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On the daily chart, a downward correction developed as the wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) formed, and the development of the third wave (3) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) is forming, within which a local correction is developing as the wave (ii) of i.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the GBP/USD pair will grow to the levels of 1.3148–1.3311. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2323.



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Gold prices are holding around 1840 during the Asian session, trying to correct after a slight decline on Monday. XAUUSD remains under pressure after the release of fairly strong data from the US labor market: employment rose by 390K, which is better than the projected value of 325K, and the Unemployment Rate, instead of the expected decline to 3.5%, remained at 3.6%. The statistics highlighted the stability of the sector and its readiness to cope with the increase in interest rates from the US Federal Reserve, which may contribute to further tightening of monetary policy. In addition, the uptrend in the yield of 10-year US bonds makes the dollar an extremely attractive asset for investment.

An additional negative factor for gold is the current position of the European Central Bank (ECB). The regulator has recently been actively speaking out in favor of raising interest rates in order to curb the sharp rise in inflation. The ECB will meet on Thursday, and some analysts believe that it will announce the start of a reduction in the quantitative easing (QE) program. An increase in the interest rate, according to current forecasts, is possible in Q3 2022, provided that the situation in the markets does not change radically. Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is slightly narrowing from below, reflecting the mixed dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is declining, forming a new sell signal (trying to consolidate below the signal line). Stochastic shows a slightly more active decline and at the moment does not contradict the further development of the downtrend in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1850.2, 1869.49, 1885, 1900 | Support levels: 1823, 1800, 1775, 1752.87



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On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level develops as the wave (B), within which the wave C of (B) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C has formed, and a local correction is developing as the fourth wave iv of C.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction the price will fall to the levels of 100 – 50. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 240.2.


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On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of 5 forms, within which the wave 3 of (1) develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 is forming, within which the wave (i) of iii has formed, and a local correction is ending to develop as the wave (ii) of iii.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will grow to the levels of 1.3200–1.3410. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2417.



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Global sideways correction in the shares of the American diversified corporation General Electric Co. strengthens, and quotes are traded around 78.
On the daily chart of the asset, a wide downward channel is forming with dynamic boundaries of 70 – 88, inside which the price reached the support line and formed a new low of the year around 71.

On the four-hour chart, the instrument starts forming a reversal formation, which so far looks like a local corridor. The prospect of upward dynamics and reaching the global resistance line at 87 is a priority, which is confirmed by the readings of technical indicators: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are actively approaching the signal line, narrowing the range of fluctuations, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming upward bars, almost reaching the transition level.



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XRPUSD, H4
On the four-hour chart, there is a narrowing of the price in the side channel of 0.3572 – 0.4345, which indicates an imminent impulsive movement of quotes. The formation of a "bullish" candlestick analysis pattern Inverted Hammer above 0.3755 signals that the asset has reached a local low, while the Bullish Belt-Hold pattern emphasizes buyers' confidence. Most likely, the quotes of the token will head towards 0.4345, consolidation above, which will allow the XRPUSD pair to rise to the zone of 0.4751 – 0.5373. An alternative scenario will be relevant if the buyers fail to hold the key support level of 0.3572. XRPUSD, D1
On the daily chart, there is a formation of a Symmetrical Triangle price pattern, after which the price can go either upwards or downwards. Considering that the instrument is currently trading at the bottom at a strong support level, then most likely, the movement will be upwards, which is confirmed by the formation of a series of "bullish" Hammer patterns. In the current situation, the most likely scenario is the growth of the asset to the area of 0.4345 – 0.5373. Resistance levels: 0.4345, 0.4751, 0.5373 | Support levels: 0.3572, 0.3043, 0.2614

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 of (3) forms, within which the wave iii of 3 develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of iii has formed, a local correction has ended as the fourth wave (iv) of iii, and the development of the wave (v) of iii has started.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will grow to the levels of 1.0072 - 1.0200. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9536.


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Economic indicators disappoint investors
Against the background of the stabilization of the US currency, the GBPUSD pair is correcting within the local trend, trading around the level of 1.2545.

The expected outcome of the vote in the House of Commons, as a result of which the current Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, retained his post for at least another year, supported the pound quotes. Investors took this event as a sign of stability, and confidence in the national currency increased, but now, this momentum has leveled off, and economic issues are coming to the fore. As yesterday's statistics showed, the business activity of the main sectors is declining: according to the May report, the composite PMI fell to 53.1 points from 58.2 points in April, for the third time in a row. Service PMI fell to 53.4 points from 58.9 points in April, and this is also the third period of negative dynamics of the index. Today, Construction PMI will be published, but there, too, analysts have already predicted a drop in value from 58.2 points to 56.6 points.

The USD Index is trading at the beginning of yesterday at 102.5, almost without reacting to the speech of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Contrary to expectations, the main part of the official's speech was devoted to the situation in the oil market and the unprecedented rise in energy prices caused by the development of the military conflict in Ukraine. Commenting on the situation in the United States, Yellen noted that the current president's administration had done everything possible to mitigate the consequences of the energy crisis for the country, and without these actions, fuel prices would have been much higher. She said the 1.9T dollars stimulus package passed by the head of the White House in 2021 eliminated economic risks, leading to one of the lowest unemployment rates in post-war history. The asset tries to test the recently passed global downlink support line. Technical indicators almost canceled the sell signal, preparing for a reversal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range has narrowed as much as possible, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming new upward bars.

Resistance levels: 1.2634, 1.3000 | Support levels: 1.2452, 1.2164


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The sharp tightening of the RBA monetary policy surprised investors
The AUDUSD pair is correcting against the background of the stabilization of the USD, trading at 0.7177.

Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to raise the interest rate by 50 basis points at once — from 0.35% to 0.85%, which came as a surprise to analysts who assumed a correction to 0.60%. In an accompanying statement, the head of the regulator, Philip Lowe, said that the sharp tightening of the current monetary policy parameters was a response to rapidly rising inflation and problems with the housing market, which, according to yesterday's statistics, fell into negative territory. Thus, the number of construction permits issued decreased by 2.4% after an increase of 19.2% a month earlier, and the number of permits issued for the construction of private houses increased by 0.5% after a decrease of 3.0% in the previous month. Thus, in case of a correction in the USD, the growth of the AUD/USD pair will continue.

The US currency, in turn, is held above the 102.500 mark in the USD Index against the backdrop of an ambiguous market reaction to the speech of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, during which special attention was paid to the situation on the oil market. The official noted that the increase in gasoline prices in the country could have been much higher if the Joe Biden administration had not decided to release part of the reserves from the strategic reserve. It is worth noting that Yellen's rhetoric disappointed investors who were hoping to hear about concrete steps by the financial authorities to combat inflation, which has reached the highest values in the USA in 40 years. On the global chart of the asset, the price is trading within the Expanding Formation pattern, rising in the 5th wave. Technical indicators keep a stable buy signal, strengthening it: fast EMAS on the alligator indicator are significantly above the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms ascending bars while in the buy zone.

Support levels: 0.7158, 0.6987 | Resistance levels: 0.7264, 0.7571


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Weak statistics put pressure on the stock market
DAX 30 is correcting upwards trading at 14592 ahead of what could be the most productive European Central Bank's (ECB) meeting in 8 years.

High annual inflation, recorded in April at around 7.5%, is forcing officials to move to tighten monetary policy, the first step towards which can be taken tomorrow. According to preliminary statements by the President of the regulator, Christine Lagarde, a complete cessation of the asset purchase program may be announced, and the question of raising the interest rate from –0.50% to a positive value may also be raised. The indicator was last updated in July 2011. According to Lagarde, these measures are necessary to curb the rapid growth in consumer prices, which could exceed the 9% barrier as early as June.

In turn, macroeconomic statistics remain negative, putting pressure on the stock market. According to data for April, the volume of Factory Orders in Germany decreased by 2.7% against an expected increase of 0.3%, and the Construction PMI fell to 45.4 points from 46.0 points a month earlier. On the global chart of the asset, the price continues to implement the local Flag pattern, gradually moving away from the resistance line. Technical indicators maintain a steady buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are actively moving away from the signal line, expanding the range of fluctuations, and the AO oscillator histogram, having moved into the buy zone, forms ascending bars.

Support levels: 14350, 13540 | Resistance levels: 14836, 15710


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Trading near local highs
During the Asian session, Crude Oil prices show flat dynamics, trading near the level of 118.5 and holding close to local highs from March 9.

The instrument is supported by an increase in energy demand with the beginning of the summer season in the US. Also, investors fear that a new EU sanctions package against the Russian economy, which includes a partial embargo on the supply of "black gold," may provoke a supply crisis in the market. Demand for hydrocarbons is also rising in China, where quarantine restrictions were eased in early June, and enterprises in Shanghai resumed their work.

Investors continue to evaluate the decision of OPEC+ members to increase production volumes to compensate for existing losses in supply chains after the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions against the background of the military conflict in Ukraine. Thus, in July, production will increase to 648K barrels per day instead of 432К barrels per day predicted by analysts, which is 0.7% of world demand. Market experts believe that the unpredictable decision of the cartel members is unlikely to significantly affect the dynamics of the instrument since, even now, the largest producers, excluding Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are working at their limit.

On Tuesday, the quotes were under pressure from the American Petroleum Institute (API) report on oil stocks in the country. For the week of June 3, the indicator increased by 1.845M barrels after falling by 1.181M barrels in the previous period. On Wednesday, traders are waiting for the publication of the final report on oil reserves from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA). On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing moderately: the price range remains practically unchanged; however, it lets the "bulls" renew local highs. The MACD indicator grows, keeping a poor buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Having reached its highs, Stochastic reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating that the instrument may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 119.1, 121, 123.30, 125 | Support levels: 115.79, 113.13, 110, 107.67


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On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) developed, and a downward correction forms as the fourth wave (4), within which the wave and of (4) develops. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level v of A is forming, within which the wave (iv) of v is ending.

If the assumption is correct, the price will fall within the wave (v) of v to the levels of 178.37 – 135.65. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 228.62.


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The pair may fall.
On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of C developed, and a downward correction forms as the wave (2) of C, within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the wave of the lower level i of C has formed, and a local correction has developed as the wave ii of C.

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will fall to the levels of 0.6742 – 0.6446. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7283.



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The shares of ExxonMobil Corp., one of the largest oil companies in the world, grew due to rising energy prices and are now trading near the level of 104.

An uptrend is forming on the daily chart of the asset, within which the rate renews global highs. The price has now broken the 100.0% underlying trend level of Fibonacci extension at 99.

On the 4-hour chart, it is seen that the global growth will continue soon, and the trading instrument will try to reach the full trend of 161.8% of the Fibonacci extension around 114. This scenario is supported by the readings of technical indicators: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator expand the range of fluctuations, and the AO oscillator histogram forms rising bars high in the buying zone.


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Consolidation near record highs

The US dollar shows mixed trading dynamics, consolidating near new record highs and the level of 134 and continuing the development of the general uptrend since May 30.

The pressure on the positions of the yen is exerted by the prospect of maintaining the current soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan. While virtually all major financial regulators have moved on to sharply raise interest rates (the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to launch the program in July), the Japanese authorities are pushing for continued stimulus. Such statements were made by the Deputy Governor of the regulator Masazumi Wakatabe, who also admitted the possibility of introducing new incentives if the economic situation so requires.

Macroeconomic statistics released yesterday in Japan did not provide any noticeable support to the yen. Revised data on the dynamics of gross domestic product for Q1 2022 were revised upward from –0.2% to –0.1% in quarterly terms and from –1.0% to –0.5% in annual terms, and the Eco Watchers Survey on Current Situation in May rose from 50.4 to 54.0 points, while the forecast was for a decline to 49.2 points.

Meanwhile, the Japanese authorities announced the continuation of work in the Russian oil and gas projects Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2. The decision is contained in the national Energy White Paper. It is emphasized that in the current high energy prices, the country needs stable supplies of liquefied gas, and long-term contracts can reduce the negative effect on energy security. Mitsui & Co., Ltd. and Mitsubishi Corp. own 12.5% and 10% shares of the Sakhalin-2 project, and most of the gas produced here is supplied to Japan. Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show quite active growth. The price range is expanding, but still does not keep pace with the development of "bullish" sentiment in the market. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic has been near its highs for a long time, indicating high risks of the US dollar being overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 134.54, 135.55, 136 | Support levels: 133.7, 133, 132, 131



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Correction ahead of the ECB meeting
The European currency continues the local upward movement, which began yesterday after the publication of positive data on the state of the EU economy. Now the EURUSD pair is holding around the 1.0700 mark.

Thus, the gross domestic product for the first quarter increased by 0.6%, ahead of analysts' forecasts of 0.3% and the previous value of 0.2%. Thus, the growth was 5.4% YoY compared to 4.7% in the previous period. Today, investors will follow the course of the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). Traders expect to hear specific dates for the start of tightening monetary policy, as recently, the head of the department, Christine Lagarde, has already stated the need to raise rates and curtail the asset purchase program. Analysts believe that if the increase occurs, then not today since the ECB is not yet ready for "hawkish" steps. The instrument moves within a wide downwards channel, approaching the resistance line. Technical indicators maintain a stable buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms upward bars.

Resistance levels: 1.0778, 1.1131 | Support levels: 1.0630, 1.0351


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The pair may fall.
On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) of B formed, and a downward correction develops as the wave (B) of B, within which the wave C of (B) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C has formed, and the correctional wave iv of C has developed.

If the assumption is correct, the NZD USD pair my fall to the levels of 0.6060 – 0.5910. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6572.



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The Nasdaq 100 index shows a lateral trend, trading at 12590.
US stock indices continue to experience significant pressure from the growth of bond yields, but are kept in the sideways amid investors' expectations regarding tomorrow's publication of data on consumer prices. Inflation in May could reach 0.7% after rising by 0.3%, while the annual rate, according to preliminary estimates, could remain at 8.3% in April, which, however, is unlikely given the monthly increase in fuel prices by almost 12% and the growth of oil prices above 122 dollars per barrel. In any case, until the actual data is published, new large transactions should not be expected.

Yesterday's auction for placement of 10-year Treasury notes ended with the expected growth of yield up to 3.030% against 2.943% at the previous placement. Today, auctions will be held for the placement of short-term treasury bills from 3 to 8 weeks, as well as global 30-year treasury bonds, the rate of return on which is now 3.183% against 2.997% before. Index quotes form a global downward channel, being in the middle of the range. Technical indicators are in a state of uncertainty: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator is narrowing actively and the AO oscillator histogram is near the transition level.

Support levels: 12200, 11470 | Resistance levels: 12895, 14200


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Decline within the general market trend
ADAUSD is actively declining as part of the general market dynamics, being at 0.6448.

On the global chart of the asset, the price is trading in a stable downtrend, turning into a full-fledged trend at the end of March after overcoming the Fibonacci 61.8% full retracement level at 1.2230. However, recently the quotes have been actively rising, having reached the level of an initial Fibonacci retracement of 23.6% at 0.6400, in case of fixing above which the local growth will continue until reaching the level of a complete Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% (0.9298). Technical indicators confirm a likely upside scenario, reversing towards growth: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator have already crossed the signal line from below and began to expand the range of fluctuations, while the AO oscillator histogram has moved into the buy zone, having overcome the zero level, and continuing to form rising bars.

Resistance levels: 0.7480, 0.9298 | Support levels: 0.4546, 0.3


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The pair may grow.
On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) develops, within which the wave 3 of (1) forms. Now, the development of the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 is ending, within which the wave (v) of iii is ending.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the local correction as the fourth wave iv of 3, the USDJPY pair will grow to the levels of 138.5 – 142. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 126.45.

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