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The Swamp

  • #100,621
  • May 13, 2022 10:32am May 13, 2022 10:32am
Curious if the drop in equities and cryptos (his $ loss on paper value). Has made Musk back out on Twitter. He may not have the liquidity now. Or the drop in equities prices. Makes him think he get get it cheaper.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,622
  • May 13, 2022 11:21am May 13, 2022 11:21am
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  • #100,623
  • May 13, 2022 11:46am May 13, 2022 11:46am
I shorted Eur at this bounce and see bears can hold M30 and H1 downtrend stop 0415/17 area
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  • #100,624
  • May 13, 2022 11:55am May 13, 2022 11:55am
-20% copper, -13% gold, -silver 24%, lumber -45%.

Oil is down as much as gold in the same period. But oil has a green rising candle. That is why the Aud cant crash. YEt/
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,625
  • May 13, 2022 1:08pm May 13, 2022 1:08pm
Quoting Boulder
I shorted Eur at this bounce and see bears can hold M30 and H1 downtrend stop 0415/17 area {image}
booked Eur shorts early here 0395
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  • #100,626
  • May 13, 2022 4:25pm May 13, 2022 4:25pm
Be careful of shorting Eur now, hedge funds added big Eur longs and closed some Eur shorts this week on May 10th COT report
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  • #100,627
  • May 13, 2022 4:41pm May 13, 2022 4:41pm
Quoting Boulder
Be careful of shorting Eur now, hedge funds added big Eur longs and closed some Eur shorts this week on May 10th COT report {image}
Hedge funds reduced gold longs and added gold shorts this week on May 10th COT report
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  • #100,628
  • Edited 4:16am May 14, 2022 3:40am | Edited 4:16am
Wheat March, April 2008. Ukraine winter harvest is in June. Third world countries will have a higher food cost. That's not reflected here. The $ cost was gone up almost 60% here. Thats $ cost. Using their own currency that's more than 60% increase in a few months. This is ahead of the harvest. So the real cost in the local currency could easily be 100% or more. In poor nations food cost is a very high % of their pay. If that cost rises 100 or 200+%. Those people will sell gold or whatever, They will certainly not buy as much gold. Lessoning gold demand. If at the same time they are selling it. Well that adds up to a real drop in gold prices. Their some may be a rush to the gate to sell. As each day they watch it drop in value. Those gold ring, earrings and other cultural reasons. Gold will lose shine over starvation. What man is going to watch his children starve, if he has a way to feed them?

India and China have about 1.4 billion each. That's 2.8 billion people. Since we are talking about the poor in those countries. They all need to eat. So whatever the number of poor is, its big. Between those people even the poor. Own some gold over generations of weddings and other cultural reasons. Gold has been collected. A poor individual may not have much gold. But when billions of people are added up. It becomes a large amount of lost demand. Its a large amount when they start selling it off. One ring at a time. It adds up.

What happens to some of the gold bugs as their crypto fortunes fall? At the same time they see gold dropping. What happens when their Apple-Tesla is falling. Those margin calls dont wait. The good and the bad assets will be sold. Silver and copper have more uses. They are pointed to a bigger drop. Copper is the heartbeat of the economy.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,629
  • May 14, 2022 5:49am May 14, 2022 5:49am
Quoting gatorinla
Wheat March, April 2008. Ukraine winter harvest is in June. Third world countries will have a higher food cost. That's not reflected here. The $ cost was gone up almost 60% here. Thats $ cost. Using their own currency that's more than 60% increase in a few months. This is ahead of the harvest. So the real cost in the local currency could easily be 100% or more. In poor nations food cost is a very high % of their pay. If that cost rises 100 or 200+%. Those people will sell gold or whatever, They will certainly not buy as much gold. Lessoning gold...

unfortunately this will be worse next week. remember this chart and let's see how bad it looks at the end of the month

Food crisis coming. Energy crisis, Inflation getting worse. we haven't seen the low on risk - imo
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #100,630
  • May 14, 2022 9:19am May 14, 2022 9:19am
Kakaya Russia...Russian command post going up in flames after repeated shelling from Ukrainian forces...
Inserted Video
I am who I am
  • #100,631
  • May 14, 2022 11:02am May 14, 2022 11:02am
we are getting to the point when a 2/3 year war is doing much damage than a victory to any part maybe

while everybody is cheering how russia is loosing on the economic side seems like russia is winning. the damage made is just unbelievable and we are just 2 months into conflict.

how will a 2 year conflict look like ? food, energy ? inflation ? - supply chains.

India, China, Indonesia.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #100,632
  • May 14, 2022 11:03am May 14, 2022 11:03am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} unfortunately this will be worse next week. remember this chart and let's see how bad it looks at the end of the month Food crisis coming. Energy crisis, Inflation getting worse. we haven't seen the low on risk - imo
I thought this could happen with gold. Because how important Ukraine is with world wheat production. Also the USDS was set to go to 117. Now if there is climate related problem in food production. There will be a world catastrophe in a shortage. India grows a lot of wheat. Mother nature could spoil production. ?I'm not saying that will happen. The potential with high temperatures can produce mega storms. So in a perfect storm, the usd going up, Ukraine, and a new climate related catastrophe. The potential of is there. Not to say this will happen. But since things are already dire. Its good to have an open mind. A climate related catastrophe is not a known. The stuff about Russia/Ukraine and wheat could be seen by Ray Charles. The affect on gold concerning India and China to me was not science fiction.
I did place a long at 1826 and 1828. I thought it would bounce there. The break there was significant. But it still needs a larger close below. So the potential for a gold bounce is real. How high? Or will it bounce? I dont know. But if it does, the R at and above 1828/.77/88 needs to be monitored. Large closes below those on the chart are meaningful. I did think it had a chance to bounce there. Now with a week close below. Its more a R. But to me a week is not big enough. It may linger in the 1826/28 area. 1858.6 area may be a short. I will look for something there. Nothing heavy, But if it cant close above 1848.72 R, Maybe it will drop again. I consider 1799 as a support, needing closes below to drop. My outlook is not bullish, So I look to sell R - closes.

As things are today, the low being 1799 is support to me. But its not related to it being a low. It was a support before. Bears would need to close the larger tf below it. So the potential to bounce to 1828.8 and or 1858 etc are real. I will post some charts later.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,633
  • May 14, 2022 4:51pm May 14, 2022 4:51pm
Quoting DMA Trader
we are getting to the point when a 2/3 year war is doing much damage than a victory to any part maybe while everybody is cheering how russia is loosing on the economic side seems like russia is winning. the damage made is just unbelievable and we are just 2 months into conflict. how will a 2 year conflict look like ? food, energy ? inflation ? - supply chains. India, China, Indonesia.
The 2 major nations buying from Russia. Are the same 2 thats people may suffer the most. The China/India government's may side with Putin. But China/india hungry people may hit the streets.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,634
  • May 16, 2022 3:56am May 16, 2022 3:56am
Gold bearish.. I just shorted gold at this bounce to 1799.. will add..
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  • #100,635
  • May 16, 2022 4:01am May 16, 2022 4:01am
US30.. I carefully longed some and aim for day range high around 32690 area
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  • #100,636
  • May 16, 2022 4:05am May 16, 2022 4:05am
Eur.. be careful shorting Eur.. bulls may push higher since they took over H1 trend
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  • #100,637
  • May 16, 2022 5:01am May 16, 2022 5:01am
Quoting Boulder
Eur.. be careful shorting Eur.. bulls may push higher since they took over H1 trend {image}
morning
i think we need to trade below 400 for shorts
bot some usd

eur/usd also hit an imp R 440 as long as we don't close above i am still into shorts
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #100,638
  • May 16, 2022 6:34am May 16, 2022 6:34am
Quoting Boulder
Gold bearish.. I just shorted gold at this bounce to 1799.. will add.. {image}
1799.40 lost is not good for gold bugs.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,639
  • May 16, 2022 6:37am May 16, 2022 6:37am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1799.40 lost is not good for gold bugs.
I have been shorting gold bounces all morning and made some $
  • #100,640
  • May 16, 2022 6:53am May 16, 2022 6:53am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I have been shorting gold bounces all morning and made some $
I still got pending eu shorts 0506.. I see some R 048x/0597. I hope it rises a little more. Its not looking too good atm for that bounce. Since its near the 03xx low, I have a shot for some bounce.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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