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The Swamp

  • #100,061
  • Apr 29, 2022 3:24am Apr 29, 2022 3:24am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1926.9 may resist some. But it could run back to 1980.. I need to look again..
imo all look the same. now. i mean there some dollar selling across the board
like big time because even UJ is coming down

so either something forced for options and end of the month

of course just like you said a lot of accounts maybe hedge funds also been liquidated. so there a empty space now on sellers.

I would say window dressing, will be very important now.

Expect dumb headlines. everyone is affected about dollar strength . Q2 end will be vital - no way we can have the dollar so strong by the end of Q

of course i am saying what people and companies think. if war escalates any targets are pointless.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #100,062
  • Apr 29, 2022 3:49am Apr 29, 2022 3:49am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} imo all look the same. now. i mean there some dollar selling across the board like big time because even UJ is coming down so either something forced for options and end of the month of course just like you said a lot of accounts maybe hedge funds also been liquidated. so there a empty space now on sellers. I would say window dressing, will be very important now. Expect dumb headlines. everyone is affected about dollar strength . Q2 end will be vital - no way we can have the dollar so strong by the end of Q of course i am saying what people...
The winter grain harvest is in June. Ukraine expects a food shortage . So they halted grain exports to feed themselves. Mean while Russia is targeting the storage of grain and other food in Ukraine. Add in some sanctions from the West on Russian exports like wheat.

If you thought you would need to buy food later (buy anything). What currency would you prefer to buy it with? Figure that one out. You will know what currency is being held for future purchases.

Of course its not going to be a straight line. I posted USD R yesterday. The month has to close above that level (for bulls). The eu below 0516, 05 0486 and stronger 0452. When pa was above 0516/18 it may be bullish. that's why today can be volatile. After today closes, things may be more clear. That's why i posted it before the movement. Before the month closed. To show what favored the bears or bulls.

It can run up 100 pips or even more today. But where it closes matters.. The close may be below 0505 0486 0452 I said it needs large closes, and even a week close is small..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,063
  • Apr 29, 2022 4:12am Apr 29, 2022 4:12am
Not an opinion. Closing above these, are highest closes in nearly 20 years. So is a EU close below 0505. At close today, The usd may close above multi decade closes. The eu may close below multi decade lows. Yes it may turn here. But why, for more than a bounce? What has changed fundamentally?

They cut out the cancer in your 98 year old grandpa. Grandpa is still 98 years old.

If the eu closes below 0486 today. A bounce to 0835.5 is low odds. 1/2 way is 0660. 0573 is 1/4 of the way.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,064
  • Apr 29, 2022 4:20am Apr 29, 2022 4:20am
Quoting gatorinla
Not an opinion. Closing above these, are highest closes in nearly 20 years. So is a EU close below 0505. At close today, The usd may close above multi decade closes. The eu may close below multi decade lows. Yes it may turn here. But why, for more than a bounce? What has changed fundamentally? They cut out the cancer in your 98 year old grandpa. Grandpa is still 98 years old. If the eu closes below 0486 today. A bounce to 0835.5 is low odds. 1/2 way is 0660. 0573 is 1/4 of the way. {image}
I long some Eur at break out 0570s.. long gold at retrace 1913
  • #100,065
  • Apr 29, 2022 4:34am Apr 29, 2022 4:34am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I long some Eur at break out 0570s.. long gold at retrace 1913
Usisng the same chart for close direction., If it cant close above 1926.90 it will drop. Or the same with 1935.19. Or if the closes are above. Its more likely to be bullish. The close range being 1980.24 to 1873.57. With a bullish USD The upper range may contract to 1919.42. This is for closes. It may overshoot. The close are what these tend to contain.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,066
  • Apr 29, 2022 4:46am Apr 29, 2022 4:46am
Change today's # 0505.. Use 0506.8 in its place.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,067
  • Apr 29, 2022 4:52am Apr 29, 2022 4:52am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I long some Eur at break out 0570s.. long gold at retrace 1913
I left you a cup of fresh in the pot. Back to bed for me. I took out the garbage. Those onions you cut were getting ripe in the can. Oh, you need some batteries for the trash lid.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,068
  • Apr 29, 2022 5:22am Apr 29, 2022 5:22am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I left you a cup of fresh in the pot. Back to bed for me. I took out the garbage. Those onions you cut were getting ripe in the can. Oh, you need some batteries for the trash lid.
what???.. you are dreaming again...
  • #100,069
  • Apr 29, 2022 5:34am Apr 29, 2022 5:34am
Try some US30 long here 33775..stop loss 33400
  • #100,070
  • Apr 29, 2022 5:48am Apr 29, 2022 5:48am
Quoting Boulder
will add...Gator is sexy
LOL
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,071
  • Apr 29, 2022 5:53am Apr 29, 2022 5:53am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} LOL
omg.. what a hacker you are!! when did you hack my computer? you are so naughty and funny, give me a good laugh.. thanks
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  • #100,072
  • Apr 29, 2022 5:57am Apr 29, 2022 5:57am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} omg.. what a hacker you are!! when did you hack my computer? you are so naughty and funny, give me a good laugh.. thanks {image}
Kilroy was here.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,073
  • Apr 29, 2022 6:00am Apr 29, 2022 6:00am
Quoting Boulder
Try some US30 long here 33775..stop loss 33400
maybe a bad idea... but add pending 33650
  • #100,074
  • Apr 29, 2022 6:22am Apr 29, 2022 6:22am
wow..I guess he has to so he can buy twitter

Musk reports sale of 3.15 million tesla shares, worth about $2.82 billion
  • #100,075
  • Apr 29, 2022 6:34am Apr 29, 2022 6:34am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The winter grain harvest is in June. Ukraine expects a food shortage . So they halted grain exports to feed themselves. Mean while Russia is targeting the storage of grain and other food in Ukraine. Add in some sanctions from the West on Russian exports like wheat. If you thought you would need to buy food later (buy anything). What currency would you prefer to buy it with? Figure that one out. You will know what currency is being held for future purchases. Of course its not going to be a straight line. I posted USD R yesterday. The month...

yes Gator but markets are moved over flows of money, on short term anything can happen - whatever the price they want
after so many years i got to the conclusion that at least in the short time, market can take you anywhere over the long term yes i think trend is clear. and it would mean something maybe impossible to happen to change the trend. maybe the war to stop for now. but even if war stops. .... no one will believe we are going back to globalisation and free money
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #100,076
  • Apr 29, 2022 6:57am Apr 29, 2022 6:57am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Your watching live with me.. The first touch of 1919.47 i don't know if it will react. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLUb5MExJsU {image}
Gold hits your number 1919.. unfortunately I booked all my gold longs already ...
  • #100,077
  • Apr 29, 2022 7:18am Apr 29, 2022 7:18am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} yes Gator but markets are moved over flows of money, on short term anything can happen - whatever the price they want after so many years i got to the conclusion that at least in the short time, market can take you anywhere over the long term yes i think trend is clear. and it would mean something maybe impossible to happen to change the trend. maybe the war to stop for now. but even if war stops. .... no one will believe we are going back to globalisation and free money
It all depends on what time frame one uses. I just didn't see a usd selloff then. I thought it was too early to think that.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,078
  • Apr 29, 2022 7:22am Apr 29, 2022 7:22am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Your watching live with me.. The first touch of 1919.47 i don't know if it will react. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLUb5MExJsU {image}
This is the gold reaction. No smoke, no mirror, no repaint. No opinion, just math,
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,079
  • Apr 29, 2022 7:35am Apr 29, 2022 7:35am
Quoting Boulder
Try some US30 long here 33775..stop loss 33400
flat all US30 trades
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  • #100,080
  • Apr 29, 2022 7:38am Apr 29, 2022 7:38am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Its looking pretty bullish if closing the month above 103.45.. {image} {image}
I want to humbly say. Try to see the closes above these levels as bullish on the usd. Even if these closes miss this month. If nothing changes fundamentally. Eventually they will hold.

Eu closing below 0506.8 today is not eu bullish. If it closes below 0486. The chances of seeing 1.0835.5 again in a long time are very low. At least till something fundamentally changes. Like a trillion barrels of oil found in Berlin.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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