Nov 16's US CPI

CPI
Previous: -0.5%
Estimate: -0.3%

Core CPI
Previous: 0.2%
Estimate: 0.2%

What do you think will the number be?

Its been 4 months since the last US Rate Hike. THAT is already a long time ago and the effect should have withered down already.

I am guessing that it will come out 0.2~0.3%

Is transportation part of CPI? I heard Car Sales is dropping..

CPI should be important today. It will decide "WHEN" FED will start dropping rates.. Expectation was to drop rates as early as Q1, but if CPI is still "elevated", rate cut may occur as late as June 2007 (a year after the last rate hike).

Umm... I was wondering; is there a correlation between PPI and CPI? Last Tuesday PPI was WAY lower than expectation YET USD managed to gain 300 pips vs GBP this week (USD Love Week?)

I agree with you Burger King. The figure it should be 0.3% or better

I think so too. I'm thinking of sorting GBP/USD for the second time today.
Am I the only one?

i don't know what the number gonna be but so far my system got me loading up on gbp/usd with a sell. now this could change at 8:25am when i check my system again, il keep you posted.

my system is a price action system.

So what is important here - Core CPI or CPI?

I would say buy GBP/USD if core CPI < 0.2 and Sell GBHP/USD is core CPI > 0.2

But then if Core CPI is 0.2, the movement of GBP/USD will be dictated by CPI, and how far that is away from consensus.

I hate multi-release data.

Think most likely it is a big move...

I am looking for this CPI to be pivotal. I like a good move with some follow through.

yes there is. if manufacturers are paying more for goods (ie high PPI) then they will pass on those price increases to the consumer by raising the price of the goods they sell (ie higher CPI). it also works in reverse with price drops. so in general, PPI is a leading indicator of CPI.

Who thinks alot of the market moving money might wait for the CPI and TIC to be reported to enter the market?

thats certainly a possibility. i would say the chances are small though...even though TIC is an important report, CPI is like THE most important. kinda hard to overshadow something this big.

Interesting!
If that is the case, PPI has been dropping.
Perhaps, Today's CPI is 0.2% or lower!


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Historic Chart shows that CPI, though a big time mover is very prone to whipsaws.... straddle will need a larger stops to prevent it from getting whipped. I;d do a small trade on this one - though very profitable for the week, I'd rather not loose a lot of it to "greed"..

Yes well even after that we have the PHILLY remember they have been wonderful last 3 months, could be waiting for that as well, wonder what the CPI is going to bring with all those after it, usually when US has 3 reports in one day dont see much till last report right?

oh btw, regarding the TIC, with the US stock market doing so good im expecting that lots of foreigners are buying dollars right now to get a piece of the equities action...

thinking more on this...with industrial production and cap-ute coming out at 9:15, combined with TIC at 9:00, this could overshadow CPI a bit. hmm...

Bloomberg just interviewed a floor trader that said. today's CPI is an equities "buy" signal either way. Wish it was that simple for the dollar.

Remember china selling the dollar

That is where I am at. My aggressive stance from when I woke up has turned cautious.

Why would foregners buy the dollar when Chinas 70% reserves may start to sell off there dollars the market obviosly believes them hence that 100 pip loss against the dollar when they said thata week or so ago?

there are many reasons to buy, and many reasons to sell the dollar. but TIC is specifically about investment in US. and to invest in the US, you need to convert your money to dollars. that is why TIC is important indicator. one of the best reasons to invest in US is because of stock market, which is doing really good presently.

Commerzbank Daily Currency Report:


The EUR view:

The fact that US Oct retail sales suffered as gasoline
takings slipped for the second month in a row should not surprise.

was unexpected was the spendthrift US consumer did not continue

splurge what he saved. Last month markets were left with the impression

that while headline sales eased, core retail sales (ex-auto and gasoline)

rose at a healthy +0.8% clip in Sept. That core reading was revised

just +0.3%, while the headline numbers were also marked down further

into negative territory. One factor behind the lower revisions was a

in building materials, which at -0.7% and -1.8% in Aug and Sept together

with another -0.3% decline in Oct, underlines the weaker state of

housing market. Collectively, the data imply Q3 GDP was even weaker

than initially reported, while Q4 has gotton off to a shaky start. It would

seem that the US savings rate is starting to rise. While there is a broader

story that suggests weaker domestic demand won’t help economies

as Japan, where exports and capex are the drivers, the mix of the slide

US retail sales and softer core PPI is not USD supportive in the

instance. Taken together with a messge from tonight’s FOMC minutes

that inflation will ease in time given the economic slowdown and the

ought to remain on the backfoot. The outside risk is the shift towards

further discounting of a US rate cut seen in light of Tuesday’s data

run into expected hawkish rhetoric from some Fed members and

USD gets a very small lift. We see a 1.2780-1.2880 range for now..