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  • #501
  • May 5, 2022 7:01am May 5, 2022 7:01am
I finally cracked a decent breakout trade. Earlier in the year I was going on about the "pinch", where all the EMAs come together closely in a tight consolidation. Most of the time the breakouts happen so fast I miss them. This time I noticed such a setup on GBPJPY and placed a sell stop order below. And a short while later this happened. SL is at breakeven, TP at 190 pips - a nice one if it gets all the way there.

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  • #502
  • Edited 7:18am May 5, 2022 7:06am | Edited 7:18am
Quoting Spudfan
I finally cracked a decent breakout trade. Earlier in the year I was going on about the "pinch", where all the EMAs come together closely in a tight consolidation. Most of the time the breakouts happen so fast I miss them. This time I noticed such a setup on GBPJPY and placed a sell stop order below. And a short while later this happened. SL is at breakeven, TP at 190 pips - a nice one if it gets all the way there. {image}
But I didn't get this one right - entry was too close so price triggered it and went back into the consolidation area. There's obviously an art to this.

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  • #503
  • May 5, 2022 10:58am May 5, 2022 10:58am
todays trade on nifty ....
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i went short with one lot futures and sold one lot weekly call option.
booked profit on future lot at end of session. options lot carried for tomorrow.
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( the MGL trade. it didnt go my way so booked loss)

note the change in the templete .... i have short term coloured guppys in subwindow.
  • #504
  • May 5, 2022 11:01am May 5, 2022 11:01am
fortunately dow has almost crashed giving away all of yesterdays gains.... my option trade is a certain profit

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  • #505
  • May 5, 2022 11:29am May 5, 2022 11:29am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} There's obviously an art to this. {image}
sir,
1) guppy system has to be traded with one oscillator. rsi is my choice. i had to struggle a lot to get rsi settings right.
2) breakout, pullback, continuation pattern is the best way to trade guppy..... after a breakout a pullback near 50% fibo is a good entry point.
3) continuation entry as near as LT guppy is a high probablity winning trade.
4) the LT guppy is the decision making indicator. they have to be spaced correctly for your entry. entry has to be as near the LT guppy.

i dont mean any disrespect
  • #506
  • Edited 3:07pm May 5, 2022 2:19pm | Edited 3:07pm
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} sir, 1) guppy system has to be traded with one oscillator. rsi is my choice. i had to struggle a lot to get rsi settings right. 2) breakout, pullback, continuation pattern is the best way to trade guppy..... after a breakout a pullback near 50% fibo is a good entry point. 3) continuation entry as near as LT guppy is a high probablity winning trade. 4) the LT guppy is the decision making indicator. they have to be spaced correctly for your entry. entry has to be as near the LT guppy. i dont mean any disrespect
No offence taken!

All people are different and we find different ways of trading that suit us. My preference is for clean charts without any or with very few indicators, apart from the Guppy GMMAs themselves. I have found every time I start playing with other indicators that I get distracted and start making mistakes. That is why I have gone back to using "pure" GMMAs. That just seems to work better for me.

Something else is that you trade options and futures - I confess I have very little idea of what those are or how they work! I trade forex pairs almost exclusively which, I think, work quite differently from options and futures, also indices, which I am beginning to gain some experience with.

My comment about there being an art to it was in reference to breakouts from a tight consolidation area (what I have previously called a "pinch"). I have missed many of these very promising breakouts and so, when I succeeded in catching the GBPJPY breakout today I was very happy! But I then messed up the EURJPY trade, so yes, it seems there is an art to catching breakouts and I want to figure out what I did wrong with that one.
  • #507
  • Edited 4:02pm May 5, 2022 3:41pm | Edited 4:02pm
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} No offence taken! All people are different and we find different ways of trading that suit us. My preference is for clean charts without any or with very few indicators, apart from the Guppy GMMAs themselves. I have found every time I start playing with other indicators that I get distracted and start making mistakes. That is why I have gone back to using "pure" GMMAs. That just seems to work better for me. Something else is that you trade options and futures - I confess I have very little idea of what those are or how they work! I trade...

1) No offence taken!
thanks sir.

2) "That just seems to work better for me"
agreed

3) "it seems there is an art to catching breakouts and I want to figure out what I did wrong with that one"
here i disagree. guppy system is not catching breakouts. its a breakout pullback continuation pattern. guppy relies on LT group as the treand and ST group gives you the entry. this is what i am doing successfully.

4) trading breakouts is not guppy multiple moving averages trend following system . please refer to my posts 278 and 279 and post 280...your reply to my comments.

once again : i dont mean any disrespect


  • #508
  • May 5, 2022 4:16pm May 5, 2022 4:16pm
"I have gone back to using "pure" GMMAs."


even guppy himself disagrees

Inserted Video


he defines entry and exit points not on GMMA but on ANTSSYS
  • #509
  • Edited May 6, 2022 12:10am May 5, 2022 11:33pm | Edited May 6, 2022 12:10am
Hi Spudfan and Rajesh and other roomies,
Though I'm a newbie at FF, im not newbie to fx trading as such. It is just that as all of us do, I'm also trying to find an easier to understand and implement method, days after days, weeks after weeks to years after year.
After stumbling on this thread and my interaction with Spudfan and Rajesh, about 10 days ago, I did lot of studies not just on GMMA, but also on rainbow trading.
One thing common in all GMMA and rainbow threads / posts, is both entry and exits are individualistic and subjective. Being a pro trader and living off trading, I can not allow my trading life to be subjective. I prefer it to be more objective and precise.
To this effect, I find Rajesh's strategy to be more rules based and definite than subjective.
1. I fine tuned Rajesh's rules to suit my trading style. I prefer TDI than RSI ONLY because I'm already used to TDI since 3 years and know the flow.
2. I trade from second 4h candle close, 10.30 IST, 5 hours into Tokyo till London close, 21.30 IST. That is 11 hours trading window.
3. I will wait for either Bullish / Bearish rotation or Rejection, on 4h or / and 1h, 30 ema and 60 ema cross over.
4. After the rotation / rejection, trade in shorter TF to catch more pips. Trade 15m on rotation in 1h and trade 1h and 15m after 4h rotation.
5. I exit trade/s on, either ADR being reached or TDI in OB / OS in 1 higher TF than TTF.
6. Today being NFP, i'm on sidelines today, will update from Monday.
Welcome any and all advices.
TIA
  • #510
  • May 6, 2022 1:36am May 6, 2022 1:36am
Quoting walvekarraje
"I have gone back to using "pure" GMMAs." even guppy himself disagrees https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56s8FbILhBs he defines entry and exit points not on GMMA but on ANTSSYS
My mistake, Rajesh. I used the word "pure" as in chart appearance, not purity of method. Perhaps "uncluttered" would have been a better choice of word. So, to be clear, I prefer uncluttered charts and I have found on many occasions that when I start experimenting with other indicators I get distracted and start making mistakes.

As for breakouts, I can't recall whether Guppy refers to them, but "pinches" do exist and so do breakouts from those pinched areas. If Guppy missed that it's his bad, not mine
  • #511
  • May 6, 2022 1:49am May 6, 2022 1:49am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} My mistake, Rajesh. I used the word "pure" as in chart appearance, not purity of method. Perhaps "uncluttered" would have been a better choice of word. So, to be clear, I prefer uncluttered charts and I have found on many occasions that when I start experimenting with other indicators I get distracted and start making mistakes. As for breakouts, I can't recall whether Guppy refers to them, but "pinches" do exist and so do breakouts from those pinched areas. If Guppy missed that it's his bad, not mine
Spudfan, I don't know if you or other roomies remember.
You had posted few charts LT guppies above / below 200 ema. That alone is a big game changer is someone follows it religiously.
Thanks for that eye opener
  • #512
  • May 6, 2022 2:53am May 6, 2022 2:53am
Quoting sagar1983
{quote} Spudfan, I don't know if you or other roomies remember. You had posted few charts LT guppies above / below 200 ema. That alone is a big game changer is someone follows it religiously. Thanks for that eye opener
Would that be post #149? Here's the annotated image from that post with rules. Perhaps I should go back to that!

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  • #513
  • May 6, 2022 4:38am May 6, 2022 4:38am
Quoting sagar1983
{quote} Spudfan, I don't know if you or other roomies remember. You had posted few charts LT guppies above / below 200 ema. That alone is a big game changer is someone follows it religiously. Thanks for that eye opener
Sagar, your reminder of that post is very interesting. It seems I have come back that that instinctively without realising it. The only difference is that the MA I have added to the standard GMMAs is 120 EMA, not 200. I found then that waiting for a "pinch" that included the 200 EMA took a long time. Somehow I have evolved to a slightly quicker version without any reference to that original.

Here's an example where the EMAs are close together. Following the rules posted in #149, we need to wait a bit for the EMAs to align themselves correctly. It's looking bullish (HHs, HLs).

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  • #514
  • May 6, 2022 4:40am May 6, 2022 4:40am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} Would that be post #149? Here's the annotated image from that post with rules. Perhaps I should go back to that! {image}
True.
And you have also been dead right, when you said results are better when we keep it simple.
I normally trade, intra day on 1h or 4h swing trades. These trade are good in a trending market but not great in choppy / less volume markets.
I was searching ways to over come this and luckily fell upon a scalping thread by Linuxtroll who exclusively scalps using rainbow system.
Today being NFP, i'm trying his method on Rajesh entry rules, albeit, take trend on 15m and trade on 1m and 5m. Results are awesome to be modest.
Just 5 pips target over and above the spread, 6 trades on EJ and AU till now, all hit target, 30 pips on a low volume day.
Have to add scalping as an armor. battle ready is half battle won.
Cheers
  • #515
  • May 9, 2022 4:04am May 9, 2022 4:04am
I'm trying to catch what might be a breakout - in early and waiting for a big move that is still (hopefully) on its way.

A problem with going long here is that this bullish move started a long way down (about 1300 pips ago on 7 March - see second chart, a zoomed out version), and as trends don't continue forever, perhaps I am pushing my luck here.

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  • #516
  • May 9, 2022 11:19am May 9, 2022 11:19am
Quoting Spudfan
I'm trying to catch what might be a breakout - in early and waiting for a big move that is still (hopefully) on its way. A problem with going long here is that this bullish move started a long way down (about 1300 pips ago on 7 March - see second chart, a zoomed out version), and as trends don't continue forever, perhaps I am pushing my luck here. {image} {image}
Stopped out at break-even. But it did get to 55 pips up initially.

Entering trades after a trend change and once the GMMAs have settled into their places remains the ideal.
  • #517
  • Edited 10:38pm May 9, 2022 10:18pm | Edited 10:38pm
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} Stopped out at break-even. But it did get to 55 pips up initially. Entering trades after a trend change and once the GMMAs have settled into their places remains the ideal.
Spudfan,
Just for your own reasons, I'm waiting for sell set up, on both EJ & GJ.
As far as im concerned, market does not have enough momentum to trade 4h swing trades or D positional trades.
That is why, Im scalping more since 3 weeks.
Take trend on 1h and trade on 15m and 5m towards 1h trend, smaller but regular profits.
Small water drops make a mighty ocean, kind.
My 2 cents though.
  • #518
  • May 10, 2022 11:50pm May 10, 2022 11:50pm
took trade yesterday during market close
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booked 50 % profit @ T1

waiting for T2. SL at break even.
  • #519
  • May 11, 2022 3:39am May 11, 2022 3:39am
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T2 hit. booked 100% profit
  • #520
  • May 11, 2022 5:07am May 11, 2022 5:07am
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the importance of fibo targets cannot be overstressed. after hitting T2 to the pip, price retraced well beyond T1 at market close. if i had not booked at T2, my profit would have been significantly less.

second important point is to trail SL at previous candle high/low if Rsi 6 goes below 20/80.... so if my T2 would not have triggred, by trailing SL to previous candle high, i would have retained significant part of my profit.
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