Trading the RBA interest rate decision today | Forex Factory

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Trading the RBA interest rate decision today

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 6, 2022 2:30pm Jun 6, 2022 2:30pm
Hello,

i am just curious if others are also in the startholes for the RBA event in the morning (GMT 2) and see it also as a
kind of "penalty-gift"

As the last events (BoC, BoE, Fed) were very clear to predict it was possible to make some money speculating on the rate-hikes shortly before the release.
For my part, i m going to open before the release a long position AUD/USD cause it seems to be
very unlikely that RBA is going to hike less than the predicted 0.25%

Other opinions to the rate-hike outcome?
  • #2
  • Edited 4:12pm Jun 6, 2022 3:53pm | Edited 4:12pm
Quoting Cashbear
Hello, i am just curious if others are also in the startholes for the RBA event in the morning (GMT 2) and see it also as a kind of "penalty-gift" As the last events (BoC, BoE, Fed) were very clear to predict it was possible to make some money speculating on the rate-hikes shortly before the release. For my part, i m going to open before the release a long position AUD/USD cause it seems to be very unlikely that RBA is going to hike less than the predicted 0.25% Other opinions to the rate-hike outcome?
market sometimes do funny things, buh I'll try my best not to get caught, we are together on this,
Inflation it's a hot topic for now.
I live in the future
  • #3
  • Jun 6, 2022 4:06pm Jun 6, 2022 4:06pm
OK, good luck!
  • #4
  • Jun 6, 2022 5:44pm Jun 6, 2022 5:44pm
Entered a position early Monday morning in anticipation that the RBA will rate hikes greater than or equal to 0.25. My personal Bias is they may go a little more aggressive, perhaps 0.40. I am holding the position long AUD but will expect that after the initial impulse, we will experience some profit taking.

I am in your position with you.
  • #5
  • Jun 6, 2022 6:55pm Jun 6, 2022 6:55pm
Trading the RBA Decision: tip #1 dont
  • #6
  • Jun 6, 2022 10:38pm Jun 6, 2022 10:38pm
Quoting Cashbear
Hello, i am just curious if others are also in the startholes for the RBA event in the morning (GMT 2) and see it also as a kind of "penalty-gift" As the last events (BoC, BoE, Fed) were very clear to predict it was possible to make some money speculating on the rate-hikes shortly before the release. For my part, i m going to open before the release a long position AUD/USD cause it seems to be very unlikely that RBA is going to hike less than the predicted 0.25% Other opinions to the rate-hike outcome?
Going long with AUD/JPY could be the best as JPY still on with its stimulus policy
  • #7
  • Jun 6, 2022 10:44pm Jun 6, 2022 10:44pm
The concern should be, what if the market priced in 40bps and gets 25bps instead. That could lead to a weakening rather then a strengthening of the AUD.
MWTF Return This Week: na
  • #8
  • Jun 7, 2022 1:43am Jun 7, 2022 1:43am
It worked again, small pocket monney, next time is the ECB decision Thursday
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  • #9
  • Jun 8, 2022 8:51pm Jun 8, 2022 8:51pm
Had a similar run in, price went against me overnight so was already down about $400 as the interest rate was hiked. Saw it coming in aggressive especially after the forecasts pulled in their analysis. Scaled out of the position as we moved into profits and overall took $300 off of the table. Could of been much better and smoother however.
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  • #10
  • Jun 15, 2022 11:28am Jun 15, 2022 11:28am
Today i am hunting the FOMC decission - but since everybody was talking about a 0,75 hike, a 0,50 hike would send the USD down (or not) - so its no more a clear penalty.

I will decide some minutes before the statement what i do, actually ,honestly speaking, i am not absolutely sure.
  • #11
  • Last Post: Jun 15, 2022 12:57pm Jun 15, 2022 12:57pm
I'm on the same page. I predict USD going down looking closely with a Fibonacci retracement tool,
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