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USDCAD, H4
On the four-hour chart, below the resistance level of 1.2875, there is the formation of successive Shooting Star candlestick analysis patterns, after which the asset showed a significant decrease. In the process of downward dynamics, the Three Black Crows pattern was formed, which is a model for the continuation of the "bearish" trend. Further decline of USDCAD to the nearest support level of 1.2654 is expected, fixing below which will allow the quotes to continue moving towards the area of 1.2558–1.247. An alternative scenario may be relevant in case the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.2771.
USDCAD, D1
The daily chart shows the formation of a Head and Shoulders price pattern, the Neck line of which has been overcome. The quotes tested the broken level, forming an Evening Star candlestick analysis model at 1.2875. A confirming signal of price fixing is the formed Three Black Crows pattern of continuation of the downtrend. At the moment, under the level of 1.2733, it is possible to build a Bearish Belt Hold figure. In case of successful overcoming of the support level of 1.2654, the quotes will most likely continue their decline to the zone of 1.2558–1.247.


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During the Asian session, the USDJPY pair shows ambiguous dynamics, consolidating near 127. Last week, the US dollar showed predominantly downwards trading dynamics, resulting in which the asset has renewed its local lows of April 18.

The demand for the yen is gradually increasing since the Japan Bank previously announced the first possible steps on the path to tightening monetary policy. The regulator is not going to increase the rate yet. Officials have only stated the possibility of reducing the quantitative softening program, but inflation in the country is approaching target levels, which will probably require decisive measures from financial authorities. Nevertheless, the tendency of investors to risk and news from China, signaling the further decrease in activity due to quarantine restrictions, help the yen to keep traders’ interest as a shelter asset.

The data from Japan published on Friday indicated the acceleration of the Tokyo consumer price index without taking into account food prices and energy for May from 0.8%to 0.9%, while analysts counted on a sharp deceleration of up to 0.4%. The indicator increased by 1.9% YoY, repeating the dynamics of the previous month. Tomorrow, investors expect an extensive block of macroeconomic statistics from Japan. In particular, information about unemployment will appear (it is predicted that the indicator will remain around 2.6%), the dynamics of retail sales and industrial production for April. According to preliminary estimates, sales will decrease again, from 0.7% to 2.6, which can support the national currency. On the daily chart, the Bollinger bands are moderately reduced: the price range narrows, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics in the super-short term. The MACD indicator decreases, maintaining a relatively strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line), and tries to consolidate below the zero line. Stochastic, having attempted corrective growth last week, reverses horizontally. It is better to wait until the signals from the technical indicators are clear.

Resistance levels: 127.5, 128, 128.62, 129.39 | Support levels: 127, 126.34, 125.60, 125.09


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On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level develops as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the fourth wave of the lower level iv of C has formed, and the fifth wave v of C is developing, within which a local correction of the lower level is ending to form as the wave (iv) of v.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the price will fall to the levels of 18.4 –15.6. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 23.2.


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On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) develops, within which the third wave 3 of (1) formed, and a downward correction develops as the fourth wave 4 of (1). Now, the wave a of 4 is forming, within which the wave of the lower level (i) of a has formed, and a local correction is developing as the wave (ii) of a.

If the assumption is correct, the asset will fall to the levels of 124.4 – 122.38. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 131.24.

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Brent Crude Oil prices show moderate growth, developing a strong "bullish" momentum formed last week and updating local highs from March 24. At the moment, the instrument is testing the level of 118.9.

Representatives of the EU countries, after lengthy negotiations, agreed on the sixth package of sanctions, which, among other things, includes a partial embargo on the supply of Russian oil, and also prohibits operations related to insurance of the delivery of energy from the Russian Federation to third countries. Earlier Hungarian officials opposed a complete ban on energy imports, comparing it with dropping a nuclear bomb on their economy, and Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that he would support anti-Russian sanctions only after providing guarantees on alternative fuel supplies. In the end, EU leaders still managed to reach an agreement on a partial ban that would not affect Hungary. The restrictions will affect the purchase of "black gold" supplied by sea, but will allow a number of countries to use the existing infrastructure, in particular, the Druzhba oil pipeline, through which deliveries to Germany and Hungary are possible.

The rise in prices for oil and oil products is also facilitated by the beginning of the automobile season in the US, where record prices for gasoline are fixed. The decision of the Chinese authorities also has a positive effect on the quotes: from June 1, the work of enterprises in Shanghai is resumed, and a number of restrictions on the operation of public transport and retail outlets are lifted in Beijing. Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is expanding, but it fails to catch the development of "bullish" trend at the moment. MACD indicator is growing, while preserving a rather stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic has approached its highs, indicating the risks of overbought instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 120, 122.60, 125.85 | Support levels: 118, 115.5, 114.09, 112

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The shares of Caterpillar Inc., the world's leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, are trading in a corrective trend around 217.
On the daily chart of the asset, a global Expanding formation pattern is forming, within which the price is in the stage of developing another wave of decline, with the target located at the low of the year 179.

On the four-hour chart, a downward wave is formed within a local channel with dynamic boundaries at 193 – 213. Since it is the fourth in a row, according to the classical scenario of the development of a price pattern, the probability of its complete completion is very high, which is also confirmed by the indicators: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms bars in the sell zone.


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Brent Crude Oil prices show moderate growth, developing a strong "bullish" momentum formed last week and updating local highs from March 24. At the moment, the instrument is testing the level of 118.9.

Representatives of the EU countries, after lengthy negotiations, agreed on the sixth package of sanctions, which, among other things, includes a partial embargo on the supply of Russian oil, and also prohibits operations related to insurance of the delivery of energy from the Russian Federation to third countries. Earlier Hungarian officials opposed a complete ban on energy imports, comparing it with dropping a nuclear bomb on their economy, and Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that he would support anti-Russian sanctions only after providing guarantees on alternative fuel supplies. In the end, EU leaders still managed to reach an agreement on a partial ban that would not affect Hungary. The restrictions will affect the purchase of "black gold" supplied by sea, but will allow a number of countries to use the existing infrastructure, in particular, the Druzhba oil pipeline, through which deliveries to Germany and Hungary are possible.

The rise in prices for oil and oil products is also facilitated by the beginning of the automobile season in the US, where record prices for gasoline are fixed. The decision of the Chinese authorities also has a positive effect on the quotes: from June 1, the work of enterprises in Shanghai is resumed, and a number of restrictions on the operation of public transport and retail outlets are lifted in Beijing. Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is expanding, but it fails to catch the development of "bullish" trend at the moment. MACD indicator is growing, while preserving a rather stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic has approached its highs, indicating the risks of overbought instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 120, 122.60, 125.85 | Support levels: 118, 115.5, 114.09, 112



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On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 formed, and a downward correction develops as the second wave 2. Now, the wave (А) of 2 has formed, within which the fifth wave of the lower level 5 of (А) has developed, and an upward correction has started to form as the wave (B) of 2.

If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 39.5 - 41.5. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 32.9.



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The S&P 500—short for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index—is a market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S. While it assumed its present size (and name) in 1957, the S&P actually dates back to the 1920s, becoming a composite index tracking 90 stocks in 1926. The average annualized return since its inception in 1926 through Dec. 31, 2021, is 10.49%. 2 The average annualized return since adopting 500 stocks into the index in 1957 through Dec. 31, 2021, is 10.67%. The average annual return (AAR) is the percentage showing the return of a mutual fund in a given period. In other words, it measures a fund's long-term performance, so it's a key tool for investors considering a mutual fund investment.

> The S&P 500 index acts as a benchmark of the performance of the U.S. stock market overall, dating back to the 1920s (in its current form, to the 1950s).
> The index has returned a historic annualized average return of around 10.5% since its 1957 inception through 2021.
> While that average number may sound attractive, timing is everything: Get in at a high or out at a relative low and you will not enjoy such returns.
https://i.ibb.co/m8tXtHf/sp500-3.png

The History of the S&P 500
> During the first decade after its introduction in 1957, and reflecting the economic expansion in the U.S after World War II, the value of the index rose to slightly over 800.
> From 1969 to 1981, the index gradually declined to fall under 360 as a sign of high inflation.
> During the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession, the S&P 500 fell 46.13% from October 2007 to March 2009.
> By March 2013, the S&P bounced back from the crisis and continued on its 10-year bull run from 2009 to 2019 to climb more than 250%.
> The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the subsequent recession caused the S&P 500 to plummet nearly 20%.
> The S&P 500 recovered during the second half of 2020 reaching a number of all-time highs in 2021. How Inflation Affects S&P 500 Returns
One of the major problems for an investor hoping to regularly recreate that 10.67% average return is inflation. Adjusted for inflation, the historical average annual return is only around 7%. There is an additional problem posed by the question of whether that inflation-adjusted average is accurate, since the adjustment is done using the inflation figures from the Consumer Price Index (CPI), whose numbers some analysts believe vastly understate the true inflation rate.


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The pound is trading with mixed dynamics during the morning session, consolidating near 1.2600. The day before, the British currency showed a moderate decline, retreating from its local highs of April 26, which was the market's reaction to the resumption of growth in the US dollar against the backdrop of fairly strong American macroeconomic statistics. In particular, investors drew attention to the increase in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices in March from 20.3% to 21.2%, while the Chicago PMI rose from 56.4 to 60.3 points in May, with the analysts' forecast at the level of 55.0 points.

In turn, the macroeconomic background from the UK turned out to be mixed: the volume of Consumer Credit in April increased from 1.303 billion pounds to 1.399 billion pounds, with preliminary market estimates of a decline to 1.2 billion pounds. At the same time, the Mortgage Approvals over the same period decreased from 69.531 thousand to 65.974 thousand, which turned out to be noticeably worse than expected correction to 69 thousand. Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the ultra-short term. MACD is gradually reversing into a downward plane, being located near the zero level and keeping the previous buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics, rapidly retreating from its highs, which signal that the pound is overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.2600, 1.2674, 1.2800, 1.2900 | Support levels: 1.2500, 1.2400, 1.2250, 1.2163


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On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of C developed, and a downward correction forms as the wave (2) of C, within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the wave of the lower level i of C has formed, and a local correction is ending to develop as the wave ii of C.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the asset will fall to the levels of 0.6742–0.6446. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7342.

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The shares of Pfizer Inc., one of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies, are correcting slightly above 53.

An uptrend is forming on the daily chart of the asset, and the price is holding above the support line at 49, developing a local increase.

On the four-hour chart, it can be seen that the channel with dynamic boundaries 49–57 is quite stable, and the price is approaching the resistance line, which is the main goal of the current upward movement of quotes. Since the price is in the middle of the channel, a downward scenario with reaching the support line at 49 is not excluded.

Technical indicators keep a stable buy signal, which is a priority: fast EMAs on the alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is trading in the buy zone, forming upward bars.



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Silver prices show a slight decrease during trading in Asia, developing a corrective momentum formed at the beginning of the current trading week. XAGUSD is testing 21.45 for a breakdown. Risk-driven market sentiment continues to shift to equities as yields rise on US government bonds, which investors currently prefer as alternative sources of additional funds, putting pressure on safe-haven assets such as silver. Since the dynamics of asset quotes of the metal group is inversely proportional to the movement of the US currency, XAGUSD is actively losing value.

Optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the USA provided moderate support to USD on Tuesday. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices accelerated from 20.3% to 21.2% in March, ahead of market forecasts of a decline to 20%, and the Chicago PMI strengthened from 56.4 to 60.3 points in May, while the market expected a slight decline to 55 points. At the same time, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index fell from 1.1 to -7.3 points in May, contrary to the forecast of growth to 4.9 points.

Silver, in turn, reacts positively to the long-awaited reopening of manufacturing facilities in Shanghai from June 1. Only 67 new cases of COVID-19 infection were detected in the country's largest financial center last Sunday, according to the Ministry of Health of the People's Republic of China. The authorities also eased some quarantine restrictions in Beijing. In general, the pace of industrial production in China is recovering, which increases the demand for silver as an industrial raw material. Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is declining, forming a new sell signal (trying to consolidate below the signal line). Stochastic keeps a steady downward direction but is rapidly approaching its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold silver in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 21.69, 22, 22.40, 22.7 | Support levels: 21.39, 21.12, 20.81, 20.39


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On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) of B formed, and a downward correction develops as the wave (B) of B, within which the wave C of (B) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C has formed, and the correctional wave iv of C is ending to develop.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the asset will fall to the levels of 0.6060 - 0.5910. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6718.


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The North American WTI Crude Oil price is correcting in an uptrend around 114.78.

The Wall Street Journal published an article stating the intention of some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to work out a plan to exclude Russia from the OPEC+ deal. According to experts, Western sanctions and a ban on the import of energy resources by the EU countries will lead to the fact that the production of Russian "black gold" will be reduced by 8% in 2022, and the country will not be able to support the cartel's plan to increase production.

However, investors and many analysts have already questioned the reliability of this information since a few days earlier, Saudi Energy Minister Salman bin Abdul-Aziz announced the creation of a draft new OPEC+ agreement, which would include Russia. According to the official, the organization intends to increase production if the oil demand is sufficient. He also stressed that there was no place for politics in an agreement on which the energy stability of the whole world depends.

As for the current demand for oil contracts from investors, according to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net speculative positions in the asset over the past week increased to 334.8K from 325.6K, which confirms the stable interest of traders for the seventh week in a row. The price continues to work out a stable buy signal after overcoming the upper border of the Triangle pattern. At the moment, indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range is actively expanding upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading high in the buying zone, forming rising bars.

Resistance levels: 115.85, 123.8 | Support levels: 111.77, 98.24


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During the Asian session, the USDCAD pair is growing moderately, retreating from the local lows of April 22, renewed yesterday, and is testing 1.2670 for a breakout, supported by positive US macroeconomic statistics and renewed growth in US Treasury yields.

Markets are still worried about the prospects for tighter monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. Earlier, the regulator spoke in favor of raising the rate by 50 basis points in June and July, after which some pause will be taken to assess the effectiveness of the measures taken and develop a new vector of movement. Currently, inflation has slightly decreased relative to the April peak, but prices remain close to record levels, and the near-term forecasts are rather vague. On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are steadily declining: the price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics in the ultra-short-term. The MACD indicator is going down, keeping a fairly strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic, still near its lows, is trying to reverse upwards, indicating that the USD is oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2750, 1.2800, 1.2850 | Support levels: 1.2650, 1.2600, 1.2538, 1.2500



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On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of 5 forms, within which the wave 3 of (1) develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 is forming, within which the wave (i) of iii has formed, and a local correction has developed as the wave (ii) of iii.

If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 1.32 – 1.341. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2575.



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The European currency shows mixed trading dynamics against the US dollar, consolidating near 1.0650 after two sessions of decline, which led to the renewal of local lows from May 23.

Pressure on the euro has intensified since Tuesday after the release of inflation data for May in the eurozone. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices accelerated from 3.5% to 3.8%, which turned out to be higher than the market's neutral forecasts, and the Core Consumer Price Index in May updated a record at 8.1%, while analysts had expected only 7.7%. In addition, disappointing Retail Sales data in Germany were published yesterday: in April, in annual terms, the indicator fell by 0.4% after falling by 1.7% a month earlier, although preliminary market estimates assumed a positive dynamics at the level of 4.0%, and on a monthly basis, sales fell by 5.4% after rising by 0.9% in March.

In turn, some support for the single currency is provided by the expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will launch a cycle of raising interest rates. So far, the members of the regulator's board have not agreed on any specific timing for the start of tightening monetary policy, but it is clear that with the current price pressure, this will happen soon. Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting appearance of multi-directional dynamics in the short term. MACD is reversing downwards forming a new sell signal (the histogram consolidated below the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics; however, the indicator line is rapidly approaching its lows, indicating the risks of EUR being oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.0700, 1.0747, 1.0800, 1.0850 | Support levels: 1.0640, 1.0600, 1.0500, 1.0459



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The shares of Amazon.com Inc., the world's largest e-commerce platform, show a moderate sideways correction, hovering around 2432. A global downtrend is forming on the daily chart of the asset, and after an unsuccessful attempt to break the year's low of 2027, the price reversed and began a local upward correction. On the 4-hour chart of the asset, after the reversal, the instrument has consolidated above the initial 23.6% Fibonacci retracement around 2347, and the next barrier to growth may be the 38.2% Fibonacci base retracement around 2550.

The readings of technical indicators also confirm the high probability of continuation of the corrective upward dynamics: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range began to actively narrow towards growth, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms ascending bars in the sell zone.



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On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 of (3) forms, within which the wave iii of 3 develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of iii has formed, and a local correction has ended as the fourth wave (iv) of iii.

If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 1.0072–1.02. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9536.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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