Thus far I have LH at 203 but we've got support at 139 so possibility of a HL from here is there on the upside however I have resistance at 183 if 139 holds I'll have to turn bullish on this 13mins to go
It looks like regardless of the uncertainty of where price might go in the next minute or hour I'll still have to have a bias BUT always remaining flexible if I get in and out like I did today I'm leaving out so much on the table sure it issafer to trade like I did today however even if you play safe you can't completely eliminate the "what ifs" as price fools most people most of the time including me.
I'm beginning to think that I've got to have faith in my position unless price shows me otherwise and I think my problem is I don't know how that looks like exactly so I end up running trades that are in profit to losses or getting out of winning trades too early because I can't differentiate between a reversal or a retracement.
Once you have determined the direction that price might most likely go there're two things that can happen either it goes the direction that you thought it'd go or it fails and goes the other way. I just need to learn to see the difference between the two and I think I do we'll test that tomorrow.
Trend is down and there's a huge head and shoulders pattern diagonal line represents the neckline break. However I have my last low at 949 and a HL at 021 and a resistance at 052 I don't know what will happen but for now I have HL unless something else happens the takeaway is will I be able to adjust and adapt ? Can I see the signs that's all predicting won't get you anywhere responding to what iswill.
I managed to exit out of my trades prematurely AGAIN upon Tokyo open - guess what price confuses most people most of the time. Otherwise I think I did pretty well I did recognize the reversal or failure whatever you want to call it to me they're the same thing it goes the other way ! and I did manage to add on every "go ahead" which means I recognized the signals or the signs. Overall NOT BAD AT ALL.
Next challenge is to keep the winners running there were about 7 entries and I have an idea about the range and how long the move usually lasts on top of that I of course I should always keep an eye on price action because anything can happen at any minute !
today was a pretty straight forward day usually it isn't hence the losses but I'm getting the hang of it I just need a bit more time to internalize all of this.
that was 900pips move up usually is rare prior Tokyo open
anyway the main thing is it's all good when the sun is shining but in the long run can I handle the unexpected ? because a day like today happens rarely. most of the time regardless of my direction being correct a position will go against me or even a trend change can occur before failing.
I realize that there's a way to safely trade the oscillations but I've found that to be too restrictive, constantly getting in and out of a trade and change of direction confuses me yes I have extra levels drawn in between the main highs and lows but thats there because it helps me to do multiple entries.
now multiple entries and wrong timed entry can become a disaster so I need to find out a way to safely manage those positions without letting it get out of hand position sizing is something to take seriously if I want to keep multiple entries running without stop loss I have practiced for the past few days but like I said I need more time.
at the end of the day you never know what will happen and the only thing thats certain is your main levels you've got to know the trend I ride trends so that's a must!! the direction can't be wrong full stop.
and I think I've come out on top of that the trend definition as for timing I don't think you can really know for sure with 100% certainty but you've got to try if you sit aside waiting for a perfect entry there's chance that it may never happen so you have to learn to be flexible and go with the flow in trading.
to wrap it up I now know how to draw my lines and identify the trend, but I'm struggling with oscillations up and down movement within those main highs and lows at the moment I'm not sure if I can totally be in the flow what I can do however is to ride the trend not fully but getting there, not going to lie it'd be nice if I could be in the flow at all times while knowing the trend because that means not having to deal with 300pips of move go against me I don't know I still don't feel comfortable with that even though through my observations I could end those positions in the green eventually.
OR maybe this is it and I just need to learn to live with that uncertainty and have faith that as long as I'm on the right side eventually it'll all work out I'm leaning more towards this despite the feeling of unease. By chasing perfection I may end up a struggling trader forever. Every time I tried perfecting in the past I ended up becoming very rigid - and rigidity gets you nowhere in this line of work. I don't know we'll see in months time.
+100 for today not that great as far as trade management goes but I think I'm beginning to see how to trade in between the oscillations !! can you believe it that I'm only beginning to see it all now.
dow theory. what a beast it is.
like in between the main highs and lows and there's also movement its oh so complicated and difficult to put it into words movement within a movement trend within a trend.
waves upon waves and out of all these patterns develop trends forms failures occur patterns - they contract or expand and I'm only on a single time frame 1min can you comprehend the complexity if you were to combine multiple TFs and I tried combining 1h along with 1min
you must know how to trade these waves its a must ! I don't know last few days I've been drawing my levels without "forced" effort its just been effortless in some ways I know I'm not fully there but the forced effort has been gone as far as preparation is concerned trading live is a whole different beast because of the uncertainties and the complexities but today even in actual trading I just kind of traded I guess you could say in the zone although I don't have the profits to show for it the understanding was there at least a few seconds after the move has occurred where in as before my mind just went blank I would deem that whenever I reach effortless action state in live trading and when I no longer have to think so hard what action to take next when I see it and I know it deep down and have faith in my observations I'll confidently go live and I think I'm coming very close to that.
"A person is in a state of flow when they are totally immersed in a task. When a person is “in flow,” they may not notice time passing, think about why they are doing the task, or judge their efforts. Instead, they remain completely focused"
that wise a move to exit below 187 failure has occurred I tried trading the failure (I kept my previous profit but gained a little bit more) but I kept thinking I could do better! so for today I'm not going to publish that it was a mess.
each trading day my understanding is getting better and better but definitely not quite ready to go live just yet I want to be able to just push the buy/sell and exits without forced thinking and I now that I've built my understanding of the fundamentals of technical analysis I want to be able to trade intuitively.
slowly but surely I'm starting to hear that voice in my head ... the process of internalization