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The Swamp

  • #101,461
  • Jun 14, 2022 7:32am Jun 14, 2022 7:32am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It closed a 1h above 0441. Now a1h close above 0455, could free up some run up. 0485 is in that ADR area (ADR at 0494). 0494/96 could be a scalp. R becomes support.. 0441 is a weak support. 0455.1 could be the same with a close above. A pump can defy trend. I dont know why.. Maybe people like me, out the market, waiting for the pump. Maybe people like me, closing shorts and waiting is just enough to pump it. Lack of FOMO could pump it. {image}
Don't fire till you see the whites in their eyes.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,462
  • Jun 14, 2022 9:06am Jun 14, 2022 9:06am
Not bullish on these last 2 hs.. A shooting star off the rejection of 0462. Followed up with a close under 0441. On the larger picture pa is above 0421. 0421 is probably going to be tested shortly.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,463
  • Jun 14, 2022 9:36am Jun 14, 2022 9:36am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It closed a 1h above 0441. Now a1h close above 0455, could free up some run up. 0485 is in that ADR area (ADR at 0494). 0494/96 could be a scalp. R becomes support.. 0441 is a weak support. 0455.1 could be the same with a close above. A pump can defy trend. I dont know why.. Maybe people like me, out the market, waiting for the pump. Maybe people like me, closing shorts and waiting is just enough to pump it. Lack of FOMO could pump it. {image}
No longs for me. All looks bearish. I cant short in front of FOMC. I placed pendings in case of the rouge pump before FOMC. I dont want to watch it for the next 29 hs. Pending short placed in the unlikely pump to 0568/90. If those black boxes can get some rhythm, buying near the tiny lows. They have a shot to push enough st volume to raise the price. I dont see any evidence of this atm. Just the opposite. But often they do it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,464
  • Jun 14, 2022 9:39am Jun 14, 2022 9:39am
opposite,
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,465
  • Jun 14, 2022 10:07am Jun 14, 2022 10:07am
Quoting gatorinla
opposite, {image}
no foothold, no rise.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,466
  • Jun 14, 2022 10:12am Jun 14, 2022 10:12am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Should you long the GBP?. I have some supports. Closing below is not bullish. 1.2307.3 could be a support. But its not below it. More so with closes below. Next week at those others with the same rules a chance to bounce may present itself. If the EU is dropping it may bring the GU down to 2226 or 2193 to test those. The same rules apply to closes. Closing below 2155.9. Is a LL. All goes out the window there, At least until those levels in magenta are closed above. Treat 2155x as eu 0786 was treated. PA has to get below it no matter what...
GBP foothold lost,, Hedge funds were royally screwed.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,467
  • Jun 14, 2022 10:13am Jun 14, 2022 10:13am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Should you long the GBP?. I have some supports. Closing below is not bullish. 1.2307.3 could be a support. But its not below it. More so with closes below. Next week at those others with the same rules a chance to bounce may present itself. If the EU is dropping it may bring the GU down to 2226 or 2193 to test those. The same rules apply to closes. Closing below 2155.9. Is a LL. All goes out the window there, At least until those levels in magenta are closed above. Treat 2155x as eu 0786 was treated. PA has to get below...
GBP foothold lost,, Hedge funds were royally screwed.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,468
  • Jun 14, 2022 2:11pm Jun 14, 2022 2:11pm
Gold.. if not bounce at round number 1800, next support 1784 week uptrend stop...
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  • #101,469
  • Jun 14, 2022 5:01pm Jun 14, 2022 5:01pm
Quoting hans91
{quote} You will be regret bro if cutloss right now..if ECB have couragement to fight the inflation we may see it will be back to the upside again maybe incoming weeks to your mentioned target..
I'm still holding longs. 0480/1 was a good one to exit longs. But normally I expect more correction. So I decided to hold. 0699 and 0716 have still chance to be reached imo. I'm playing with fire just before FOMC. It's bearish. Most of the time, I regret not being in direction of gator. My daily is bearish atm. I have longs under water. But I know support is tough. Bounces may come. I may be wrong.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #101,470
  • Jun 14, 2022 6:39pm Jun 14, 2022 6:39pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} No longs for me. All looks bearish. I cant short in front of FOMC. I placed pendings in case of the rouge pump before FOMC. I dont want to watch it for the next 29 hs. Pending short placed in the unlikely pump to 0568/90. If those black boxes can get some rhythm, buying near the tiny lows. They have a shot to push enough st volume to raise the price. I dont see any evidence of this atm. Just the opposite. But often they do it.
I still hope to sell a pump before FOMC.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,471
  • Jun 14, 2022 6:57pm Jun 14, 2022 6:57pm
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} I'm still holding longs. 0480/1 was a good one to exit longs. But normally I expect more correction. So I decided to hold. 0699 and 0716 have still chance to be reached imo. I'm playing with fire just before FOMC. It's bearish. Most of the time, I regret not being in direction of gator. My daily is bearish atm. I have longs under water. But I know support is tough. Bounces may come. I may be wrong.
I expect more than 1.07.. also i insist it will go up further to 1.1 - 1.11..just give it some time to market to change the situation though take a long enough time as history will be repeated again..just my simpe though..
  • #101,472
  • Jun 14, 2022 7:30pm Jun 14, 2022 7:30pm
Quoting hans91
{quote} I expect more than 1.07.. also i insist it will go up further to 1.1 - 1.11..just give it some time to market to change the situation though take a long enough time as history will be repeated again..just my simpe though..
I don't know if situation will change or not. Fundies are against rise atm. All looks bearish. A bounce to 0699/0716 is a 5 years support job. Bears are doing their best to break out this support. Bulls have less chance to hold it because of fundies. A day close above 0648 then 0746 and 0779 is needed to open the doors to 1.13xx imo. Since it's bearish on daily, talking about those levels is only time wasting.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #101,473
  • Jun 15, 2022 1:16am Jun 15, 2022 1:16am
ECB to hold unscheduled meeting to discuss market rout ... RTRS
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #101,474
  • Jun 15, 2022 4:14am Jun 15, 2022 4:14am
Let's count the waves together. This is an typical ABC pattern formation which is evolving right now. Either wait for the pattern to complete or it to be broken below. I think a lot of trapping is going on right now. I am on side-lines watching. After ABC pattern is completed which I don't know where it's gonna end (will update in future post) a continuation of downtrend is more obvious but since its news day nothing is off the table and I can be completely wrong in my assumption.
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The mind is not a book to be opened at will and examined at leisure
  • #101,475
  • Jun 15, 2022 7:17am Jun 15, 2022 7:17am
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} I don't know if situation will change or not. Fundies are against rise atm. All looks bearish. A bounce to 0699/0716 is a 5 years support job. Bears are doing their best to break out this support. Bulls have less chance to hold it because of fundies. A day close above 0648 then 0746 and 0779 is needed to open the doors to 1.13xx imo. Since it's bearish on daily, talking about those levels is only time wasting.
My levels are lower. Do you have a chart with that 5 year support? Thanks.

Depending on broker. I 0506.8/0520 as the lowest large closes since 2001. But I figure something stopped it there. For that to have closed 0506/20, it had a reason. That reason to me is, the large support at 0421. 0421 is the real support that those past legs were unable to close below. This morning the bounce was contained atm, by 0506. If it was to close June below 0421. I don't think it will stop. Maybe a bounce at 1.008. A medium support.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,476
  • Edited 7:35am Jun 15, 2022 7:23am | Edited 7:35am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} My levels are lower. Do you have a chart with that 5 year support? Thanks. Depending on broker. I 0506.8/0520 as the lowest large closes since 2001. But I figure something stopped it there. For that to have closed 0506/20, it had a reason. That reason to me is, the large support at 0421. 0421 is the real support that those past legs were unable to close below. This morning the bounce was contained atm, by 0506. If it was to close June below 0421. I don't think it will stop. Maybe a bounce at 1.008. A medium support.
Large players are playing with real supports. Between large numbers 0421 and 0506.8/20...

Close June below 0421. An its a close below a 2 decade support. It also would be the large below 0506/20. Later 0421 should be a big R.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,477
  • Jun 15, 2022 7:59am Jun 15, 2022 7:59am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} My levels are lower. Do you have a chart with that 5 year support? Thanks. Depending on broker. I 0506.8/0520 as the lowest large closes since 2001. But I figure something stopped it there. For that to have closed 0506/20, it had a reason. That reason to me is, the large support at 0421. 0421 is the real support that those past legs were unable to close below. This morning the bounce was contained atm, by 0506. If it was to close June below 0421. I don't think it will stop. Maybe a bounce at 1.008. A medium support.
it's trading near the low of 2016/2017. Nov 2015 closed 0563. Then bounced. After that it closed 0551 Dec 2016 (Lower close), It bounced again. April 2022 closed 0546, It can bounce again. I don't know what is holding eu to more drop from here. But since it's trading near floor of last 5/6/7 years, I call it support ignoring April close 0546. I know it can finally break this trampoline, but it need more time and effort imo. Today is FOMC, It can make a wick below the low and it still have chance to rise, or it can rise before making LL.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #101,478
  • Jun 15, 2022 8:03am Jun 15, 2022 8:03am
Today after FOMC. 0421 +- should be a big deal. The next support on this scale is 1.0008. The R above 0506/20 or 1.0835.5.

Since I do target 0.8xx. I expect 1.0421 to give up. I don't know if today, is that day. But a FOMC rate hike to 0.75 or 1.0 is a good day for a drop. If a 0.5 raise, it may rise some. But eventually pa will return. This being 2 weeks from the quarter/bi year end. Its would be a good time to crash supports. The energy balance is a drip drip. Fundamental that will put the eu at 0.8xx. There is nothing the ECB or the Fed is willing to do to stop it. This was pumped since the early 1970s. The pendulum swings both ways. It went up for almost 40 years. Its dropped for 14 years. It still has room to fall. Easily to 2001 levels. 0.82 (911 levels) The U.S. deficit dropped 600 billion the past year. Its expected to drop 1.3 trillion in the next year. At the same time Germany will borrow to increase defense spending to 2 % of GDP. That's more debt to the EZ. Less debt in the U.S. That will boost the USD comparably.

Inflation wise. The entire world will suffer. The ones with domestic energy will do better than those w/o. The currency will reflect that.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,479
  • Jun 15, 2022 8:13am Jun 15, 2022 8:13am
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} it's trading near the low of 2016/2017. Nov 2015 closed 0563. Then bounced. After that it closed 0551 Dec 2016 (Lower close), It bounced again. April 2022 closed 0546, It can bounce again. I don't know what is holding eu to more drop from here. But since it's trading near floor of last 5/6/7 years, I call it support ignoring April close 0546. I know it can finally break this trampoline, but it need more time and effort imo. Today is FOMC, It can make a wick below the low and it still have chance to rise, or it can rise before making LL.
Since April closed below 0563. Is that a break in that support? I did something similar with 0506/20. I had to stand back and ask myself "why". Why did it close there? I looked for an answer. I think it was because it never closed (a large time frame) below 0421. The same Friday concerning the GBP and COT buying on a smaller scale. The close Tuesday and Wedsday sucked them into a bad trade. Because Friday screwed them with the week close.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,480
  • Jun 15, 2022 8:26am Jun 15, 2022 8:26am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Since April closed below 0563. Is that a break in that support? I did something similar with 0506/20. I had to stand back and ask myself "why". Why did it close there? I looked for an answer. I think it was because it never closed (a large time frame) below 0421. The same Friday concerning the GBP and COT buying on a smaller scale. The close Tuesday and Wedsday sucked them into a bad trade. Because Friday screwed them with the week close.
Dec 2016 it closed below 0563. But it climbed after. So what is exactly the support? We've seen several lower closes below supports on this area that was bear trap. I don't say I will trade an imaginary trap, just saying chance for bulls is not over.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
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