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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #15,181
  • Jun 9, 2022 3:13am Jun 9, 2022 3:13am
Quoting irismonster
{quote} If I may ask (eventhough I know there're already answers in the thread but I couldn't find it!!!) How to utilize the Strat Shadow? I already got the EMA 20 and 72 up on my chart with the "shadow" colored in. I assume you use it as S/R when price comes into the "shadow" area ? Thanks in advance! Iris
Start reading through the thread and build experience slowly.
support and resistance you mark on your chart from the higher time frames or recent price action. This will also come through experience. The strat shadow is like a dynamic support and resistance. Very helpful in many ways.

Study all the charts posted and try to make sense of it all in your own way. You will build on your understanding and forge your own personal style of trading in the end. Everyone does. Dont try to copy what you see. Try to understand why it works and ask questions. The recent posts are mostly fast timeframes M5 and M1 , and that kind of trading is only a small part of the whole method.

Revisit and read the first posts ALOT OF TIMES
  • #15,182
  • Jun 9, 2022 5:27am Jun 9, 2022 5:27am
Quoting bistolis
{quote} Start reading through the thread and build experience slowly. support and resistance you mark on your chart from the higher time frames or recent price action. This will also come through experience. The strat shadow is like a dynamic support and resistance. Very helpful in many ways. Study all the charts posted and try to make sense of it all in your own way. You will build on your understanding and forge your own personal style of trading in the end. Everyone does. Dont try to copy what you see. Try to understand why it works and ask questions....
Thanks, I will try to go slowly.. can be a stubborn trying to rush things sometimes.

Question please.

1. In post #32 - Strat mentioned "Like I have said in other posts, the first thing to do is learn BASIC price action from Jim and Mike (mbqb11 Resident Elmer Fudd) at James 16. No need to read current posts just the first 200 or so pages."

--> What is being referred here "Jim and Mike (mbqb11 Resident Elmer Fudd) at James 16" ? I would like some grounding again on Price Action BASICS.

2. Here is a short video explaining the basics of PASR:
http://www.screencast.com/t/c7h0VTMRT

--> I can't seem to get the video to play. Do you have any other source for this video ?

3. What are BRNs and RNs ? I couldn't find these terms in the accronym list.

Thank you in advance.
Iris.
Iris
  • #15,183
  • Edited 6:04am Jun 9, 2022 5:47am | Edited 6:04am
Quoting irismonster
{quote} Thanks, I will try to go slowly.. can be a stubborn trying to rush things sometimes. Question please. 1. In post #32 - Strat mentioned "Like I have said in other posts, the first thing to do is learn BASIC price action from Jim and Mike (mbqb11 Resident Elmer Fudd) at James 16. No need to read current posts just the first 200 or so pages." --> What is being referred here "Jim and Mike (mbqb11 Resident Elmer Fudd) at James 16" ? I would like some grounding again on Price Action BASICS. 2. Here is a short video explaining the basics of PASR:...
I believe this is the thread https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6-chart-thread?

you dont need that video, everything is avalaible here. the only thing someone has to do is do the work. there is really no shortcut to this. you learn by doing. and then studying. there are hundreds of charts posted in here that show TEXT BOOK trades that you dont even have to try to find. these trades just present themselves. patience is a skill that can be learned and improved

look at the chart below. todays price action on NASDAQ :
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right before london open
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an M5 chart
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DOW
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you need to pay attention though to the shooting stars RIGHT when price breaks out the first time from the range in this case. that one is not tricky at all. there is resistance there. if it as much as blinks to the downside i am out.
and GBPJPY
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there was lots of editing on this post and now I dont have anything else to add. the hard work is to identify all the good trades while price is moving.
  • #15,184
  • Jun 9, 2022 10:46am Jun 9, 2022 10:46am
Hi Bistolis,

Thanks for all the pointers. I think I understand all the concepts here but putting this to practice via backtesting with historical charts still presents alot of struggle for me.

When I look at those charts in HINDSIGHT I think I understand what is going on, but when put to the test with the right edge, the chart seem to always move against my trades even in backtesting... very frustrating indeed!! Guess I need to slowly learn and read through all the posts....


Regards,
Iris.
Iris
  • #15,185
  • Jun 9, 2022 12:02pm Jun 9, 2022 12:02pm
EURO SELL OFF

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Finished as PRICE has started gapping
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,186
  • Jun 9, 2022 1:01pm Jun 9, 2022 1:01pm
Quoting irismonster
Hi Bistolis, Thanks for all the pointers. I think I understand all the concepts here but putting this to practice via backtesting with historical charts still presents alot of struggle for me. When I look at those charts in HINDSIGHT I think I understand what is going on, but when put to the test with the right edge, the chart seem to always move against my trades even in backtesting... very frustrating indeed!! Guess I need to slowly learn and read through all the posts.... Regards, Iris.
Iris,

Get a chart of D1 EURUSD and identify and mark it up from W1 and M1. Then go back as far as your data allows and do the F12 exercise and mark up your trades.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,187
  • Edited 2:14am Jun 10, 2022 1:57am | Edited 2:14am
Good morning. 50pips to start the day with a smile and more to be posted later. At the red dot would be a great entry but I wasnt paying attention while sipping my espresso.
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EDIT: I closed GBPAUD after London woke up. (out of fear mostly)
40 or so on this one
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After some bad 3 weeks, where I dont perform at all great (taking alot of small losses because I enter bad trades), I exited those 2 positions to book some solid wins to boost my confidence. If my psychology wouldnt have taken a hit , there is no reason to close those positions at those spots (according to how I plan the trades and my understanding and experience so far)
  • #15,188
  • Jun 10, 2022 2:32am Jun 10, 2022 2:32am
Missed opportunities
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  • #15,189
  • Jun 10, 2022 7:03am Jun 10, 2022 7:03am
Quoting Strat
{quote} Iris, Get a chart of D1 EURUSD and identify and mark it up from W1 and M1. Then go back as far as your data allows and do the F12 exercise and mark up your trades.
Hi Strat - its done,

I think I spent about 8 hours today to do the backtesting exercise on the EURUSD from Feb 1997 till present using the D1 tf (coupled with 1W & 1M for trends and S/R).

I used 1:1 RR ratio for simplicity so the results can be viewed subjectively.

Wins: 122 trades
Losses: 126 trades

Win rate = 49% --> Still losing money!

I think you will say do it again -- I'm thinking the same and but first abit more reading & studying this thread first perhaps.

Thanks and have a great day!
Iris.
Iris
  • #15,190
  • Jun 10, 2022 7:43am Jun 10, 2022 7:43am
Quoting irismonster
{quote} Hi Strat - its done, I think I spent about 8 hours today to do the backtesting exercise on the EURUSD from Feb 1997 till present using the D1 tf (coupled with 1W & 1M for trends and S/R). I used 1:1 RR ratio for simplicity so the results can be viewed subjectively. Wins: 122 trades Losses: 126 trades Win rate = 49% --> Still losing money! I think you will say do it again -- I'm thinking the same and but first abit more reading & studying this thread first perhaps. Thanks and have a great day! Iris.
its a good excercise. better to do it going forward though and practise on the daily. With time you will pick better and better trades
  • #15,191
  • Jun 10, 2022 10:41am Jun 10, 2022 10:41am
EURO Roll Over to September Contracts

M1 EURO

Wild ride on Globex Open which is why I always wait for the dust to settle

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NYSE Open was what BabaG would call a "Grand Ol' Duke of York" PA. The trend was clearly down but PA was up and down as PRICE made lower lows.

A breakout of the Strat Shadow soon fizzled out as PRICE started gapping and eventually closed below the Strat Shadow again but with poor PA today, I am done.

Looking back, today's PA was a TEST of trading psychology - DISCIPLINE and PATIENCE more than chart reading skills.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,192
  • Jun 10, 2022 11:15am Jun 10, 2022 11:15am
Quoting irismonster
{quote} Hi Strat - its done, I think I spent about 8 hours today to do the backtesting exercise on the EURUSD from Feb 1997 till present using the D1 tf (coupled with 1W & 1M for trends and S/R). I used 1:1 RR ratio for simplicity so the results can be viewed subjectively. Wins: 122 trades Losses: 126 trades Win rate = 49% --> Still losing money! I think you will say do it again -- I'm thinking the same and but first abit more reading & studying this thread first perhaps. Thanks and have a great day! Iris.
Good job for doing the exercise for so long. As you can see it is simple but not easy.
That thing you did for simplicity (keeping 1:1 RR) could skew the result. Trading is simple but we should not do it too simple and trade like robots.
The second most important thing after cutting loses short is letting profits run, which is really hard. It is good to lock in profits (avoiding being stopped out at loss or BE) but we need to be open to scenario that our trade will go ad infinitum in the right direction (RR 1:∞)
Try maybe the same exercise but close the trade when you will see reversal candle, not at automatically at 1:1. Base your exit on PA, in the same way you do with entry. Trail TP behind the price using D1 candles. When the candle finishes get TP under the low/above the high of the candle. See if it changes anything.
You can also try splitting the position in two parts, from which one you TP at 1:1 and TP for the second one you trail as I described above.
Trade what you see, not what you expect. BE LIKE WATER MY FRIEND.
  • #15,193
  • Jun 10, 2022 11:43am Jun 10, 2022 11:43am
Quoting bistolis
Good morning. 50pips to start the day with a smile and more to be posted later. At the red dot would be a great entry but I wasnt paying attention while sipping my espresso.{image} EDIT: I closed GBPAUD after London woke up. (out of fear mostly) 40 or so on this one {image} After some bad 3 weeks, where I dont perform at all great (taking alot of small losses because I enter bad trades), I exited those 2 positions to book some solid wins to boost my confidence. If my psychology wouldnt have taken a hit , there is no reason to close those positions...
Congrats Bistolis, great trades, I wish you that these trades boost your confidence.

I understand you, it is really hard to let profits run. What drew my attention is GBPNZD chart. In this trade you did not close the trade at pretty big BUEB but you did at the close of big bearish, which smashed this BUEB. I was wondering if you were at monitor when this BUEB occured.

Anyway good job, profit is profit. If only I could sit on my hands and take only trades like this.
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Trade what you see, not what you expect. BE LIKE WATER MY FRIEND.
  • #15,194
  • Jun 10, 2022 11:45am Jun 10, 2022 11:45am
Quoting irismonster
{quote} Hi Strat - its done, I think I spent about 8 hours today to do the backtesting exercise on the EURUSD from Feb 1997 till present using the D1 tf (coupled with 1W & 1M for trends and S/R). I used 1:1 RR ratio for simplicity so the results can be viewed subjectively. Wins: 122 trades Losses: 126 trades Win rate = 49% --> Still losing money! I think you will say do it again -- I'm thinking the same and but first abit more reading & studying this thread first perhaps. Thanks and have a great day! Iris.
I think I spent about 8 hours today to do the back testing exercise on the EURUSD from Feb 1997 till present using the D1 tf (coupled with 1W & 1M for trends and S/R).

Good - that is the dedication needed

Iris, the object of this exercise is to identify SR - the "SR" bit in PASR. Until you can consistently do this on D1 there is no point in anything else especially dropping down to shorter time frames.

I used 1:1 RR ratio for simplicity so the results can be viewed subjectively.

Not part of this exercise!

Wins: 122 trades Losses: 126 trades Win rate = 49% --> Still losing money!

Rubbish and not part of this exercise. This result is because you don't know what you are doing

I think you will say do it again

Yes and keep doing it until you can UNDERSTAND it and do it in your sleep. Like a building, this is the FOUNDATION - without this you have NOTHING to build on, be it bricks or trades.

but first a bit more reading & studying this thread

A 'bit"? You need to study and learn it all until you can anticipate what comes next.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,195
  • Jun 10, 2022 11:51am Jun 10, 2022 11:51am
Quoting irismonster
{quote} Hi Strat, Thank you for your pointers, there are 14 areas where you've drawn which I input what I understand them to be on the chart. Am I getting the right idea ? I dont quite understand candle # 12. on the chart where the candle seems to be a long legged one, not sure what this signals. Also I dont understand what the colors of the boxes mean - red and green. They don't seem to mean BUY or SELL to me. Thanks again.. I think I will be using the replay mode on historical data to simulate trading on right edge and show my results again. Cheers...
Also I don't understand what the colors of the boxes mean - red and green. They don't seem to mean BUY or SELL to me.

This tells me you need to study, study and study SR until you can see it with your eyes closed!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,196
  • Jun 10, 2022 12:10pm Jun 10, 2022 12:10pm
Quoting irismonster
Hi Strat and all veteran traders, What I have read and understand so far. The strategy of PASR (Price Action at Support and Resistance) is as follows: (Please help correct me if I understand this wrong) 1. Select Worker, Boss, Big Boss timeframes compatible with trader. Let’s say 1H, 4H, 1D. 2. Direction of 4H and 1D should be aligned. 3. Draw S/R levels on the 4H timeframe (including any swing highs and swing lows) 4. Move down to 1H timeframe and draw additional S/R levels if identified. 5. When price in 1H reaches any S/R level (and also “Strat...
1. Select Worker, Boss, Big Boss time frames compatible with trader. Let’s say 1H, 4H, 1D.

NO. You must practice on D1, W1 and M1 until you can consistently identify SR across those time frames

3. Draw S/R levels on the 4H time frame (including any swing highs and swing lows)

NO. Identify and draw SR on ALL time frames. Go back and re-read the exercises on identifying SR.

4. Move down to 1H timeframe and draw additional S/R levels if identified.

NO. Not until you have mastered D1, W1 and M1.

5. When price in 1H reaches any S/R level (and also “Strat Shadow” for more confluence), look for a. Hammer or BUOB or BUEB candles for buying opportunities (in line with the 4H and 1D trend) b. Shoot star or BEOB or BEEB candles for selling opportunities (in line with the 4H and 1D trend)

NO, ABSOLUTELY NOT! Trading is not a "paint by numbers" activity - if it was this easy, everyone would be $Gazillionaires!

7. Set Stop Loss at swing highs or swing lows or at major S/R.

NO. When you identify a Set Up/Trade, the VERY FIRST THING you do is identify how much you will lose if the Market goes 100% AGAINST you.

Set TP level for a desirable RR ratio,

NO. The Market/Smart Money does not have or know ""desirable RR ratio"", so why would you? We trade from PASR Set Up to PASR Exit.

Iris, what you did was good for where you are on the FIRST STEP of THE PATH. You have a long, long way to go BUT it will get easier as you read, study and understand. Then, your learning will increase as you start to trade.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,197
  • Jun 10, 2022 12:15pm Jun 10, 2022 12:15pm
Quoting irismonster
Took a BUY trade on a demo account on USDCAD. Reason for trade: Price broke the SR line with a Bullish Engulfing candle. Set SL to the low of the swing low and the TP just before the Resistance area (as shown in the chart) Let's see how this goes. Any advice is appreciated. Thanks! Iris {image}
Any advice is appreciated.

Iris, bistolis has given you excellent advice on your posts which is in line with my PASR method/strategy so I don't see the need to repeat them. If there are issues/concerns that we have not addressed, please advise and we will get to them.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,198
  • Jun 10, 2022 12:22pm Jun 10, 2022 12:22pm
Quoting Baniu
{quote} Hi Iris, In my opinion it is a good summary. Yes, learning the theory is only a small fraction of the PATH. The most important thing is gaining direct experience and mastering psychology. In my first attempt to become profitable ten years ago I failed, because I just couldn't discipline my mind plus I was not analyzing my mistakes. Take one step at a time, journal your trades, try to write as much as you can, what was your reason to take a trade, your thought process etc. I wish you all the best on the PATH. I will be happy to help you along...
Good advice, thank you, Baniu.

I will be happy to help you along the way.

Please help as much as possible
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,199
  • Jun 10, 2022 12:24pm Jun 10, 2022 12:24pm
Quoting irismonster
{quote} If I may ask (eventhough I know there're already answers in the thread but I couldn't find it!!!) How to utilize the Strat Shadow? I already got the EMA 20 and 72 up on my chart with the "shadow" colored in. I assume you use it as S/R when price comes into the "shadow" area ? Thanks in advance! Iris
How to utilize the Strat Shadow?

Forget about this UNTIL you understand and can identify SR. Learn PASR one step at a time in the logical manner it was laid out.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,200
  • Jun 10, 2022 12:29pm Jun 10, 2022 12:29pm
Quoting irismonster
{quote} Thanks, I will try to go slowly.. can be a stubborn trying to rush things sometimes. Question please. 1. In post #32 - Strat mentioned "Like I have said in other posts, the first thing to do is learn BASIC price action from Jim and Mike (mbqb11 Resident Elmer Fudd) at James 16. No need to read current posts just the first 200 or so pages." --> What is being referred here "Jim and Mike (mbqb11 Resident Elmer Fudd) at James 16" ? I would like some grounding again on Price Action BASICS. 2. Here is a short video explaining the basics of PASR:...
1. In post #32 - Strat mentioned "Like I have said in other posts, the first thing to do is learn BASIC price action from Jim and Mike (mbqb11 Resident Elmer Fudd) at James 16. No need to read current posts just the first 200 or so pages."
--> What is being referred here "Jim and Mike (mbqb11 Resident Elmer Fudd) at James 16" ? I would like some grounding again on Price Action BASICS.

FORGET and IGNORE this. This was written in the very early days, circa 2009, before we had our own examples. You have everything and MORE on here - there is no reason to go anywhere else
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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