The Swamp | Page 5006 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: The Swamp
Exit Attachments

The Swamp

  • #100,101
  • Apr 30, 2022 11:23am Apr 30, 2022 11:23am
Cliff notes.. Food will cost more. Poorer people will pay a higher % of their income for food. That leaves less money for Walmart's none food items. Mostly made in China/Asia( less workers needed, so those workers buy less). That makes China need less raw materials from Australia (less workers needed in that industry). It means less Caterpillar orders in the U.S (means less Caterpillar workers).
I use this as a template. Caterpillar isn't the only place that makes heavy machinery. Europe has Volvo, and Japan has Komatsu. You can check those if you like. Walmart isn't the only one either. Its just a generic pulse. Use you brain to find others if you need more evidence. Copper and oil speak for themselves. Oil isn't the best indicator now because of Russia. But when added with copper. It is a good signal on the world economic health. Copper plus heavy machinery is better than copper alone. Heavy machinery stocks are forward looking. Because of purchase orders (the future). All U.S. recessions since 1970 started with a spike in oil. Oil is in every fiber of the economy. We just had/still in a oil spike.

The thing is. The U.S. unlike since 1970/2008 is a net exporter of oil now. So the U.S. will come out of recession faster, and do better. Than China, Japan and Europe.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,102
  • Apr 30, 2022 12:56pm Apr 30, 2022 12:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
Oil has a banana peel about 95.93.. It has recovered each time there. But if it cant get above and hold/close above 110.74. It will slip back to 95.93. If it cant hold 95.93 (-95.93 starts closing) .. It think it will drop. {image}
wti probable pa , top to clear first , likely try test 92.29 before 119 + again , and or breaks and hold to test limit down 94.95 and low target , common for both option
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: WTIDaily.png Size: 35 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #100,103
  • Apr 30, 2022 1:26pm Apr 30, 2022 1:26pm
Quoting fontu
{quote} wti probable pa , top to clear first , likely try test 92.29 before 119 + again , and or breaks and hold to test limit down 94.95 and low target , common for both option {image}
if oil price goes up - recession is not that bad - if the price of oil goes down there are many scenarios
recession, end of war ...

but i don't believe there is a scenario where prices go up just because there are war tensions.

war is hitting the economy through inflation and risk off - so if prices go up i think at least now it's a indicator that things are not deteriorating so fast

also - China is hopefully beyond lockdowns so better news to come.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #100,104
  • Apr 30, 2022 6:43pm Apr 30, 2022 6:43pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} if oil price goes up - recession is not that bad - if the price of oil goes down there are many scenarios recession, end of war ... but i don't believe there is a scenario where prices go up just because there are war tensions. war is hitting the economy through inflation and risk off - so if prices go up i think at least now it's a indicator that things are not deteriorating so fast also - China is hopefully beyond lockdowns so better news to come.
Last week China was expanding lockdowns. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/...te-2022-04-30/
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,105
  • Apr 30, 2022 7:55pm Apr 30, 2022 7:55pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Last week China was expanding lockdowns. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/...te-2022-04-30/
it's not new
today they reported lower numbers and by Monday they will open more business.

i think peak is already behind us. seen some projections that in more or less a week things will look a lot better than today
we will see
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #100,106
  • Apr 30, 2022 8:21pm Apr 30, 2022 8:21pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} it's not new today they reported lower numbers and by Monday they will open more business. i think peak is already behind us. seen some projections that in more or less a week things will look a lot better than today we will see
Still the food issue not going away. That is 15 hs old by Reuters. I don't know about China. I know in the U.S. the numbers are always lower on the weekends. They spike on Tuesday. Less gathering numbers, with some offices closed on the weekend in the U.S.

"
BEIJING, April 30 (Reuters) - China's factory activity contracted at a steeper pace in April as widespread COVID-19 lockdowns halted industrial production and disrupted supply chains, raising fears of a sharp economic slowdown in the second quarter that will weigh on global growth.
The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 47.4 in April from 49.5 in March, in a second straight month of contraction, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Saturday. That was the lowest since February 2020. read more
A Reuters poll had expected the PMI to ease to 48, well below the 50-point mark that separates contraction from growth on a monthly basis."
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,107
  • Apr 30, 2022 8:34pm Apr 30, 2022 8:34pm
Copper inventory's are rising since March. Price is falling. Both due to a slowdown in demand. Mines will start to curtail. This could be seen long before the other signs from China or the U.S. When you see the stock pile start to shrink, and the price falls. Hang on to your ass..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 65 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,108
  • Apr 30, 2022 8:38pm Apr 30, 2022 8:38pm
Quoting gatorinla
Copper inventory's are rising since March. Price is falling. Both due to a slowdown in demand. Mines will start to curtail. This could be seen long before the other signs from China or the U.S. When you see the stock pile start to shrink, and the price falls. Hang on to your ass.. {image}
5 year chart.. Notice the inventory trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 88 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,109
  • May 1, 2022 9:59am May 1, 2022 9:59am
Quoting gatorinla
I tweaked the levels some. I added some levels. The yellow is inside, so less important over the blue. It may still have some s/r value for entries or tp. The green is the trend side. Gold is north of 1873.57, but South of 1980.24. Near 1873.57 is the better long.. Near 1980.24 the better short. If that makes sense. Atm pa is near the middle of them. Inside those levels is the yellow lines. Closer to 1935.14 is bearish, with 0873.57 still as support. Above, near 1935.14 is more bullish toward 1980.24. Having a close helps.. {image}...
I tweaked the levels back to original post. I use 1873.x and 1980.x,, These others are inside. So they are not as strong.

But here it is.. Inside trading is less reliable. I have too many variable's. So i will use the greater levels of the 2 options. 1*If gold closes below 1895.75. That favors a drop toward 1873. If it later closes below 1873.57 (green levels) That would indicate a b/o to a further drop. At that point 1873.57 is R, until it starts closing back above 1873.57.

I'm not biased to anything until a close or rejection. My bias is to make money. So yes at/near 1873.57 a long can be taken. With a early possible moving target of 1928.90 or more. This long trade was taken by some of us blindly. Nothing new here. (I said the same about a drop when it/if closes below 1980.24, long before it went that high) Now what to do? I gave option 1*. 2* Friday's close was above 1895.75, it was also above 1895.95. For longs I will focus on closes above it as bullish. Closes between 1895.75 and 1895.95 as more neutral. Since Friday closed above 1895.95. I will go with that and look to tp 1926.90, 1927.31. If I was gold bug it would be higher. But i'm not a investor in gold. Just a simple minded trader. A stronger USD should hurt gold. Higher food cost should hurt gold. Higher food can hurt gold in 2 ways. Less demand from China and India. Those 2 countries are by far the highest hoarders of gold. Because of cultural customs. I'm talking about fundis and techs at the same time. They don't align here. So either with a close below 1895.73, or a test of 1926.90/1927.31. Gold has a chance to be sold. As long as the place you sell is closing below that closer level. A possible buy if price continues to close above 1895.95 like it did Friday. With that limited stop loss. So if anyone took the long at 1873.57, just know the closes below 1995.75 can bring a goose egg. I don't know if it can get back to 1927.31 or 1926.90. But if one gets a short signal there. It may be worth a 2 or 3 bucks in the s/l to reach 1907, or even 1873.x maybe more.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 35 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,110
  • May 1, 2022 10:26am May 1, 2022 10:26am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I tweaked the levels back to original post. I use 1873.x and 1980.x,, These others are inside. So they are not as strong. But here it is.. Inside trading is less reliable. I have too many variable's. So i will use the greater levels of the 2 options. 1*If gold closes below 1895.75. That favors a drop toward 1873. If it later closes below 1873.57 (green levels) That would indicate a b/o to a further drop. At that point 1873.57 is R, until it starts closing back above 1873.57. I'm not biased to anything until a close or rejection. My bias...
Gold may be at a pivotal place. I meant as individual people on the middle class or lower class (cultural rings and such, not governments). " Those 2 countries are by far the highest hoarders of gold"
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 35 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,111
  • May 1, 2022 4:51pm May 1, 2022 4:51pm
This can apply to those trading with the inability to wait for a level. This can be detrimental in trading. FOMO is real. Get your arms around it, fix it. Its stopping you from being rich. Its between you and your dreams. Don't let it win.

https://www.macmillandictionary.com/.../american/fomo
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,112
  • May 1, 2022 6:05pm May 1, 2022 6:05pm
Quoting gatorinla
This can apply to those trading with the inability to wait for a level. This can be detrimental in trading. FOMO is real. Get your arms around it, fix it. Its stopping you from being rich. Its between you and your dreams. Don't let it win. https://www.macmillandictionary.com/.../american/fomo
Are you trying to imply this about someone?
how about 'YOLO"? ...lol...
  • #100,113
  • May 1, 2022 6:32pm May 1, 2022 6:32pm
Eu Didn't close below .0506.8. However it still very bearish. I put st levels and day, week, and month on this chart. St 0531.7 and 0551 break and close are st direction. Closing below R may be st bearish tops. Below 0488 has some room to run. The larger tf are labeled.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 28 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,114
  • May 1, 2022 6:40pm May 1, 2022 6:40pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Are you trying to imply this about someone? how about 'YOLO"? ...lol...
You know what "They" say. If the drawers fit. You got a big ass.
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,115
  • May 1, 2022 6:59pm May 1, 2022 6:59pm
Quoting gatorinla
Eu Didn't close below .0506.8. However it still very bearish. I put st levels and day, week, and month on this chart. St 0531.7 and 0551 break and close are st direction. Closing below R may be st bearish tops. Below 0488 has some room to run. The larger tf are labeled. {image}
CADCHF on another level today
  • #100,116
  • May 1, 2022 7:42pm May 1, 2022 7:42pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} CADCHF on another level today
I will post some R
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,117
  • May 1, 2022 7:43pm May 1, 2022 7:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
Eu Didn't close below .0506.8. However it still very bearish. I put st levels and day, week, and month on this chart. St 0531.7 and 0551 break and close are st direction. Closing below R may be st bearish tops. Below 0488 has some room to run. The larger tf are labeled. {image}
st
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 15 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,118
  • May 1, 2022 7:45pm May 1, 2022 7:45pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I will post some R
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 23 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,119
  • May 1, 2022 7:56pm May 1, 2022 7:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} {image}
Selling under 75545 (15 m) closes under and buying above ->

I see what your saying now I will watch for pullback.. and keep it tight
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2022-05-01 205619.jpg Size: 12 KB
  • #100,120
  • May 1, 2022 8:06pm May 1, 2022 8:06pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} Selling under 75545 (15 m) closes under and buying above -> I see what your saying now I will watch for pullback.. and keep it tight {image}
7592/93 has st R.. -7555 may be bearish st. close +7593 or -7555 may run// But .7548.9 is S Wait for it too.. After 7502.. Later .7408. I already posted the R. -.7371 may be a good day close for bears
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
21 traders viewing now