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Buy Stop: 1834 | TP 1: 1851, TP 2: 1890 | SL: 1785


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On the daily chart, the price is falling within a narrow downwards channel, gradually approaching the support line. The key support is the channel's lower line, which coincides with the initial 61.8% Fibonacci extension trend level at 41.

On the 4-hour chart of the asset, it is clear that the global decline will continue, and the channel support line is only an initial target. The global downside target is the underlying trend of 100.0% for the Fibonacci expansion, around 29. Technical indicators also confirm the high probability of further decline: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are much lower than the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming downward bars in the sell zone.


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On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) develops, within which the third wave 3 of (1) formed. Now, a downward correction has started to develop as the fourth wave 4 of (1), within which the wave a of 4 is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 124.57 - 120.38. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 131.33.


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The European currency shows a mixed dynamics of trading against the US dollar during the Asian session, consolidating near 1.044 and expecting new drivers to appear on the market. The day before, the euro showed weak growth, continuing the development of Friday's momentum, which allowed the instrument to retreat from record lows since January 2017.

In the meantime, the news and macroeconomic background remained quite negative, and the reasons for the growth of the instrument were mainly technical factors. Yesterday's data from Europe somewhat disappointed buyers; however, in general, they didn't influence the situation on the market much. The eurozone Trade Deficit in March amounted to 17.6 billion euros, which turned out to be significantly worse than last month's data (-11.3 billion euros) and forecasts that suggested an improvement in dynamics to -6.6 billion euros.

Today, investors are focused on the updated statistics on the dynamics of GDP in the euro area for Q1 2022. Earlier data indicated that the European economy grew by 0.2% QoQ and 5% YoY. Also during the day, quarterly Employment statistics will be published and a speech by the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde will take place, where the official is likely to correct the regulator's forecasts regarding the vector of monetary policy in the near future.

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is slightly widening from below but does not conform to the surge of the "bearish" sentiment of the end of the previous week yet. MACD indicator is growing, having formed a new buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, having rebounded from the level of "20" and signaling in favor of the development of corrective growth in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.047, 1.05, 1.0576, 1.064 | Support levels: 1.04, 1.035, 1.03, 1.025

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The ETHUSD pair continues to decline within the framework of a long-term downtrend and last week fell to the lowest values since March last year around 1700.
The decline affected the entire cryptocurrency sector and was a consequence of the collapse of the UST stablecoin and the LUNA token. Currently, the quotes are trying to recoup some of the losses, but for serious corrective growth they need to break out the 2187.5 mark (Murray [3/8]). In this case, the price will be able to rise to the level of 2500 (Murray [4/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, Fibo retracement of 50.0%). The key for the "bulls" is the level of 1875.00 (Murray [2/8]). Consolidation of the price below it will give the prospect of further decline to 1562.50 (Murray [1/8]) and 1250 (Murray [0/8]).

The downtrend continues, which is confirmed by the downward reversal of the Bollinger Bands and the increase in the MACD histogram in the negative zone. The Stochastic is directed upwards, which creates the probability of attempts at corrective growth, but is unlikely to lead to a reversal of the current trend.

Resistance levels: 2187.5, 2500, 2812.5 | Support levels: 1875, 1562.5, 1250

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The pair may continue to decline
Against the backdrop of a depreciation of the American currency, the GBPUSD pair is correcting within the local trend around 1.2343.

Today the pressure on the pound may be exerted by data on the labor market in the UK for April. According to statistics, the unemployment rate was 3.7%, down from 3.8% in March. The level of labor productivity remained around 0.7%. It is worth noting another reduction in the number of applications for unemployment benefits, which decreased by 56.9K, after a decrease of 46.9K a month earlier. Thus, it becomes obvious that the growth rate of the UK economy is not as high as previously expected, which negatively affects the national currency.

The main driver of yesterday's asset growth was the US dollar, which in the index fell by half a point, reaching 104.200 amid the publication of a renewed forecast for the growth of the US economy for 2022 and 2023. According to the new forecast of The Goldman Sachs Group Inc., due to the serious tightening of monetary policy, GDP for 2022 was lowered to 2.4% from 2.6% in the previous forecast, and GDP for 2023 was lowered to 1.6% from 2.2% before. Also, investors could react negatively to the NY Empire State report, according to which the index of manufacturing activity in the US fell to 11.60 points in May from 24.60 points in April. The asset has left the global downstream channel and is currently completing a reverse test of the passed support. Technical indicators keep a sell signal: indicator Alligator's EMA fluctuations range is still quite wide, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading deep in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.245, 1.3 | Support levels: 1.216, 1.19

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AUDUSD, the pair may fall.
On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of C develops, and a downward correction forms as the wave (2) of C, within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the wave of the lower level i of C has formed, and a local correction is forming as the wave ii of C.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the price will fall to the levels of 0.6742 - 0.6446. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7244.

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GBPUSD, the pound is consolidating at local highs

The British pound is trading with mixed dynamics against the US currency during the morning session, holding in the area of local highs from May 5 and resistance at around 1.2500.

The pound was supported the day before by strong data on the UK labor market for March-April. Claimant Count Change in April decreased by 56.9 thousand after falling by 81.6 thousand a month earlier. Analysts expected a decline of only 38.8 thousand. The Average Earnings Excluding Bonus accelerated in March from 4.1% to 4.2%, which coincided with experts' estimates. The Average Earnings Including Bonus accelerated its growth from 5.6% to 7.0%, which turned out to be significantly better than the market's expectations of a slowdown to 5.4%. ILO Unemployment Rate in the UK in March fell from 3.8% to 3.7% with neutral forecasts.
Today, investors are awaiting the publication of statistics on consumer inflation for April. Current forecasts suggest a further acceleration of the indicator from 7% to a new record high of 9.1%. If market expectations are justified, pressure on the Bank of England may increase sharply, forcing the regulator to act more decisively on the issue of tightening monetary policy. In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range narrows slightly from above, but still remains spacious enough for the current level of market activity. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic retains upward direction but is located near its highs, which indicates the risks of overbought instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.25, 1.26, 1.2674, 1.28 | Support levels: 1.24, 1.225, 1.2163, 1.21


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XAGUSD, silver prices are consolidating around 21.50

Silver prices show a slight decline during the Asian session, testing the level of 21.5 for a breakdown. The instrument managed to update the local highs of May 11 the day before; however, the "bulls" failed to consolidate on new levels, as a result of which XAGUSD returned to the opening levels. Pressure on the positions of the instrument was exerted by optimistic macroeconomic data from the USA.

Tuesday’s statistics on the dynamics of Retail Sales in the US was better than market expectations. In April, Retail Sales volumes slowed down from 1.4% to 0.9%, while analysts expected a decline to 0.7%. Retail Sales excluding Autos for the same period slowed down from 2.1% to 0.6%, which turned out to be twice as good as experts' forecasts. Retail Sales Control Group declined marginally from 1.1% to 1.0% in April, while forecasts suggested a sharp slowdown to 0.5%. Thus, sales figures do not yet reflect a dramatic slowdown in consumer activity within the country. This removes some of the risks from investors who are concerned about a possible slowdown in the pace of monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve. Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady decline. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of multidirectional trading dynamics in the short term. MACD indicator is growing, while preserving a rather stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics; however, the indicator line is already approaching its highs, indicating the risks of overbought instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 22, 22.4, 22.7, 23 | Support levels: 21.39, 21.12, 20.81, 20.39


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Crude Oil, growth is possible, but correction risks remain

The quotes of WTI Crude Oil have formed a short-term upward channel and this week have reached its upper limit around 115.5.

Currently, prices are supported by positive pandemic data from China and a reduction in oil inventories in the United States. Today it became known that the Chinese authorities allowed 864 institutions to resume work in Shanghai after no new coronavirus cases were recorded outside the quarantine zones of the metropolis for three days. The retreat of the pandemic and the reopening of China's leading financial center give investors hope for stronger demand for oil in the Chinese economy. At the same time, US oil inventories declined again. According to the latest report from the American Petroleum Institute (API), the volume of oil reserves in the United States decreased by 2.445M barrels. So far, the situation seems to be favorable for the market. However, significant risks of price correction remain. They are associated with the postponement of the announced but still not implemented EU embargo on the supply of Russian "black gold." Experts fear that Hungary, which opposes the restrictions, will not be persuaded, or this process may be extremely protracted. Another negative factor for prices could be a US government permit for Chevron Corp. to negotiate oil supplies from Venezuela. If successful, the volume of energy supplies to the market may increase. Further price growth is slowed down by the upper limit of the rising channel, around 115.50. If it consolidates above it, the positive dynamics will continue to 118.75 (Murrey [3/8]) and 125.00 (Murrey [4/8]). If 111.50 (Fibonacci retracement 23.6%) is broken down, a correction to 106.25 (Murrey [1/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), 102.50 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%, the lower limit of the ascending channel) may develop. The indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger bands reverse upwards, the MACD histogram increases in the positive zone but Stochastic is getting ready to leave the overbought zone and may form a sell signal.

Resistance levels: 115.5, 118.75, 125 | Support levels: 111.5, 106.25, 102.5

NZDUSD, the pair may fall.

On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) of B formed, and a downward correction develops as the wave (B) of B, within which the wave C of (B) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C has formed, and the correctional wave iv of C has started.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the price will fall to the levels of 0.606 - 0.591. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6572


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USDCHF, the asset is back below 1

During the Asian session, the USDCHF pair shows a slight corrective growth, testing the level of 0.9940 for a breakout.

The instrument was actively declining yesterday, although the US macroeconomic background was quite optimistic. In particular, retail sales for April came out noticeably better than expected, reducing the risks that the US Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of monetary tightening.

Data from the EU attracted a little more attention from investors. Thus, the EU GDP for the first quarter of 2022 rose by 0.3% QoQ, which was better than the previous estimate of 0.2%. The growth rate of the European economy was also revised upward from 5% to 5.1% YoY. The employment rate increased from 2.2% to 2.6%.

The growth in demand for risky assets was also facilitated by news from China, where the authorities plan to finally lift quarantine restrictions on Shanghai from June 1 this year. The PRC continues to maintain a "zero tolerance" policy for COVID-19.

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing moderately. The price range is narrowing from above, reflecting the appearance of corrective dynamics in the ultra-short term. The MACD indicator is falling, forming a fairly strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics, being approximately in the center of its working area and signaling in favor of developing the "bearish" trend in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1, 1.005, 1.01, 1.015 | Support levels: 0.99, 0.9847, 0.977, 0.97


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On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of 5 forms, within which the wave 3 of (1) develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 is forming, within which the wave (i) of iii has formed, and a local correction is ending to develop as the wave (ii) of iii.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.32 - 1.341. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2667.

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The US dollar shows moderate growth against the Japanese yen in Asian trading, recovering from the active decline the day before, which led to the renewal of local lows from May 12.

The instrument is testing 129 for a breakout, receiving support from good macroeconomic statistics from Japan. In particular, investors welcomed yesterday's data release, which reflected a weaker slowdown in the Japanese economy in Q1 2022. The GDP showed a decline of 0.2% QoQ and 1% YoY, while forecasts suggested a contraction of 0.4% QoQ and 1.8% YoY.

Today, the yen is supported by strong data on the Machinery Orders. In March, volumes rose by 7.1% MoM and 7.6% YoY, although analysts had projected a 3.7% increase in both figures. Only the data on the dynamics of exports were somewhat disappointing. In April, Exports from Japan slowed down from 14.7% to 12.5%, which turned out to be worse than the average analysts' forecasts of a decline to only 13.8%. With persistently high Imports (although they also sank from 31.2% to 28.2%), this led to an increase in the Trade Deficit from 1019 billion to 1618 billion Japanese yen. In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range expands from below, making way for new local lows for the "bears". MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic shows a more modest decline, reacting to the emergence of upward dynamics during the morning session on May 19.

Resistance levels: 129.39, 130, 130.79, 131.33 | Support levels: 128.62, 127.88, 127.5, 127


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On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 forms, within which the wave (3) of 3 develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 of (3) is forming, within which the wave (iii) of iii has ended, and a local correction is developing as the fourth wave (iv) of iii.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.02 - 1.04. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9734.

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Yesterday, Brent Crude Oil prices declined moderately, continuing the development of the corrective impulse formed on Tuesday, when the instrument was at its local highs since March 28 and near the psychological resistance of 114 dollars per barrel.

The pressure on quotes is exerted by reports that the sixth package of EU sanctions against the Russian economy has been blocked. The new restrictions provided for a full or partial reduction in the import of Russian oil and oil products. The issue, as expected, was met with strong resistance from several members of the union, as a result of which the parties could not agree on the exact terms. Negotiations within the bloc will continue. The United States proposed not introducing a complete embargo (at least at the first stage) but implementing import duties only.

Yesterday the quotes were moderately supported by data from the US Department of Energy on the dynamics of oil reserves. Thus, for the week of May 13, oil inventories decreased by 3.394M barrels after a steady increase of 8.487M barrels over the previous period, although market forecasts assumed that positive dynamics would remain at 1.383M barrels. On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands show ambiguous dynamics. The price range remains virtually unchanged, remaining spacious enough for the current level of activity in the market. The MACD indicator falls, keeping a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Having retreated from its highs, Stochastic maintains a confident downward direction and has not yet reacted to an attempt to resume growth.

It is better to keep the current short positions until the signals from technical indicators are clarified.

Resistance levels: 109, 112, 115.5, 118.32 | Support levels: 106, 102.57, 100, 96.5

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The New Zealand dollar shows active growth against the US dollar during the Asian session, quickly recovering from the decline the day before, which proceeded against the backdrop of a sharp strengthening of the US currency. The US dollar was supported yesterday by the "hawkish" rhetoric of the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who reiterated the regulator's readiness to do everything necessary to curb inflation, which, in his opinion, threatens the foundations of the US economy.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic statistics from the US again turned out to be negative. Building Permits Change in April fell by 3.2% after rising by 1.2% a month earlier. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at 1.0%. Housing Starts in April decreased from 1.728 million to 1.724 million. The MBA Mortgage Applications fell 11% as of May 13 after rising 2% in the previous period.

Today's data from New Zealand do not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the instrument. Anyway, the Producer Price Index Input in Q1 2022 increased by 3.6% after rising by 1.1% in the previous quarter. The Producer Price Index Output for the same period accelerated from 1.4% to 2.6%. In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic keeps its upward direction but is rapidly approaching its highs, which reflects the risks of overbought NZD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.6400, 0.6450, 0.6500, 0.6567 | Support levels: 0.6300, 0.6250, 0.6200, 0.6150


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The precious metal quotes are being corrected in a downtrend, being around 1814 dollars per ounce.

The asset is declining amid fears for global demand due to the coronavirus outbreak in China, which led to serious restrictions. The negative effect on the Chinese economy can be assessed now. Yesterday, industrial production data were published in April, which fell by 2.9% after rising by 5.0% in March. Retail sales fell 11.1%, well above the 3.5% decline in March. Due to the introduced lockdown, the unemployment rate also increased, which amounted to 6.1% compared to 5.8% in March.
According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), since mid-March, the number of net speculative positions in gold has decreased from 274.5K to 193.3K, and over the last week, the outflow amounted to 5.9K positions. Thus, the overall speculative position in gold is approaching the minimum levels of the middle of last year at 165–175K positions, which indicates an extremely low demand for the metal. On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving within the global ascending channel, approaching its lower border. Technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA fluctuations range expands, and the AO oscillator histogram, having moved into the sell zone, continues to form downward bars.

Resistance levels: 1850, 1917 | Support levels: 1790, 1700


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On the daily chart, the upward wave C develops, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C formed. Now, a downward correction is forming as the second wave 2 of (1) of C, within which the wave of the lower level a of 2 has formed, and the wave b of 2 has ended as a triangle.

If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 77.08 - 62.5. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 115.62.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) of 3 develops, within which the wave 3 of (5) formed. Now, a downward correction has developed as the fourth wave 4 of (5), within which the wave c of 4 has formed.

If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 2070 - 2200. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1785.69.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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