Road To Nowhere

another gold nugget from TAF

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...94#post2615794

I wanted to post some thoughts and things I have learned about reading the charts...so I dont forget them.
Fti said in his thread that he uses the Daily charts to indicate trend and the hourly and short charts to indicate the markets form.
This is my view on what I think he means.

The Euro daily charts are in a major down trend but that time scope is too far out to really consider for daylight trading. If you look at this first chart you will see that the current move is a minor correction of the major down trend. The bars highs are getting higher and the lows are getting higher. This is what i think fti considered as the Day trend(using bar by bar patterns and analysis). If you look at the 3ks daily chart you will see the most recent bars on EU and GU made some new lows and the UJ, the bars have been making new highs. I think this is an indication that the market may be reversing that trend to turn bullish USD.


to better look at whether that trend has reversed or not I zoom into the hourly to look at the trends form. if you look at the EU and GU you can see that they just bounced from the hourly up trends termination point(the low of the last wave up to make a new high). Although the hourlies made a new lower high and lower low they haven't broken the termination point and it still could just be an ABC corrective pattern before another move higher. So maybe the longer term Bias towards the upside is still in effect?

Not sure if my TA skills are on point but its what I am seeing and feeling atm.

These longer term outlooks help create a bias that I have about the overall market direction. What I have learned recently is that it is ok to have a bias and most of the time it is impossible to not have one but as FTI has told me " You cannot implement your bias on to your blotter until she shows you her..."
what does this mean to me? When the NOW charts have started to confirm my bias by turning in my directional bias with 3k's comfirmation (not always will you get 3k's lining up as we have seen recently with the UJ being not really in sync ).

take this example from Thursday of this week. Price had bounced off the hourly trend support and was moving up with all 3k's moving bearish dollar. After seeing the lower low and lower high on the hourly I expected to move to continue south so I was waiting to short. I though I saw topping on the 5 min 3ks so I scouted that area. Although there was bullish eur fundies at work I decided to trade what I thought was the reversal. The market continued up and i thought I'd leave my scout in and rescue with the hourly trend which I thought was down at the time. I soon realized that was a mistake because the NOW 3ks were still trending bearish dollar and I was against the NOW flow. Which made me come to the realization that it is not wise, even if you are with the hourly trend but in a retrace , to keep the trade on expecting the hourly trend to kick in for a rescue because allthough you are in the direction of the hourly you are trading against the NOW flow (making your rescue too deep and larger DD of account)and these trends can run for a long time. It would have been best to cut and flip long or wait it out on the sidelines. This was a realization that I had about fti eluding to " you cannot implement your bias on your blotter until she shows you her..."


sometimes you have a bias and that's ok but you have to realize that you have a biased opinion and you cant trade that bias until the market shows sign of your bias being correct. That is why you must always stay focused on whats happening NOW.

Todays trade for USDJPY.

Daily trend up
hourly is up

opened the 5 min chart and saw UJ had double bottomed with 2 impulsive movements to the upside, breaking the neckline and making new highs. That signaled my that she was gonna continue the hourly trend north. Then she consolidated into a downward sloping wedge , rounded upwards as it broke out of the wedge. I added scout then attack shown in the pic. Squared out at the Daily chart Highs.


I have been focusing on the psychology part of trading as I know I am not good at riding positions. This is due to fear of losing out should the market reverse. It is something I am actively working on and still needs a lot of work.

Scouts on Uj

bot x 1 x 132.69
bot x 1 x 132.79

lets see if this topping pattern is real...

looking to possibly buy euro. she's reaching strong support level and now breaking tops of the last leg down. Yellen speaks in 15 so we'll see

squared uj... think i was wrong

-49 pips

EURUSD

bot x 1 x 1.0684
bot x 1 x 1.0689

squared both 1.0697

+13 pips
+8 pips

total +21 pips

uj trade

buy x 1 x 134.11
buy x 1 x 134.36
buy x 1 x 134.38

UJ buy 1 x 134.22

Your journey is so much interesting. Best of luck to your future. By the way, are you know Assetsfx offers a demo account option for newbies, which I really like. Investing is extremely cost-effective.

had to cut my losses to attend to other matters... which is unfortunate because she ended up coming back my way. Having limited trading time is the pits.

here's where shes at now


I also detected that they were playing with the crosses so i didnt want to manage it away from my computer.

couple of scouts on euro on the ride down. I think the trend has changed to back to bull USD.
took profit here to cover the small loss I had earlier this week. book is back to BE for the week.

EurUSD scout

sell x 1 x 1.0449


market seems slow. They've been moving the Euro Cable crosses long eur short cable. wonder what's cooking? maybe I'm on the wrong step... thats what the scout is for

checker on EurUsd

sell x 1 x 1.0443


market not moving. Probably jumped the gun with the checker. Is everyone sitting on their hands waiting for the interest rate decision tomorrow?

Im thinking in cases like these the gbp would've been the better option as they are moving the crosses long EURGBP... and shorting the gbp would be going with its current trend. The Euro is moving less as the something is holding it up. Just my thoughts.


just as I was writing this the euro started moving. watching the dance closely

closed 1st scout @ 1.0438 +10 pips

scaled down as euro is in coil and eurcable is climbing still

haha and now she decides to run...

squared at 1.0421

I've decided to start posting my trades again to keep documenting my journey and to have a place where I can share ideas. I just want to say a big thank you to the people that have helped me along my journey. I am extremely grateful for everything

Two trades today..

here's the first

I thought I took a screenshot of before I closed it at the high in the next chart. I'll try to be more constistent with this but Im not the best at paint 3D
Squared at the previous high for the reasons explained in the second chart.

second trade




just two scalps today...