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The Swamp

  • #101,441
  • Jun 13, 2022 9:18am Jun 13, 2022 9:18am
Quoting gatorinla
I closed earlier a few pips higher. If not i would take some off the table after this. Its bearish.. The flag formation, is still a bear channel. The 4h close above 0458.8 would of spoked me some. I still expect a drop. Out of caution of giving it all back. I would of closed some and tried to re-enter later at a higher level. I may e wrong. The wave target is 1.02, another 1.0176. I can still play those if 1.0458.8 starts to resist. Or in a bounce to one of those others. London fix may go with the 4h above 0458.8. The 4h candle was red. I just see...
No bounce.. I regret closing.. Oh well. I made some early this week.
Price is about to test 0421/25..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,442
  • Jun 13, 2022 9:52am Jun 13, 2022 9:52am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} You are here. against 0520.. This is a one year chart. It hasn't closed -0506.8/0520, depending on broker. It hasn't closed below this point since Dec 2001. That was the year of 911. Bulls need to close above. bears need to beat that close, That close, and it probably has to be below 1.0421. 0421 may be the real support. (year close wise). Still over 6 months before the year close. A new low -03xx, a year below 0520 would be a lower close. But something made it stop. I suspect it was 0421. A LL and a close below 0421 I...
It can pass 0421, I think 0421 is the real support that held up eu for the last decade. I think a month close below, and a LL will bring it to test 1.008x.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,443
  • Jun 13, 2022 10:48am Jun 13, 2022 10:48am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It can pass 0421, I think 0421 is the real support that held up eu for the last decade. I think a month close below, and a LL will bring it to test 1.008x. {image}
This being a Q, and a 1/2 year close in June. It has a shot at a LL, a lower close, and a low close below 0421. If it does not do these things.. It may not be ready to drop. A bounce would be more likely w/o those lower closes. . Today is 2 weeks before a month close. It has time to run up or down a few times. Staying below 0568 favors a drop. Staying below 0458 favors a drop. As long as below these. 0421 has pressure. If 0421 starts to act as R. It may be a telling sign,

Month chart
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,444
  • Jun 13, 2022 1:44pm Jun 13, 2022 1:44pm
Eu is very bearish, no doubt about it. But god help euro shorts if 1/ we cannot make a lower low (0350-) and start bouncing with conviction or 2/ make a lower low but then immediately break the high (0787+)... And as you may or may not have heard, the ECB might raise in July... Jokes aside, if eu irates start closing the gap and show even a remote possibility to turn the difference around then these two scenarios will become very real very fast. Somehow I don't see we'll have a relaxed summer...
  • #101,445
  • Edited 3:47pm Jun 13, 2022 3:36pm | Edited 3:47pm
Quoting xav
Eu is very bearish, no doubt about it. But god help euro shorts if 1/ we cannot make a lower low (0350-) and start bouncing with conviction or 2/ make a lower low but then immediately break the high (0787+)... And as you may or may not have heard, the ECB might raise in July... Jokes aside, if eu irates start closing the gap and show even a remote possibility to turn the difference around then these two scenarios will become very real very fast. Somehow I don't see we'll have a relaxed summer...
Buying small positions on a drop could be ok. It depends on the individuals tolerance. Making a LL would be a close long to me.

As for as EZ goes. Yeah they will one day stop talking about a hike. Inflation is killing them. The cure of making tourism more expensive for Asians visiting. Even with a stronger usd Americans are spending less on discretionary like E vacations. Raising the price on E exports may slow inflation some. But on the other side of that coin. It will increase unemployment for them. EZ is phucked. Its not a black or white issue. Its the chicken or the egg.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,446
  • Jun 13, 2022 3:41pm Jun 13, 2022 3:41pm
Eu is in a very tough spot. Hiking rates will hurt more for eu than USA, weak eur means everything is more expensive and priced in usd.

Fx intervention
A fool and his money are easily parted
  • #101,447
  • Jun 13, 2022 4:00pm Jun 13, 2022 4:00pm
3 day white soldiers (3 black crow). Sell bounces is the pattern. A further drop sign. It should test near support, or b/o.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,448
  • Jun 13, 2022 4:06pm Jun 13, 2022 4:06pm
google 3 white soldiers or 3 black crow. These 3 red day candles above, from 077x qualify (black crow). But take the low 1.03 into that consideration.

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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,449
  • Jun 13, 2022 4:25pm Jun 13, 2022 4:25pm
Quoting saninvestor
Added last one 0460. I need 0699. I'm trying to catch the falling knife. So I may regret to do. My daily is still bullish except it close below 0456. My day level is very close to boulder's 0455. So a day close below them and I will take the loss.
I have to close longs because it closed day below 0456. I will lost almost all Jun profit. The day close above 0770 in 30May changed my bias to bullish on eu. So I decided to buy dips. 0570/6 was my support and 50% fib. I had also a bullish pattern in 12h chart. Seems the ECB and FED telling another story. I have still 0699 as a possible retrace. If go there, it will be a sweet spot to enter shorts for me because it turned bearish again on my daily chart. I do expect 0699 before 0350/79 breakout on day chart. It still may make a wick below the low. Of course it's bearish. Very bearish. So all bounce expectations could be disappointed. I'm following pa closely, looking for a correction to exit longs at better price and less loss. However it may not bounce and I cut the loss somewhere here.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #101,450
  • Jun 13, 2022 8:52pm Jun 13, 2022 8:52pm
Quoting gatorinla
3 day white soldiers (3 black crow). Sell bounces is the pattern. A further drop sign. It should test near support, or b/o. {image}
3 black crows, Wave target 1.02 or 1.0176. Last week closing below 0568. Now a day close below 0421.. Nothing bullish to me momentum wise. The Fed may even do a .75 raise. This is all extremally bearish to me. With that all said its above the support at 034x. It can bounce. I have a little support at 0404.
The 4h closed above 0421 last h. I do expect the lows to be tested and a new LL. I just dont know if today is the day 2 weeks from the Q ending. I will look to sell. maybe 0496, or 0568. near 0568 is a short for me, Its R to me. 0458 is 1/2 that R. see chart
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,451
  • Jun 14, 2022 3:25am Jun 14, 2022 3:25am
fyi
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  • #101,452
  • Jun 14, 2022 3:38am Jun 14, 2022 3:38am
Caan we have the datapoints for GOLD please
Cheers!!
  • #101,453
  • Jun 14, 2022 4:37am Jun 14, 2022 4:37am
Quoting Boulder
fyi {image}
I was sleeping hard when you tried to wake me. Since its above 0421 with a 12 close. It could still make 0494/96. It may rise after a 0441/42 support test.

After those 3 black crows, looking for a short looks best to continue. 1.02 is a wave target. 1.02 or 1.0176

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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,454
  • Jun 14, 2022 4:38am Jun 14, 2022 4:38am
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} I have to close longs because it closed day below 0456. I will lost almost all Jun profit. The day close above 0770 in 30May changed my bias to bullish on eu. So I decided to buy dips. 0570/6 was my support and 50% fib. I had also a bullish pattern in 12h chart. Seems the ECB and FED telling another story. I have still 0699 as a possible retrace. If go there, it will be a sweet spot to enter shorts for me because it turned bearish again on my daily chart. I do expect 0699 before 0350/79 breakout on day chart. It still may make a wick below...
You will be regret bro if cutloss right now..if ECB have couragement to fight the inflation we may see it will be back to the upside again maybe incoming weeks to your mentioned target..
  • #101,455
  • Jun 14, 2022 4:48am Jun 14, 2022 4:48am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I was sleeping hard when you tried to wake me. Since its above 0421 with a 12 close. It could still make 0494/96. It may rise after a 0441/42 support test. After those 3 black crows, looking for a short looks best to continue. 1.02 is a wave target. 1.02 or 1.0176 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRcs_OzQb14
Not in atm. Looking to see if its a pump before release. 0568/8x is a long way from here. I'm going to see if it does pump. At 0441/42, if it supports.. It may pump. 1/2 of a normal retrace is 0494/96. If 0441/42 supports. It could hit 0496, or 0513. Maybe even test 0568. and wick to 058x
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,456
  • Jun 14, 2022 4:59am Jun 14, 2022 4:59am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Not in atm. Looking to see if its a pump before release. 0568/8x is a long way from here. I'm going to see if it does pump. At 0441/42, if it supports.. It may pump. 1/2 of a normal retrace is 0494/96. If 0441/42 supports. It could hit 0496, or 0513. Maybe even test 0568. and wick to 058x
I see its going below 0441/42. Its very bearish. It may not bounce so much. I may do better spacing little trades.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,457
  • Jun 14, 2022 5:52am Jun 14, 2022 5:52am
Quoting PipsMaster23
Caan we have the datapoints for GOLD please
Gold
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  • #101,458
  • Jun 14, 2022 5:54am Jun 14, 2022 5:54am
Eur
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  • #101,459
  • Edited 7:18am Jun 14, 2022 7:07am | Edited 7:18am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Not in atm. Looking to see if its a pump before release. 0568/8x is a long way from here. I'm going to see if it does pump. At 0441/42, if it supports.. It may pump. 1/2 of a normal retrace is 0494/96. If 0441/42 supports. It could hit 0496, or 0513. Maybe even test 0568. and wick to 058x
It closed a 1h above 0441. Now a1h close above 0455, could free up some run up. 0485 is in that ADR area (ADR at 0494). 0494/96 could be a scalp. R becomes support.. 0441 is a weak support. 0455.1 could be the same with a close above.

A pump can defy trend. I dont know why.. Maybe people like me, out the market, waiting for the pump. Maybe people like me, closing shorts and waiting is just enough to pump it. Lack of FOMO could pump it.
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  • #101,460
  • Jun 14, 2022 7:27am Jun 14, 2022 7:27am
news in 3 min.. Lets see if good or bad news run it up before FOMC. i hope to short 0568, maybe 058x, or +
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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