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The Canadian currency continues to resist the active growth of the US dollar, receiving support after the publication of data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). At the moment, the quotes of USDCAD are trading in a local uptrend at around 1.2869.

Thus, according to the statistics presented, Canada's economy grew by 1.1% in February, which is the best indicator since March 2021. Experts also note a significant strengthening of the services sectors (by 0.9%) and the production of goods (by 1.5%). Sixteen out of twenty industries grew in this period, and preliminary data show that in March, the country's GDP may continue its positive dynamics and add another 0.5% due to the recovery of the national tourism market, as coronavirus restrictions were significantly eased. More than one million tourists visited Canada in the middle of last month for the first time since the pandemic, according to the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA). As for the quarterly GDP indicator, the preliminary forecast indicates a possible growth of 1.4%, which may also have a positive impact on the national currency.

Meanwhile, the US dollar is still holding above 103 in the USD Index after Friday's release of macroeconomic statistics. The Labor Cost Index in Q1 increased by 1.4% from 1.0%, which exceeded the 1.1% expected by analysts, and the Earnings index rose by 1.20%, having risen by 1.00% a quarter earlier, while the annual Personal Consumption Expenditure Index stood at 6.6 points in March, outperforming February's 6.3 points.

On the daily chart, the price continues to trade within a wide channel, actively approaching the resistance line. Technical indicators are holding a steady signal to open long positions: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming new ascending bars trading in the buy zone.

Support levels: 1.2798, 1.2448 | Resistance levels: 1.2937, 1.31

On the daily chart, there is a downward correction as wave (2), within which wave A of (2) has formed, the development of a local correction as wave B of (2) has completed, and wave C of (2) is developing. At the moment, the fifth wave of the lower level v of C is developing, in which wave (iii) of C has formed.

If the assumption is correct, the decrease in GBPUSD will continue to the levels of 1.2243 - 1.2081. The level of 1.2867 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.


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Nasdaq 100, corporate reporting disappoints the market

Quotes of the US technology index Nasdaq 100 show a downtrend in the area of 12940.0, having overcome another annual low after the release of weak financial data of the largest components.

The most active day of the entire corporate reporting period was disappointing for investors, as such recognized leaders of the sector as the online trading platform Amazon.com Inc. and computer component designer Intel Corp. showed a negative trend. In particular, Amazon.com Inc. reported a drop in quarterly revenue to 116.44B dollars from 137.41B dollars, as well as the first quarter in seven years with a net loss of -7.56 dollars per share amid record inflation in the United States, which reached 40 years highs. Quotes of Intel Corp. are also actively declining after a drop in quarterly revenue to 18.35B dollars from 19.53B dollars recorded a quarter earlier. The company's earnings per share fell to 0.87 dollars from 1.09 dollars in the previous period. Shares of Apple Inc. also show a downtrend: the issuer recorded revenue of 97.28B dollars in Q1 2022 compared to 123.95B dollars in Q4 2021.

Index quotes continue to form a global downward channel, approaching the support line. Technical indicators are in a stable sell signal state. The range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator is expanding towards the decline, and the AO oscillator histogram is trading in the negative area forming new descending bars.

Support levels: 12580, 11700 | Resistance levels: 13480, 15220


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High probability of pair growth.

On the daily chart, the development of the third wave of the higher level (3) of 3 has begun, in which the first wave of the lower level 1 of (3) has formed and the local correction continues to develop as wave 2 of (3). At the moment, wave c of 2 is being built, within which the formation of the fifth wave of the lower level (v) of с of 2 is being completed.

If the assumption is correct, the price of XAGUSD will continue to move towards the area of 24.12 - 26.2. The level of 21.4 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

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ETHUSD has continued its steady decline since April and hit seven-week lows around 2717 last week.

Starting from the weekend, the quotes of the digital asset are attempting an upward correction; however, a serious strengthening of the rate is possible only after the price overcomes the area of 2930 - 2968.27 (Fibonacci retracement 23.6%; Murray [3/8], the center line of Bollinger Bands). In this case, the targets will be at 3125 (Murray [4/8]), 3281.25 (Murray [5/8], Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). The key level for the "bears" is at 2812.50 (Murray [2/8]), and its repeated breakdown will allow the quotes to continue their downward movement to the area of 2656.25 (Murray [1/8]) and 2500 (Murray [0/8]).

Technical indicators don't provide a clear signal:
Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, and the MACD histogram is growing in the negative zone, which confirms the continued downtrend; however, Stochastic is directed upwards, which does not exclude the development of corrective growth.

Resistance levels: 2968.27, 3125, 3281.25 | Support levels: 2812.5, 2656.25, 2500


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European currency under pressure

The euro continues to trade at extremely low levels against its major counterparts, with the exception of the US dollar. Quotes of EURGBP are currently being corrected around 0.8391.

Macroeconomic data published the day before were weak: the Manufacturing PMI of Italy fell in April to 54.5 points from 55.8 points last month, and the same indicator in Germany declined to 54.6 points from 56.9 points, and only in France the value remained unchanged at the level of 55.7 points. Thus, the Composite Manufacturing PMI for the EU countries amounted to 55.5 points, which coincided with the March statistics and signals a slowdown in the eurozone economy.
In turn, the British currency currently looks much more confident than the European one. Today, data on the UK Manufacturing PMI for April will be published, and if the actual data coincide with the analysts' forecast, which suggests that the figure will remain unchanged at 55.3 points, this may serve as additional support for the pound.

Meanwhile, the issue of energy security in the EU and the UK is becoming increasingly acute. At the end of last week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that the country would not use its veto power over the EU decision to declare an embargo on Russian oil. He also announced the readiness to stop the supply of Russian coal this summer and refuse to import oil until the end of the year against the backdrop of a serious reduction in the purchase of "blue fuel". Meanwhile, the UK Treasury Chancellor said at a meeting with representatives of energy companies that the government is considering the option of imposing an additional tax on enterprises that are not ready to invest in protecting energy security. With gas prices skyrocketing, market participants, in his opinion, should include funding for a package of measures for the design of alternative energy sources and reducing imports in their development plans, since bills for ordinary citizens have doubled in the last year alone and will continue to grow in the autumn, which led to to social tension. Thus, the UK Labor Party is calling for a lump-sum tax on excess profits earned by companies such as BP Plc. and Shell Plc.

The asset is trading within the global Diamond pattern, and after reaching the resistance line, it forms a reversal. Technical indicators are holding a global buy signal, which is starting to weaken: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator started to converge, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming descending bars, being in the buy zone.

Support levels: 0.8359, 0.8251 | Resistance levels: 0.8463, 0.8587


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Mid-term trend has changed to a downward one.

WTI Crude Oil quotes are trading around 103.66 amid the publication of data on a drop in production in China to the lowest value since February 2020 after another outbreak of coronavirus infection in the country (the April purchasing managers' index (PMI) was fixed at 47.4 points). If a lockdown or other strict quarantine restrictions are introduced in Beijing, which will become a catalyst for stopping the activities of the largest production facilities, then the demand for oil will be significantly adjusted, pushing energy prices to bearish dynamics. At the moment, the activity of oil traders remains reduced, as markets in Japan, India and Southeast Asian countries are closed at the beginning of the week due to the celebration of Labor Day.

Investors are waiting for the publication of the sixth sanctions package against the Russian economy, which, among other things, will contain steps to cancel energy supplies. Representatives of the eurozone countries intend to completely get rid of oil dependence by the end of the year, and until that time they will introduce gradual restrictions on imports. It is worth noting the unity of positions on the issue: Germany stated that it was ready to support an immediate EU embargo on the import of Russian "black gold", and the authorities of Hungary, Austria and Slovakia withdrew their veto on the oil embargo after intensive negotiations, which will now allow the procedure to be carried out in a shorter time. Earlier, the Energy Ministers of the region also rejected Russia's demand to pay for the supply of "blue fuel" in rubles.

The long-term trend, however, remains upward. Now the price is approaching the upper limit of the 108.75 corridor and, if this level is broken out, the next target of quotations will be the 117.50 mark. If the resistance of 108.75 is held by the bidders, then the asset will decline to the level of 95.

The mid-term trend changed to a downward one last week after the breakdown of the target zone 100.70–99.83 and now the reference point for the "bears" is zone 2 91.95-91.08. Also last week, the price of WTI Crude Oil reached the key trend resistance of 105.09–104.22. While this area is being held, it is worth considering short positions on the instrument.

At the moment, market participants are trying to break through the key resistance of 105.09–104.22. If successful, the trend will change to an upward one, and the target zone (113.84–112.97) will become the target for purchases.

Resistance levels: 108.75, 117.5 | Support levels: 95, 85


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Bank of America, the price may fall.

On the daily chart, the formation of the first wave of the higher level 1 has completed and a downward correction is developing as the second wave 2. At the moment, the formation of the wave (A) of 2 continues, in which the fifth wave of the lower level 5 of (A) develops.

If the assumption is right, the fall of the pair will continue to the levels of 32 - 26.32. The level of 40.3 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

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The probability of the pair reduction remains.

On the daily chart, the development of the first wave of the higher level (1) of C has completed and a downward correction as wave (2) of C continues to be formed. At the moment, the wave of the lower level A of (2) is clearly observed; in addition, the development of wave B of (2) has ended and wave C of (2) is forming, in which wave i of C is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 0.6742 - 0.6446. The level of 0.7456 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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The asset is in correction; the probability of fall is maintained.

On the daily chart, the development of the third wave of the higher level 3 was completed and the development of a downward correction as the wave 4 continues. At the moment there is a formation of the wave (A) of 4, which included the third wave of the lower level 3 of (A).

If the assumption is correct, after the wave 4 of (A) is complete, the decline of the price will continue to the levels of 101 - 83.18. The level of 144.05 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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The European currency shows ambiguous trading dynamics against the USD during the Asian session, consolidating near the 1.0516 mark.

The instrument is under pressure from high inflation, the growth of which in the eurozone in April was recorded at around 7.5%, a record high over the past 25 years. To support citizens and businesses against the backdrop of skyrocketing energy and food prices, the Italian government will allocate about 14B euros for social payments. According to Prime Minister Mario Draghi, the authorities will also provide a one-time financial assistance of 200 euros to low-income citizens (about 28M Italians will receive assistance), and will reduce taxes to market participants with energy-intensive production.

Meanwhile, data on the state of the German labor market turned out to be mixed: in April, the number of unemployed fell by 13K, although analysts expected a more significant value of -15K, and in March the figure was completely fixed at around -18K. Thus, the level of unemployment was 5.0%, which is fully in line with March statistics, but the overall rate for all eurozone countries rose to 6.8% against the forecast of 6.7%, which, however, is lower than 6.9% shown in the previous month. Relatively positive data did not lead to the continuation of a serious decline in euro quotes against the USD.

The situation may change as early as tonight, when the decision of the US Fede on the interest rate will be published. The consolidated forecast assumes an increase in the indicator by 50 basis points at once, in addition, the announcement of the start of a program to reduce the balance sheet of the department by a total of 9T dollars is expected. It is also worth noting that the statistics from JOLTS on the number of vacancies in the US labor market, which reflected the growth of the indicator to 11.549M from 11.344M a month earlier, remained almost completely ignored by the bidders.

The trading instrument is trading below the support line of the global downward channel, which indicates the strength of the downward pressure. Technical indicators hold a global sell signal: fast EMAs on the alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram continues to fall in the sell zone, forming downward bars.

Support levels: 1.0466, 1.018 | Resistance levels: 1.0756, 1.1158

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The European currency shows mixed trading dynamics, consolidating near 1.0600 and local highs from April 27. The day before, EURUSD showed the strongest growth in the last few weeks, which was the market's reaction to the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve.

As expected, the US regulator raised the interest rate by 50 basis points to the range of 0.75%–1.00% and announced the start of a quantitative tightening program, but it will not immediately reach the final volumes of purchases. From June 1, the Fed will start selling securities for a total of 47.5 billion dollars, after which it will increase the total monthly sales to 95 billion dollars within three months. The "hawks", who expected that the regulator would immediately bring purchases to the final amount, were somewhat disappointed by this decision. Additional pressure on the dollar was exerted by the rhetoric of the Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who said that the issue of raising the interest rate by 50 basis points would also be discussed at the next meetings. Thus, the risks that the indicator will be corrected at a more aggressive pace have almost completely disappeared.

In turn, pressure on the euro was exerted by frankly weak statistics on Retail Sales in the eurozone. In March, the indicator fell by 0.4% after rising by the same amount a month ago, and in annual terms, the pace slowed sharply from 5.2% to 0.8%, while analysts had expected an increase of 1.4%.

At the moment, eurozone household spending continues to grow strongly against the backdrop of rising gas and energy prices. Electricity rates, which nearly doubled in 2021, will add another 50% to the cost this year before a correction begins, according to World Bank statistics. The tightening of anti-Russian sanctions in connection with the escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine also contributes to the negative dynamics. The day before, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced the readiness to introduce a gradual embargo on crude oil for six months, and on oil products until the end of this year. If the EU countries fail to replace the volumes, the economy will face negative consequences: the already record inflation will continue to increase and it will become more difficult for companies to fulfill their obligations to customers, which will undoubtedly lead to stagnation.

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are moderately declining. The price range is slightly narrowing, staying spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD is growing, maintaining a relatively strong buy signal, being located above the signal line. Stochastic is showing similar dynamics; however, the indicator line is rapidly approaching its highs, indicating the risks of overbought EUR in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.0640, 1.069, 1.0726, 1.0767 | Support levels: 1.0576, 1.052, 1.047, 1.04


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On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) is developing, in which wave 3 of (5) appeared and the fourth wave 4 of (5) is developing. At the moment, wave a of 4 has formed, wave b of 4 has completed, and the formation of wave c of 4 has begun, in which the wave of the lower level (iii) of c is being completed.

If the assumption is right, the fall of the pair will continue to the levels of 144.62 - 131.35. The level of 192.89 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

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Prices for benchmark Brent Crude Oil are correcting, trading above the 110 dollars per barrel mark amid the disclosure of information about shady transactions for the purchase of Russian "black gold" by China.

There has been an upward turn in the market after the Financial Times published an article that disclosed information about the purchase of Russian oil by Chinese refineries from state-owned traders incognito in order to avoid US sanctions. The newspaper refers to an employee of a private oil refinery in Shandong, who said that deliveries have been carried out since the beginning of March, and these transactions have not been publicly disclosed. First of all, this news alerted officials in the USA and the EU, who are developing restrictions on energy imports from the Russian Federation.So, the EU authorities presented the sixth package of sanctions against the Russian economy, which includes steps to phase out the supply of "black gold". According to the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, the achievement of a full embargo on oil will be possible only in six months, and on petroleum products – at the end of this year. An exception will be made only for Slovakia and Hungary, which will still be able to buy resources from Russia under existing contracts, since their dependence on supplies is very high. The sixth package of sanctions will be approved on May 10 at the next meeting of the EU Council on Foreign Affairs.

On the weekly chart, the price attempts to overcome the resistance line of the global triangle pattern. Technical indicators reversed and issued a new buy signal: the fast EMAs of the alligator indicator crossed the signal line from the bottom up, and the histogram of the AO oscillator moved into the buy zone.

Support levels: 100.8, 90.1 | Resistance levels: 113.26, 129


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On the daily chart, a descending first wave of the higher level (1) of 3 has formed and the upward correction continues to develop as the second wave (2) of 3; wave C of (2) is being formed, in which the third wave of the lower level iii of C is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the growth of USDCHF will continue to the levels of 0.99 - 1.0029. The level of 0.9593 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.



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The leading index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange DAX 30 is trading at 14300. The German stock market shows a slight corrective growth after the publication of positive financial statements of the main components.

Earlier, the national postal service Deutsche Post AG presented its data, which reported revenue of 22.59B euros, which significantly exceeded the analysts' forecast, which assumed a value of 20.54B euros. Earnings per share also exceeded preliminary market estimates of 0.9309 euros and amounted to 1.0800 euros. The statistics of the world's largest automaker, Volkswagen AG, also turned out to be positive: quarterly revenue was recorded at 62.74B euros, exceeding the forecast of 61.55B euros. Earnings per share amounted to 13.05 euros, which is the highest since Q1 2020. Siemens AG's medical equipment manufacturing division, Siemens Healthineers AG, reported revenue of 5.46B euros, improving both analysts' forecast of 4.98B euros and the previous quarter's figure of 5.07B euros. Earnings per share have become a record since 2018, amounting to 0.67 euros per share.

On the daily chart, the index is preparing to start working out the local Flag pattern. Technical indicators will soon reverse and give a signal for the start of purchases: the range of EMA fluctuations on the alligator indicator has begun to actively narrow, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is approaching the transition level, forming ascending bars.

Support levels: 13555, 12460 | Resistance levels: 14500, 15710

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On the daily chart, the development of the third wave of the higher level (5) of 3 continues, in which wave 3 of (5) has formed. At the moment, there is a downward correction as the fourth wave 4 of (5), within which wave c of 4 is being formed.

If the assumption is correct, after it is finished, the growth of XAUUSD will continue to the levels of 2100 - 2200. The level of 1827.33 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

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The US dollar shows moderate growth, developing a strong "bullish" momentum formed the day before and updating record highs since March 2020.

Market activity remains subdued again, as US investors prefer to wait for the April report on the national labor market to be published at the end of the week. However, after the increase in the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve, as well as rather restrained comments by the Chair of the regulator, Jerome Powell, who promised not to exceed a reasonable rate of increase in the value by 50 basis points, interest in macroeconomic publications has noticeably decreased. One way or another, the labor market is still one of the key indicators for the US Federal Reserve when making decisions on monetary policy. Forecasts for the current report are quite optimistic and suggest an increase in Nonfarm Payrolls by almost 400 thousand (against 431 thousand last month) and a decrease in the Unemployment Rate from 3.6% to 3.5%.
Last Monday, the head of the Swiss Federal Department of Economic Affairs, Education and Research Guy Parmelin admitted that in the event of an embargo of Russian oil and gas, the situation in the national economy would become much more complicated. Against this background, the Federal Council decided to create by the end of this year an organization to overcome crisis situations in the gas industry and possible shortages of “blue fuel”, as well as a tracking system that will control possible risks of electricity shortages at an early stage.
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are steadily growing. The price range is expanding but it fails to conform to the surge of “bullish” activity at the moment. MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having retreated from its highs at the beginning of the week is again reversing into a horizontal plane, still indicating the risks of the instrument being overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.99, 0.9950, 1 | Support levels: 0.9847, 0.98, 0.977, 0.97


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The British pound is trading ambiguously against the US currency during the morning session, consolidating near 1.2360. After a sharp decline in the trading instrument the day before, which led to an update of record lows since June 2020, trading participants are in no hurry to open new positions, preferring to take short profits.

Noticeable pressure on quotes was put by the results of the meeting of the Bank of England on monetary policy. As expected, the regulator raised the rate by 25 basis points and brought it to a 13-year high of 1.00% per annum in order to contain the maximum rate of inflation, which reached a 30-year high of around 7%. The decision was taken unanimously, which allows us to hope for the smooth implementation of further plans for a gradual tightening of monetary policy. By Q2 2023, it is planned to reach the rate level of 2.5%. The Bank also said that it expects consumer prices in the UK to rise by 10.25% this year (the highest since 1982) due to the Ukrainian crisis and coronavirus restrictions in China. Department officials have warned that prices are likely to rise faster than the incomes of many citizens, exacerbating the cost-of-living crisis. In general, according to the regulator, in the last quarter of the year, the country's economy may expect a recession. The latest comments have greatly disappointed investors and put pressure on the pound's position. In addition, officials have adjusted downward the forecast for GDP growth in 2023 from 1.25% to 1.00%.
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are steadily declining. The price range is expanding, making way to new record lows for the "bears". MACD has formed a new sell signal (the histogram is again below the signal line), and Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, reversing downwards approximately in the middle of its area.

Resistance levels: 1.2400, 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2674 | Support levels: 1.2323, 1.2250, 1.2200, 1.215


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On the daily chart, GBPJPY is correcting above 157.96 and 159 levels. On the 4H time frame, the pair violated the ascending trendline with a weak selling force. The breach could be a whipsaw. However, if the breakout is correct, the instrument will target 157.96 and 159 supports. This scenario remains operational as long as GBPJPY trades below the 25 daily moving average and the descending trendline.
On the other hand, the uptrend continues if the bulls breach the descending trendline and the 25 moving average. In this scenario, the pair will target 164.24 and 168.42.


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