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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #7,981
  • Jun 15, 2022 1:38am Jun 15, 2022 1:38am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} It is not possible to blow my account unless I had hundreds of losses in a row. You tell me, what do you know?
I don't want to get into this convo with you. If you've found success with what you're doing I'm happy for you. all i know is warren buffet only makes 20% per year, and you're saying you do 20% every 10 days. I can't make sense of it, but maybe it's not for me to make sense of.
  • #7,982
  • Jun 15, 2022 2:28am Jun 15, 2022 2:28am
Quoting beastwork
{quote} I don't want to get into this convo with you. If you've found success with what you're doing I'm happy for you. all i know is warren buffet only makes 20% per year, and you're saying you do 20% every 10 days. I can't make sense of it, but maybe it's not for me to make sense of.
What I am saying is I try to make 1% every day as a minimum allowing 100 days to double but I have been doing it much faster.

This was my trade earlier today because it is raining outside.

The target is where I expect price to go, not my profit target.
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  • #7,983
  • Jun 15, 2022 3:21am Jun 15, 2022 3:21am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Don't forget to consider your options. If your confidence is yet not so great, consider your next double to take 12 days using the same commitment as your previous one. Still good value is it not?
Yes thank you, focusing more to get a daily tp then the actual profits since I am only trading a small account. Simply trying to get consistent.
  • #7,984
  • Jun 15, 2022 3:27am Jun 15, 2022 3:27am
Quoting beastwork
{quote} I don't want to get into this convo with you.
I mean, then why did you even post the first comment?
  • #7,985
  • Jun 15, 2022 3:42am Jun 15, 2022 3:42am
Quoting Fantaburk
{quote} I mean, then why did you even post the first comment?
i don't want to derail his thread. i said what i said, we can leave it at that. inbox me if you really want to discuss. happy trading :-)
  • #7,986
  • Jun 15, 2022 3:51am Jun 15, 2022 3:51am
Quoting beastwork
{quote} i don't want to derail his thread. i said what i said, we can leave it at that. inbox me if you really want to discuss. happy trading :-)
Lol. No thanks. Bye
  • #7,987
  • Jun 15, 2022 4:00am Jun 15, 2022 4:00am
Quoting Fantaburk
{quote} Lol. No thanks. Bye
great! it's like you never existed.
  • #7,988
  • Jun 15, 2022 4:16am Jun 15, 2022 4:16am
Anyone get this one...
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  • #7,989
  • Jun 15, 2022 4:23am Jun 15, 2022 4:23am
Quoting Nala66
Anyone get this one... {image}
Saw it but didn't trade it well enough. Like how it was at the next m5 ema lever as well.
  • #7,990
  • Jun 15, 2022 4:29am Jun 15, 2022 4:29am
Quoting Fantaburk
{quote} Saw it but didn't trade it well enough. Like how it was at the next m5 ema lever as well.
It was indeed and landed itself in a 5 min bear div for a short.

I am up 1.5% and quitting for the day, I have a headache trying to understand the sceptic septic I suppose.
  • #7,991
  • Jun 15, 2022 9:05am Jun 15, 2022 9:05am
I'm still busy reading the entire thread. I understand that the backbone of this trading style is the EMA 26. I have read many times about the failure / success in creating a new HH or LL. Success is clear (overcoming the previous swing) but I realize that I don't understand the concept of failure. or rather, I have not yet understood when we are certain that the market has failed to go in one direction or the other. is the failure necessarily suggested by a divergence? or is it not necessary?
  • #7,992
  • Jun 15, 2022 9:36am Jun 15, 2022 9:36am
Quoting Nala66
Anyone get this one... {image}
Hello Alan, I saw DIV bull but later overbought and the bear DIV appear, so i have scalp the move down and missing the entire move up.
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That's make me confuse, in a situation of both DIV bear/bull happen next to each other, how do you know that DIV bull still work ?

For example, on H4 chart below, we have bull DIV (1) and later bear DIV (2), that's drag price down to new low, price never make to EMA. However, on H1, we also have bull DIV and later bear DIV and price still break through EMA.
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Currently H4 we have similar situation, DIV bull but DIV bear has appear. Due to the clue on H4, do you think price will go up or down ?
  • #7,993
  • Edited 10:02pm Jun 15, 2022 9:50pm | Edited 10:02pm
Quoting eliotjng
{quote} Hello Alan, I saw DIV bull but later overbought and the bear DIV appear, so i have scalp the move down and missing the entire move up. {image} That's make me confuse, in a situation of both DIV bear/bull happen next to each other, how do you know that DIV bull still work ? For example, on H4 chart below, we have bull DIV (1) and later bear DIV (2), that's drag price down to new low, price never make to EMA. However, on H1, we also have bull DIV and later bear DIV and price still break through EMA. {image}Currently H4 we have similar situation,...
This really is quite simple stuff.

Note first the market is trading below the EMA so it is a downtrend.

Note in a downtrend there may be many bull divergences and the rule is... If the price does not break the EMA and Find support then it is likely to make a LL

So at 1 you are trading against the trend so this would be a possible scalp or a hedge trade. It is important to move the stop to BE because if it fails to cross the EMA then we are protected from loss.

At 2 we are with the trend and know it is going lower than 1, collect your money.

3 is again against the trend so get that stop to BE should it fail to cross the EMA. Watch here for the turn at the 50% level of 2 to 3. If it breaks through then it is probably going to challenge the EMA. I would close at the EMA because it becomes an iffy area to trade.

Not sure what 4 was all about, I see that just as a hook test of the previous div 3. Which means if the test fails you can go long above the test.

Hope this helps.

PS I just noticed this is a 4 hour chart, that is a long winded way of getting your pips though it is of value to determine what is going on and the directions to follow.

Another PS Put a 1 period SMA on the chart to more clearly define your price swings.

Another PS Put a 156 period EMA on the chart this is the 26 period EMA of the daily

Remember it is the EMA we are looking at and what it is trying to do, which previous level is it trying to break

My 4 hour looks like this....
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  • #7,994
  • Jun 15, 2022 10:17pm Jun 15, 2022 10:17pm
Quoting eliotjng
{quote} Hello Alan, I saw DIV bull but later overbought and the bear DIV appear, so i have scalp the move down and missing the entire move up. {image} That's make me confuse, in a situation of both DIV bear/bull happen next to each other, how do you know that DIV bull still work ? For example, on H4 chart below, we have bull DIV (1) and later bear DIV (2), that's drag price down to new low, price never make to EMA. However, on H1, we also have bull DIV and later bear DIV and price still break through EMA. {image}Currently H4 we have similar situation,...
Your 5 min chart is way out of whack corrected in pink below...
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  • #7,995
  • Jun 15, 2022 10:19pm Jun 15, 2022 10:19pm
Anyone catch this while I was sleeping... Two AB = CD's in one day!
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  • #7,996
  • Jun 16, 2022 2:10am Jun 16, 2022 2:10am
Quoting Danielesse87
I'm still busy reading the entire thread. I understand that the backbone of this trading style is the EMA 26. I have read many times about the failure / success in creating a new HH or LL. Success is clear (overcoming the previous swing) but I realize that I don't understand the concept of failure. or rather, I have not yet understood when we are certain that the market has failed to go in one direction or the other. is the failure necessarily suggested by a divergence? or is it not necessary?
If you don't mind me answering.
I would say we are never certain, but working with probability rather. That is why taking inference from higher timeframe is important.

When you trade from a h1 ZOO-point, you can look at which m5 ema levels that are likely to fail and therefore which ones that should be tested.
  • #7,997
  • Jun 16, 2022 2:16am Jun 16, 2022 2:16am
I am done and dusted already, I was just aiming for the daily pivot but it shot way through and I could have been greedy hey!
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  • #7,998
  • Jun 16, 2022 2:18am Jun 16, 2022 2:18am
Quoting Fantaburk
{quote} If you don't mind me answering. I would say we are never certain, but working with probability rather. That is why taking inference from higher timeframe is important. When you trade from a h1 ZOO-point, you can look at which m5 ema levels that are likely to fail and therefore which ones that should be tested.
This can also read ... Trade to a ZOO point like I just did.
  • #7,999
  • Jun 16, 2022 2:26am Jun 16, 2022 2:26am
Now then is this going to be a third AB =CD taking price to the Daily R2
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  • #8,000
  • Jun 16, 2022 3:19am Jun 16, 2022 3:19am
Quoting Danielesse87
I'm still busy reading the entire thread. I understand that the backbone of this trading style is the EMA 26. I have read many times about the failure / success in creating a new HH or LL. Success is clear (overcoming the previous swing) but I realize that I don't understand the concept of failure. or rather, I have not yet understood when we are certain that the market has failed to go in one direction or the other. is the failure necessarily suggested by a divergence? or is it not necessary?
I just made a drawing to show the concept in visual terms if this helps.

The black line is the EMA no price line is shown.
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