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  • #101,421
  • Jun 11, 2022 11:44am Jun 11, 2022 11:44am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} GBP. {image}
Should you long the GBP?. I have some supports. Closing below is not bullish. 1.2307.3 could be a support. But its not below it. More so with closes below. Next week at those others with the same rules a chance to bounce may present itself. If the EU is dropping it may bring the GU down to 2226 or 2193 to test those. The same rules apply to closes. Closing below 2155.9. Is a LL. All goes out the window there, At least until those levels in magenta are closed above. Treat 2155x as eu 0786 was treated. PA has to get below it no matter what for bears to run. The inability to close below it tested, followed by close above the magenta is a rejection. Price will be forced to rise. Probably to the next level of 1/2 way to it. Each level is R until closed above. Then its supportive on a like time frame close. The lower time frames can give bad signals. Because this is big moves.

On a year chart price is already below S3. That's not a common drop. But it can go a shitload lower. In 2016 it did just that.
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  • #101,422
  • Jun 11, 2022 11:56am Jun 11, 2022 11:56am
This year so far it has gone 275 pips below S3. In 2016 it went 1450 pips below S3.
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  • #101,423
  • Jun 11, 2022 12:17pm Jun 11, 2022 12:17pm
I think i figured out why hedge funds bought the GBP.. Because that upper blue and the 2 yellow below it, were supports Tuesday. They should be royally screwed if a gap opens below 2304. A retest of 2155, and maybe much more if it breaks has a good chance.

The GBP may do worse then COT implies with a Sunday open below 2204. Its less than 8 pips lower to gap.
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  • #101,424
  • Jun 12, 2022 3:12pm Jun 12, 2022 3:12pm
Gap up?
It may back to Friday's close before week open or a real gap is happening?!
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  • #101,425
  • Jun 12, 2022 3:32pm Jun 12, 2022 3:32pm
Quoting saninvestor
Gap up? It may back to Friday's close before week open or a real gap is happening?! {image}
It's trading around 0570/60 before opening. Week open above 0570 is indicating some north to me.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #101,426
  • Jun 12, 2022 3:58pm Jun 12, 2022 3:58pm
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} It's trading around 0570/60 before opening. Week open above 0570 is indicating some north to me.
Back to 0520. No gap
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #101,427
  • Jun 12, 2022 4:09pm Jun 12, 2022 4:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
I think i figured out why hedge funds bought the GBP.. Because that upper blue and the 2 yellow below it, were supports Tuesday. They should be royally screwed if a gap opens below 2304. A retest of 2155, and maybe much more if it breaks has a good chance. The GBP may do worse then COT implies with a Sunday open below 2204. Its less than 8 pips lower to gap.
Typo,, it should be 2304...It opened above.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,428
  • Jun 12, 2022 4:14pm Jun 12, 2022 4:14pm
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} Back to 0520. No gap
0455 is boulder's day support. The open was below 0520. That's inline for a fall. Some R 0568. If it would bounce. Closing Friday below 0568 wasn't bullish to me. This open below 0520 didnt deter me,,
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,429
  • Jun 12, 2022 5:08pm Jun 12, 2022 5:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} You are here. against 0520.. This is a one year chart. It hasn't closed -0506.8/0520, depending on broker. It hasn't closed below this point since Dec 2001. That was the year of 911. Bulls need to close above. bears need to beat that close, That close, and it probably has to be below 1.0421. 0421 may be the real support. (year close wise). Still over 6 months before the year close. A new low -03xx, a year below 0520 would be a lower close. But something made it stop. I suspect it was 0421. A LL and a close below 0421 I...
Into those bigger levels again. after the week closing below 0568.
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  • #101,430
  • Jun 12, 2022 7:10pm Jun 12, 2022 7:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 0455 is boulder's day support. The open was below 0520. That's inline for a fall. Some R 0568. If it would bounce. Closing Friday below 0568 wasn't bullish to me. This open below 0520 didnt deter me,,
The next low around 0460. ... The first flag and pole targeted 0448.. Some possible stall 044x/6x.. The second pole 0369
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  • #101,431
  • Jun 12, 2022 9:54pm Jun 12, 2022 9:54pm
Some of my levels-

pivot at 0638
r2 1.0815
r1 1.0617
r 1.0573
s 1.0450
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  • #101,432
  • Jun 13, 2022 2:58am Jun 13, 2022 2:58am
Closed most here at 0462. Its dropped 200 The first pole target was about 0448 ish. I will look again if she bounces. I know 0568 may have some R. She likes 100 pips. But 0506/20 may also have R. She may not bounce... I just look to short the bounces near 0568. I may have screwed up closing early.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,433
  • Jun 13, 2022 3:03am Jun 13, 2022 3:03am
Added last one 0460. I need 0699.
I'm trying to catch the falling knife. So I may regret to do. My daily is still bullish except it close below 0456. My day level is very close to boulder's 0455. So a day close below them and I will take the loss.
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  • #101,434
  • Jun 13, 2022 3:32am Jun 13, 2022 3:32am
Possible eu sell at R 055x/7x.. I think closes below 0568 are bearish..
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  • #101,435
  • Jun 13, 2022 4:01am Jun 13, 2022 4:01am
Quoting gatorinla
Possible eu sell at R 055x/7x.. I think closes below 0568 are bearish.. {image}
This move after that Fed, and ECB news. Could have a more bearish affect. If this be the case, R at 0496 ish could be strong also, That could keep pa from reaching 055x/7x. I usually wait for a decent retrace. 0496 is not my usual minimal. Maybe a scalp at 0496, that may be held. If it drops hard from it.
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  • #101,436
  • Jun 13, 2022 4:26am Jun 13, 2022 4:26am
If pa starts closing the 1h 4h below 0458.8. My chances for a bounce lessen. I ended up placing a pending at 0495x.. With a small 3 pip stop.
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  • #101,437
  • Jun 13, 2022 6:33am Jun 13, 2022 6:33am
Quoting gatorinla
If pa starts closing the 1h 4h below 0458.8. My chances for a bounce lessen. I ended up placing a pending at 0495x.. With a small 3 pip stop.
Bears are tough.. If it can hold on close to LC, the fix may help a bounce. But this is bearish.
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  • #101,438
  • Jun 13, 2022 7:12am Jun 13, 2022 7:12am
The 1h close was a bearish close. The 4h to come next hour. Price is less than 110 pips from that 1.0340 low. It is very bearish into a large support area. Since this weeks open, its been making a small lower channel. That lower channel could be a bull flag. Or it could be a slow gradual drop. It may be best to keep stops losses risk to a minimal number or %. One could easily lose an account here. It can run either way, Momentum and fudis to me, are lower. I would be foolish to ignore this as a possible bull flag. Especially this close to 1.03xx low.

I put my pending 0495x trade with a 3 pip stop. 0568 is another spot. 0513 is even possible. I do think closes below 0568 are bearish. But that bounce to it is over 110 pips. I dont want that much risk.

0458.8 could start to be a R.
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  • #101,439
  • Jun 13, 2022 7:37am Jun 13, 2022 7:37am
The thing about a flag is, you wont know its a flag. Until it breaks out. This 30 min candle is the largest green on this chart. Its also above 1.0458.8. It hasnt broken the channel. It does have some bullish signs. PA is bearish. Nothing to deny that. I'm still targeting a 0.8 handle. It will bounce going there. I want to short those bounces.
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  • #101,440
  • Jun 13, 2022 8:07am Jun 13, 2022 8:07am
I closed earlier a few pips higher. If not i would take some off the table after this. Its bearish.. The flag formation, is still a bear channel. The 4h close above 0458.8 would of spoked me some. I still expect a drop. Out of caution of giving it all back. I would of closed some and tried to re-enter later at a higher level. I may e wrong. The wave target is 1.02, another 1.0176. I can still play those if 1.0458.8 starts to resist. Or in a bounce to one of those others. London fix may go with the 4h above 0458.8. The 4h candle was red. I just see a few things that may give a bounce.
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