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Guppy's Multi-Moving Average (GMMA)

  • #541
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  • May 15, 2022 11:20pm May 15, 2022 11:20pm
sagar, will you be kind and attach some of your charts with entry and exits points and use of tdi. i have no experience with tdi and am eager to learn
  • #542
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  • May 16, 2022 12:23am May 16, 2022 12:23am
Quoting walvekarraje
sagar, will you be kind and attach some of your charts with entry and exits points and use of tdi. i have no experience with tdi and am eager to learn
Sure Rajesh.
My 1st trade on every Monday is after Frankfurt open as, in my experience, its just weekend effects / whipsaws and wicks before that. Last trade by 4 hours into London on Friday (and close by London close), as I do not wish to carry forward any trades into weekends. I trust in having positive balance sheet at the weekend, not necessarily all trades to be closed in positive. To be precise, I might have made about 600$ profit by Friday evening and have about 55$ in running loss. By London close I will close this trade and live weekend peacefully (545$ net profit) rather than having an open trade and losing whole weekend with family.
Cheers
  • #543
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  • May 16, 2022 3:35am May 16, 2022 3:35am
Quoting walvekarraje
sagar, will you be kind and attach some of your charts with entry and exits points and use of tdi. i have no experience with tdi and am eager to learn
Here ...
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  • #544
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  • May 16, 2022 7:10am May 16, 2022 7:10am
GU long. Reasons, same as EU. Target 25 pips, just below today H.
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  • #545
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  • May 16, 2022 10:18am May 16, 2022 10:18am
any one watching DOW chart. this is situation on H4 now

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look at perfect retracement on fib. almost to the pip.
if the current candle or next candle closes below 10 ema channel and both rsi below 50, it will be a good opportunity to go short.
  • #546
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  • May 17, 2022 6:37am May 17, 2022 6:37am
took a bubble burst trade today.
look at this chart of Voltas
daily chart shows sudden fall in price after a consolidation. fall is sudden, sharp, in very short time.
the price has moved far away from LT GUPPYS also from 10 ema channel.
rsi 6 has gone way below 20 during the price fall and today ( last bullish candle) it has crossed 20 fron below up, also crossed rsi 12.
the MACD has formed a hook.
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now on H1 chart where i entered the trade at the close of the candle...1) close above 10 ema channel. 2) channel is blue in color confirming uptrend. 3) both rsi are above 50 and rsi6> rsi12. 4) macd cross below 0 much earlier signifying uprtend.
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at the end of the trading session i am in significant profit. will watch this trade closely with trailing stoploss as this is a counter trend trade
  • #547
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  • May 17, 2022 6:55am May 17, 2022 6:55am
my second trade today on NIFTY ... exactly same principle as above
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  • #548
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  • May 17, 2022 7:20am May 17, 2022 7:20am
Quoting walvekarraje
my second trade today on NIFTY ... exactly same principle as above {image}{image}
Copy book CT trades, perfect Rajesh
  • #549
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  • May 18, 2022 5:54am May 18, 2022 5:54am
Quoting Spudfan
.... Then, you [Sagar] made a comment about using TDI and it sparked a memory for me of Big E's thread (Trading Made Simple) in its early days and before it got hijacked by others, one in particular. So, in spite of my saying I prefer a simple chart and that I get distracted by indicators, I've been spending recent days working with bits and pieces from Big E's thread and from this thread and have come up with something that is looking promising. It uses Rajesh's 10 EMA channel, Big E's "5-method" and the TDI. I've been backtesting it carefully...
I have worked out what I was attempting here and I have an analogy for it. A ladder has side rails and rungs or steps. It doesn't work if either of these are missing. The GMMAs are like the side rails - very useful for identifying a trend and the reliability of that trend as it progresses. But, as already discussed earlier in this thread, Daryl Guppy did not give any guidance on the specifics of entering or exiting trades. The Walkvekar method is an excellent solution to this. It adds the rungs to some very good side rails. My little diversion was to remove the side rails and see how the rungs work on their own. Not very well, although I was lucky and lost only about 47 pips on Monday. I soon saw the folly of what I was doing (and the difficulty of doing it that way) and re-introduced the GMMAs. On Tuesday I went back into profit and today is looking moderately good so far.

Will keep you posted, but at least what I am doing belongs in this thread again.
  • #550
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  • May 18, 2022 7:06am May 18, 2022 7:06am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} I have worked out what I was attempting here and I have an analogy for it. A ladder has side rails and rungs or steps. It doesn't work if either of these are missing. The GMMAs are like the side rails - very useful for identifying a trend and the reliability of that trend as it progresses. But, as already discussed earlier in this thread, Daryl Guppy did not give any guidance on the specifics of entering or exiting trades. The Walkvekar method is an excellent solution to this. It adds the rungs to some very good side rails. My little diversion...
I have observed that you predominantly trade 4h. Try and add scalping to your Armory.
You will be surprised to know how consistently you can keep banking 10 pips / trade. Grows the account balance.
Cheers
  • #551
  • Quote
  • Edited 2:08pm May 18, 2022 11:59am | Edited 2:08pm
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} I have worked out what I was attempting here and I have an analogy for it. A ladder has side rails and rungs or steps. It doesn't work if either of these are missing. The GMMAs are like the side rails - very useful for identifying a trend and the reliability of that trend as it progresses. But, as already discussed earlier in this thread, Daryl Guppy did not give any guidance on the specifics of entering or exiting trades. The Walkvekar method is an excellent solution to this. It adds the rungs to some very good side rails. My little diversion...
That's better. I have just closed all my trades for the day and came out with close to 3% growth on balance.

I'm using GMMAs for trend, Big E's 5 EMA (Shift 3, Typical Price) for trade signals in conjunction with the TDI indicator (which I have noticed is very close to the RSI 12/6). I also have the 10 EMA channel on my chart because it is useful to indicate whether price is moving or not depending whether it is mainly inside the channel or outside. The main difference with the Walvekar method is that I don't wait for a pullback - just go for it any time the GMMAs show a trend is in place and the 5 EMA (3,3) gives a signal, as long as price action allows it. But otherwise it's all along similar lines.
  • #552
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  • May 19, 2022 2:42am May 19, 2022 2:42am
Spudfan,
Yesterday's example of my scalp trades. 23 trades, from 2nd hour into Tokyo till London close. Check total number of pips.
Do think about it, small water drops make a Mighty Ocean ...
Cheers.
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  • #553
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  • May 19, 2022 6:15am May 19, 2022 6:15am
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trade carried for tomorrow
  • #554
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  • May 20, 2022 12:51am May 20, 2022 12:51am
Why do traders loose money?
Why do I do Predictive / Top down Analysis on every weekend?
Why these 2 questions at the same time?
I will try and explain my experience.
Why do trades loose money, when market does ONLY three things? Rallies up, Sells off and consolidates. Compare these just 3 parameters to an aircraft cockpit instruments. Ask our resident doctor Rajesh on how many complex instruments they use and what all, how fast and accurate they have to analyse to save a life.
But still, having to observe only 3 parameters, majority of traders loose. WHY? In my experience, traders loose because they cannot decide / judge either to be a buyer or a seller or to be on sidelines. They are in confusion as there is no home work or class work done in the holidays (weekend’s) for the exam on trading days. And confusion is not good for any trader. Absolute clarity of thoughts and actions needed to make consistent profits in the market.
Someone might ask how the predictive analysis solves this dilemma / enigma. After I do predictive analysis for all the pairs that I scan, I decide my bias for the whole week. For each pair, I decide either to be a buyer or seller or be on the sidelines for the whole trading week. Thereby, I’m eliminating the biggest confusion / chaos. Once I decide my bias, I invalidate all opposite trading signals and trade only those set up’s that support my bias. For an example, my bias for EU / GU and AU for this week is to be a buyer only. So, whenever I saw buy signals, right from 5m to 1h, I was on buying spree. Whenever market offered a sell signals in these pairs, I invalidated / ignored all those signals. Someone might say, I might loose number of trades and pips. What big deal? I’m not sprinting 100 metres for an Olympic gold at all.
We are all slaves of our habits. Good plans, actions and efforts instil good habits. Opposite is true for bad plans, actions and efforts.
In a 7 trillion $, 24/5 market, we can only be early in the market, never ever late. That being the case why be trigger happy and loose? By losing consistently, it affects wrong side of our mental equilibrium. Whenever I get a trade-able set up, I do not trade very next candle after the so called mother / trigger candle. I wait for one more candle to close in the same direction to make sure, it is a proper trade-able set up, not a fake signal.
My 1st trade on every Monday is after London opens as in my experience, it is just weekend effects / whipsaws / wicks. My last trade on every Friday is 3 hours into London, not later. I trust in positive weekly balance sheet, not necessarily all positive trades. I close all the open trades by London close on Friday and spend weekend time with family. I trade for my family you see.
I do not trade a pair which has moved equal to ADR or more. I do not trade a pair which has moved more than 200% of ADR previous day, as it will just consolidates next day.
I trade only 1 pair at any time for better trade management.
I plan my trades and stick very religiously with my trade plans.
Hope, this lengthy post helps someone.
Cheers.
  • #555
  • Quote
  • May 20, 2022 1:00am May 20, 2022 1:00am
Quoting sagar1983
Why do traders loose money? Why do I do Predictive / Top down Analysis on every weekend? Why these 2 questions at the same time? I will try and explain my experience. Why do trades loose money, when market does ONLY three things? Rallies up, Sells off and consolidates. Compare these just 3 parameters to an aircraft cockpit instruments. Ask our resident doctor Rajesh on how many complex instruments they use and what all, how fast and accurate they have to analyse to save a life. But still, having to observe only 3 parameters, majority of traders...
Wah.... Dil Khush Ker Diya.... You made my day dear.... God Bless you.
  • #556
  • Quote
  • May 20, 2022 2:15am May 20, 2022 2:15am
Quoting sagar1983
Why do traders loose money? Why do I do Predictive / Top down Analysis on every weekend? Why these 2 questions at the same time? I will try and explain my experience. Why do trades loose money, when market does ONLY three things? Rallies up, Sells off and consolidates. Compare these just 3 parameters to an aircraft cockpit instruments. Ask our resident doctor Rajesh on how many complex instruments they use and what all, how fast and accurate they have to analyse to save a life. But still, having to observe only 3 parameters, majority of traders...
This is one of those posts that stops everything in its tracks. Thank you Sagar. It's good that it comes before the weekend - something to work on and think about.

Would you mind explaining how you do your analysis to decide on bias?
  • #557
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  • May 20, 2022 2:45am May 20, 2022 2:45am
How does this look? It's on the daily so a fairly long-term breakout might be happening next week.

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  • #558
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  • Edited 3:25am May 20, 2022 3:06am | Edited 3:25am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} This is one of those posts that stops everything in its tracks. Thank you Sagar. It's good that it comes before the weekend - something to work on and think about. Would you mind explaining how you do your analysis to decide on bias?
I go to D and zoom out till I can see about 2/3 years history ONLY, reason being I'm not interested in what PA did decades ago. Recent PA is more important to analyze present PA. I go beyond only when D does not give you any clarity or it is beyond MT4 terminal, as the case now with GU / EU and EU.
Observe the relation of PPA with TDI oscillator. I'm not that keen on TSL (traders signal line) in TDI, only Oscillator in TDI. I might again go beyond D if oscillator is way above / below 80/20 levels. I have added 80 and 20 levels for my personal comfort, though initial TDI settings were 68 and 32.
On D, I draw lines on KPL's. I'm always more interested in those zones, which have been both R and S in recent past.
I do same exercise on 4h also. and I will be more keen on those lines which appear both in D and 4h as they represent strongest KPL zones.
Only 15 days ago, I added LT Guppy, can not comment yet on how I might use them. But general idea is to use how you use.
I posted, why I'm bullish on GU, along with charts, 3/4 days ago.
But in general, these are my entry rules in same priority order.
1. Observe PA / Candlestick patterns.
2. Observe how far / near is next KPL and 200 EMA. I use 200 ema only in 4h and D, unlike those who use it even in smaller TF's.
3. Observe TDI oscillator, again only in 4h and above. I do not use TDI signals to enter a trade in TTF.
4. Pull the trigger.
5. Target can be, ATR7*2 / 50% of ADR, next KPL, if trade is scalp / intra day or positional etc.
6. I use global equity SL not individual trade stops.
Hope it helps. Feel free if you need more info.
Cheers
  • #559
  • Quote
  • May 20, 2022 3:16am May 20, 2022 3:16am
Quoting Spudfan
How does this look? It's on the daily so a fairly long-term breakout might be happening next week. {image}
There is more distance / space towards up, less on bottom. I better risk towards more than less.
More importantly both Aussie and Kiwi have major export exposure in China and with so much risk / chaos happening in China, both Aussie and Kiwi are out of my radar, at least for now.
Cheers
  • #560
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  • May 20, 2022 4:04am May 20, 2022 4:04am
Quoting Spudfan
How does this look? It's on the daily so a fairly long-term breakout might be happening next week. {image}
How I'm looking at at it, if at all I trade GA ...
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