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NZDUSD, the pair may fall.
On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) of B formed, and a downward correction develops as the wave (B) of B, within which the wave C of (B) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C has formed, the correctional wave iv of C has developed, and the fifth wave v of C is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the NZD USD pair will fall to the levels of 0.606 – 0.591. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6426.

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A bull market is the condition of a financial market in which prices are rising or are expected to rise. The term "bull market" is most often used to refer to the stock market but can be applied to anything that is traded, such as bonds, real estate, currencies, and commodities.

Because prices of securities rise and fall essentially continuously during trading, the term "bull market" is typically reserved for extended periods in which a large portion of security prices are rising. Bull markets tend to last for months or even years.

1. A bull market is a period of time in financial markets when the price of an asset or security rises continuously.
2. The commonly accepted definition of a bull market is when stock prices rise by 20% after two declines of 20% each.
3. Traders employ a variety of strategies, such as increased buy and hold and retracement, to profit off bull markets.

Understanding Bull Markets
Bull markets are characterized by optimism, investor confidence, and expectations that strong results should continue for an extended period of time. It is difficult to predict consistently when the trends in the market might change. Part of the difficulty is that psychological effects and speculation may sometimes play a large role in the markets.

There is no specific and universal metric used to identify a bull market. Nonetheless, perhaps the most common definition of a bull market is a situation in which stock prices rise by 20%, usually after a drop of 20% and before a second 20% decline. Since bull markets are difficult to predict, analysts can typically only recognize this phenomenon after it has happened. A notable bull market in recent history was the period between 2003 and 2007. During this time, the S&P 500 increased by a significant margin after a previous decline; as the 2008 financial crisis took effect, major declines occurred again after the bull market run.

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Tesla, technical analysis
On the daily chart, the price is within the global Expanding formation pattern, gradually approaching the support line around 550. At the moment, the formation of the fifth downward wave is observed, which has reached the basic trend of 100.0% of the Fibonacci extension around 628. On a four-hour chart, the local dynamics close within the Triangle pattern with dynamic boundaries of 746 – 628, the location of which confirms the further development of negative dynamics. Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator continues to move away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms bars with a downward trend in the sell zone.

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USD CAD, the pair may grow.
On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of 5 forms, within which the wave 3 of (1) develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 is forming, within which the wave (i) of iii has formed, a local correction has developed as the wave (ii) of iii, and the wave (iii) of iii is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the USD CAD pair will grow to the levels of 1.341 – 1.37. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2507.


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Crude Oil, prices for "black gold" are slightly reduced
During the Asian session, Brent Crude Oil prices are traded in different directions, consolidating near 117.00. Yesterday, the instrument moderately declined in response to the publication of macroeconomic statistics on energy reserves, which slightly eased experts' fears regarding oil supply on the market.

In particular, the International Energy Agency (IEA) report indicated an increase in commercial oil reserves worldwide by 77M barrels in April compared to March. The positive dynamics were confirmed by the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) statistics: as of June 10, the indicator rose by 2M barrels, while analysts expected it to decrease by 1.3M barrels. The overall level of oil production in the United States also increased by 100K barrels per day to a combined level of 12M barrels per day. The OPEC report reflects that demand from market participants remained around 3.4M barrels per day, amounting to 100.3M barrels per day. The cartel is confident that the resumption of scheduled air travel after the coronavirus pandemic and the elimination of disruptions in supply chains will maintain positive momentum.

In turn, quotes continue to be supported by the prospect of a decrease in oil supply on the market with a moderate increase in consumption. Thus, the export of resources from the Russian Federation is currently difficult since Western countries are actively introducing new blocking sanctions against the Russian economy in response to a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine. Analysts note that the decline in the production of raw materials in Russia will be compensated by the growth in production in the Middle East and the United States, but only partially. On the daily chart, Bollinger bands reverse into a horizontal plane: the price range remains practically unchanged, reflecting the flat nature of trading in the short term. The MACD indicator is falling, keeping a strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics, approaching its lows and indicating that the instrument may become oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 120, 123.24, 125.85, 128.6 | Support levels: 116, 114.09, 112, 109

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XAU USD, demand for gold remains low
XAU USD is correcting sideways, trading at 1830 and showing no signs of a trend reversal. Gold quotes are in a rather narrow range of 1800 – 1880, having shown a slight increase the day before after the decision of the US Federal Reserve to raise the interest rate from 1.00% to 1.75%, which indicates the market's inability to calculate the consequences of the actions of the American regulator.

In any case, even a local increase in quotes does not mean a global change in trend, which remains negative. This clearly demonstrates the ratio of the positions of sellers and buyers on the stock exchange. According to the latest report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the balance of contracts continues to remain on the side of sellers and, based on current positions, they hold 71.880K contracts, while buyers retain 23.852K contracts. There is a significantly larger gap in the positions of swap dealers: 83.939K contracts were registered for purchase, and 245.231K for sale. In the previous week, however, the dynamics of the change in the balance was in favor of buyers: they liquidated 3.376K positions, while sellers reduced 4.580K positions. Neither side is building up its assets, suggesting low overall demand for the metal. On the daily chart of the asset, the price is trading within the local side channel, holding in the middle of the range. Technical indicators are in a quite strong sell signal state: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the sell zone, forming descending bars.

Support levels: 1807, 1752 | Resistance levels: 1848, 1895

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Crude Oil - The price may fall
If the assumption is correct, Brent Crude Oil price will fall within the wave c of 2 to the levels of 77.08 – 62.50. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 139.53.


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Gold - The pair may grow

If the assumption is correct, the XAU USD pair will grow to the levels of 2000 – 2070.42. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1803.62.


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EUR USD, investors expect inflation data in the EU
The European currency is trading with a slight slowdown after yesterday's strong growth, caused by investors' reaction to the wage increase in the EU in the first quarter by 2.70% from 1.50%, but today's data will have a key impact on the dynamics of the instrument. In the middle of the day, Eurostat will publish May's CPI, which estimates inflation, and the monthly increase could be 0.8% against the 0.6% shown in April, and the growth will remain around 8.1% YoY. As for the core consumer price index, which does not consider food and fuel prices, analysts do not expect positive dynamics and expect the value to remain at the April level of 3.8%.

After three days of being near the year's highs, around 105 in the USD Index, Quotes of the American currency reversed downwards and rolled back to 104 against the backdrop of disappointing data on the US labor market. Initial Jobless Claims amounted to 229K, which exceeds the quoted market expectations of 215K, and the total number of citizens receiving payments from the state consolidated at 1.312M compared to 1.309M last week. Investors drew attention to a significant decrease in the index of manufacturing activity from the Philadelphia Fed in June to –3.3 points from 2.6 points in May. The trading instrument moves within a narrow downward channel, approaching the support line. Technical indicators maintain a global sell signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram has formed another down bar in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.0630, 1.0778 | Support levels: 1.0377, 1.0151

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AUD USD, the uptrend is possible
AUD USD continues its uncertain corrective dynamics, trading at 0.6997 after the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published labor market data in May. According to the report, the Unemployment Rate remained at 3.9% for the third consecutive month, signaling a slowdown in labor force growth. Despite this, Employment Change in the country increased by 60.6K to 13.510M people, and the Participation Rate grew to 66.7%, although the Unemployment Change increased by 7.8K people, amounting to 548.1K. Thus, the national labor market is actively recovering, which provides support to the national economy.

In turn, two key blocks of statistics were published yesterday in the US, which influenced the quotes. Initial Jobless Claims amounted to 229K, which exceeded the 215K projected by analysts, and Continuing Jobless Claims increased to 1.312M from 1.309M. In addition, a report on the state of the housing market was released, according to which in May the Building Permits Change fell to 1.695M from 1.823M a month earlier, which led to a decrease in the Housing Starts to 1.549M from 1.810M a month earlier. On the global chart of the asset, the price is trading within the Expanding Formation pattern, making a second attempt to implement the 5th wave. Technical indicators have already begun to weaken the sell signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line and the histogram of the AO oscillator has almost reached the transition level.

Support levels: 0.6966, 0.6850 | Resistance levels: 0.7072, 0.7265

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USD JPY, development of a new upward momentum
After a correction to 131.40, the pair USD JPY starts a new upward momentum with the target at 135.50 amid investor disappointment in the policy of the Bank of Japan. Today the regulator decided to leave the interest rate unchanged at –0.10%. At a subsequent press conference, department head Haruhiko Kuroda said it was appropriate now to maintain the current strong monetary easing to support the economy, which is needed for profitable companies to benefit from the poor yen and get a boost in capital expenditures, higher wages and a strengthening trend from income to expenses. It, in turn, should boost inflation to the 2.00% target. The Bank of Japan will continue to closely monitor the impact of the yen on the economy and prices and, in the event of a sharp change in the situation, will be ready to respond accordingly.

The Japanese authorities intend to create a specialized headquarters, the main task of which will be to monitor the market and combat the rise in the cost of living of the population and rising inflation in the country against the backdrop of rising energy costs and the weakening yen. Hirokazu Matsuno, Secretary General of the Cabinet of Ministers of Japan, noted that experts would also assess the impact of tightening the American regulator's monetary policy parameters and, in particular, the increase in the interest rate to 1.75% on the national economy. It is noted that the anti-crisis body will begin work on June 21. It is likely that in the long term, the growth of the USD JPY pair will continue to 139 and 141 since, from a fundamental point of view, the US dollar will strengthen due to the tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve and the increase in interest rates.

The long-term trend is upward. After the test of key support around 131, a new impulse began, which was to renew the weekly high around 135.5. In case of breakdown, the positive dynamics will continue to 139. According to the RSI indicator, there is a divergence on the chart, leading to a technical correction in the medium term.

The medium-term trend is upwards. This week, the traders tested the key trend support 131.63–131.29, after which the price began to rise to the high of the week in the 135.50 area, and zone 3 (137.10–136.72) will become its next target.

Resistance levels: 135.50, 139, 141 | Support levels: 131.40, 126.50, 124.08


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Netflix, technical analysis
On the daily chart of the asset, the formation of a global downward channel with dynamic boundaries at 70 – 205 continues, within which the trading instrument has almost reached the resistance line and is preparing to continue its decline.

On the four-hour chart, it can be seen that the main obstacle for the negative dynamics is the year's low at 163, which the price has already tested twice but has not been able to break, so a slight upward pullback is quite justified: it will allow the market to gain sufficient strength and overcome the obstacle. The technical indicators reversed and gave a sell signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range reversed downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars in the sell zone.

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Intel, the price may fall.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the local correction (iv) of iii the price will fall to the levels of 31.5 - 24.4. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 48.95.


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Nasdaq 100, formation of a global descending channel
One of the leading US indices, the Nasdaq 100, shows a downward trend, being at 11211. Due to the continued decline of stock markets, investors are increasingly paying attention to third-party markers that can describe and predict the future behavior of stocks. So, according to the Dow Jones Market Data report, for the first 100 days of this year, the combined dynamics of the leading US indices Dow Jones and S&P 500 was estimated by experts to be the weakest since 1970, and of the Nasdaq 100 technology index – even in the entire history of observations. Among the main reasons are high inflation and the insufficiently transparent policy of the US Fed regarding the regulation of interest rates.

As for global dynamics, the Buffett indicator, popular among bidders, reached 205%, which points out a significant revaluation of the stock market relative to the current state of the economy and hints at a possible continuation of the collapse in prices. The Wilshire 5000 Total Market composite stock market capitalization index was 46.69T dollars, and the latest GDP data was 22.72T dollars, which corresponds to 205% in terms of the coefficient, reflecting the highest value in history, whereas before the 2008 crisis it was about 150%.
The index quotes continue to form a global descending channel, declining in the direction of the support line. Technical indicators are in the state of a sell signal: the range of fluctuations of the EMAs of the alligator indicator is expanding in the direction of decline, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the sales zone.
Support levels: 11000, 10000 | Resistance levels: 11730, 12950

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Stocks of Meta Platforms, which owns Facebook, the world's largest social network, continue to trade in a corrective trend and are around the 160 mark. At the end of last week, the results of almost a decade of the company's activity were finally summed up. The last thing that connected Meta Platforms Inc. with the previous name was its stock ticker FB, which has now also changed to META and is already used in trading on the Nasdaq exchange. It should be noted that the rebranding did not contribute to improving the financial situation of the company. Since the beginning of 2022, the shares have fallen by 51.4%, and there are no prerequisites for a trend change yet. Previously, the Ministry of Digital Information of the Russian Federation published statistics according to which Meta Platforms Inc. lost about 80% of its traffic on social networks Facebook and Instagram due to blocking in the country. Through dedicated VPN channels, services are now visited by only 10%-12% of the volume recorded before blocking.

As for the global state, the financial report for Q2 will be published in July, which may reflect revenue of 29.29B dollars and earnings per share of 2.63 dollars, which is even inferior to the 2.72 dollars shown in Q1. The price is trading in a global downtrend and on the eve set a new low of the year at around 160. Technical indicators continue to hold a stable sell signal: the fast EMAs of the alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator, being in the sales zone, forms descending bars.

Support levels: 155, 130 | Resistance levels: 175, 211

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NZD USD, technical analysis

H4
On the four-hour chart, at the level of 0.6224, a "bullish" Inverted Hammer candlestick analysis pattern is formed, which is a signal for a price reversal at the bottom. The "bullish" trend in the asset is also confirmed by the appearance of the Engulfing Pattern, which indicates that, most likely, the asset has reached the bottom and is currently forming a reversal. A more likely scenario for further movement of the NZD USD quotes is an uptrend towards the resistance level of 0.6476, overcoming which will allow the "bulls" to head higher to the zone of 0.6709–0.6986. An alternative scenario is possible if the support level of 0.6224 is overcome with the target of 0.5931–0.5694. D1
The daily chart shows the formation of a Double Bottom price pattern, which is a reversal. In addition, a confirming signal is the formation of a Bullish Candle at the support level of 0.6224, which indicates the prevailing "bullish" power. The reversal is also confirmed by the formation of a Hammer Pattern indicating that buyers have taken control of the market and intend to raise the price in the range of 0.6476–0.6986. Support levels: 0.6224, 0.5931, 0.5694 | Resistance levels: 0.6476, 0.6709, 0.6986


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Crude Oil - The price may fall.

If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 82.3 – 67. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 123.8.

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Silver - The pair may fall.

If the assumption is correct, the XAG/USD pair will fall to the levels of 18.4 – 15.6. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 22.52.

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USD CAD - May high update
The US dollar continues to strengthen due to the policy of the US Federal Reserve aimed at tightening the parameters of the national monetary policy, and USD CAD is trading around 1.2995.

Last week, the regulator decided to raise the interest rate by 75 basis points to 1.75%, as a result of which the US dollar strengthened against the Canadian currency and updated the May high at 1.3065. US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the authorities' readiness to fight the highest inflation in the last 40 years and said that the changes made will increase the attractiveness of the national currency and increase the number of transactions nominated in it. Also, the authorities will continue to monitor the global economic situation, and, if necessary, will again adjust the rate upward at the next meeting at the end of July.
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar is declining following oil prices: WTI Crude Oil lost 7.7% last week and it looks like the negative dynamics will only intensify. Today, the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China presented a report that notes a record increase in imports of "black gold" from the Russian Federation: the figure reached 8.42 million tons, exceeding the April value by 25%, while the volume of supplied liquefied gas amounted to 400 thousand tons, which is 56% higher than in May last year. Analysts believe that the displacement of Saudi Arabia from the list of leaders among energy suppliers became possible against the backdrop of the implementation of the Russian authorities' discount policy in the sale of oil.

The tightening of monetary conditions by the US Federal Reserve acts as a catalyst for the upward movement of the US dollar, as a result of which USD/CAD may rush to 1.3360 after the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3065. Thus, there is a high probability that the trading instrument will continue to strengthen in the long term. The long-term trend is upward. Last week, the May high was updated at 1.3065 and if the price fixes above it, the next buy target will be at 1.3157. Strong levels, from which new long positions can be considered, formed in the area of 1.2950 and 1.2860.

The mid-term trend changed to an uptrend last week, when the target zone 1 (1.2766 – 1.2745) was broken out and the target zone 2 (1.2985 – 1.2963) was reached, above which the traders will try to consolidate this week. If successful, the growth of the trading instrument will continue with the target in the area of the target zone 3 (1.3212 - 1.3189). The key trend support is shifting to the levels of 1.2856 – 1.2835.

Resistance levels: 1.3065, 1.3157, 1.336 | Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2860, 1.2525

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USD CHF, the pair is trading within a wide range of 1.004 – 0.956

Last week, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly raised interest rates by 50 basis points to –0.25% for the first time in seven years, which caused the USD CHF pair to fall to 0.9650. Officials, led by Chairman Thomas Jordan, also spoke of the possibility of further tightening monetary policy and added that they would remain "active" in the foreign exchange market. Meanwhile, inflation in Switzerland continues to rise: the producer price index for May increased by 0.9%, and the upward trend is likely to continue, as a result of which the regulator will raise rates at the next meetings, which in the medium term can strengthen the Swiss franc.

However, the long-term trend in the USD CHF pair remains upward. After the test of 1.0040 and the buyers' inability to break through it, the price went into a correction and is currently testing the support level of 0.9650. If traders hold this level, the asset will continue to grow with the target at the month's high, and in case of a breakdown, a correction is expected with the target at the key support of the trend at 0.9560. The medium-term trend is downwards, and within its framework, the trading instrument has broken through the target zone 3 (0.9710 – 0.9699). The next sell target is zone 4 (0.9601–0.9591). Last week, the asset corrected to the key trend resistance area of 0.9738–0.9728, held by market participants. As a result, the USD CHF pair is now falling with the first target around last week's low of 0.9622.

Resistance levels: 1.0040, 1.012 | Support levels: 0.9650, 0.956

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