower. Yesterday's Q close was below 0520. Todays week close is below 0421.

All bears need is a LL. When will that be? It can dance above 0340 for months. It could drop at any moment. One day it just will not bounce. Yesterday it bounced up 100 pips.. It closed today 60 below that bounce.

Today it dropped 120ish pips, now it took back 60.. 2 steps forward, 1 step back. Next? I don't think its bullish. I longed a few times, against the risk of the low not breaking. That break is looking closer. What's sitting below 0340 (short tp making a rise) ? Does breaking 0340 trigger a lot of short tp? Does getting near 0340 trigger a bunch of shorts tp ( making longs)? The 100 move up yesterday, seems to have had some shorts tp there. It may need to clear this area before a drop. Why not screw the retailers with a sharp move up, down up a few hundred.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,958
  • Jul 1, 2022 4:17pm Jul 1, 2022 4:17pm
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Break the low.. some tp.. some add shorts.. A fast move up closes weak shorts, becoming longs. The ones who didn't tp watch the profit shrink and tp too late.. Adding to long momentum.. For good measure the hedges pump it to 1.0835.. A clean slate... Time to resume down trend..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,959
  • Jul 1, 2022 4:24pm Jul 1, 2022 4:24pm
What can you do? Not a damn thing.. Except wait for reactions at swing points.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,960
  • Jul 1, 2022 5:20pm Jul 1, 2022 5:20pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The week/day had a chance to close lower, and passed. So it has a chance to rise some.. maybe 450 pips. It didn't make that LL, but with that lower Q close. A b/o should be coming for that drop. 450 or 0 pip rise, who knows?. Bulls had the chance at 0488 and failed. R wise some minor one starting with 0488 0614 0786... Any one of these could produce a drop, The closes are getting lower. Yesterday's Q close was below 0520. Todays week close is below 0421. All bears need is a LL. When will that be? It can dance above 0340...
It closed above 0421. I know it may be typo. If it's important to you, review again.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
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