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Time and Price Forecasting

  • #4,301
  • May 2, 2022 12:37pm May 2, 2022 12:37pm
Super interesting analysis and thoughts here... I'm definitely learning something
  • #4,302
  • May 3, 2022 8:02am May 3, 2022 8:02am
Short play on USDCAD 1h:

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Determine the risk. It either works or it doesn't. Go to the next trade.
When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #4,303
  • May 3, 2022 10:27am May 3, 2022 10:27am
20 pips in profit and price at temporary session support.

This is a done trade for now IMHO. Can close completely, or do a partial exit and move SL to BE.

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When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #4,304
  • May 3, 2022 10:28am May 3, 2022 10:28am
Also, halving the angles could give you this perspective.

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When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #4,305
  • May 3, 2022 12:05pm May 3, 2022 12:05pm
Diagonal acting as resistance once again.

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Draw the "correct" angles. Feel the order flow of your particular session. See the intraday support/resistance for your targets.
When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #4,306
  • May 4, 2022 6:52am May 4, 2022 6:52am
Quoting MoeinYzz
Diagonal acting as resistance once again. {image} Draw the "correct" angles. Feel the order flow of your particular session. See the intraday support/resistance for your targets.
Nice work Buddy......

Sometimes we get too complicated with our analyses...good example of simplicity is this morning Cable....note retrace from yesterday high to low...yes the good ole 61.8 retrace in an already strong downtrend...then look at the 1 minute where a pattern emerged that was clear as a bell...another downturn...A stress free 40 point, no drawdown trade....love these..
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  • #4,307
  • May 4, 2022 9:24am May 4, 2022 9:24am
Quoting Swede
{quote} Nice work Buddy...... Sometimes we get too complicated with our analyses...good example of simplicity is this morning Cable....note retrace from yesterday high to low...yes the good ole 61.8 retrace in an already strong downtrend...then look at the 1 minute where a pattern emerged that was clear as a bell...another downturn...A stress free 40 point, no drawdown trade....love these.. {image}
Hey Swede. Thank you!
Nice to see you post on this thread my friend.

Allow me to go on a rant because I feel like it's really needed.

First of all, well said. That's exactly what I've been struggling with for the last couple of months which led me to a huge discouragement towards the whole trading game especially in the these couple of weeks. Trying to find the "best" and "correct" way to trade by looking at different methodologies on YouTube, FF threads and adding more and more variables on systems to reduce the losses to zero. Defining price behavior and candles as this and that. Which is something all of us fall into the trap of from time to time.

But what we miss is that no matter how much "precision" you add to your chart and your method, there's absolutely no way you can be sure it's going to be a winner the very next moment. Even if you think that, then you have no regards towards the concept of probabilities, which rule the markets. I think it's pretty much safe to say the more filters and "proven" criteria you add to your chart and your methodology, that harder it's going to be for you to make a decision. Because now you're struggling to pick the winner. But guess what; you cannot.

What you showed is a perfect example for anyone looking to learn to trade and be profitable. Things need to be simple enough for anyone to be able to start with. A method needs to be crystal clear and have simple but meaningful instructions. One just needs to consistently execute that method. No matter how many times he fails or incurs a loss.

Complicating things only causes headaches. Doesn't add to your winners. Why? Because at the end of the day, it's all probabilities. Anything can happen at any given moment in the market. That's why I think we all need to take our psychological multivitamin from time to time. Because us humans are forgetful creatures. Watching videos of Mark Douglas and and reading his books is something to always have in mind while trading.

There's this quote that says: It's all about the next trade. And it really is. That's why someone like Mark Douglas says: Determine the risk. It either works or it doesn't. Go to the next trade.

I know it's not a flashy concept for everyone to embrace fully, but the road to success in this game is nothing but this.
When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #4,308
  • May 4, 2022 9:34am May 4, 2022 9:34am
Quoting MoeinYzz
{quote} Hey Swede. Thank you! Nice to see you post on this thread my friend. Allow me to go on a rant because I feel like it's really needed. First of all, well said. That's exactly what I've been struggling with for the last couple of months which led me to a huge discouragement towards the whole trading game especially in the these couple of weeks. Trying to find the "best" and "correct" way to trade by looking at different methodologies on YouTube, FF threads and adding more and more variables on systems to reduce the losses to zero. Defining...
I think your conclusion and summation are 100 % correct and that is a fine starting point to understand the market. I will pull a few charts and explain why I say this, I’m just tied up for a couple hours so this will be a bit later..
  • #4,309
  • May 4, 2022 11:45am May 4, 2022 11:45am
1min USDCAD behavior between two diagonal. (Too fast for me. I prefer 15min and higher)
But shows how the system can give quite accurate entries regardless of the timeframe.

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1hr.
Quite beautiful, isn't it?

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Orderflow was clearly bearish. Lower highs and lower lows. So I was looking for shorts. About 30minutes after news, price spiked up to that diagonal where I entered short. As you can see, it knifed through and stopped me. Completely natural behavior after such a high impact news.
Tried again after it came below the line. Worked pretty good.
It can be this easy. Just need to feel relaxed and follow rules stress-free.
When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #4,310
  • May 4, 2022 12:05pm May 4, 2022 12:05pm
This is the 15min price action.

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One of the things traders usually look for, is confirmation. Something to give you confidence and approve your thought process and decision. But the thing is, in most cases and obviously in quick situations like this, by the time you see something, it's useless. It has lost its value. So if I were to wait for a good 15minute candle confirming potential downside, I would've missed this whole move.

Obviously I don't want anyone to think that just because price is near your value area you can blindly get in. Of course you need to see behavior around that area first of everything. Many times, price just consolidates and then breaks those areas. So the need to watch for behavior is absolutely necessary.
What I meant to say was, after some time of watching, it's time to make a decision. You've done the analysis, figured out your value area and order flow, and observed the behavior. Now's the time for the decision. Go for it with an open mind. No fear and no hope. Just an edge-ucated guess in play. Anything can and will happen.
When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #4,311
  • May 4, 2022 10:00pm May 4, 2022 10:00pm
Quoting MoeinYzz
This is the 15min price action. {image} One of the things traders usually look for, is confirmation. Something to give you confidence and approve your thought process and decision. But the thing is, in most cases and obviously in quick situations like this, by the time you see something, it's useless. It has lost its value. So if I were to wait for a good 15minute candle confirming potential downside, I would've missed this whole move. Obviously I don't want anyone to think that just because price is near your value area you can blindly get in....
I got caught up trading the FOMC reaction this afternoon (banked over 100 pips BTW) so didn’t have a chance to make up my reply yet to what we discussed earlier........the theme PRICE WILL EITHER GO UP OR DOWN is very true and there is a sure fire way to make sure your on the right side. I do it nearly every day without relying on my filters and it is very very simple, but works probably 90 percent of the time. I will explain in detail before the weekend for sure.
  • #4,312
  • May 5, 2022 7:49am May 5, 2022 7:49am
@MoeinYzz......

I am simply amazed at all the developments with indicators the past few years, some of them work splendidly, others a disaster. But through it all you never see them on Market Makers charts....yes, you will see Macd, Stocastics, Rsi, indicators that have been around for years and years. They also watch key moving averages like the 200, the 100 and so on, but the institutional traders pay attention to Market Structure and Key Turning Points.

This next statement you seldom hear, but it is a well known fact that very Often, The NY session reverses the London session, not always , but often. And the key turning points they watch are BRN's and 50% of the Big Round Number, also Fibonacci retrace levels are part of their arsenal, they can drive prices to levels where stops can be challenged and so on, just doing their job creating a market.......no conspiracy, no attack on you and me, they are simply doing their job of moving money, day in day out.

So, what I want to make clear is I am not against any filters, but they are really secondary to what you see in front of you every single day....and if you focus on key turning points, that you know will be challenged at some point, well your positions has just strengthend tremendously.

Now, having said all that, the next charts I will show you explain what I know is a certainly, and can only be successful if certain rules are in place....
  • #4,313
  • Edited 8:35am May 5, 2022 7:50am | Edited 8:35am
So, the following is something you can implement every day, at the 0pen of the NY session. Don't need any filters, but if your favorite filter adds to your confidence so be it. On the charts I clearly identify the London session up until the NY traders begin to trade, there is no exact time but most would agree 8:00 AM NY time is pretty accurate, and at 8:30 all the news is released so by then every one is on board, both NY and London trader for another hour or so.

Rule Number 1........use the 30 min candle and you Do Not Trade until that candle closes and you watch the reaction of the next candle. Every day this week offered a great entry on a day basis, but if this rule is broken, I fully disclaim the method......your just guessing direction in between.
Rule Number 2......check the news that could affect the trade before you enter the market...just have a glance, if you see a major announcement like NFP, or Fomc wait for the reaction, but if there is little in the way of news take action.
Rule Number 3.....goes without saying but always use an appropriate stop.....

So, have a look at the charts from Monday to today, I hope this little "trick" can help you decide "if price is going up or going down"

ps. If you implement the rules above to your daily traiding, especially waiting for the 30 min candle to close, you will have a much better perspective on the market, and suddenly your filters seem to work a lot better....enjoy, try it out, see if what i am saying is true..
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  • #4,314
  • May 5, 2022 8:00am May 5, 2022 8:00am
Hi swede it's glad to see you are still posting on this thread so this means we have huge opportunity to learn from you, so here is my daily GJ chart based on the method you taught in previous pages (currently i'm on page 187). Any comments/advise from your side is worth for me
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  • #4,315
  • May 5, 2022 8:13am May 5, 2022 8:13am
Quoting ALIpk1317
Hi swede it's glad to see you are still posting on this thread so this means we have huge opportunity to learn from you, so here is my daily GJ chart based on the method you taught in previous pages (currently i'm on page 187). Any comments/advise from your side is worth for me {image}
Really good chart, no question the top was clearly identified, trouble is swing trading takes tremendous time and patience to implement and prosper from. The chart I will be posting above will give you something to think about during the NY session that you can practice next week.....
  • #4,316
  • May 5, 2022 8:40am May 5, 2022 8:40am
Quoting Swede
{quote} Really good chart, no question the top was clearly identified, trouble is swing trading takes tremendous time and patience to implement and prosper from. The chart I will be posting above will give you something to think about during the NY session that you can practice next week.....
This "patience" factor was already in my mind that's why i am practising this method on lower time frames as well,
Here is EU h1 chart although i was sleeping when it reached the TOP(yellow arrow) but i catched some pips after rejection candle( red arrow).
And i'm thankful to you,DM,PB and everyone who contributed to this thread
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  • #4,317
  • May 5, 2022 8:48am May 5, 2022 8:48am
Quoting ALIpk1317
{quote} This "patience" factor was already in my mind that's why i am practising this method on lower time frames as well, Here is EU h1 chart although i was sleeping when it reached the TOP(yellow arrow) but i catched some pips after rejection candle( red arrow). And i'm thankful to you,DM,PB and everyone who contributed to this thread {image}
perfect Brother!!
  • #4,318
  • May 5, 2022 9:41am May 5, 2022 9:41am
Quoting ALIpk1317
Hi swede it's glad to see you are still posting on this thread so this means we have huge opportunity to learn from you, so here is my daily GJ chart based on the method you taught in previous pages (currently i'm on page 187). Any comments/advise from your side is worth for me {image}
No, I won’t be posting on a regular basis, I just wanted to show MoenYzz ( and anyone who may be interested) a little trick that gives perspective to what direction things may go....during NY session.

It takes a ton of time to illustrate charts with meaning, sometimes causing me to miss lucrative trades, but thanks for your interest.
  • #4,319
  • May 5, 2022 10:12am May 5, 2022 10:12am
Quoting Swede
So, the following is something you can implement every day, at the 0pen of the NY session. Don't need any filters, but if your favorite filter adds to your confidence so be it. On the charts I clearly identify the London session up until the NY traders begin to trade, there is no exact time but most would agree 8:00 AM NY time is pretty accurate, and at 8:30 all the news is released so by then every one is on board, both NY and London trader for another hour or so. Rule Number 1........use the 30 min candle and you Do Not Trade until that candle...
Quite an intriguing set of illustrations Swede. I think I remember your older posts in which you also used to encompass the London price action in a box. Sure is a good way to get a feel from earlier of the day. And looks really simple and relaxing!
Thanks for your instructions. Will surely look for them since it's pretty simple and makes good sense.

Regarding your post about market structure, fully agree on that. I think it's mostly overlooked. At least by me. Which is why I'm doing some studies on them. Trying to learn to see if I can recognize key structures and their breaks by good momentum candles which people call order blocks. Those acronyms people put on an area in a chart. Trying to learn what swings and mini swings and range areas mean and what the chart can tell me. It's an interesting concept to me and I think it can help trying to tape read as they say.


I'll put some of my findings on here since I feel at home on this thread lol. If it was getting distracting or beyond what the thread was meant to be about, I'll move em elsewhere.

Cheers!
When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #4,320
  • May 5, 2022 10:31am May 5, 2022 10:31am
Quoting ALIpk1317
{quote} This "patience" factor was already in my mind that's why i am practising this method on lower time frames as well, Here is EU h1 chart although i was sleeping when it reached the TOP(yellow arrow) but i catched some pips after rejection candle( red arrow). And i'm thankful to you,DM,PB and everyone who contributed to this thread {image}
Well done friend. The methodology can work wonders. On all timeframes. I've personally seen it provide ample opportunities. Just stick to it and refine it based on your personality. You'll take trades you wouldn't believe.

Good luck!
When there's a will, there's a way.
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