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On the daily chart, crude oil tests the resistance at $109 for the third continues trading day. The level's break-out is imminent. In this case, the next target will be March 24th peak at $115.8.

On the 6H time frame, the pair is trading in the uptrend tunnel struggling for a break-out. If the bears can push the black gold below the 25 daily moving average, we will witnessing a double top pattern. In this scenario, the correction started from March higher highs will continue, and a retest of the support levels at $99.5 and $99 can be seen in the upcoming weeks.

Resistance Levels: $109.26 , $111.69 , 126.63 | Support Levels: $105.2 , $99 , $92.2

Trade suggestions:
Buy stop: $110.3 , Target: $115.5 , Stop: $105.4
Sell stop: $106.1 , Target: $99.3 , Stop: $110.8


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The European currency loses value against the US dollar during the Asian session on May 9, testing the level of 1.05 for a breakdown. The EURUSD pair develops flat dynamics in the short term and remains around record lows, renewed on April 28.

Market sentiment does not have excessive demand for risky assets, which does not allow the trading instrument to change the trend. Also, the dollar is supported by the rather active course of the US Federal Reserve for further tightening of monetary policy, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is not ready for decisive action in this direction. The representatives of the European regulator are discussing the possible start of the interest rate hike cycle, despite the alarming rise in inflation in the region due to the military crisis around Ukraine. The timing of the possible start of tightening monetary policy is called the end of summer, but there have been no official statements on this subject so far.

The March macroeconomic statistics from Germany, published last Friday, put additional pressure on the currency positions. Thus, the volume of industrial production in the EU's largest economy fell by 3.9% after rising by 0.1% last month, although analysts expected a correction of only 1.0%. Experts believe that the risks of recession in the German and European economies continue to rise in the current situation.

Meanwhile, the EU intends to soon agree on the next sixth package of sanctions, which limits the import of petroleum products from the Russian Federation and blocks supplies by sea, but so far, a decision cannot be made due to the blocking of the Hungarian ambassador. It is noted that the governments of countries such as Hungary and Slovakia will have an extended deadline for the implementation of the oil embargo until the end of 2024, and the Czech Republic until June of the same year due to heavy dependence on Russian resources. Still, officials said they were already considering options such as reducing purchases from the Russian Federation.

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands show a moderate decline: the price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics in the short term. MACD tries to reverse into the downward plane, keeping its previous buy signal and above the signal line. Stochastic shows a more active decline and is currently rapidly approaching its lows, indicating that the euro may become oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.0576, 1.064, 1.069, 1.0726 | Support levels: 1.05, 1.047, 1.04, 1.035

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On the daily chart, the development of the third wave of the higher level (3) of 3 started, within which the first wave of the lower level 1 of (3) formed, and a local correction developed as the wave 2 of (3). Now, the wave c of 2 has formed, within which the fifth wave of the lower level (v) of c of 2 has developed.

If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will move to the area of 24.12 - 26.2. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 21.4.


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On the daily chart, a global downward correction develops, within which the wave of the higher level (C) of B forms, and the fifth wave v of (C) develops. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level (v) of v of (C) is forming, within which the wave v of (v) of v is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will fall to the levels of 1.035 - 1.025. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0704.


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The New Zealand dollar shows uncertain growth during trading in Asia, being pressured by the strengthening US currency ahead of the release of key data on US consumer price indices on Wednesday at 14:30 (GMT+2) and retreating from record lows renewed at the opening of the session. In the first hours of trading, the instrument tried to consolidate below the psychological level of 0.6300, where it was in June 2020.

Last week, the only important news coming from New Zealand was the unemployment report, but it failed to affect the national currency dynamics significantly. Macroeconomic data also showed rising labor costs for enterprises, which is a catalyst for higher product prices, thus putting significant pressure on the economy. Consumer price growth exceeded wage inflation, amounting to 6.9% YoY for March against 3.0% for April. Negative dynamics reflect the declining solvency of the population. Today, significant support for the New Zealand dollar is provided by new macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the volume of retail sales using electronic payment cards from New Zealand for April increased by 7% MoM after a decrease of 1.3% and by 2.1% YoY after a negative correction of 0.5% for March.

Meanwhile, investors are concerned about the prospects for a recovery in the global economy against the background of the rapid tightening of their monetary policies by the world's central banks and, in particular, the increase in interest rates to offset the negative effect of high inflation. Also, traders are focused on the introduction of new restrictive measures in China due to an increase in the incidence of coronavirus infection, which also significantly undermines the process of global economic recovery.

Bollinger bands show a steady decline on the daily chart: the price range narrow, reflecting an attempt at the appearance of corrective dynamics in the short term. MACD falls below the signal line, keeping a relatively strong sell signal. Stochastic reached its lows and reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating that NZD may become oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.6400, 0.6450, 0.6500, 0.6567 | Support levels: 0.6300, 0.6250, 0.6200, 0.6150


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The Australian stock market continues to trade in a downtrend after releasing poor financial data on major components and growth in the bond market. At the moment, the ASX 200 index is declining around 7038.0.

Corporate reporting remains ambiguous. Thus, the investment bank Macquarie Group Ltd. reported quarterly revenue of 10.80B AUD, well above the forecast of 7.90B, while advertising giant REA Group Ltd. reported revenue of just 278M AUD, below the forecast of 284.8M AUD, and the indicator of the previous quarter of 326.4M. Thus, given that most market participants have already presented their results, support for the index from this segment is not expected, and the main attention of investors will now be turned to the dynamics of bonds.

The global growth in the securities market, preventing the recovery of ASX 200 quotes, continues. So, during today's trading, the yield of popular 10-year bonds of Australia reaches 3.545%, and the rate of return on conservative 20-year bonds is 3.884%, increasing by 1.24% relative to the beginning of the week. Short-term instruments demonstrate more restrained growth, and annual papers are traded with a yield of 2.071%.

The price of the asset moves within the global side channel, approaching the support line. Technical indicators keep a stable sell signal: fast EMAs of the alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is deep in the sell zone, continuing to form downward bars.

Support levels: 6900, 6500 | Resistance levels: 7175, 7620


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The ETHUSD pair has been declining since the beginning of last month, and this week has reached 2200 near the January lows.

Currently, the quotes of the digital asset are testing the support zone 2343.75–2300 (Murrey [–1/8], the lower limit of the long-term rising channel), below which they have repeatedly tried to break through earlier. If successful, the decline could continue to 1875 (Murrey [3/8] for W1). Downward reversal of Bollinger Bands and an increase in the MACD histogram in the negative zone signal a continuation of the downtrend. However, Stochastic reversal upwards in the oversold zone does not exclude corrective growth to 2656.25 (Murrey [1/8]) and 2812.5 (Murrey [2/8], average Bollinger bands line) but is unlikely to lead to a reversal of the current trend.

Resistance levels: 2500, 2656.25, 2812.5 | Support levels: 2343.75, 2187.5, 1875


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On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of 5 forms, within which the wave 3 of (1) develops. Now, the first wave of the lower level i of 3 has formed, a local correction has ended as the second wave ii of 3, and the third wave iii of 3 is developing, within which the wave (iii) of iii is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.32 - 1.341. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2709.

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The British pound is trading up against the US currency, trying to recover from four sessions of decline, which led to new record lows since June 2020. The instrument remains under pressure from extremely low demand for risky assets, which, in turn, pushes the US currency to update record highs.

Despite an attempt by the Bank of England to stabilize the situation, experts fear that a sharp rise in interest rates could have an extremely negative impact on the recovery of the British economy, up to the onset of a recession. Meanwhile, the situation with energy resources remains tense, given that the EU and the UK continue to increase sanctions pressure against the Russian economy in response to a special military operation in Ukraine. Last Sunday, the leaders of the G7 countries held talks via videoconference, during which they supported the decision to phase out energy resources, as well as a ban on oil imports from Russia.

The data published the day before put additional pressure on the British currency. Thus, BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales in April showed a decrease of 1.7% after falling by 0.4% a month earlier, while analysts expected an acceleration of negative dynamics, but expected a slightly more modest decrease of –1.6%. Tomorrow, investors will follow the publication of updated data on the dynamics of UK GDP for Q1 2022.

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady decline. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of multidirectional trading dynamics in the short term. MACD indicator reverses to growth while forming a new buy signal (the histogram is about to consolidate above the zero level). Stochastic shows similar dynamics, recovering from its lows, indicating the risks of oversold pound in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.24, 1.25, 1.26, 1.2674 | Support levels: 1.225, 1.22, 1.215, 1.21

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The XRPUSD pair is falling along with the rest of the cryptocurrency market within a wide downward channel, reaching its lowest level since last March, around 0.4682 yesterday.

The pressure on the sector is still associated with the tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, which strengthens the position of the US currency compared to alternative assets. Also, experts note that due to the arrival of many institutional investors in digital assets, their correlation with the stock market has increased, and the fall of the latter over the past month and a half has harmed cryptocurrencies. As for XRP itself, the legal proceedings between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are putting additional pressure on the token. The process continues to drag out, and most experts expect it will be completed only next year, although the chances of a faster resolution of the situation remain. In this regard, the survey conducted by Finder among the leading experts in the cryptocurrency market is interesting. According to analysts, if Ripple wins in court by the end of the year, the token will be able to reach 2.55 dollars, and otherwise, it will restore part of the lost positions but will not rise above 0.68 dollars.

The price is testing 0.4883 (Murrey [5/8]). If it consolidates below it, the quotes may fall to 0.3906 (Murrey [4/8]). The key "bullish" level is 0.6130 (the middle line of Bollinger bands). Its breakout allows growth to 0.6836 (Murrey [7/8], the upper limit of the downward channel) or 0.7812 (Murrey [8/8], Fibonacci correction 23.6%). The downward reversal of Bollinger bands and the increase in the MACD histogram in the negative zone indicate the continuation of the downward trend, but the exit of Stochastic from the oversold zone does not exclude corrective growth.

Resistance levels: 0.6130, 0.6836, 0.7812 | Support levels: 0.4883, 0.3906


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On the daily chart, the first downward wave of the higher level (1) of 3 formed, and an upward correction develops as the second wave (2) of 3, within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C is developing, within which the wave (iii) of iii has ended.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction (iv) of iii the pair will grow to the levels of 1.007 - 1.02. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9783.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of C developed, and a downward correction forms as the wave (2) of C. Now, the wave of the lower level A of (2) has formed, the wave B of (2) has developed, and the wave C of (2) is forming, within which the wave i of C has ended, and the wave ii of C is forming.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the pair will fall to the levels of 0.6742 - 0.6446. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7374.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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The shares of Dupont De Nemours Inc., one of the world's largest chemical companies, are trading lower at 63.

On the daily chart, the price left the global sideways channel of 68 - 85, breaking the support line at 68, after which it consolidated in a downtrend, forming the necessary reverse test. On the four-hour chart, the current decline is developing within the downwards channel, and the quotes approached the support line, which runs around the level of 60.

Technical indicators confirm a high probability of further decline, maintaining a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are well below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is trading deep in the sell zone.

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The British pound shows an uptrend in trading, correcting after another decline the day before, as a result of which GBPUSD updated its lows since May 2020. The growth of the pound on Friday is due to the strengthening of technical factors, while the fundamental picture changes slightly and still contributes to the further weakening of the British currency.
Due to the difficult situation in the labor market, the disruption of product supply chains, as well as rising energy prices, the cost of living crisis will affect about 1 million Britons, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has calculated. According to the data presented, inflation in the country may accelerate to 14.4% by the end of this year, reaching 40-year peak levels. Against this background, about 250K people may find themselves in extreme poverty, and the economy itself may go into recession. To solve the problem, concrete measures of assistance from the government, totaling 4.2 billion pounds, will be required.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is changing slightly, but remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is trying to reverse upwards but preserves its previous sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic has been located in close proximity to its lows for quite a long time, which points to the risk of oversold GBP in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.225, 1.24, 1.25, 1.26 | Support levels: 1.2163, 1.2074, 1.2, 1.19

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The quotes of WTI Crude Oil have been trading for the second month within a wide lateral range of 111 - 95 and cannot yet determine the direction of further movement.

Market uncertainty is supported by two main factors. The possible introduction of an embargo on Russian oil supplies to EU countries contributes to the growth, a decision on this is being worked out, but has not yet been agreed due to the extreme dependence of a number of European countries on supplies from Russia. On the other hand, the strengthening of the exchange rate is hindered by the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in China, the world's largest exporter of "black gold". The deterioration of the epidemiological situation in the country can seriously undermine demand.

Recent statements by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC are also holding back growth. The head of the IEA, Fatih Birol, announced the possibility of bringing additional volumes from reserves to the market if necessary. The cartel's management has again lowered its forecast for the growth of global oil demand this year, citing the impact of the Ukrainian crisis, rising inflation and the development of a pandemic in China. This year, demand may reach 3.36M barrels per day, which is 20K barrels lower than the previous forecast. This situation practically guarantees that OPEC and its allies will maintain the previous insignificant rates of production growth. Nevertheless, despite a number of negative factors for the oil market, fears of the EU's refusal to supply Russian "black gold" still dominate.

The price has risen above the mark of 106.25 (Murray [1/8]), supported by the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, and may continue to rise to the levels of 112.50 (Murray [2/8], Fibo retracement of 23.6%) and 118.75 (Murray [3/8]). The key level for the "bears" is at 100 (Murray [0/8]). If consolidated below it, a decline to 93.75 (Murray [-1/8]) and 87.50 (Murray [-2/8], Fibo retracement of 61.8%) may begin.

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands are horizontal, the MACD histogram is at the zero line, its volumes are insignificant, and the Stochastic is directed upwards.

Resistance levels: 112.50, 118.75, 125 | Support levels: 100, 93.75, 87.5

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Buy: Current price | TP 1: 1861, TP 2: 1900 | SL: 1785


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On the daily chart, the global downward correction develops, within which the wave of the higher level C of (B) forms, within which the fifth wave v of (C) develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of v of (C) has formed, and a local correction is starting to develop as the fourth wave (iv) of v.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the price will fall to the levels of 1.031 - 1.025. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0645.


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Sell: 0.414 | TP: 0.3556 | SL: 0.4516


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One of the leading indexes of the American economy Dow Jones moves downward around 32080.

The main news of the past week was the statement of the head of Tesla Inc., Elon Musk, that the deal to buy the social network Twitter is temporarily suspended due to verification of data confirming calculations that fake accounts make up no more than 5% of the total number of daily active users. Shares of the service immediately reacted to this with a drop of 25%, although they later partially recouped losses after the entrepreneur, in a new tweet, said that he still intends to complete the deal.

Meanwhile, the yield on the popular 10-year government bonds fell to 2.908% late last week, while the conservative 20-year notes lost just over 1.00% and are now trading at 3.3057%, which is still quite high, so the negative pressure on the stock market remains.

The asset moves within a wide downward channel, approaching the support line. Technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA fluctuations range is actively expanding, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming new downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 32550, 34100 | Support levels: 31620, 30000


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During the Asian session, Brent Crude Oil prices are moderately declining, retreating from local highs of May 9 at 111.5 and testing 108.5.

The positive dynamics at the end of last week were due to the announcement of new restrictions on the import of Russian oil by the EU. It tries to agree on the sixth package of sanctions against the Russian economy, including a ban on oil supplies, which so far does not find unanimous support among all states since, according to Bloomberg, the heads of some of them have proposed to postpone the embargo. Although specific information was not disclosed, market participants consider a possible refusal as a sign of EU weakness. However, the European Commission was earlier ready to provide financial compensation to countries most dependent on Russian supplies, such as Hungary and Slovakia. Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban said that any changes regarding oil transportation should be discussed at EU leaders, while he announced his readiness to support a pan-European solution if pipelines that supply Russian oil are excluded from the sanctions package. Certain steps are being taken toward reducing Europe's energy dependence on Russia, and agreeing on the terms of a full or partial oil embargo is only a matter of time. Also, unilateral sanctions by the Russian government should not be ruled out.

A report from the International Energy Agency published last week had a certain impact on the market dynamics. It says that rising oil production in the Middle East and the United States will positively impact supply dynamics in the market. Also, given the declining demand for hydrocarbons, it is likely that soon it will be possible to avoid a situation of acute shortage in the market.

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing slightly: the price range is practically unchanged, remaining quite spacious for the current level of activity in the market. The MACD indicator grows, keeping a relatively strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics. However, it is quickly approaching its highs, which indicates that the instrument may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 109, 112, 115.50, 118.32 | Support levels: 106, 102.57, 100, 96.5


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