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Buy Stop: 0.6433 | TP: 0.6527 | SL: 0.6278

The European currency is relatively stable against the US dollar during trading in the Asian session and is consolidating near local highs from May 5. The day before, the instrument showed active growth, which allowed leveling the results of Wednesday's "bearish" trend and brought the euro to a high at around 1.0600. EUR/USD was supported yesterday by expectations of the imminent end of quarantine due to the coronavirus in Shanghai, which will allow many enterprises to resume normal operation and have a positive effect on the dynamics of foreign trade.

In turn, yesterday's macroeconomic data from the US put moderate pressure on the positions of the US currency. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended May 13 increased from 197 thousand to 218 thousand, which was higher than market expectations by 18 thousand. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index declined sharply in May from 17.6 to 2.6 points, while analysts expected the decline to only 16 points.

The Minutes of the European Central Bank (ECB)'s meeting released the day before also contributed to the moderate growth of the single currency. In the report, the regulator pointed to the increasing risks associated with a sharp growth in inflation in the region, but at the same time maintained optimistic forecasts for both Q3 and Q4 of 2022. Also, many members of the ECB board are gradually speaking out in favor of tightening monetary policy. Analysts consider the rate hike at the end of summer or early autumn as most likely. Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is slightly expanded from above, remaining spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic approached the level of "80" and reversed into a horizontal plane, reflecting the mixed nature of trading at the end of the current trading week.

Resistance levels: 1.06, 1.064, 1.069, 1.0726 | Support levels: 1.05, 1.0459, 1.04, 1.035


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The shares of Tesla Inc., the world's leading manufacturer of electric cars, continue their global correction, trading at 709.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving within the global Expanding formation pattern with dynamic extremes at 1150–500. At the moment, the instrument is forming the fifth wave of the pattern, which is one of the two most probable waves.

On the four-hour chart, the rate can already break the low of the third wave at 700 today, which will be a signal to continue the downward movement. The readings of technical indicators confirm the likelihood of a decline: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are actively moving away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming bars with a downward trend in the sell zone.


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After reaching a critical point around 0.6220, the NZD/USD pair went into correction under the influence of a temporary weakening of the US dollar and against the backdrop of rising commodity prices.

All commodity currencies show a strong recovery from yesterday's low, while commodities are becoming more expensive. Oil quotations increased by 3–4%, while benchmark prices for WTI Crude Oil are at 110 dollars per barrel. US gasoline futures rose above 4 dollars per gallon for the first time, putting additional pressure on consumers ahead of the summer driving season.

Traders are focusing on next week's Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting, where many expect the regulator to raise rates by 50 basis points, which could push the New Zealand dollar to 0.6555. However, the long-term trend for the instrument remains downwards. At the moment, a correction is developing, within which the asset is trying to break through the resistance level of 0.6420, after which the growth will continue with the target at 0.6555. If the "bears" hold this level, then the decline is likely to continue to the month's minimum at around 0.6220.
The medium-term trend is trying to reverse upwards. If this week the trading closes above 0.6360, then the trend change will be consolidated, and the instrument will rise to the target zone 2 (0.6500–0.6486).

Resistance levels: 0.642, 0.6555, 0.672 | Support levels: 0.622, 0.595


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USDCHF, D1
On the daily chart, the price is actively correcting downwards from the 1.0025 area. Currently, it is close to 0.9675 (retracement of 38.2%). Its breakdown will give the prospect of further decline to the levels of 0.9565 (retracement of 50.0%) and 0.9460 (retracement of 61.8%). However, the price will have to break through the descending fan. The repeated consolidation of quotations above the level of 0.9810 (retracement of 23.6%) may lead to a return to the area of 1.0025. Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands are directed upwards, the MACD histogram is shrinking in the positive zone, and the Stochastic has entered the oversold zone, which does not exclude a reversal.

USDCHF, W1
On the weekly chart, the price has reversed near the upper boundary of the ascending channel and is also declining. Quotes are close to the level of 0.9670 (retracement of 61.8%), consolidation below which will give the prospect of a decline to the levels of 0.9510 (retracement of 50.0%), 0.9350 (retracement of 38.2%). Otherwise, the quotes will be able to return to the area of 1.0000. Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands are directed upwards, the MACD histogram is increasing in the positive zone, but the Stochastic is preparing to leave the overbought zone and form a sell signal. In general, in the near future, with a breakdown of the level of 0.9670 (retracement of 38.2%, D1, 61.8%, W1), it is possible that the price will continue to decline to the levels of 0.9565 (retracement of 50.0%, D1), 0.9510 (retracement of 50.0%, W1), 0.9460 (retracement of 61.8%, D1). If the level of 0.9810 breaks out (retracement of 23.6%, D1), growth will be able to resume to 1.0025 (retracement of 0.0%, D1).

Resistance levels: 0.9810, 1, 1.0025 | Support levels: 0.9670, 0.9565, 0.9510, 0.946


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On the daily chart, the wave A of the higher level formed, and a downward correction develops as the wave B. Now, the wave (А) of B has formed, the correction (B) of B has developed, and the wave (C) of B is forming, within which the fifth wave of the lower level 5 of (C) is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 132.95 - 80.22. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 206.31.

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The pound shows the uptrend in trading with the US currency during the morning session, testing the level of 1.2550 for a breakout and updating local highs from May 5. The strengthening of the British currency at the beginning of the week is facilitated by the growth of corrective sentiment for the US dollar against the backdrop of a noticeable decrease in the yield of US Treasury bonds.

Also, traders are still taking a lead from relatively optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the UK on Friday, which turned out to be significantly better than negative forecasts. In April, Retail Sales added 1.4% after falling by 1.2% a month earlier, although analysts had expected a decline of 0.2%. In annual terms, the indicator showed a sharp drop of 4.9% after increasing by 1.3% in March, while preliminary market estimates suggested a more active decline of 7.2%. Retail Sales excluding Fuel increased by 1.4% MoM, but decreased by 6.1% YoY, while the forecast was for a contraction of 0.2% MoM and 8.4% YoY.

Today, statistics on housing prices in the UK were released. Rightmove House Price Index increased by 2.1% in monthly terms and by 10.2% in annual terms, which turned out to be slightly higher than the previous values at the levels of 1.6% MoM and 9.9% YoY. In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD indicator is growing keeping a buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic shows an unsteady uptrend, but is located in close proximity to its highs, which points to the risk of overbought GBP in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.26, 1.2674, 1.28, 1.29 | Support levels: 1.2500, 1.24, 1.2250, 1.2163

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On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (1) of C developed, and a downward correction forms as the second wave 2 of (1) of C. Now, the wave of the lower level a of 2 is developing, within which the correctional wave (ii) of a has ended.

If the assumption is correct, the price will fall within the wave (iii) of a to the levels of 82.3 - 67. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 131.17.


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Global sideways correction in the shares of the American diversified corporation General Electric Co. strengthens, and papers are traded slightly above 75.
On the daily chart of the asset, a wide downward channel with dynamic boundaries of 71 - 90 forms, within which the price has reached the support line and renewed the year’s low around 71.

On the four-hour chart, the price is heading upwards and begins to form a Head and shoulders reversal pattern, which target for working out is around the global channel resistance line 90. The readings of technical indicators confirm the high probability of upward dynamics: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are actively approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming new rising bars in the sell zone.


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The BTCUSD pair is moving in a long-term downtrend, but last week it stabilized within 31000–28700. The first investor reaction to the rapid decline of the UST stablecoin and the LUNA coin has passed. Therefore, monetary factors have again begun to have the most important influence on the market, which are currently balancing each other, preventing the price from moving to a new serious movement.

On the one hand, the expected "hawkish" position on the issue of tightening the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve puts pressure on the stock market, and after it, on the cryptocurrency sector since they are seriously correlated. On the other hand, a sharp increase in rates increases the risks of a recession in the US economy, as the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, has already warned about. In this regard, traders may once again turn to cryptocurrencies as an alternative for capital preservation. However, most experts expect that the pressure on the cryptocurrency market may continue in the future, and Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz even allowed it to fall by 70%. The zone 30000–31500 seems to be the key for the "bulls," supported by the middle line of Bollinger bands. If it is broken, the upward dynamics may continue to 34375 (Murrey [3/8]) and 37500 (Murrey [4/8]). The key "bearish" level is 28125 (Murrey [1/8]), consolidation below which will ensure further decline to 25000 (Murrey [0/8]) and 21875 (Murrey [–1/8]).

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the downward reversal of Bollinger bands indicates the continuation of the downward trend but the upward reversal of Stochastic and the reduction of the MACD histogram in the negative zone does not exclude a limited price growth.

Resistance levels: 31500, 34375, 37500 | Support levels: 28125, 25000, 21875

On the daily chart, the wave A of the higher level developed, and a downward correction forms as the wave B, within which the wave (А) of B develops. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level 5 of (А) is forming, within which the third wave iii of 5 has developed.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the local correction iv of 5, the price will fall to the levels of 80 - 62.5. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 126.86.



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Nasdaq 100 quotes show a downtrend, being at around 11970.0. US stocks remain under strong pressure from rising bond yields, which is especially affecting technology stocks.

Since the start of the week, the popular 10-year US Treasury bonds yield has risen 1.34% to hit the levels of autumn 2018 of around 2.824%. Conservative 20-year government bonds rose 0.92% to 3.2094%, while short-term 3-month bonds, which will be auctioned today, rose 2.48%.

The focus today is on the financial results of discount department store chain Ross Stores Inc., which recorded a decline in quarterly revenue to 4.33 billion from 5.02 billion dollars in Q4 2021. In turn, earnings per share fell below 1 dollar for the first time since March 2021, to 0.97 dollars. Against the background of such a weak report, the issuer's capitalization decreased by more than 22%. Index quotes form a global downward channel, being near the support line. Technical indicators are in a stable sell signal state: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator is expanding towards the decline, and the AO oscillator histogram is trading in the negative area forming new descending bars.

Support levels: 11690, 10500 | Resistance levels: 12580, 14200


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After setting a 19-year high, USDJPY is correcting and testing a strong support level at 127.1 against the backdrop of a depreciation of the dollar. Due to the radically different approach in the conduct of monetary policy by the regulators of Japan and the United States, the instrument is likely to continue to strengthen in the long term; however, at the moment, waiting for the decision of the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate, scheduled for June 15, quotes are declining with the target at 124.5. It is expected that the indicator will be increased by 50 basis points to 1.50%.

The decision of the US Fed will largely be influenced by the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the publication of which is expected on Wednesday at 20:00 (GMT+2). If the document indicates that the US labor market will continue to recover as a result of an increase in rates, then the dollar is likely to resume growth after the correction; otherwise, the US currency will continue to decline until mid-June. The rate of USDJPY will largely be determined by the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, since the wait-and-see position of the Bank of Japan, which is not ready to move to a rate increase, is already known to investors. The long-term trend is upward. At the moment, a correction is developing, within which market participants are trying to break through the level of 127.1, in case of consolidating below which the correction will continue with the target at 124.50, after which a new growth cycle can be expected.

The medium-term trend remains upward, but the first signs of its change are appearing. Last week, market participants tested the key trend support at 127.98–127.65, which was held, leading to the growth of USD/JPY. By the end of the week, the entire growth was offset by sales. Now the price is trying to consolidate below the key support, and if the sellers succeed, the trend will change to a downtrend, and the target zone 2 (124.78–124.47) will become the target for the decline.

Resistance levels: 131.1, 133.36, 135.07 | Support levels: 127.1, 124.5, 121.5


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On the daily chart, the downward wave of the higher level C of (B) develops, within which the fifth wave v of (C) develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of v of (C) has formed, and a local correction is ending to develop as the fourth wave (iv) of v.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the pair EURUSD will fall to the levels of 1.03 - 1.02. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0868.

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Gold prices show a slight increase during the morning session, developing a fairly strong "bullish" momentum formed in the middle of last week and trading at 1855.9. The main driver of the instrument's recovery was the weakening USD Index, which sharply corrected from multi-year highs around 105, losing more than 2.5%, to a low of 102, despite the "hawkish" rhetoric of the US Fed members.

Demand for XAU/USD is holding up as global tensions escalate as fundamentals change little. Many economies are facing record inflation amid soaring prices for energy and other resources, forcing investors to look for safer alternatives to risky assets. In turn, rising inflation prompts the world's central banks to sharply tighten monetary policy, making gold ownership less attractive, since it does not generate interest income. Meanwhile, a special military operation in Ukraine continues, and the negotiation process is actually stopped, so the conflict is becoming more and more protracted.

Today, investors are waiting for the publication in the US of May statistics on business activity, as well as April data on the dynamics of New Home Sales. During the day, the Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, is also scheduled to speak. Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate active decrease. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD indicator is growing, while preserving a rather stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic approached the level of "100" and reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating a strongly overbought instrument in the ultra-short term and signaling in favor of the development of a corrective decline.

Resistance levels: 1877.83, 1900, 1930, 1952.53 | Support levels: 1850.2, 1823.09, 1800, 1775


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On the daily chart, a downward correction developed as the wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) formed. Now, the development of the third wave (3) is starting, within which the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the pair GBPUSD will grow to the levels of 1.3148–1.3311. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2161.

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The NZDUSD pair has stopped its upward trend and is correcting downwards around 0.6432 due to today's poor macroeconomic data.

Statistics New Zealand (Stats NZ) reported that total Q1 retail sales corrected by 0.5% after rising by 8.8% in the last quarter of 2021 amid a 4.0% decline in car sales and a decline in the construction sector by 5.5%, while the segment of electrical goods added 2.7%. It brings the total value of goods purchased to 28.4B New Zealand dollars, up 8.0% from March 2021, but the sharp decline quarter-on-quarter sent a negative signal to investors.

The USD Index declines to 102.2 amid US President Joe Biden's recent announcement that a possible waiver of customs duties on goods of 25% from China is under consideration, and the final decision will be made after consultations with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. According to some experts, the current Asian tour of the head of the White House may be a sign of an imminent change in policy towards the two countries, which will be a serious step towards establishing trade ties between the US and China. The instrument moves within the global downward channel, forming a new wave of corrective growth. Technical indicators keep a weakening sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator approach the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms upward bars.

Resistance levels: 0.6535, 0.6858 | Support levels: 0.6348, 0.6208


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Attachment gThe ETHUSD pair is consolidating around 2000 for the second week in a row, being in a state of uncertainty under the influence of a number of opposite factors. The general pressure on the cryptocurrency sector has traditionally been exerted by the tightening of monetary policy in the USA: a sharp increase in rates strengthens the position of the US currency in relation to alternative assets.

On the other hand, a serious drop in asset quotes is hindered by the imminent transition of the Ethereum network to Proof-of-Stake (PoS), the preparation for which is nearing completion. The main Ropsten test network will be switched to the new algorithm on June 8, after which, in the absence of failures, the developers will announce the date of transition to PoS and the main Ethereum network. The approximate launch date, according to leading specialist Preston Van Loon, is considered to be August of this year. This information was also confirmed by the founder of Ethereum Vitalik Buterin. During the ETH Shanghai summit, he said that the network's transition to PoS could take place at the end of summer, but did not rule out a postponement to September-October in case of technical problems. It is assumed that after the transition of Ethereum to a new confirmation algorithm, the production of ETH, and after it, the supply of the token on the market will sharply decrease, which should lead to positive dynamics of the cryptocurrency. The most optimistic experts predict a price increase after switching to PoS to 5К dollars for one ETH coin.Attachment gThe price of the ETHUSD pair continues to consolidate around 2000 (Fibonacci retracement of 61.8%). To start a serious growth, the quotes will have to consolidate above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands in the area of 2188. In this case, the growth will continue to the levels of 2500 (Murray [4/8], Fibonacci retracement of 50.0%) and 2812.5 (Murray [5/8]). If the level of 18750 (Murray [2/8]) breaks down, the quotes will fall to the level of 1562.5 (Murray [1/8], the lower line of the descending channel).

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, which indicates the continuation of the downward trend, but the Stochastic is reversing upwards, and the MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 2188, 2500, 2812.5 | Support levels: 1875, 1562.5


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On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of 5 forms, within which the wave 3 of (1) develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 is forming, within which the wave (i) of iii has formed, and a local correction has developed as the wave (ii) of iii.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will grow to the levels of 1.32 – 1.341. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2743.


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The European currency shows a slight decrease against the US dollar during the Asian session, correcting after the "bullish" start of the week, which led to the renewal of local highs for the instrument from April 25. Quotes are still supported by the moderate weakness of the dollar, which reacts negatively to the publication of mixed macroeconomic statistics. In addition, investors positively assessed the rhetoric of the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde, who actually announced the imminent completion of the quantitative easing program and a possible increase in interest rates by 50 basis points in July.

Traders also assess the statement of the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who announced a number of steps to reduce the EU's dependence on Russian energy resources. The authorities intend to accelerate the transition to "green" energy, increasing the current target values from 9% to 13% by 2030. In particular, the construction of solar roofs in new buildings is proposed. About 300 billion euros will be needed for energy reforms, of which about 72 billion euros will be grants and 225 billion can be obtained in the form of loans. Up to 2 billion euros will be needed for oil infrastructure, taking into account the cessation of shipments of Russian oil. Meanwhile, macroeconomic statistics from the euro area, released the day before, turned out to be negative. Markit Services PMI fell from 57.7 to 56.3 points, which turned out to be worse than market expectations for a reduction to 57.5 points. Composite PMI fell from 55.8 to 54.9 points, which also turned out to be weaker than market forecasts at the level of 55.3 points. Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is expanding but it fails to conform to the surge of "bullish" activity at the moment. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). The indicator is trying to consolidate above the zero level. Stochastic, having reached its highs, reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating overbought EUR in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.0747, 1.08, 1.085, 1.09 | Support levels: 1.07, 1.064, 1.06, 1.05


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