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The market is waiting for the US inflation data
USDCAD is correcting upwards, trading around 1.269. The Canadian currency has been actively increasing in value against the US dollar for almost the entire week; however, in the end, it lost all the gained positions, which was caused by two main factors.

First of all, the Bank of Canada released a report on financial stability, which reflected the main points of vulnerability of the national economic system. The regulator noted the negative dynamics of housing prices, which have grown by more than 50% since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic and until now. In addition, the country has recorded an increase in the number of heavily indebted households, which in the near future may face an even greater burden due to rising interest rates on loans.

The second reason for the growth of USDCAD is the strengthening of the US dollar, which reached 103 in the USD Index. In turn, market participants almost did not react to another increase in the number of Initial Jobless Claims, which amounted to 229K against 202K a week earlier. Key expectations of investors are related to today's data on consumer inflation in the US, which may increase by 0.7% over the month and remain at 8.3% in annual terms. On the global chart of the asset, the price continues to trade within a wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.2450–1.3100, having reached the support line the day before. The fluctuation range of the Alligator indicator EMAs began to actively narrow, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming new ascending bars, actively rising in the sell zone.

Support levels: 1.2630, 1.2463 | Resistance levels: 1.2730, 1.2890


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OPEC's ability to increase production has been exhausted.
Yesterday, OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said that the cartel was running out of opportunities to increase the production of "black gold." According to the official, the production capacities of the participating countries, except for two or three states, are at their peak, and in this situation, there are practically no opportunities to influence the rise in prices. Barkindo added that the market could expect even more turmoil as China recovers from a new wave of the coronavirus pandemic and boosts demand significantly. He also called for increased investment in the oil and gas sector, although the US authorities have previously called for a stop to financing fossil fuels, switching to renewable energy.

During the hearings of the US Committee on Foreign Affairs, US State Department Senior Energy Security Adviser Amos Hochstein expressed concern that India had increased its purchases of Russian oil from 100K barrels per day to 800K and urged official New Delhi to curb this trend, despite strong dependence on supplies. One of the main reasons for the observed dynamics is a significant discount for the Urals brand relative to the oil price for Brent Crude Oil. According to the official, if the country refuses to import resources from the Russian Federation, then there will be no other buyer for them, so these purchases will not look like a blow to European and American consumers who have already refused to cooperate with the Russian authorities under the sixth economic package sanctions.

Thus, there are almost no factors that can put pressure on the asset's quotes on the market now, in connection with which many experts spoke about the possibility of oil prices rising to 150 dollars or more by the end of 2022. After the breakout of the upper border of the Triangle pattern, the price works out a signal to open long positions. At the moment, indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range is actively expanding upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming rising bars high in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 122.2, 130 | Support levels: 113.8, 97.5

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ECB expects high inflation to continue
The European currency reversed and continued to decline after the European Central Bank published its decision on monetary policy. Thus, the interest rate was kept at 0.00%, and the Board of Governors announced the end of the Asset Purchase Program (APP) from July 1, 2022, to make it possible to increase the key rate by 25 basis points already at the July meeting. The regulator will not change the existing values for margin credit and deposit lines, leaving them around 0.25% and -0.50%, respectively. However, European officials do not rule out another increase in September, which will depend entirely on the inflation rate, which, according to forecasts, will remain high for a long time. According to forecasts, the consumer price index will be at 6.8% during 2022, and only in the middle of 2023 is it possible to adjust to 3.5% and 2.1% in 2024. The dynamics of the gross domestic product will also slow down – from 3.7% to 2.8%. The asset moves within a wide downward channel, approaching the resistance line. Technical indicators have sharply changed their readings and are turning in the direction of selling: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are actively approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram has formed the first downward bar.

Resistance levels: 1.0774, 1.1075 | Support levels: 1.0547, 1.0351

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The American stock market remains negative
The pressure on the American stock market is increasing against the background of the expected maintenance of inflation at the level of 8.3%, which, in turn, justifies the forecasts regarding the continuation of aggressive rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. The traders are also concerned about the slowdown in the growth of the national economy, as well as the threat of a possible recession.

In the corporate segment, the American technology company Intel Corp. suspended the recruitment of new employees in the computer chip division due to increased risks of economic uncertainty, which forced management to reconsider the capital investment plan and the functioning of the departments.

Growth in the domestic bond market continues to be a negative factor for the index. According to yesterday's auction report, 3-week and 8-week short-term Treasury bills were placed at an increased rate of 1.040% and 1.150%, respectively, eliminating the possibility of a downward correction, while global 30-year Treasuries were placed at a rate of 3.185%, significantly higher than 2.997% on the previous placement. Quotes of the index are traded within a wide downward channel, reversing downwards. Technical indicators have significantly weakened the buy signal and are actively declining: the fluctuation range of the Alligator indicator EMAs has narrowed almost completely, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming new descending bars, being in the buy zone.

Support levels: 31900, 30620 | Resistance levels: 32690, 34100

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On the daily chart, the downward wave of the higher level C of (B) develops, within which the fifth wave v of (C) develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of v of (C) has formed, a local correction has developed as the fourth wave (iv) of v, and the fifth wave (v) of v is forming, within which the wave iii of (v) is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will fall to the levels of 1.0300 - 1.0200. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0790.


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A downtrend is forming on the daily chart of the asset, which may continue with renewed vigor if the price breaks the global year’s low of 373.

On a four-hour chart, the trading instrument failed to overcome the resistance line of the global downtrend at 440 and, having reversed, is actively declining. Despite the recent upward correction, the current momentum began with a price gap, one of the key markers reflecting its strength.

Technical indicators reflect a possible reversal: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range began to actively narrow, and the histogram of the AO oscillator formed the first down bar in the buy zone.
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The New Zealand currency is declining against the US dollar. However, there is an obvious trend towards its strengthening relative to other currencies due to the publication of positive national macroeconomic statistics: after the removal of the main coronavirus restrictions, the flow of people crossing the border increased significantly, reaching 266.7K people in April, which significantly exceeds the figures of previous months and 15.9K in May 2020. Also, data on spending on credit cards were published earlier, which reflected an increase in the purchasing activity of the population. Thus, the May figure was 123M New Zealand dollars, which is 1.4% higher than the April data.

The US currency strengthened significantly, surpassing 104 in the USD Index. The upward trend was catalyzed by the publication of data on consumer prices: inflation in the United States increased to 8.6% compared to May 2021, which exceeded the analysts' forecast, which assumed that the indicator would remain at 8.3%. The US Federal Reserve did not expect the index to rise in May, but it amounted to 1.0%, significantly exceeding the consensus forecast of 0.7%, leading to an annual value increase. Such statistics mean that the US regulator will have to continue actively tightening monetary policy.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downtrend, approaching the year's low around 0.6220. Technical indicators reversed and gave a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram formed new downward bars below the zero line.

Resistance levels: 0.6410, 0.6566 | Support levels: 0.6220, 0.6070

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On the daily chart, a downward correction developed as the wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) formed, and the development of the third wave (3) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) is forming, within which a local correction is ending as the wave (ii) of i.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the GBPUSD pair will grow to the levels of 1.3148–1.3311. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2160.


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ETH USD, H4
On the four-hour chart, the Bear flag price pattern formed, which has completely completed its formation, reaching 1079.74. At this support level, sellers met resistance caused by forming a "bullish" Engulfing pattern, which included a reversal model of the Hammer candlestick analysis. In this situation, it is obvious that the asset is strongly oversold, and the "bulls" will be able to win back part of the lost positions successfully. After the breakout of the resistance level of 1429.97, the upward dynamics will continue to the area of 1746.30–2153.01. If the support level of 1079.74 is held, the quotes may go down to 898.98–565.22. ETH USD, D1
On the daily chart, the Downwards triangle price pattern has completed its formation, and now there is the formation of a "bearish" Three black crows candlestick analysis pattern, which signals a continuation of the downtrend. At the support level of 1079.74, a Hammer reversal pattern is formed, indicating a possible reaching of the base price. After successfully forming this pattern, the scenario with an upward trend seems to be the most probable. Consolidating of the "bullish" positions above the resistance level of 1429.97 will allow the asset to head higher to the range of 1746.30–2153.01.

Resistance levels: 1429, 1746, 2153 | Support levels: 1079, 898, 565



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On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) develops, within which the wave 3 of (1) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 has developed, within which the wave (v) of iii has formed, and a downward correction has started to develop as the fourth wave iv of 3.

If the assumption is correct, the USD JPY pair will fall to the levels of 128.52 – 124.48. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 135.22.



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On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level develops as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the fifth wave v of C is developing, within which a local correction of the lower level has formed as the wave (iv) of v, and the development of the wave (v) of v has started.

If the assumption is correct, the XAG USD pair will fall to the levels of 18.4 - 15.6. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 22.52.


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The pound is correcting after yesterday's negative dynamics caused by the publication of disappointing macroeconomic data, and now the GBP USD pair is trading around the level of 1.2172.

According to data for April, the UK economy slowed down by 0.3%, which led to a decrease in the growth rate to 0.2% QoQ. The negative dynamics harmed the annual GDP, which fell to 3.4% YoY from 6.4% earlier. Despite the upward correction, today's macroeconomic data did not reassure investors: the unemployment rate rose to 3.8% from 3.7% in March, and the Claimant Count Change decreased by only 19.7K instead of the expected 49 .4K against the background of correction of the average level of wages to 6.8% from 7.0% a month earlier. Yesterday, the instrument renewed the year's low at 1.2170 and is now trying to consolidate below it. The technical indicators reversed rather quickly and gave a new sell signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars.

Resistance levels: 1.2317, 1.2629 | Support levels: 1.2107, 1.1952

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Yesterday, Statistics Canada (StatCan) published data on the state of the Construction Sector, investment in which has been increasing for the seventh month in a row, adding 2.7% to 20.0 billion Canadian dollars in April. Financing for the construction of houses increased by 3.2%, and for the construction of non-residential buildings it increased by 1.4%. These data point to the stability of the real estate market in Canada, even in conditions of high inflation. Today, traders will be watching the data on Manufacturing Sales, which is expected to slow down to 1.6% from 2.5% a month earlier.

The US dollar, in turn, reached an all-time high of the year on May 12 at 104.900 in the USD Index on the back of a wave of sell-offs in risky assets, remaining stable in anticipation of today's publication of Producer Price Index data. According to forecasts, the May Producer Price Index may rise by 0.8%, which will provide an uptrend in the annual rate by 10.9%, and this, in turn, will signal a strengthening of the national currency. On the global chart of the asset, the price is trading within the wide upward channel with dynamic borders of 1.2450–1.3100, actively approaching the resistance line. The fluctuation range of the Alligator indicator EMAs is about to issue a buy signal, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming new ascending bars, actively rising in the sell zone.

Support levels: 1.2763, 1.2525 | Resistance levels: 1.2937, 1.3077

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The CAC 40 index is correcting at 6089. The French stock market continues to trade in a local downtrend against the background of the rapid growth of bonds, as well as in anticipation of another increase in domestic inflation.

Tomorrow France will publish data on inflation, which, as analysts suggest, will reflect an increase in the monthly rate of at least 0.7%, which, in turn, will lead to maintaining the annual rate at 5.8%. The quotes of the asset continue to trade within the global downtrend, falling to the lowest level of the year. Technical indicators are in a sell signal state: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator is expanding towards the decline, and the AO oscillator histogram is trading in the negative area forming descending bars.

Support levels: 5881, 5610 | Resistance levels: 6250, 6569

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The price is in a correction, a fall is possible.
On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 formed, and a downward correction develops as the second wave 2. Now, the wave (А) of 2 has formed, within which the fifth wave of the lower level 5 of (А) has developed, and a local correction has started to develop as the wave (B) of 2.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the price will fall to the levels of 26.32 – 20.82. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 43.40.
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AUDUSD, the pair may fall.
On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of C developed, and a downward correction forms as the wave (2) of C, within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the wave of the lower level i of C has formed, a local correction has developed as the wave ii of C, and the wave iii of C is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the AUD USD pair will fall to the levels of 0.6742 – 0.6446. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7235.
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EUR USD, the market is waiting for the decision of the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate
Today data on inflation in France will be published. According to analysts' forecasts, the consumer price index for May will rise by 0.6%, which will increase the rate by 5.2% YoY after 4.8% a month earlier. Yesterday, it became known that the same indicator in Germany reached a record 7.9%, adding 1.1% over the month. Sharp inflation is putting pressure on key sectors, and today's EU industrial output data will likely reflect continued negative momentum. According to experts' expectations, the value will decrease by 2.0% for April and by 1.1% YoY, which will increase pressure on the European currency.

Quotes of the American currency have consolidated after reaching the year's high, around 105.000 in the USD Index, and the market is waiting for the evening decision of the US Federal Reserve on interest rates. The consensus forecast of analysts suggests an increase in the indicator by the already familiar 50 basis points but after inflation in the United States rose to 8.6%, some experts spoke out for a sharper increase in the value by 75 basis points, which may be a completely justified action by the regulator to convince investors of the seriousness of their intentions. Also, to determine the rate for the current period, the agency will publish a monetary policy forecast for the near future. The trading instrument moves within a narrow downward channel, approaching the support line. Technical indicators strengthen the sell signal: indicator Alligator's fast EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram formed a down bar after entering the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.0498, 1.0776 | Support levels: 1.0353, 1.01

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IBM, the price may grow.
On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) develops, within which the fifth wave 5 of (1) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 5 is developing, within which the wave (iii) of iii is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 153.45 – 160 In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 125.6.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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XAG USD, silver is trying to recover positions
Silver is trying to recover from a sharp decline at the beginning of the week, when the asset retreated to local lows of May 16. Positive dynamics are due to technical factors and expectations of the US Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. Experts do not doubt that the US regulator will again increase the cost of borrowing, but the pace of tightening monetary policy is still in question. Previous forecasts suggested a rate hike of 50 basis points. However, after the data on inflation in the country for May was published at the end of last week, the agency may decide to add 75 basis points to the indicator. Additional pressure on the trading instrument is exerted by the growth in the yield of US Treasury bonds: thus, this value for 10-year securities yesterday renewed annual highs for 2022, approaching 3.45%.

The deterioration of the epidemiological situation in China also hurts metal quotes. Only two weeks have passed since the lifting of quarantine restrictions, and Beijing and Shanghai are once again forced to carry out mass testing and restrict the work of enterprises due to a new outbreak of the disease. On Tuesday, the city Health Committee reported that 25 new cases of COVID-19 infection and 38 asymptomatic carriers of the infection were recorded in the capital of the country. Analysts fear that industrial activity in China will again decline, negatively affecting the demand for silver as an industrial raw material. On the daily chart, Bollinger bands moderately decrease: the price range expands from below but not as fast as the "bearish" trend develops at the moment. MACD develops a downward trend, maintaining a fairly strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic maintains a strong downward direction but rapidly approaches its lows, indicating that silver may become oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 21.21, 21.4, 21.69, 22 | Support levels: 20.86, 20.58, 20.39, 20

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Crude Oil, decline on expectations of the "hawkish" rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve
Previously, experts predicted that the US regulator would raise rates by 50 basis points at a meeting on Wednesday, but after the release of strong data on the consumer price index for May last Friday, more investors expect a change of 75 basis points, which puts pressure on stock positions and oil. Last month, the inflation in the US accelerated from 0.3% to 1.0%, which exceeded the average market forecasts of 0.7%. The value has renewed 40-year highs, reaching a new peak at 8.6% YoY, while in April, the growth was 8.3%.

Additional pressure on the oil quotes is exerted by reports that the chairman of the US Senate Finance Committee, Ron Wyden, plans to pass a law establishing a 21% income tax on excess profits of oil and gas companies with an annual income of more than 1B dollars, which analysts perceive as excessive in these conditions.
From an even stronger fall, the trading instrument is kept by reports that Libya has almost completely stopped oil production due to the political crisis in the east of the country. Market losses are estimated at 1.1M barrels per day, although last month's production averaged 1.2M barrels per day. Libyan Oil Minister Mohammed Aoun said that almost all fields are currently closed. In turn, the limitation of oil production leads to a lack of supply, which, against the backdrop of high demand, does not allow prices for Brent Crude Oil to fall below 120. The long-term trend is upwards. In early June, the support level of 120 was broken, around which the price is now correcting, and long positions with the target of around 129 may be opened here. The medium-term trend is with the target in zone 3 (127.57–126.67). Now the price is heading for a correction towards the area of the trend's key support at 117.63–116.76, after reaching which, long positions with the first target at the current week's high at 126.20 may be opened.

Resistance levels: 129, 135 | Support levels: 121, 115.2, 107.15

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