Elliottwave-Forecast.com - Official Thread w/ Analysis Blogs

Elliott Wave View: Dow Futures (YM) Corrective Rally in Progress

Short Term Elliott Wave View in Dow Futures (YM) suggests the cycle from April 21, 2022 high is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from April 21 high, wave (A) ended at 33015 and rally in wave (B) ended at 33968. Internal of wave (B) is unfolding as a zigzag in lesser degree. Up from wave (A), wave A ended at 33611, pullback in wave B ended at 33155, and wave C rally ended at 33968.

Wave (C) lower is in progress with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse. Down from wave (B), wave ((i)) ended at 33672 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 33903. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 32820, wave ((iv)) ended at 33145, and wave ((v)) of 1 ended at 32358. Index is now correcting the decline from April 29 peak in wave 2 before it resumes lower. Up from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 33148 and wave ((b)) dips ended at 32806. Expect wave ((c)) to continue higher with possible target to 33591 – 33776 to end wave 2 before the decline resumes. Near term, as far as pivot at 33968 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for further downside.

YM_F 30 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

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Dow Futures (YM) Elliott Wave Video


Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/new...ally-progress/
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$FXB British Pound ETF; Can it Bounce or Not?
May 3, 2022 By EWF Lewis
$FXB British Pound ETF; Can it Bounce or Not?
Firstly the British Pound Sterling tracking ETF fund FXB inception date was 6/21/2006. The bearish cycle lower from the November 2007 highs in FXB is favored ended in this analysis. The British Pound Sterling has been the currency of the Bank of England since 1694. Considering that date was back before there was a US Dollar to compare with and data readily available suggests price was at 2.6440 in 1972. Spot price in the GBPUSD foreign exchange was 1.0520 in 1995. Price was at 2.1161 in 2007 where it peaked and turned lower. This is where we will shift the focus to the FXB highs at 211.44 in November 2007.
Secondly the bearish cycle from the November 2007 into the January 2009 lows was clearly an Elliott Wave impulse in 5 waves. From there into the August 2009 highs appeared to be three waves. There into the May 2010 lows appeared best as an impulse wave. From there into the July 2014 highs appeared to be an Elliott Wave flat correction. The analysis continues below the monthly chart.

Thirdly the turn lower from the July 2014 highs appears to be an impulse lower into the January 2017 lows. Price appeared to print a double three into the April 2018 highs. From there it appears another impulse completed in March 2020.
In conclusion : As it appears right now the instrument completed a five wave cycle up from the March 2020 lows in May of 2021. The instrument can end a wave ((2)) pullback in the blue box area highlighted to correct the cycle up from the March 2020 lows. While above there the British Pound can continue a longer term cycle higher against the dollar.
Thanks for looking. Feel free to come visit our website. Furthermore please check out our services for 14 days to see if we can be of help. Kind regards & good luck trading. Lewis Jones of the ElliottWave-Forecast.com Team
Source:https://elliottwave-forecast.com/sto...bounce-or-not/
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Chevron ($CVX) Still Powering Higher
May 3, 2022 By EWF Robb
The last time I covered Chevron was in March 2022. And I was expecting a larger cycle to pull back in ((4)) before resuming higher. Lets take a look at the view I was presenting back then and compare to what the market gave us.
Chevron Elliott Wave view March 2022:

At the time, with the evidence the market was presenting, the wave count was favouring bottom set in ((4)). Black ((5)) was favoured to be underway, and Red III would peak, with a pullback in Red IV Against the March 2020 low. There is something we like to call “the middle zone”, where buyers and sellers are deciding direction of the market. While price was below ((3)) and above ((4)), the market was deciding direction. Sometimes an instrument wants to do the double correction. In this case, CVX wasn’t quite done with the ((4)). And in fact, it presented a great opportunity for long positions. Lets take a look at the current view.
Chevron Elliott Wave view May 2022:

After peaking in the wave ((3)), the market decided to have a textbook pullack. The blue blue box equal leg area presented itself from 154.83 to 143.65. And when priced dipped into the box, buyers have reacted. Again the market will be deciding if it wants to do further downside, or of the ((4)) low will be respected. Any buyers from the blue box should be taking partial profit at 50% back from the recent connector swing high to get risk free as soon as possible. We do not like to sell it, we prefer to look for pullbacks in 3, 7 or 11 swing to blue boxes where buyers can enter for a bounce in 3 swing at least. if $CVX wants to do more downside, we still like to look for blue boxes further down where buyers will enter for a bounce.
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Using proper risk management is absolutely essential when trading or investing in a volatile stocks. Elliott Wave counts can evolve quickly, be sure to have your stops in and define your risk when trading.
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Source:https://elliottwave-forecast.com/sto...wering-higher/
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Hello

Elliott Wave View: AUDUSD Rally is Likely Just a Counter Trend

Short Term Elliott Wave View in AUDUSD suggests cycle from April 5 high ended at 0.7027 in wave (1). Down from April 5 high, wave 1 ended at 0.7396 and rally in wave 2 ended at 0.7493. Pair then extends lower in wave 3 towards 0.705, and rally in wave 4 ended at 0.718. Final leg lower wave 5 ended at 0.7027 which completed wave (1). Wave (2) rally is currently in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure.

Up from wave (1), wave ((a)) ended at 0.7147 and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 0.7076. Expect wave ((c)) to end soon and this should complete wave W. Pair should then pullback in wave X in 3 swing before it turns higher in wave Y as another 3 swing zigzag structure. At this point, we can’t use Fibonacci extension to measure the potential target for wave (2) as we don’t have wave W and X fully formed yet. We could use Fibonacci retracement of wave (1) to estimate target for wave (2). A 50% – 76.4% retracement of wave (1) comes at 0.734 – 0.751 where wave (2) may be complete. Near term, as far as pivot at 0.7658 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for further downside.

AUDUSD 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

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AUDUSD Elliott Wave Video


Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/new...counter-trend/
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$SPX: The Expanded Flat, Which Tricked Buyers Last Month
May 3, 2022 By EWF Eric
The Expanded Flat is one of trickiest structures in the Elliott Wave Theory. The structure comes with a strong reaction after new highs are made. But the idea is that the reaction comes in five waves, which confuse wavers. As a result, wavers often get trapped by the structure. When Mr. Elliott developed the theory back in the 1930s, he did not have the tools which we have today. We at EWF have developed a series of new rules. Some of those rules are explained in the article here. As we explained, the new set of rules allow us to identify the trap, so we can warn members and followers when it happens.
Correction in the market happens in the sequence of three, seven or eleven swings. The Expanded Flat always shows a divergence in the fifth swing but it is also showing five channels lower. It does not form a corresponding sequence in the momentum indicators however, which makes the sequence corrective. Here is what the Expanded Flat looks like in the Elliott Wave Theory:

As we can see the B wave trades above the beginning of the A wave. However, the market reacted lower, and pass the low of wave A. The reaction lower comes in five waves making all the wavers chase the wrong upside breakout. As we mentioned above, it is very tricky, and only having a new set of rules, and understanding of the market nature sequences will make traders avoid the traps.
Back in early March 2022, the $SPX makes new lows below the 01.24.2022. However, it never reached the 100% from the 01.04.2022 peak. The low comes with momentum divergence against the 01.24.2022. Back in the 1930s it was easy to get trapped by the market, but in 2022 it was easy for us to be able to see the trap. Here is the 4 Hour chart provided to members during 03.26.2022 update showing the proposed Flat taking place and the turn lower.
$SPX – 4 hour update from 3.26.2022 :

The Index ended the 5 waves structure and then we called lower early in the turn. Our members already knew at the moment that the sequences was incomplete. Consequently, a sell-off was coming into the ((Y)). Market turned lower as expected above. Now it is ending the seven swing structure by erasing the momentum divergence.
$SPX – 4 hour update from 4.11.2022 :

Check out the following video, which explains whole idea and how the sequence identified.

Source:https://elliottwave-forecast.com/vid...rs-last-month/
#elliottwave #trading #SPX

Elliott Wave View: Russell 2000 (RTY) Turning Lower post FOMC

Short Term Elliott Wave View in Russell 2000 (RTY) suggests the decline from March 29, 2022 high is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from March 29 peak, wave 1 ended at 1966.6 and rally in wave 2 ended at 2060.90. Index then resumes lower in wave 3 towards 1903.50 and rally in wave 4 ended at 1957.60. Final leg lower wave 5 ended at 1834.50 which ended wave (A).

Wave (B) rally is proposed complete at 1951.85. However, the Index still needs to break below ave (A) at 1834.50 to validate this view. Internal of wave (B) unfolded as a zigzag in lesser degree. Up from wave (A), wave A ended at 1908.20, pullback in wave B ended at 1867.80 and wave C higher ended at 1951.85. This completed wave (B) in higher degree. Index has turned lower in wave (C). Near term, expect wave 1 to end soon, then Index should rally in wave 2 to correct the decline from wave (B) before it resumes lower. As far as pivot at 1951.85 high stays intact in the first degree, expect rally to fail in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.

RTY 45 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

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Russell 2000 Elliott Wave Video


Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/new...resumed-lower/
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UK Oil (Brent) – One more push prior to advance
May 6, 2022 By EWFZorrays
UK Brent Oil has been on a bullish trend since the lows of April 2020 – the start of the Covid19 pandemic. Despite the fears of UK Oil dropping in value we witnessed price climbed from 20.00 to 130.00 within the space of two years.
Ever since the highs we have been within a corrective nature in a bearish counter-trend. Nevertheless, we remain bullish on UK Oil from at least 10000 ft high.
UK Oil – Weekly time frame 5th May 2022

We are essentially calling for another push within that corrective cycle of wave ((2)). This would be before seeing a continuation to the upside into wave ((3)) of (II). Wave 2 corrective cycles are more price based corrections. We ideally want to see some form of a deep correction such as Zigzag or a variant of a Zigzag such as a WXY double correction.
Lets have a deeper look at how wave ((2)) is unfolding.
UK Oil – Daily time frame 5th May 2022

So, this is developing as a double correction which therefore means we have two corrections i.e. ZigZag joined with an (X) connector in the middle. We are calling for another low into 80.00 potentially subject to remaining above 65.74 prior to seeing the next advance into wave ((3)).
As time is going on, we can see that the market sentiment according to our count is that overall there are more appreciation left as opposed to expecting a long term depreciation within the price. UK Oil prices are expected to increase based on the war we have been witnessing between Russia and Ukraine as the United Kingdom decided to slap sanctions on Russia. We can expect further set of sanctions also pushed from the EU by the end of 2022.
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Source:https://elliottwave-forecast.com/unc...prior-advance/
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USDSGD Elliott Wave : Buying The Dips At the Blue Box Area
May 6, 2022 By EWF Vlada
USDSGD is another instrument that has given us trading opportunity lately . Break of November 2021 peak made bullish sequence in the cycle from the January 2021 low. The price structure is suggesting further rally within that cycle. We recommended members to avoid selling the pair at this stage while favoring the long side. Recently the pair made clear 3 waves pull back and found buyers at the blue box as we expected. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the charts of USDSGD published in members area of the website and explain the Elliott Wave structure and trading strategy.
USDSGD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 05.04.2022
Current view suggests USDSGD is doing 4 red pull back against the 1.35965 low. We believe correction can still be in progress. The price is showing incomplete lower low sequences in the short term cycle from ((x)) peak- 05.02 , suggesting more downside toward blue box area : 1.3756-1.3678 . As the main trend is bullish we expect buyers to appear at the blue box for 3 waves bounce at least. Strategy is the same as always, once bounce reaches 50 Fibs against the ((x)) black high, we will make long position risk free ( put SL at BE). Invalidation for the trade would be break of marked invalidation level 1.3678.
As our members know, Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a bounce.
You can learn more about Elliott Wave Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.

USDSGD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 05.06.2022
USDSGD has found buyers at the Blue Box area and we are getting good reaction from there. Pull back made clear 7 swings and completed at 1.37225 low. The rally from the blue box reached and exceeded 50 fibs against the ((x)) connector. Consequently, members who have taken the long trades at the blue box now enjoying profits in a risk free trades. Now we would need to see break of 1 red peak in order to confirm next leg up is in progress. Once the pair breaks above 1 red peak ( 04/28), the pair will become bullish again in near term and might offer some new buying opportunities in the short term dips against the 1.37225 low.
Keep in mind that market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room

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Source:https://elliottwave-forecast.com/tra...dips-blue-box/
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What is the correct risk benefit ratio for trading?
May 7, 2022 By EWFLuis
Capital management is the most important thing when you invest or operate in the stock market. Within management systems there is much talk of risk benefit relation. How much are you willing to lose to win a certain margin. For example, I am willing to lose 0.50% of my capital to earn 2.00%, this would be a risk benefit ratio of 1:4. I am willing to risk a dollar to gain $4, to write it in simple terms. Traders typically make this relationship using points, pips, dollars, etc., which is incorrect. It is a very common mistake because the instruments we trade do not always have the same value per point or per pip; therefore, the risk-benefit return will not always be the same. I recommend you calculate the risk-benefit based on a percentage as indicated in the example.
The correct relation between risk benefit
Many traders often use ratios as 1:1, 1:1.5, 1:2 when trading or just don’t use them at all. A risk benefit ratio is used to protect the capital, so that in the long term you do not lose it. But which of these ratios is correct? For that, we must use a statistical concept called Mathematical Expectation. The mathematical expectation, also called the expected value, is equal to the sum of the probabilities that a random event exists, multiplied by the value of the random event. In other words, it is the mean value of a data set.
With this concept we have created a table where we compare the number of successful operations vs the risk/reward ratio (R:R):

On the left side we have the percentages of success and on the top the R:R ratio. The percentages in red are losses and in blue are gains. The value of the percentages is the long-term profit if you were risking 10% of your capital per trade.
We can see that if we have 50% of winning trades and we always use a 1:1 ratio, the profits would be 0%. In the table, we are not considering commissions or rollover. This means that if you have 50% of winning trades with a 1:1 ratio, the result is long-term losses.
What happen with scalpers? A scalper typically has an inverse risk-reward ratio. He is willing to lose more for a small profit. For example, 10:3 or 2:1. If we see the 2:1 ratio in the table, it means that the trader must win 70% of the time in order to generate profits.
We can continue navigating the table. Let’s look at a 1:1.5 ratio. This tells me that in order to make long-term profits I need to have at least 50% winning trades. If we use a 1:1.8 ratio, we need 40% winning trades to make a profit in the long run. Therefore, the better the R:R ratio, the fewer hits you need to make a profit.
How to know what our best risk-benefit ratio is? Well, you must try. If you start with a 1:1 relationship and after 10 trades you only have 5 winning trades, it is not for you. You have to raise the R:R ratio. If you get your ratio up to 1:1.5 and still keep the number of winners at 50% then that R:R go with you. And so, you continue to raise the R:R ratio until the number of hits goes down and then you compare it. Example: You raise the ratio to 1:2 and the number of winning trades drops to 40% does not go with you, compared to the ratio of 1:1.5. With a 1:1.5 ratio you have a 25% return, but with a 1:2 ratio you have a 20% return.
You must continue testing until the ratio 1:3 at least to know what your number of winning trades is. It is possible that by increasing your ratio to 1:2.5, your number of hits will remain at 40% which would result in a 40% return in the long term, much higher than the 25% of the previous 1:1.5.
The answer to the question, what is the correct risk benefit ratio for trading? It depends on each one. Try and become a real professional trader and don’t be just another gambler. Start looking for the risk-benefit ratio so that your operations have the highest possible return. Do not forget to calculate your risk benefit based on percentage of capital.
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Source:https://elliottwave-forecast.com/tra...ratio-trading/
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CVX (Chevron) in Bullish Market Despite the General Market Selloff
May 9, 2022 By EWFHendra
Chevron Corporation (CVX) is an American multinational energy company. It is the second largest oil company in the United States and has operation in more than 180 countries. Chevron is involved in the entire spectrum of supply chain within the oil and natural gas industries from exploration, production, refining, marketing, transport, and sales. Due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, the U.S and European countries have tried to reduce dependency on Russia’s oil and energy exports. Moreover, the West has pressured and threatened other countries with secondary sanction if they do business with Russia.
This has caused the reduction of supply in the energy market. As a result, energy price such as oil, diesel, and natural gas have spiked higher contributing to the high inflation data. This elevated price may remain here for a longer time as there doesn’t seem to be an end in the war anytime soon. Moreover, even when the war ends, sanctions might still be intact and European countries will not go back to their previous relationship with Russia anytime soon. Despite the brutal selloff in high tech sector and general market, energy sector remains one of the bright sides. Below we look at the Elliott Wave outlook of Chevron Corporation.
Chevron Monthly Elliott Wave Chart

Monthly Elliott Wave of CVX suggests the rally to $135.1 on July 2014 ended wave ((I)). Pullback in wave ((II)) ended at $51.60 on March 2020 low as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. The stock has resumed higher in wave ((III)) with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse. Expect a few more highs to end wave (I) before it pullback in wave (II) and extends higher again.
Chevron Daily Elliott Wave Chart

Daily Chart of Chevron above suggests rally from wave ((II)) low is nesting as an impulse. Up from wave ((II)), wave I ended at $103.59 and pullback in wave II ended at $65.16. Wave III is currently in progress with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave II, wave ((1)) ended at $113.11 and wave ((2)) ended at $92.86. Wave ((3)) ended at $174.76, and pullback in wave ((4)) ended at $151.36. Expect stock to continue higher within wave ((5)) of III as far as it stays above $151.36.
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Source:https://elliottwave-forecast.com/sto...arket-selloff/
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MAA : Expect Pullback Before Rally Resumes
May 9, 2022 By EWFRaj
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc., (MAA) is a real estate investment trust (REIT), focused on delivering full-cycle & superior investment performance for shareholders through the ownership, management, acquisition, development & redevelopment of quality apartment communities in the southeast, southwest & mid-Atlantic regions of United states. It comes under Real Estate sector & trades as “MAA” ticker at NYSE.
Since the 2009, MAA made a biggest pullback in March-2020 & made an intermediate low at $82.00. Thereafter it made all time high at $231.63 on 12/31/2021 as the part of a 5 swing impulse sequence. Currently, it favors a pullback in proposed 5-3-5 zigzag structure against the cycle from March-2020 low.
MAA – Elliott Wave Latest Daily View:
It made an intermediate low of $82.00 on 3/23/2020 low during global selloff during early-2020. Thereafter, it placed ((1)) at $127.74 high on 6/08/2020 & ((2)) at $108.06 low on 6/24/2020 low. ((2)) was slightly below 0.382 retracement of previous cycle. While above there, it started third wave of third wave extension & ended ((3)) at $207.69 high on 10/28/2021. It favored ended ((4)) at $197.92 low as a very shallow correction. Finally, it finished ((5)) at $231.63 high on 12/31/2021 as wave I. While below there, it favors wave II correction in proposed zigzag correction towards $179.88 – $156.54 area before upside resumes.
Below $231.63 high, it favored ended ((A)) at $193.91 low & ((B)) at $217.64 high on 4/06/2022. It already breaks below ((A)) low, calling for more weakness to continue towards $179.88 – $156.54 as blue box area. Currently, it favors lower (3) of ((C)) & expect a small bounce followed by new low to finish the correction of II before upside resumes or at least a 3 swing bounce. We expect it to extend higher from blue box area for next leg higher or at least a bounce.
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Source:https://elliottwave-forecast.com/sto...rally-resumes/
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Twitter: Good Timing For The Buyer, Bad Timing For The Sellers
May 3, 2022 By EWF Eric
Twitter (TWTR) has been in the news later when the board agreed to sell the company to Elon Musk for $54.20 per share, around 44 billion dollars. The deal has not been completed, and it is pending to the best of our knowledge. We, at Elliottwave-Forecast looked at the symbol’s technical side and the future looks promising.
Twitter Weekly Chart From May 2nd

The chart above is the Grand Super Cycle for Twitter. We can see there is a series of higher highs and higher lows. The idea in the Elliott Wave Theory can be in three different scenarios. Follow our view of World Indices, which are explained in the following Seminar https://elliottwave-forecast.com/vid...a-super-rally/. The idea of three waves into new highs makes the symbol bullish and new highs will happen. At this stage, we are labeling a nest into a wave (III) extension, which is a series of (I) (II), I-II. The idea makes II react off a perfect Blue Box area, which is from where the High-Frequency Computers enter the Market. As we always say, we are trading in 2022; consequently, computers are part of the market. The three possible scenarios are either extension in wave I, extension in wave III, or extension in wave V.

The chart above is a representation of the three possible extensions. These show how Twitter fix the criteria in each one of the extension and how the buyers should extend higher to a minimum new high of around $99.00. The Elliott Wave Theory is famous for sequences of five waves, as shown in the following chart:
At this stage, $TWTR is only showing three waves, so more upside should be happening to a minimum of complete five waves within an extended wave I.
Twitter 4 hour Chart From May 2nd

Twitter chart shows a nice reaction higher in wave ((1)) and it is correcting now. We should see buyers around the $41.00 area if the market drop into the blue box. A dip into the $41.00-$36.00 area will make the board feel good, but they are misreading the price action. The selling will be a bad deal in a few years ahead and the buying will be fine. As we always say, trade the price action and avoid the news, then good times will be for Twitter buyers.

Source:https://elliottwave-forecast.com/vid...r-bad-sellers/
#elliottwave #trading #twitter

Elliott Wave View: Litecoin (LTCUSD) Has Scope for More Downside

Short Term Elliott Wave View in Litecoin (LTCUSD) suggests cycle from March 30, 2022 peak is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from March 30, wave ((i)) ended at 119.11 and wave ((ii)) ended at 129.50. The crypto currency then extended lower in wave ((iii)) towards 101.93, wave ((iv)) ended at 114.75. Final leg lower wave ((v)) ended at 94.2 which completed wave 1. Wave 2 corrective rally ended at 107.22 with internal as a zigzag.

Up from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 101.77 and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 97.44. Final leg higher wave ((c)) ended at 107.22 which completed wave 2. Litecoin has extended lower in wave 3 and broken below wave 1. Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 92.73 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 97.19. Wave ((iii)) is in progress and should see another leg lower to complete. Expect a series of 3 and 4s to the downside before cycle from March 30, 2022 peak is completed as 5 waves. Near term rally should continue to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 107.22 high remains intact.

LTCUSD 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

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Litecoin Elliott Wave Video


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Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/new...cope-downside/

NZDJPY: Bullish Sequence and Trading Strategy
May 9, 2022 By Daud Bhatti
In this blog, we will look at the strong rally in NZDJPY which took place this year, talk about the sequence, what it means for the pair and also what our trading strategy is going forward. We will look at a sequence chart and also a chart showing the extreme area down from April 20, 2022 peak and highlight the next extreme area where we can see buyers entering the market to resume the rally or produce 3 waves reaction higher at least.
NZDJPY Bullish Sequence Since January 28, 2022 Low
Chart below shows NZDJPY ended a cycle from 03.2020 low at 10.2021 peak. This rally was in 5 waves as we can see a clear impulsive advance. This was followed by a 3 waves pull back which ended at 01.28.2022 low. Then pair resumed the rally and went on to make a new high above 10.2021 peak. Break above 10.2021 peak created an incomplete bullish sequence and opened extension higher. Sequence is bullish against 01.28.2022 low and as dips hold above this level, expect buyers to remain in control and appear in the dips in 3, 7 or 11 swings. While above 01.28.2022 low, next target area remains to be 98.31 – 103.74.

NZDJPY: Elliott Wave Structure Down from April 20, 2022 Peak
Decline from 04.20.2022 peak is unfolding as a Zigzag Elliott wave structure which is a 5-3-5 structure. In this structure, wave A is in 5 waves, wave B is in 3 waves and wave C is also in 5 waves. Wave B could be any corrective structure. We can see a clear 5 waves decline from 04.20.2022 peak to 04.26.2022 low which we have labelled as wave (A). This was followed by 3 waves bounce to 04.28.2022 peak and now pair has broken below 04.26.2022 low which creates a short-term incomplete bearish sequence. As bounces fail below 05.04.2022 (84.82) and more importantly below 04.28.2022 (85.00), expect more downside towards 81.29 – 78.74 where buyers should appear and resume the rally for next leg or produce 3 waves reaction higher at least. Alternative view is that bounce from the blue box will fail in 3 swings for another 3 swings extension lower to complete a double correction before higher again. Once the reaction from blue box reaches 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 04.28.2022 (85.41), buyers from blue box should be able to eliminate risk on the trade and get into a risk free position and buy then buy again lower at next equal legs area in case of a larger double correction to the downside.
Source:https://elliottwave-forecast.com/for...ding-strategy/
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LTCUSD: Blue Box Shorts Reached The Target
May 9, 2022 By Daud Bhatti
LTCUSD has seen tremendous selling over the last few weeks. It recently hit 100% Fibonacci extension down from February 10, 2022 peak down to February 24, 2022 low projected lower from March 30, 2022 peak. In this article, we will look at how our members knew that rally from February 24, 2022 low to March 30, 2022 was a counter trend rally and we highlighted the selling area with a blue box for members. Members knew sellers should appear in the blue box to resume the decline for a new low below February 24, 2022 low or for 3 waves reaction lower at least.
LTCUSD 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis: 24 March, 2022
Chart below shows decline from 11.10.2021 to be a 5 waves impulsive and it reached $120.49 reached on January 10, 2022. This was followed by a 3-3-5 running FLAT Elliott wave correction to complete at $144.13 on February 10, 2022. After this Litecoin resumed the decline and registered a new low at $91.74 on February 24, 2022.
LTCUSD started bouncing again and we highlighted $121.54 – $136.57 as 100 – 161.8% Fibonacci extension area with a blue box and as an area for 3 waves corrective bounce to complete. Our members knew a 3 waves advance should end in the mentioned and decline should resume while price stayed below 161.8% Fibonacci extension level at $136.57 or we should get 3 waves reaction lower at least.
Blue Boxes are High-Frequency areas which are based in a relationship of sequences, cycles and calculated using extensions. We refer to them as High Frequency trading areas, we prefer blue boxes to enter in direction of the trend because blue Boxes are areas where majority of the times, both buyers and sellers again in direction of next
move for 3 swings at least and hence why they present high probability / low risk areas to enter the market in direction of the trend.

LTCUSD: 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis: 9 May, 2022
Chart below shows sellers did appear in the blue box area and LTCUSD resumed the decline, it dropped to a new low below February 24, 2022 low and today it reached 100% Fibonacci extension target at $81.94 which means it dropped $57 (42%) from the blue box high within 6 weeks providing a nice move for the clients. It already reached the minimum target at $81.94 but structure from blue box high is not a complete 5 waves move yet and we expect the bounces to fail for more downside to complete the structure.
Source:https://elliottwave-forecast.com/tra...eached-target/
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$SLV Further Weakness Expected In The Larger Cycles
May 10, 2022 By EWF Lewis
$SLV Further Weakness Expected In The Larger Cycles
Firstly there is data back to when the ETF fund began in 2006 as seen on the weekly chart shown below. The fund made a low in 2008 at 8.45 that has not since been taken out in price. This analysis assumes from the October 2008 lows to the April 2011 highs was a larger degree impulse cycle up from the all time Silver lows.
Secondly, the decline from the April 2011 highs down to the May 2011 lows was five waves. Price held below the April 2011 highs during the bounce from the May 2011 lows to the August 2011 high.
The analysis continues below the weekly chart.

Thirdly, the cycle from the August 2011 high now appears complete. The red wave I, expanded flat wave II bounce & wave III decline to the December 2015 lows best looks as two Elliott Wave impulses. The bounce to the August 2016 high was strong enough to suggest it had corrected the cycle from the red wave II highs in February 2012. From the August 2016 high the sideways to lower decline appears to be an Elliott Wave triangle structure. This ended the wave “E” at the February 2020 highs. From this point in time the instrument printed another Elliott wave impulse lower into the March 2020 lows at 10.86.
In conclusion. Down from the April 2011 highs SLV exhibits qualities of an Elliott Wave zig zag structure that now appears complete. This is due to the bounce from the March 2020 lows. It was strong enough and apparently in a five wave impulse. This suggests the cycle lower from the 2011 highs had ended. Also the correction of the cycle up from the all time lows had completed at the March 2020 lows. While below the March 2022 highs the metal can see another low in the highlighted blue box area before a larger degree turn higher again.
Thanks for looking. Feel free to come visit our website & check out our services for 14 days trial to see if we can be of help.
Kind regards & good luck trading. Lewis Jones of the ElliottWave-Forecast.com Team
Source:https://elliottwave-forecast.com/sto...larger-cycles/
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Elliott Wave View: Oil (CL) to Correct Further Downside

After spiking to 130.50 on March 7 at the height of the Russia-Ukraine war, Oil (CL) has started to pullback and consolidate. Oil shows an incomplete bearish sequence from the peak on March 7, 2022 favoring further downside. Short Term Elliott Wave View in Oil (CL_F) suggests the cycle from March 7, 2022 is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from March 7 high, wave (W) ended at 93.53 and rally in wave (X) ended at 116.64. Wave (Y) is currently in progress as a double three in lesser degree. Down from wave (Y), wave W ended at 93.93. The 1 hour chart below shows the rally to 111.31 ended wave X.

Down from wave X, wave (i) ended at 106.45 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 111.18. Oil then extends lower in wave (iii) towards 100.44, and rally in wave (iv) ended at 104.16. Expect wave (v) of ((a)) to end soon, then Oil should rally in wave ((b)) to correct the decline from May 5, 2022 high before it resumes lower. Potential target lower is 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension from March 24, 2022 peak at 82.3 – 87.8 area.

Oil (CL) 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Oil Elliott Wave Video


Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/new...rect-downside/
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Elliott Wave View: AUDJPY Rally Should Fail for More Downside

Short Term View in AUDJPY shows a bearish sequence from April 20, 2022 high favoring further downside. The decline from April 20 is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from April 20, wave (A) ended at 90.41 and rally in wave (B) ended at 94.02. Internal of wave (B) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (A), wave W ended at 93.52 and pullback in wave X ended at 91.45. Pair then extended higher in wave Y towards 94.01 which completed wave (B).

Pair has resumed lower in wave (C). Internal of wave (C) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (B), wave 1 ended at 89.72 and rally in wave 2 ended at 91.76. Near term, as far as rally fails below 91.76, and more importantly below 94.01, expect pair to extend lower. Potential target lower is 100% – 123.6% fibonacci extension from April 20 high at

Down from wave X, wave (i) ended at 106.45 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 111.18. Oil then extends lower in wave (iii) towards 100.44, and rally in wave (iv) ended at 104.16. Expect wave (v) of ((a)) to end soon, then Oil should rally in wave ((b)) to correct the decline from May 5, 2022 high before it resumes lower. Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension from March 24, 2022 peak at 85.45 – 88.7 area.

AUDJPY 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

AUDJPY Elliott Wave Video


Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/new...fail-downside/
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Chewy.com ($CHWY) Can the lows hold?
May 11, 2022 By EWF Robb
Chewy.com is an e-commerce company that specializes in pet food. Along with many other stocks, prices started a new cycle higher in March 2020. Chewy is now correcting that cycle and currently going fairly deep, and threatening to make new all time lows. Lets take a look at the company profile and see what they do:
“Chewy, Inc. is an American online retailer of pet food and other pet-related products based in Dania Beach, Florida. In 2017, Chewy was acquired by PetSmart for $3.35 billion, which was the largest ever acquisition of an e-commerce business at the time. The company completed its initial public offering in 2019, raising $1 billion.
Following the acquisition, Cohen remained CEO and operated the business largely as an independent unit of PetSmart. Between 2017 and 2018, Chewy’s sales increased from $2.1 billion to $3.5 billion, with 66% of sales coming from customers signed up for automatic recurring shipments. In 2018, Chewy created Chewy Pharmacy, an online pharmacy providing pet-targeted prescription medications. Orders placed through the business are completed in coordination with a team of in-house veterinarians.”
Lets take a look at the view from January 2022.
Elliottwave view January 2022:

At the time, I was still looking for more swings lower to complete the correction. However, prices are at the blue box where a bounce can take place. This is the area where we do not like to sell anymore. Lets take a look at the updated view from May 2022.
Elliottwave View May 2022:


This stock made new all time highs in February 2021. After that peak, a deep correction has taken place. From the all time low @ 20.54, the stock has rallied in 5 waves and peaked in February of 2021. Medium term term view from Feb 2021 peak set @ 120.00 . The pullback since the peak over a year ago, has been a fairly clean pullback. There is a clear 5 waves down into ((A)), bounce in ((B)). As a result, the stock is declining in the final leg before a larger bounce may take place. Currently, the momentum is suggesting that blue (3) and (4) are set and as long as the 20,54 low remains intact, this instrument can still be correcting that 20.54 low.
It should be noted that there is a blue box that is present, from the 41.92 to invalidation level at 20.54. The blue boxes are areas where algos and buyers typically enter for a bounce. Prices are very close do invalidtion the bullish thesis. For now, we like to wait for some other sectors and indices like $SPY, $XLK, $XLY to reach some equal leg before buying some of these names. It can be choppy sideways to lower in the near term.
Risk Management
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Source:https://elliottwave-forecast.com/sto...can-lows-hold/
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