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The Swamp

  • #100,421
  • May 10, 2022 5:16am May 10, 2022 5:16am
Quoting DMA Trader
still the same level eur/usd 550 - 560 support i may add to short below
540 now. strange
as soon as you think it will break resistance it goes down to support
let's see if not R is 550 560 last support broken

gold oil gas down

choppy until tomorrow cpi numbers
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #100,422
  • May 10, 2022 5:45am May 10, 2022 5:45am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} 540 now. strange as soon as you think it will break resistance it goes down to support let's see if not R is 550 560 last support broken gold oil gas down choppy until tomorrow cpi numbers
Feel the same.. I even cancelled my Eur pending short at 0583 before I went to bed. thinking Eur might go higher. . woke up and saw it crushed to 0840s..what a miss...
anyway I trade very lite atm , barely hold any positions with a couple Eur shorts and US30 longs.. wait for better levels..
  • #100,423
  • May 10, 2022 5:47am May 10, 2022 5:47am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} 540 now. strange as soon as you think it will break resistance it goes down to support let's see if not R is 550 560 last support broken gold oil gas down choppy until tomorrow cpi numbers
I high usd makes most other things cost less. The usd was getting stronger before the raising. Was it getting stronger, or was the others just getting weaker. Now the raising has begun, commodities start to deflate. The deflation may only show up verses the usd mostly. Under 100.62 pb oil may be able to drop faster. Q support is there. oil is under the month PP now. It stopped a day rise yesterday.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,424
  • May 10, 2022 5:55am May 10, 2022 5:55am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} very hard market it's very rare i don't trade i took some on euro but wasn't much even without position i am "afraid" for tomorrow and weeks to come. this is the hardest environment I've seen in the last 20 years. and i did start investing after 9/11 2008/2009 - 2012/ 2020 - got them all but i don't remember having such a market (stocks, bonds, credit spreads, money markets) and raising interest rates - Never
imho we are getting close to some sort of risk bottom
just an opinion - don't see yet all the indicators poiting this is the day and of corse timing is imposible imo

but could have some local/intermediate bottom

many have been killed - in the last week

we can also see huge risk rally

i do not think we are out of the woods yet, just a pause. for now.
but watch VIX we are way to high
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #100,425
  • May 10, 2022 6:00am May 10, 2022 6:00am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Feel the same.. I even cancelled my Eur pending short at 0583 before I went to bed. thinking Eur might go higher. . woke up and saw it crushed to 0840s..what a miss... anyway I trade very lite atm , barely hold any positions with a couple Eur shorts and US30 longs.. wait for better levels..
I don't know if it makes it there. But 0641. looks like a good spot. 0651 is another. Today's low plus 100 pips may be a good area. Tp 0323x will be my next tp if 0641 holds.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,426
  • May 10, 2022 6:17am May 10, 2022 6:17am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} imho we are getting close to some sort of risk bottom just an opinion - don't see yet all the indicators poiting this is the day and of corse timing is imposible imo but could have some local/intermediate bottom many have been killed - in the last week we can also see huge risk rally i do not think we are out of the woods yet, just a pause. for now. but watch VIX we are way to high
Things may have changed. I will say this, not 99%.. But 100% of all u.s. recessions since 1970 started with an oil spike around 6 months prier. I don't think people are accepting the world was totally a different place. Before the U.S. became a net oil importer. Everybody used to want to make stuff in Asia because of cheap labor. Its not so cheap no more. Also the energy which is the highest input cost. In heavy industrials, cost more in Asia. The Chinese government is curtailing energy subsidies. After the great bottleneck in the supply chain. More companies are choosing to add more North American manufacturing. The world changed the last 40 years. It can turn around to the past. In heavy industrial manufacturing. The energy ratio cost to labor cost may be 20X.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,427
  • May 10, 2022 6:19am May 10, 2022 6:19am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I don't know if it makes it there. But 0641. looks like a good spot. 0651 is another. Today's low plus 100 pips may be a good area. Tp 0323x will be my next tp if 0641 holds.
Will Trade Big lots for sure
  • #100,428
  • May 10, 2022 6:36am May 10, 2022 6:36am
Gold coming for H1 resistance 1865.. if not hold, next 1884 area
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  • #100,429
  • May 10, 2022 6:48am May 10, 2022 6:48am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Will Trade Big lots for sure
You don't have to risk a lot. No, you don't want to risk a lot. The R/R is great. The probabilities may lower with support holding. This chart has 8 levels to 1.0323. At 0602 the risk is 40 pips, to reward about 320. 1 to 8. at 0622 its about 1 to 16. at 0632 its about 1 to 32. at 0637 its about 1 to 64. Waiting is always better, because as the reward goes up in this example. The risk drops equally in 1/2 each step. This is what most people fail to grasp. Buy waiting for one trade. Can make more, and risk less, than many trades. You don't have to watch it. Place a pending, and go to sleep. You can extend the risk increments, just like the reward toward 0323 is here. Example if you want a 10% of the reward as the risk. just set the fib for -10%. it will give you a level.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,430
  • May 10, 2022 6:52am May 10, 2022 6:52am
Quoting Boulder
Gold coming for H1 resistance 1865.. if not hold, next 1884 area {image}
dont forget about 1873.57
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,431
  • May 10, 2022 6:55am May 10, 2022 6:55am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I don't know if it makes it there. But 0641. looks like a good spot. 0651 is another. Today's low plus 100 pips may be a good area. Tp 0323x will be my next tp if 0641 holds.
I have 0513 as target for today. I don't know if it reach. It's only for today.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #100,432
  • May 10, 2022 7:15am May 10, 2022 7:15am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} dont forget about 1873.57
A week close below 1873.x will put pressure to fall. It would need to close below 1825.57.. It should prove some support as long at its closing above it.. 1837.55 could be something too, monitor it. Later 1794.74 is another that should support. You want the larger closes on your side of the trade on the same side.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,433
  • May 10, 2022 7:41am May 10, 2022 7:41am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} A week close below 1873.x will put pressure to fall. It would need to close below 1825.57.. It should prove some support as long at its closing above it.. 1837.55 could be something too, monitor it. Later 1794.74 is another that should support. You want the larger closes on your side of the trade on the same side.
love this ....
Inserted Video
  • #100,434
  • May 10, 2022 8:04am May 10, 2022 8:04am
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} I have 0513 as target for today. I don't know if it reach. It's only for today.
st closing above 0560 looks bull, -0543 bear,, st -5043 is below 0551, s0 it may test 0506. 0560 is above 0551 so closing it may test 0576 84 97 etc.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,435
  • May 10, 2022 8:09am May 10, 2022 8:09am
US30, still waitng to see bulls can take over H1 at 32740 area
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  • #100,436
  • May 10, 2022 8:11am May 10, 2022 8:11am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} love this .... https://youtu.be/WCoOw9hAW50
Next time on a black sand beach.
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,437
  • May 10, 2022 8:29am May 10, 2022 8:29am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} st closing above 0560 looks bull, -0543 bear,, st -5043 is below 0551, s0 it may test 0506. 0560 is above 0551 so closing it may test 0576 84 97 etc.
make it 0537 for the bottom.. 0453 may lead to 0537.. you can see it needs to close below 0537..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,438
  • May 10, 2022 8:36am May 10, 2022 8:36am
Quoting Boulder
US30, still waitng to see bulls can take over H1 at 32740 area {image}
US30 testing H1 at 72744.. let see bulls can reverse the downtrend ..
  • #100,439
  • May 10, 2022 8:43am May 10, 2022 8:43am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} US30 testing H1 at 72744.. let see bulls can reverse the downtrend ..
don't fight the trend..
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,440
  • May 10, 2022 8:59am May 10, 2022 8:59am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} US30 testing H1 at 72744.. let see bulls can reverse the downtrend ..
I sent you a 30 templet
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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