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The Swamp

  • #101,741
  • Jun 24, 2022 2:38pm Jun 24, 2022 2:38pm
6 to 1 longs closed over shorts
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,742
  • Jun 24, 2022 4:49pm Jun 24, 2022 4:49pm
Quoting gatorinla
6 to 1 longs closed over shorts {image}
I think long term shorts will flash red and green in pips over and over for a while here. Bears are thirsty for 1.0410/0350 levels to push down for a break out. Bulls are ambushed there to jump in for a big rise. Trampoline...
ECB to start raise. They may be more hawkish in coming sessions. Support is too strong. Fed is also more hawkish than expected before. 0.75 was the most raise in more than two last decades. The zone is in real bloody battle. I think finally bears will be the winner, But it will not so easy. Next week is last week of quarter. The close should be matter. I do expect more bounces after drops before crash the trampoline. But who knows? Hedge funds are aggressively turning bias to bearish, specially after FOMC 0.75 raise last tow weeks. They're in right way most of the time. Fed is aggressively raising, while ECB is about to start not as hawkish as fed. So chance for a deep fall is more than a big bounce. Technically I have 0410 and 0699/0716 to be touched. Let's see how month and quarter will close. I will trade only small lots next week. I think it will be very volatile next week. So be careful of trade big lots. Better to stay away from any long and shorts next week.
Stay safe.
Have a good weekend.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #101,743
  • Jun 24, 2022 5:44pm Jun 24, 2022 5:44pm
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} I think long term shorts will flash red and green in pips over and over for a while here. Bears are thirsty for 1.0410/0350 levels to push down for a break out. Bulls are ambushed there to jump in for a big rise. Trampoline... ECB to start raise. They may be more hawkish in coming sessions. Support is too strong. Fed is also more hawkish than expected before. 0.75 was the most raise in more than two last decades. The zone is in real bloody battle. I think finally bears will be the winner, But it will not so easy. Next week is last week of...
It looks like the commercials are hedging a weaker euro. 5.6 x 1.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,744
  • Jun 25, 2022 12:09am Jun 25, 2022 12:09am
Week close bullish engulfed the previous. A higher low. It has a good chance to hit 0627/42. I cant say for sure with the multi decade low support. I cant say 0627 area will hold. There is some R 0615/27/42. It can go higher, it can go to 0835+. But 0627 area is sitting there. Sometimes in a trend this is all you get. Looking at the HL, and bullish candle. I will look if it can make it there. A little gun shy here. Some R at 0568 and 0594. 8h trend R is still at 0583. Its hard to get a perfect entry. And if you get one. Its passing in R. You don't know if its going to stop, Hopefully this Q close can clear some of this up. This leg is a HL from 2017. Bears need to break 0340. A close below 0421 or 0340 would be the best indicator bears could get. Things are usually not that easy. The location in the 0527 area sometimes rejects to a new leg down.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,745
  • Jun 25, 2022 1:33pm Jun 25, 2022 1:33pm
Quoting gatorinla
Week close bullish engulfed the previous. A higher low. It has a good chance to hit 0627/42. I cant say for sure with the multi decade low support. I cant say 0627 area will hold. There is some R 0615/27/42. It can go higher, it can go to 0835+. But 0627 area is sitting there. Sometimes in a trend this is all you get. Looking at the HL, and bullish candle. I will look if it can make it there. A little gun shy here. Some R at 0568 and 0594. 8h trend R is still at 0583. Its hard to get a perfect entry. And if you get one. Its passing in R. You don't...
Next week will be the Q, and mid year end. I don't know if it can make a LL. I don't know if it can close below 0421. I'm expecting some whipsaw action, over little movement. ATM most time frames at the decade support can be wrong. The week and month can be wrong. Bears have no choice but to break and close bear levels. Or bulls will come to take the bears money. If the bears can not make the lower closes, and the lower lows. It will probably go up. If it retest near 0445 and is unable to close below. I think for the month Q etc to have a undeniable bias to short. The June close needs to be below 0421. It also needs the LL, -0340. If not, It may be going up. to 0605 0627 0748 0786 + 0835. These are R. It could go above these too. The last few months has been about raising interest rates. Now the possible recession influence will weigh in. i personally think that hurts both. But what one will hurt more? I think that discretionary spending. (I think discretionary reduction hurts EZ more) But there is always unforeseen affects. Those can change things. I always take energy into the equation, that favors the usd over the eu. Even so the pangolin will swing both ways. It will have a chance to swing off the support, if bears don't take it. How high? The last big level was 0835. It can correct higher. That 0786 level and those others are in the way.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,746
  • Jun 26, 2022 4:42pm Jun 26, 2022 4:42pm
Bear wise hedge funds have the balance to the downside. Its not a overwhelming number. Price is 200 pips above a LL. Price can whipsaw in either direction. Since Cot favors a drop. Some small areas that may see some action at 0494/95, 0447, 0370. One cant rule out the LL. If bears cant do that. A close below 0421 even w/o the LL would enhance the chances. A st 2x move could favor 0323. That is a new decade low. But if its don't close below 0421 I think it will bounce. It may have to try again in the next months. Its hard to break that LL. It may take many months of trying. So if it can not break it, and hold below 0421. It will likely bounce. Some mid term R at 0627/42 needs a close above for bulls. So does 0786. Some extension to 0686 or 0835. The last 2 points (June) I'm looking at have a slightly HH and a HL. Cot may be enough to drag it into that demand zone. The trend for a year is lower. It has to continue making that LL. 4 days to do it. If it cant 0835.5 R may be tested.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,747
  • Jun 26, 2022 5:32pm Jun 26, 2022 5:32pm
looking for a short anytime now. But it may be 0580 -close. Anytime as long as closing below 0580 and 83.. tp 100 or mid 045x0 After a drop, I may set up buys for a LL miss and July rise.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,748
  • Jun 26, 2022 5:39pm Jun 26, 2022 5:39pm
just in case Eur bulls push higher, keep in mind Eur day down trend stops sit at 1.0792 per system I and 1.0739 per systme II as of today. of course those trend stops will move down each day if Eur price goes up
It will be very hard for bulls to reverse the day trend. For bears , that would be max pain if you plan the shorts on the way up
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  • #101,749
  • Jun 26, 2022 5:42pm Jun 26, 2022 5:42pm
Quoting gatorinla
looking for a short anytime now. But it may be 0580 -close. Anytime as long as closing below 0580 and 83.. tp 100 or mid 045x0 After a drop, I may set up buys for a LL miss and July rise. {image}
I don't like to trade Asian session, I am going to wait ..
  • #101,750
  • Jun 26, 2022 5:46pm Jun 26, 2022 5:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
looking for a short anytime now. But it may be 0580 -close. Anytime as long as closing below 0580 and 83.. tp 100 or mid 045x0 After a drop, I may set up buys for a LL miss and July rise. {image}
I changed my mine,, I shorted one here 1.0561.. let's see ..
  • #101,751
  • Jun 26, 2022 7:40pm Jun 26, 2022 7:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
looking for a short anytime now. But it may be 0580 -close. Anytime as long as closing below 0580 and 83.. tp 100 or mid 045x0 After a drop, I may set up buys for a LL miss and July rise. {image}
My 4h sits at 0566.. Its been above and looking bullish. Now lets see if it rejected on the next h close. Or will it test 0580/83 close R anywhere in this area now. 055x/0615. Looking for weakness. But not because of techs.. Because of COT, at tech R. All my trades this week will be smaller lots than normal. These can tp below 0500... I set pending tiny longs on a drop below 0500.. If i lose 1% I will wait to trade July. ( i think). I anticipate a drop, followed by a rise. If it makes a new low below 0339. Than its time to re think. I do have it going lower. But this may not be this month. If its not, I may be able to get new shorts 0835/ or maybe 09xx/1.1. It didn't make a new low after FOMC. It should have. Something is going on here. The med term trend to me looks to rise. But it has room to fall to below 0500/0450. If it does I look for bears getting weak for a bounce. Atm this does look bullish.. Need some signs to short.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,752
  • Jun 26, 2022 7:51pm Jun 26, 2022 7:51pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I changed my mine,, I shorted one here 1.0561.. let's see ..
flat the shorts.. made some..
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  • #101,753
  • Jun 26, 2022 8:08pm Jun 26, 2022 8:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} My 4h sits at 0566.. Its been above and looking bullish. Now lets see if it rejected on the next h close. Or will it test 0580/83 close R anywhere in this area now. 055x/0615. Looking for weakness. But not because of techs.. Because of COT, at tech R. All my trades this week will be smaller lots than normal. These can tp below 0500... I set pending tiny longs on a drop below 0500.. If i lose 1% I will wait to trade July. ( i think). I anticipate a drop, followed by a rise. If it makes a new low below 0339. Than its time to re think. I do...
EU 1h may be turning. the 4h did close below that R. !h has engulfed with a ref candle. She may have topped now.. But your indicator trends may still be giving bullish signals.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,754
  • Jun 26, 2022 8:40pm Jun 26, 2022 8:40pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} flat the shorts.. made some.. {image}
Your turn to buy breakfast.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,755
  • Jun 26, 2022 9:21pm Jun 26, 2022 9:21pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Your turn to buy breakfast.
will do...
My time for bed... talk to you here in the morning...
  • #101,756
  • Jun 26, 2022 10:52pm Jun 26, 2022 10:52pm
GBP/Cad shooting for 500/800 pips, Not trading much usd.. Looking for chf/yen to top and make big pips on a fall.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,757
  • Jun 27, 2022 4:19am Jun 27, 2022 4:19am
Just woke up, I started to short some here 1.0585
  • #101,758
  • Jun 27, 2022 4:21am Jun 27, 2022 4:21am
fyi
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  • #101,759
  • Jun 27, 2022 4:28am Jun 27, 2022 4:28am
Quoting Boulder
Just woke up, I started to short some here 1.0585
just a quick scalp
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  • #101,760
  • Jun 27, 2022 4:32am Jun 27, 2022 4:32am
Quoting saninvestor
I was hoping not to trade more today. But that bounce to 0571 made me to take a short 0566. Tp 0527 {image}
Closed 0576 with 10 pips loss. It closed 12h above 0571. It may continue to rise some. This week is Q end.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
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