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The Swamp

  • #100,461
  • May 10, 2022 1:16pm May 10, 2022 1:16pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I booked one at 32410. thanks
why not book all and have shorted?

waiting for a dance..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,462
  • May 10, 2022 1:31pm May 10, 2022 1:31pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I booked one at 32410. thanks
dont get too greedy tp some redline..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,463
  • May 10, 2022 1:44pm May 10, 2022 1:44pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} dont get too greedy tp some redline.. {image}
closed
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,464
  • May 10, 2022 1:48pm May 10, 2022 1:48pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} {image} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GffaxrLJaaA
I may have closed early.. it starts off rough mostly..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,465
  • May 10, 2022 1:50pm May 10, 2022 1:50pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I booked one at 32410. thanks
Breakfast?
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,466
  • May 10, 2022 2:10pm May 10, 2022 2:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Breakfast? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8ecsAI3FhY
I need a nap. up since 3am trading.. ttyl
  • #100,467
  • May 10, 2022 3:01pm May 10, 2022 3:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Bears did it.. next 0516/18 support.. I'm still not impressed.. closing back above 0537 wouldn't surprise me. Nether would closing above 0560.. They are some st R now.. Maybe its just ADR. Bears seem to be asleep. {image}
It started acting more bearish again. -0556/57 day close should help bears now. But if 0557 or 0560 at close. It may go up again. I don't see that happening, but you never know. It has been acting funny since FOMC. A 25 pip run in this last hour is unlikely.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,468
  • May 10, 2022 3:07pm May 10, 2022 3:07pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} dont get too greedy tp some redline.. {image}
it did redline. I had closed and took a nap. It may be best to wait.. Take the money and run.. If it gets back to either aqua line. They may be s or R. A bounce with a tight stop may be best r/r
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,469
  • May 10, 2022 6:18pm May 10, 2022 6:18pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I need a nap. up since 3am trading.. ttyl
I let you sleep. Don't make me come in there.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,470
  • May 10, 2022 6:30pm May 10, 2022 6:30pm
CPI tomorrow. All looks bearish. Unless there is a miss. If its a miss, the way pa acted after FOMC and NFP. After these pa went to the upper range. We will know in 13 hours. If it does rise, 0641/44/51 does have some R. Its bearish, moving sideways. Not a bad time for a spike to take out some stops. Wait for the beep. Tomorrow after the CPI release, those placing COT deals. Will have time to play the CPI news.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,471
  • May 10, 2022 7:14pm May 10, 2022 7:14pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Things may have changed. I will say this, not 99%.. But 100% of all u.s. recessions since 1970 started with an oil spike around 6 months prier. I don't think people are accepting the world was totally a different place. Before the U.S. became a net oil importer. Everybody used to want to make stuff in Asia because of cheap labor. Its not so cheap no more. Also the energy which is the highest input cost. In heavy industrials, cost more in Asia. The Chinese government is curtailing energy subsidies. After the great bottleneck in the supply...
man i really have no idea
i started well the week than didn't do much hopefully we clear the news with inflation and things start to move
imo everyone is expecting a local bottom on anything or everhing a rally to sell - or close some on loss it's like the whole world expect this
and that can go from stocks to bonds to crypto - to USD

coinbase reported very bad, then it' said something that crypto on coinbase account belongs to coinbase in case of a bankrupcy - i mean everything is just crazy
crypto now has it's problem because people can't really stay decent to have some coins right ? they need futures, they need, derivates this world just doesn't learn anything

so now we have some issues with amazing leverage and derivates on crypto and hedge trades with strange coins. well i am not expert into crypto but seems like now big players can get margin calls. i've heard crypto funds are now short to protect their assets some sort of hedges well what could go wrong ? right.

i mean look at this guy. Saylor

https://www.microstrategy.com/en/investor-relations

MicroStrategy has a $205M term loan and needs to maintain $410M as collateral. $MSTR has 115,109 BTC that it can pledge

v This guy that everybody knows, he's a billionaire. ok - so now this guy can't have 50.000 bitcoin or 25.000 wich is also a lot
but he has to go on margin take loan against his shares, also against he's business. and this company has been public for 20 years. or more
So now. 50.000 bitcoins can be enough, no he needs 150.000 and he is still buying on any margin he can

Also there is Nayib Bukelele from El Salvador. Who is already down about 70M USD on country finances because of Bitcoin going under

El Salvador just bought the dip!
500 coins at an average USD price of ~$30,744

So while we are down on everything close to some sort of logic bottom - this kind of things, margin, huge derivatives can take down the system again. Crypto's are X times more than Subprime market in 2009. nothing regulated. so what i am saying anything can still happen even from this oversold conditions just have to be nimble. for now.

About eur/usd took some trades off small profit or breakeven. looking to close near 500 on eur/usd and then see but shorting here because of bad inflation number is almost impossible for me
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #100,472
  • May 10, 2022 7:30pm May 10, 2022 7:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
CPI tomorrow. All looks bearish. Unless there is a miss. If its a miss, the way pa acted after FOMC and NFP. After these pa went to the upper range. We will know in 13 hours. If it does rise, 0641/44/51 does have some R. Its bearish, moving sideways. Not a bad time for a spike to take out some stops. Wait for the beep. Tomorrow after the CPI release, those placing COT deals. Will have time to play the CPI news. {image}
yup the everyone on planet Earth - is looking on that number buying risk - if number comes light
or if it doesn't they will say it has peaked.

imo we are into a surprise for tomorrow where first reaction will be dumb - but we are all algos now so who cares all we need to have the print

anyway still think it's hard to trade this environment,

i see you made some nice calls on DJI - i may stay more online if now we can talk more about US Indices.
I see also Builder is trading now. so good to see that

Stay safe.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #100,473
  • May 10, 2022 7:43pm May 10, 2022 7:43pm
another theory is that we have no place to hide right
from crypto to stocks comodities gold everything down.
the only thing you can do is hedge/short - or just stay cash or long USD

so imagine the part of the world that is making money is being short risk - and long USD.
curently 540 R for eur/usd

now let's try to close all the shorts on profit after so many have been liquidated. right.

or imagine something comes from Ukraine just some bs headlines that Zelensky agrees to meet Putin. again try to close everybody's shorts

careful - market/derivatives are not the economy
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #100,474
  • May 10, 2022 8:24pm May 10, 2022 8:24pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} yup the everyone on planet Earth - is looking on that number buying risk - if number comes light or if it doesn't they will say it has peaked. imo we are into a surprise for tomorrow where first reaction will be dumb - but we are all algos now so who cares all we need to have the print anyway still think it's hard to trade this environment, i see you made some nice calls on DJI - i may stay more online if now we can talk more about US Indices. I see also Builder is trading now. so good to see that Stay safe.
In 1985 the usdx was near 165.0. We still got room to rise. In the 1/2 dozen years before oil was in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Oil was dropping as the usd was rising, oil went to the mid teens. (1986/1989.) Back then, the u.s. was a net importer. That has changed now. Remember the -34 oil a few years back. Adjusted for inflation, oil was 71.95 in 1985, and 37.86 in 1986. Almost 1/2 price. That can happen now with a stronger usd. Gold can go down to 1/2.. most commodities can drop quick. Russia Russia Russia, If not for the war, things may have already dropped.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,475
  • May 10, 2022 8:57pm May 10, 2022 8:57pm
eu 4h closed above 0531,, maybe a little bounce, if 1h closes above 0533.1
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,476
  • May 11, 2022 1:25am May 11, 2022 1:25am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} In 1985 the usdx was near 165.0. We still got room to rise. In the 1/2 dozen years before oil was in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Oil was dropping as the usd was rising, oil went to the mid teens. (1986/1989.) Back then, the u.s. was a net importer. That has changed now. Remember the -34 oil a few years back. Adjusted for inflation, oil was 71.95 in 1985, and 37.86 in 1986. Almost 1/2 price. That can happen now with a stronger usd. Gold can go down to 1/2.. most commodities can drop quick. Russia Russia Russia, If not for the war, things may...
it's hard to think about the reason
having prices here after a few months i would say means demand still strong right ?
you also have release of national reserves. so demand is still strong right ?

than how do you explain everything else false apart because slowdown, recession, supply chain.

how come we are still above 100 oil
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #100,477
  • May 11, 2022 2:10am May 11, 2022 2:10am
EURUSD...10 min already and not a single quote below the London opening time stamp...on the way to 1.06xxx right today...
I am who I am
  • #100,478
  • May 11, 2022 2:10am May 11, 2022 2:10am
this was like the "safest" trade
is it broke ? or still dream of stable coins ?
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #100,479
  • May 11, 2022 2:11am May 11, 2022 2:11am
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #100,480
  • May 11, 2022 2:26am May 11, 2022 2:26am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It started acting more bearish again. -0556/57 day close should help bears now. But if 0557 or 0560 at close. It may go up again. I don't see that happening, but you never know. It has been acting funny since FOMC. A 25 pip run in this last hour is unlikely.
The day already closed , but st these are the same R. An h or 4h above these, and pa may rise. R is R, so not closing above means its R
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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