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Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

  • #16,641
  • Jun 16, 2022 7:09pm Jun 16, 2022 7:09pm
Quoting lbtrader
{quote} May I suggest when you see such a downtrend from the early morning to try and take sell signals rather than buy signals, I know it is not possible to tell when the bottom is reached and the reversal begins, but when you get an H1 lower open after a long downtrend let the first one or two entries pass. you will find they often trigger your buy stop and then reverse to make a new low.{image}


Can I ask please why you think it's not possible to tell when a bottom or top is reached and a reversal begins? Are you referring to it through the use of this strategy? I ask because my knowledge tells me a very different thing.

For me what you said is here say. But I am curious how you arrived at that conclusion.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #16,642
  • Jun 17, 2022 1:28am Jun 17, 2022 1:28am
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} Can I ask please why you think it's not possible to tell when a bottom or top is reached and a reversal begins? Are you referring to it through the use of this strategy? I ask because my knowledge tells me a very different thing. For me what you said is here say. But I am curious how you arrived at that conclusion. Peter
I will rephrase my statement, it is impossible to tell if a bottom or top was reached until a certain event occurred, i.e. after the fact, not while you're in the trade or watching the PA. usually this event is the break of a recent major swing low or high.
Please feel free to enlighten us with some useful actionable information instead of rambling in cryptic posts, nobody is asking to be spoon fed, but your cryptic messages can either stress people unnecessarily or lead them to ignore them altogether.
  • #16,643
  • Jun 17, 2022 2:54am Jun 17, 2022 2:54am
@ Peter Caleb 09:00 new H1 lower open, next candle makes a new low and retraces, so I place my stop order which is triggered at the down arrow. next candle retraces back instead of going up, so I close my trade as soon as it crosses the open (-4.5) and already placed a sell stop order at the low. three more lows are formed and I am +10 in profit. 10:00 A new H1 lower open is formed, I place my buy stop and this time the last low (L4) was the bottom, three candles later I close +25 in profit.
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  • #16,644
  • Jun 17, 2022 3:08am Jun 17, 2022 3:08am
Quoting lbtrader
{quote} I will rephrase my statement, it is impossible to tell if a bottom or top was reached until a certain event occurred, i.e. after the fact, not while you're in the trade or watching the PA. usually this event is the break of a recent major swing low or high. Please feel free to enlighten us with some useful actionable information instead of rambling in cryptic posts, nobody is asking to be spoon fed, but your cryptic messages can either stress people unnecessarily or lead them to ignore them altogether.


Firstly there's nothing cryptic about real life unless one lacks the real experience to note the distinction.

I will start by saying that "supply and demand", "support and resistance", "buy and sell zones" and all other anecdotal ideas are made up paraphernalia and do not relate to highs and lows on a price graph, therefore, they mean little whether you use a horizontal line, an angled line or an indicator of some style. Statistics cannot exist without probabilities because they share a relationship, so both must be included in what you do. Logic for this strategy (on its own) is based on circumstantial bias not real trade concepts. However can be put together. Real trade concepts always employ the same concrete elements =

- Constant
- Variable
- True/False vs Wet/Dry.
- Real world money management and unknown factor calculations.

These are the things that are elemental in business and money. Static value of money and its use for exchange is always relative and is merely the start of seeing what you can do with any strategy and money.

'After the fact' thinking is "linear" in time so one has a "I'll believe it when I see it" mindset.

If you want to do better then use Time as the meter and not price "behavior". Time evaporates as prices change so it's feasible to "preset" a locale on the price chart for a future movement. This is not "taught" to "common folks" like us usually because it is the precursor to leverage and Time spent.

See the difference yet?

"Prediction" is not some ugly word, in fact it's extremely necessary in trading and investing using "money" because Time and money are, in some contexts, pitted against each other. So if you want to keep chasing the carrot around, then follow price. If you want to minimize speculation you have to understand when price and Time work together and not against each other.

A higher high of overnight print is indicating role reversal.

But this is not a signal of a big move. It's a sign of transition. This is the problem with only looking at one price chart and waiting for "setups". It's similar to playing solitaire on your computer and hoping you win.

Of all the HOLO 'setups' you have seen or used, how many play out beyond a sensible percentage of your trade moves? Say 50% of a move you usually get that "wins" ?

Here's where statistics breakdown without using probabilities and Time.

And this is why I am harsh to people.

I would suggest to exchange the word "prediction" for "preparedness".

TASK =

Categorize EVERY trade setup you have done re: the HOLO approach into one of the two categories .....

True/False vs Wet/Dry.

Why?

True/False is hoping with fingers crossed that "this setup will generate a profit". Without knowledge of how to SEE the big move first means you have to trail a stop value and risk less-than-healthy outcomes to occur. NOT good for the business of money. This is what people are referring to when they say "I got a 60% WIN SR" etc etc. or whatever it is. There is no risk calculation for unknown factors and so it is left to chance. Gamblers Anon. is full of people who try this but do not understand why it never works. It places too much pressure on the money management and cannot balance out the situation without "that one big payout" to get back what was "lost". It is why robotic trading is pointless.

The HOLO strategy is good for starting the day with an observation without action.

The Wet/Dry approach is when you refine this strategy in ways where you are not relying on chance but you have determined whether you can work with the situation presented. If it does not show up, then you do nothing. I'll let that sit for a bit. Now back to highs and Lows.

Each high is the counterpart to activity NOT the "previous highs". This is very important to understand and even more so to observe happening because each small medium big movement show markers of how it will get there and why it gets there. Of course the most obvious piece is the when because the size of the distance moved per period is easily seen on the chart. The other point I will make here is this - placing a trade order is easy or simple, but this is not trading. It is merely sending an order to market so it's just execution. Details and personal psychology do matter.

The task of seeing where a move will go is not based on "black swan events" etc but general usual market activity. So preparedness is easier than prediction. So for me, I'm not interested in "knowing" something that is not known to me already. I leave that to my unknown risk factor calculations so I can focus on my work.

So seeing highs and lows inline with its activity and also what "others" do helps to see how it moves around and why black swans occur.

Eg ---

Last high was 50 pips away from current price. Your rate of change will accelerate into a price area that is near to its predecessors.

If someone says that a Tick chart is the most accurate form of activity, they're simply mistaken. Just as a price chart traders think previous "anythings" are more important or relevant than anything else.

Something prior in price, relative to the accumulated time that money has circulated and been produced, is what creates near or far away activity. That is a chart's view and purpose. But people are what see the movement and watch the chart. So previous highs and lows are observed from all perspectives, so it makes perfect sense to appreciate all of those perspectives - independently and together. Otherwise you just see "higher high or lower low".

Although this thread might seem like it's "only" about HOLO, to learn how to drive a car one must not only focus on the tyres the rims and nuts.

If you only watch it go "up" and start looking "left" to see possible areas or levels it may/might/could go to, you have missed the details. If you want to keep your money the details are important.

Most people think of a strategy and then consider the %'s. In some of my replies etc I have shown why price time and activity all matter. Highs lows or sideways.

All of "this" may not be what you want or expected, but really, I am writing this for any person who desires how to do it well and not get "stuck" as most of us normal folk tend to allow to happen.

The rest is .... I'm afraid, not linear thinking or short answers without any thinking. You can find some of it in the pdf's on the objective thinking thread post 1 but unless the person is ready for it, I would say start observing and make notes rather than doing the same thing over and over again expecting different things to happen.

** Every high or low move can be prepared for and must be considered and observed with simultaneous perspectives - both 'normal market activity' and 'black swan event' so you have more than just chance or "statistics" and "logic" on your side.

Sorry if this is not what you wanted to read.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #16,645
  • Jun 17, 2022 3:13am Jun 17, 2022 3:13am
Quoting lbtrader
@ Peter Caleb 09:00 new H1 lower open, next candle makes a new low and retraces, so I place my stop order which is triggered at the down arrow. next candle retraces back instead of going up, so I close my trade as soon as it crosses the open (-4.5) and already placed a sell stop order at the low. three more lows are formed and I am +10 in profit. 10:00 A new H1 lower open is formed, I place my buy stop and this time the last low (L4) was the bottom, three candles later I close +25 in profit. {image}


Not sure what you want me to do with your post .... critique it or ???


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #16,646
  • Edited 9:05am Jun 17, 2022 3:21am | Edited 9:05am
Quoting PeterCaleb
{quote} Can I ask please why you think it's not possible to tell when a bottom or top is reached and a reversal begins? Are you referring to it through the use of this strategy? I ask because my knowledge tells me a very different thing. For me what you said is here say. But I am curious how you arrived at that conclusion. Peter
Quote
Not sure what you want me to do with your post .... critique it or ???
no, not really, you asked why I think it's not possible to tell when a bottom or top is reached and a reversal begins and I answered in my post with 4 consecutive lows.
  • #16,647
  • Jun 17, 2022 3:29am Jun 17, 2022 3:29am
Quoting lbtrader
{quote} {quote} no, not really, you asked why and I answered in my post with 4 consecutive lows.


So you are answering your own question? Uuuum ok. With it running down on 2 or more USD pairs. And there is an activity marker in that area on multiple fronts. I am not surprised it turned.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #16,648
  • Edited 8:43am Jun 17, 2022 3:36am | Edited 8:43am
[quote=PeterCaleb;14036370]{quote} So you are answering your own question? Uuuum ok.
Quote
With it running down on 2 or more USD pairs. And there is an activity marker in that area on multiple fronts. I am not surprised it turned. Peter
I don't recall asking any question.
Quote
With it running down on 2 or more USD pairs. And there is an activity marker in that area on multiple fronts. I am not surprised it turned
sure
  • #16,649
  • Jun 17, 2022 4:46am Jun 17, 2022 4:46am
EURAUD TS +1
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  • #16,650
  • Jun 17, 2022 4:47am Jun 17, 2022 4:47am
CHFJPY TS +3
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  • #16,651
  • Jun 17, 2022 5:09am Jun 17, 2022 5:09am
Hey Guys... What to do in a situation like this?
My sell stop triggered as price came down to the previous highest open but then retraces back up.
Now the next H1 has opened higher
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  • #16,652
  • Jun 17, 2022 5:51am Jun 17, 2022 5:51am
EURJPY TS +6
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  • #16,653
  • Jun 17, 2022 6:06am Jun 17, 2022 6:06am
AUDJPY TS +3

Before anyone tells me that my entry was late please refer to post 16652.. I was kinda stuck and not sure what to do.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post14036478
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  • #16,654
  • Jun 17, 2022 6:23am Jun 17, 2022 6:23am
Quoting nonibadsha
AUDJPY TS +3 Before anyone tells me that my entry was late please refer to post 16652.. I was kinda stuck and not sure what to do. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post14036478 {image}



If I was to create or input a rule of thumb/basic premise for this thread it would be = Weekly/Daily ROC (Rate of Change - as shown on my previous posts) and direction overall. Then with this in mind look at your small present situation. Sometimes you don't need to close the order as there's something larger coming from behind. But for people here seeking to learn, accept poor price position and close out order then recheck setup and wait to have another go. There are other options but I sense to keep it simple for you here.This is not advice just an idea. I don't know your money situation etc.


Peter
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #16,655
  • Jun 17, 2022 7:14am Jun 17, 2022 7:14am
GBPUSD TS +4
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  • #16,656
  • Jun 17, 2022 8:33am Jun 17, 2022 8:33am
Quoting nonibadsha
Hey Guys... What to do in a situation like this? My sell stop triggered as price came down to the previous highest open but then retraces back up. Now the next H1 has opened higher {image}
Sorry, I just came and saw your post. you can either let the old sell play or if you see a valid setup in the new AOI you can add another sell. up to you and depends on your risk management.
  • #16,657
  • Edited 8:52am Jun 17, 2022 8:34am | Edited 8:52am
Quoting nonibadsha
AUDJPY TS +3 Before anyone tells me that my entry was late please refer to post 16652.. I was kinda stuck and not sure what to do. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post14036478 {image}
looks like you decided to let only one trade play, that's ok too. but you had three more chances on the new AOI.
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  • #16,658
  • Jun 17, 2022 11:22am Jun 17, 2022 11:22am
trade 35

win 1 pip
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  • #16,659
  • Jun 17, 2022 11:23am Jun 17, 2022 11:23am
trade 36

win 34.5 pips
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  • #16,660
  • Jun 17, 2022 11:24am Jun 17, 2022 11:24am
trade 37

win 31.6 pips
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