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DAX 30 - Murrey analysis
DAX 30 has been correction downwards over the past two weeks. During this time, the price moved into the negative zone of Murrey's trading range and reached the lower pivot level 13125 ([2/8]) but the quotes failed to consolidate below it. If successful, the decline will continue up to 12500 ([0/8]) and 12187.5 ([–1/8]). In general, the downward trend in the market continues, which confirms the downward reversal of Bollinger bands and the increase in the MACD histogram in the negative zone. The expected exit of Stochastic from the oversold zone may signal the beginning of an upward correction to 13437.5 ([3/8]), 13750.0 but this is unlikely to lead to a reversal of the current trend, and the continued decline of the asset soon remains a more likely scenario.

Resistance levels: 13437, 13750 | Support levels: 13125, 12500, 12187

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EURUSD - The pair may fall.

If the assumption is correct, the EUR USD pair will fall to the levels of 1.0300 – 1.0200. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0622.

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Crude Oil: prices are recovering after a sharp decline last week
Quotations are supported by data indicating growing imports of oil and oil products from China. According to the report of the General Administration of Customs of China, "black gold" from Russia is sent to the country both by sea and through the Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean pipeline. In May, deliveries reached 1.98 million barrels per day, which was a record value, exceeding the April figure by a quarter, while for liquefied gas this figure was fixed at around 400 thousand tons, adding 56% compared to May 2021. Analysts note that the discount policy adopted by Russian officials against the backdrop of sanctions imposed after the start of the military conflict in Ukraine contributes to the increase in imports.

Investors expect that the recovery of the Chinese economy will contribute to a further increase in demand for petroleum products, which will support prices at current levels or contribute to their growth. In turn, fears about possible interruptions in Russian supplies to Western countries still persist. By the end of this year, the EU intends to significantly reduce the volume of imports of oil from the Russian Federation, and then to find alternative sources altogether.

In the near future, investors expect the publication of statistics from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on the dynamics of "black gold" reserves for the week ended June 17. The previous report showed a weak increase of 0.736 million barrels, which, however, put additional pressure on the quotes. Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is expanding, while remaining spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). In addition, the indicator is testing the zero level for a breakdown. Stochastic, having approached the level of "20", reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating the growing risks of oversold instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 114.09, 116, 120, 123.24 | Support levels: 112, 109, 106, 102.57

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GBPUSD - The pair may fall.

If the assumption is correct, the GBP USD pair will fall within the wave (v) of v to the levels of 1.175 – 1.155. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2412.

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Nvidia - The price may fall

If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 100 – 50. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 196.


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USDJPY - The probability of a downward correction remains

The USD JPY pair is trading around 135.11. The asset failed to break the resistance level of 135.5, which suggests the development of a downward correction. Last Friday, the Bank of Japan decided to leave interest rates unchanged at –0.10%. Earlier, representatives of the regulator have repeatedly announced their intention to adhere to the course of ultra-soft monetary policy to increase household spending and stabilize the labor market. Now the focus of investors is on the minutes of the meeting on the monetary policy of the central bank, which will be published on Wednesday. Considering the latest changes, inflation in Japan was 2.5% YoY, and the base indicator reached 2.1%, which is above the target level of 2.0%. Traders want to know how long the current approach to monetary policy will last and when to expect a move to tighten.

As for the US dollar, the likelihood of its appreciation remains against the backdrop of the policy pursued by the US Federal Reserve. On Friday, the department's chairman, Jerome Powell, reaffirmed his determination to contain inflation, which peaked in the last 40 years, and declared his readiness to continue adjusting interest rates further.

After the technical correction, the next target for the USD JPY pair quotes will be 139 and 141. The long-term trend is upwards. Now the price is trading below the resistance level of 135.5, which implies the possibility of opening short positions with the target at 131.4 but in case of its breakout, the positive dynamics will continue to 139.

The medium-term trend remains upwards. Last week, traders unsuccessfully tested the key trend support 131.63–131.29, as a result of which an increase in the number of open long positions was recorded, the target of which is to renew the high of the last week and then move to zone 3 (137.09–136.72).

Resistance levels: 135.5, 139, 141 | Support levels: 131.4, 126.5, 124.08


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USD CAD - The pair may grow

If the assumption is correct, the USD CAD pair will grow to the levels of 1.3410–1.3700. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2507.

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AUD USD - Technical analysis

H4
On the four-hour chart above the level of 0.6901 there is a "bullish" Engulfing Pattern, which signals a price reversal at the bottom, as well as a Bullish Belt Hold pattern, explaining that the buyers attempted to counterattack, but the "bears" seized the initiative, which became a driver for the decline in instrument quotes. At the moment, the most likely scenario is with an uptrend from the support level of 0.6841 to the resistance area of 0.7048, overcoming which will allow the "bulls" to move higher into the range of 0.7270–0.7581. An alternative scenario may be relevant if the buyers fail to hold the support level of 0.6841: then the price may fall down to the level of 0.6539. D1
On the daily chart, there is a formation of a Double Bottom price pattern. An additional signal for a reversal may be the formation of a large Bullish Candle above the support level of 0.6841, which is also a Bullish Belt Hold pattern. Next is the formation of another Bullish Belt Hold pattern, which is similar to the Piercing Pattern of the reversal at the bottom. In the current situation, it is possible to retest the level of 0.6841, from where the instrument may bounce to the resistance level of 0.7048, with its subsequent overcoming and the price recovering to the zone of 0.7270–0.7581. Support levels: 0.6841, 0.6693, 0.6539 | Resistance levels: 0.7048, 0.7270, 0.7581

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XAU USD - Metal quotes are developing a downward trend
Investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions ahead of the publication of inflation statistics from the UK, as well as the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who, as analysts hope, will outline the immediate prospects for monetary policy. So, some agency representatives said they were not opposed to another rate hike by 75 basis points, and a more conservative position still suggests an increase of only 50 basis points, after which a pause will be required to assess the measures taken.

Quotes of gold, traditionally protective assets, are supported by growing fears about a slowdown in the global economy. Also, the geopolitical risks associated with the development of a military conflict in Ukraine are not weakening yet, while the countries of the world are forced to deal with the consequences of a sharp increase in energy prices. Analysts are confident that rapid inflation on a global scale and a slowdown in economic growth can catalyze stagflation in the US economy, and the US Federal Reserve's measures to tighten monetary policy will be insufficient. It, in turn, will allow gold to regain investor interest and overcome the level of 2000.
An additional negative factor for the metal is the increase in the yield of US Treasury bonds amid expectations of further actions by the American regulator. As new signals for the asset, there is the talk about a possible restriction of Russian gold imports by European countries in the next sanctions packages from the EU. In particular, Denmark has previously announced such a possibility. Resistance levels: 1843.37, 1857.27, 1869.49, 1878.84 | Support levels: 1823.09, 1800, 1775, 1752.87

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USD CHF - The pair may grow

If the assumption is correct, the USD CHF pair will grow to the levels of 1.02 – 1.035. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9549.

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NZD USD - New Zealand dollar remains under pressure
The New Zealand dollar is actively falling during morning trading, testing the level of 0.6265 for a breakdown. NZD USD is updating local lows from June 16, reacting to the recovery in demand for the "safe" US dollar, as well as to the aggravation of the geopolitical situation after the Lithuanian authorities announced restrictions on the transit of Russian goods to the territory of Kaliningrad.

Additional pressure on the positions of the trading instrument was exerted by rather weak macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand. Westpac Consumer Survey in Q2 2022 fell from 92.1 to 78.7 points, while analysts expected it to rise to 100 points. Global Dairy Trade index declined 1.3% after gaining 1.5% in the prior period, with only a 0.1% downward correction forecast. The volume of Exports from New Zealand in May rose from 6.16 billion to 6.95 billion dollars; however, against the backdrop of an increase in imports from 5.72 billion to 6.69 billion dollars, the trade deficit in May only increased from –9.29 billion to –9.52 billion dollars. Resistance levels: 0.63, 0.635, 0.64, 0.645 | Support levels: 0.6244, 0.62, 0.6156, 0.61

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GBP USD - rising inflation in the UK puts pressure on the pound
This week, the GBP USD pair attempted to grow, having risen to the area of 1.2323, but today it has lost its position due to the release of negative UK macroeconomic statistics.

The May CPI was 0.7% MoM, slightly higher than the forecast (0.6%), and reached 9.1% YoY, which is a forty-year high. Fuel and food prices increased the most, while the population's purchasing power is declining. Last week, the Bank of England raised interest rates for the fifth time in a row, bringing them to 1.25% but so far, these actions have not had the desired effect. Inflation is increasing and, according to experts, by November, it will be able to exceed 11%, while the tightening of monetary policy increases the risks of a recession.

Under these conditions, the US currency looks more attractive, although the economic downturn due to the “hawkish” monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve also threatens this country. Today, the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, will address the US Congress with a semi-annual report in which he can outline his vision of the immediate economic prospects and further actions of the department. Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2695, 1.2940 | Support levels: 1.2207, 1.1962, 1.1718

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XRP USD - Murrey analysis
The XRP USD pair is moving within a wide downward channel but has been consolidating around 0.3200 for the second week already and, unlike other leading cryptocurrencies, has not yet been able to recover significantly.

The long-term downtrend continues, but for further decline, quotes will need to break through the zone of 0.3200–0.2930. After that, the price will open the way to 0.1953 (Murrey [2/8]) and 0.0977 (Murrey [1/8], the lower border of the downwards channel). The key "bullish" level is 0.3906 (Murrey [4/8]), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of prices recovering to 0.4883 (Murrey [5/8]), 0.5859 (Murrey [6/8]). Technical indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger bands are directed downwards, the MACD histogram decreases in the negative zone, and Stochastic is directed upwards.

Resistance levels: 0.3906, 0.4883, 0.5859 | Support levels: 0.2930, 0.1953, 0.0977

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AUD USD - The pair may fall

If the assumption is correct, the AUD USD pair will fall to the levels of 0.6446–0.6082. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7067.

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GBPUSD - UK inflation hits 40-year high
The British pound is trading with multidirectional dynamics against the US currency, consolidating near the level of 1.2260. The day before, GBP/USD also closed with a minimal deviation from the opening levels of the daily session.

Investors are evaluating macroeconomic data from the Office for National Statistics, released yesterday, which reflected an increase in consumer price growth in May: the figure reached 9.1%, which is a record since 1982. The negative dynamics is due to the rapid increase in tariffs for electricity and raw materials in general, which have set a high since 1985, adding 22.1% to the cost against the background of the escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, the monthly inflation rate slowed down from 2.5% to 0.7%, and the Core CPI for the same period decreased from 6.2% to 5.9%, which turned out to be even slightly better than market forecasts of a reduction to 6.0%. In turn, the Retail Price Index in May showed an increase of 11.7%, accelerating from 11.1%, while the forecasts suggested an increase of only up to 11.4%; on a monthly basis, the indicator slowed down from 3.4% to 0.7%, while the market expected a decline to 0.5%. At the same time, according to officials of the Bank of England, consumer price growth may reach 11% by October, exacerbating the crisis in the cost of living for British families. An increase in the interest rate for the fifth time in a row to 1.25% has not yet had the desired effect on the economy, only increasing the risks of a recession. In turn, inflation, taking into account the costs of homeowners for housing maintenance, increased to 7.9% from 7.8% a month earlier. Today, investors are waiting for the publication of statistics on business activity from S&P Global for June. Forecasts suggest that Manufacturing PMI will show a decrease from 54.6 to 53.7 points.

Resistance levels: 1.2328, 1.2400, 1.2457, 1.25 | Support levels: 1.2250, 1.2163, 1.2074, 1.2

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Nikkei 225 - technical analysis

H4
On the four-hour chart above the level of 26581.0, there is the formation of the Three Black Crows candlestick analysis pattern, which signals the continuation of the downtrend. Following the quotes, the successive Gravestone Doji patterns formed, which usually appear at the top and are a signal for a price reversal. In the current situation, it is likely that the asset will decline to the support level of 25796, overcoming which will allow the "bears" to reduce the price to the range of 24575–23596. An alternative scenario is possible in case of an impulsive movement of quotes above the resistance level of 26865.0. Then the "bulls" will be able to reverse the situation on the market and start an uptrend in the area of 28263 – 30008. D1
On the daily chart, there is a Bear Flag price pattern, the construction of which started from the resistance at 28263; however, after reaching the support level of 25796, the "bulls" regained part of the lost positions, reaching the area of 26581.0. However, a warning signal for a price reversal is the formation of a Hanging Man candlestick analysis pattern, which indicates that buyers have lost control over the market. In this situation, most likely, the quotes will continue to decline to the level of 25796, the overcoming of which will serve as a signal for a further downtrend to the level of 23596.


Support levels: 25796, 24575, 23596 | Resistance levels: 26865, 28263, 30008

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USD TRY - The lira consolidates near record lows
Experts believe that the rapid weakening of the lira is the result of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's intervention in monetary policy, who insists on lowering interest rates even in the face of rapid inflation, which reached 73.5% in May. So, at the end of 2021, the rate was corrected from 19% to 14%, and, according to the country's leader, this policy will continue soon. It is a powerful driver of the decline of the national currency, the rate of which at the beginning of the week reached the December minimum around 17.3600. Today, the Central Bank of Turkey will announce a decision on the weekly repo auction rate, which has not changed since December 2021. The prospects for monetary policy remain uncertain: it is obvious that a sharp increase in the interest rate should not be expected, while the current measures to combat rising inflation are not enough. Also, rapidly declining foreign exchange reserves are putting pressure on the authorities: last week, they adjusted by 1B dollars and now stand at 7B dollars, forcing the authorities to swap with Saudi Arabia. Yesterday, at the opening of the daytime session, the US dollar showed an active decline but then quickly regained all lost ground with the support of the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, in the national Congress, which confirmed the regulator's commitment to the course of further tightening of monetary policy. At the same time, the official did not touch upon the topic of a possible economic recession, which still serves as a strong deterrent for the national currency.

Resistance levels: 17.4, 17.6, 17.75 | Support levels: 17.1, 17, 16.75, 16.6

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NZDUSD - The pair may fall.

If the assumption is correct, the NZD USD pair will fall to the levels of 0.606 – 0.591. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.639.
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XAU USD - The pair may grow.

If the assumption is correct, the XAU USD pair will grow to the levels of 2000 – 2070.42. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1803.62.

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Crude Oil - prices retreated to new local lows
The trading instrument is under pressure from the rhetoric of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who, during a speech in the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, announced the continuation of the "hawkish" course of the regulator regarding the adjustment of interest rates to combat record inflation. At the same time, experts are worried that too sharp tightening could provoke a recession in the national economy. In June, the department decided to raise the rate by 75 basis points, and now analysts are trying to predict how the rate will change during the July meeting. A similar situation is developing in other countries: thus, this month, the Bank of England raised the rate for the fifth time.

Cecilia Rose, chairman of the council of advisers to the head of the White House on economics, noted that the decline in prices for "black gold" could be triggered by increased supplies of Russian energy resources to China and India against the backdrop of the discount policy he presented. In particular, China increased imports by 55% YoY, about 2M barrels per day.

The dynamics of the asset slowed down after the publication of data on stocks of raw materials in the US. Thus, the report released on Wednesday from the American Petroleum Institute (API) reflected a sharp increase in the index for the week of June 17 by 5.607M barrels after an increase of 0.736M barrels over the previous period. The final statistics from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) have not yet been released due to technical problems. On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are steadily declining: the price range is expanding, letting the "bears" renew local lows. MACD falls, keeping a fairly strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic reverses into a horizontal plane near 20, signaling that the instrument may become oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 105, 107.67, 110, 113.13 | Support levels: 103, 101.09, 100, 98